Wyoming high school football playoff scenarios entering Week 8, 2021

Here’s a quick look at the playoff scenarios for Wyoming high school football teams entering Week 8 of the 2021 season:

Class 4A
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Campbell County at Kelly Walsh; Cheyenne South at Natrona; Laramie at Cheyenne Central; Rock Springs at Cheyenne East; Sheridan at Thunder Basin.
Cheyenne East: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Rock Springs: In. No. 1 seed with victory and Thunder Basin victory. No. 2 seed with victory and Sheridan victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Sheridan victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and Thunder Basin victory.
Sheridan: In. No. 1 seed with victory and Rock Springs victory. No. 2 seed with victory and East victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and East victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Rock Springs victory.
Thunder Basin: In. No. 2 seed with victory and Rock Springs victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and East victory. No. 4 seed with loss and South victory. No. 5 seed with loss and Natrona victory.
Natrona: In. No. 4 seed with victory and Sheridan victory. No. 5 seed with victory and Thunder Basin victory. No. 5 seed with loss.
Campbell County, Kelly Walsh: In. No. 6 seed with victory. No. 7 seed with loss.
Cheyenne Central, Laramie: Neither in nor out. No. 8 seed with victory. Out with loss.
Cheyenne South: Out.

Here’s a breakdown of how the seeding would go for the top five seeds with the three games in play:

If Natrona beats South
Teams	East	Rock Springs	Sheridan	Thunder Basin	Natrona
Rock Springs, Sheridan win	3	2	1	5	4
Rock Springs, Thunder Basin win	3	1	4	2	5
East, Sheridan win	1	3	2	5	4
East, Thunder Basin win	1	4	3	2	5
If South beats Natrona
Teams	East	Rock Springs	Sheridan	Thunder Basin	Natrona
Rock Springs, Sheridan win	3	2	1	4	5
Rock Springs, Thunder Basin win	3	1	4	2	5
East, Sheridan win	1	3	2	4	5
East, Thunder Basin win	1	4	3	2	5

Score differential tiebreaker (updated 10-21): If Thunder Basin, Sheridan and Rock Springs tied for the 2-3-4 seeds… Thunder Basin would have the victory against the highest-ranking non-tied team (East), so would be the No. 2 seed. Sheridan then is the No. 3 seed due to head-to-head victory over Rock Springs, which would be seeded fourth. Thanks to Nash in the comments for correcting the error I had previously listed in this scenario.

Class 3A East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Douglas at Worland; Lander at Buffalo.
Douglas: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss and Lander victory. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with loss and Buffalo victory.
Buffalo: In. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with victory and Worland victory. No. 2 seed with victory and Douglas victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with loss and Douglas victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Worland victory.
Worland: In. No. 1 seed with victory and Lander victory. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with victory and Buffalo victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with loss and Lander victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Buffalo victory.
Lander: In. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with victory and Douglas victory. No. 3 seed with victory and Worland victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Rawlins, Riverton: Out.
Score differential tiebreakers:
Scenario 1: If Buffalo, Worland and Lander tied for the 2-3-4 seeds… Lander would have to defeat Buffalo by 10 or more points to win the No. 2 seed (Lander +3, Buffalo +2, Worland -5). Buffalo would be the No. 3 seed by virtue of its head-to-head victory over Worland, which would be the fourth seed. … If Lander won by nine or fewer points, Buffalo would be the No. 2 seed. Worland would be the No. 3 seed with a head-to-head victory over Lander, which would be the No. 4 seed.
Scenario 2: If Douglas, Buffalo and Worland tied for the 1-2-3 seeds… Worland would have to beat Douglas by at least 12 points to force a coin flip for the 1-2-3 seeds. A Worland victory by 11 or fewer points would give Douglas the point differential tiebreaker and the No. 1 seed. Buffalo would then be the No. 2 seed due to its victory against Worland.

Class 3A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Evanston at Powell; Jackson at Cody.
Cody, Jackson: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss.
Star Valley: In. No. 3 seed.
Evanston, Powell: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory. Out with loss.
Green River: Out.

Class 2A East
Week 8 games potentially affecting playoff seeding: Burns at Torrington; Tongue River at Glenrock; Upton-Sundance at Big Horn; Wheatland at Newcastle.
Torrington: In. No. 1 seed.
Wheatland: Neither in nor out. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Upton-Sundance victory. Get in a messy tie with loss and Big Horn victory (see below).
Upton-Sundance: Neither in nor out. No. 2 seed with victory and Newcastle victory. No. 3 seed with victory and Wheatland victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Wheatland victory. Get in a messy tie with loss and Newcastle victory (see below).
Big Horn: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with victory and Wheatland victory. Get in a messy tie with victory and Newcastle victory (see below). Get in a messy tie with loss and Wheatland victory (see below). Either out or in a messy tie (see below) with loss and Wheatland victory.
Newcastle: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with victory and Upton-Sundance victory. Get in a messy tie with victory and Big Horn victory (see below). Get in a messy tie or out with loss and Upton-Sundance victory (see below). Out with loss and Big Horn victory.
Burns: Neither in nor out. Need a victory, a Tongue River victory, an Upton-Sundance victory and a Wheatland victory to get in a messy tie (see below). Out in all other scenarios.
Tongue River: Neither in nor out. Need a victory, a Burns victory, an Upton-Sundance victory and a Wheatland victory to get in a messy tie (see below). Out in all other scenarios.
Glenrock: Out.
Here are the 2A East scenarios for Week 8. They involve the potential for two four-way tiebreakers, which would be broken with a method TBD, as well as a three-way tiebreaker to be broken by either point differential or coin flip:

If Tongue River beats Glenrock…	Wheatland	Upton-Sundance	Big Horn	Newcastle	Burns	Tongue River
Burns, U-S, Wheatland win	2	3	tie 4-out-out-out	tie 4-out-out-out	out (even in tie)	tie 4-out-out-out	Scenario 1
Burns, U-S, Newcastle win	4	2	out	3	out	out
Burns, Big Horn, Wheatland win	2	4	3	out	out	out
Burns, Big Horn, Newcastle win	2	4	3	out	out	out	Scenario 2
Torrington, U-S, Wheatland win	2	3	4	out	out	out	Scenario 3
Torrington, U-S, Newcastle win	4	2	out	3	out	out
Torrington, Big Horn, Wheatland win	2	4	3	out	out	out
Torrington, Big Horn, Newcastle win	2	4	3	out	out	out	Scenario 2
If Glenrock beats Tongue River…	Wheatland	Upton-Sundance	Big Horn	Newcastle	Burns	Tongue River
Burns, U-S, Wheatland win	2	3	4	out	out	out	Scenario 4
Burns, U-S, Newcastle win	4	2	out	3	out	out
Burns, Big Horn, Wheatland win	2	4	3	out	out	out
Burns, Big Horn, Newcastle win	2	4	3	out	out	out	Scenario 2
Torrington, U-S, Wheatland win	2	3	4	out	out	out
Torrington, U-S, Newcastle win	4	2	out	3	out	out
Torrington, Big Horn, Wheatland win	2	4	3	out	out	out
Torrington, Big Horn, Newcastle win	2	4	3	out	out	out	Scenario 2

Tiebreaker scenarios:
Scenario 1: Where Big Horn, Burns, Newcastle and Tongue River tie for the fourth and final spot, Burns would be 0-3 against the other three teams and would be eliminated from the tiebreaker. The remaining three teams would have their tie broken by a coin flip, with the odd team out and the head-to-head winner of the remaining teams taking the spot in the playoffs. (Four-way ties do not revert to three-way ties in cases like this.) Thanks to WHSAA Associate Commissioner Trevor Wilson for clarification on this tiebreaker.
Scenario 2 (updated 10-21): Where Wheatland, Upton-Sundance, Big Horn and Newcastle tie for the 2-3-4 spots and one team finishing out, the four-way tiebreaking instructions would be used. In a case where two teams are 2-1 and the other two are 1-2 against each other, the two 2-1 teams would take the top two seeds, with the head-to-head result determining the higher seed. In this situation, Wheatland and Big Horn would be seeded 2 and 3, as both are 2-1 and Wheatland will have defeated Big Horn. Then Upton-Sundance and Newcastle, the two 1-2 teams, would have Upton-Sundance seeded fourth and Newcastle out due to the head-to-head victory. Thanks to WHSAA Associate Commissioner Trevor Wilson for further clarification on this tiebreaker.
Scenario 3: Where Big Horn, Newcastle and Tongue River tie for the fourth and final spot, Big Horn would win a score differential tiebreaker (Big Horn +11, Tongue River -2, Newcastle -9).
Scenario 4: Where Big Horn, Newcastle and Burns tie for the fourth and final spot, Big Horn gains the No. 4 seed with head-to-head victories over both.

Class 2A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Big Piney at Kemmerer; Lovell at Cokeville.
Lyman: In. No. 1 seed.
Lovell: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Kemmerer victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and Big Piney victory.
Cokeville: In. No. 2 seed with victory and Kemmerer victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Big Piney victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Big Piney: In. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Cokeville victory. No. 3 seed with Lovell victory, regardless of win or loss. No. 4 seed with loss and Cokeville victory.
Thermopolis, Kemmerer, Mountain View, Pinedale: Out.
Score differential tiebreaker: If Lovell, Cokeville and Big Piney all tie for the 2-3-4 seeds… Cokeville would have to defeat Lovell by 10 or more points to secure the No. 2 seed. If that happens, Cokeville will be 2, and Lovell will be No. 3 by virtue of the head-to-head victory against Big Piney, which will be fourth. … If Cokeville wins by nine or fewer, Lovell will win the score differential tiebreaker, with Big Piney getting the No. 3 seed with the head-to-head victory over Cokeville, which would be the fourth seed. A coin flip wouldn’t be used, since it’s mathematically impossible to finish with a tied score differential given the two existing final scores.

Class 1A nine-man East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Wright at Southeast.
Pine Bluffs: In. No. 1 seed.
Lusk: In. No. 2 seed.
Southeast, Wright: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Lingle, Saratoga: Out.
Moorcroft: Ineligible.

Class 1A nine-man West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Shoshoni at Riverside; Wind River at Wyoming Indian (both Thursday).
Shoshoni: In. No. 1 seed.
Rocky Mountain: In. No. 2 seed.
Wind River: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Shoshoni victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Riverside victory.
Riverside: In. No. 3 seed with victory and Wyoming Indian victory. No. 4 seed with victory and Wind River victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Greybull, St. Stephens, Wyoming Indian: Out.

Class 1A six-man East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Midwest at Guernsey; Kaycee at Hanna (Saturday).
Hulett: In. No. 1 seed.
Guernsey: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Hanna victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with loss and Kaycee victory.
Midwest: Neither in nor out. No. 2 seed with victory and Hanna victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with victory and Kaycee victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Hanna victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Kaycee victory.
Kaycee: Neither in nor out. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential/coin flip to break) with victory and Midwest victory. No. 3 seed with victory and Guernsey victory. Out with loss.
Hanna: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory. Out with loss.
Score differential tiebreakers:
Scenario 1: If Midwest, Kaycee and Guernsey tied for the 2-3-4 seeds… Midwest would have to defeat Guernsey by six or more points to win the No. 2 seed (Midwest 1, Guernsey 1, Kaycee -2, with Midwest winning the head-to-head tie for the second seed; Midwest wins the differential outright by winning by seven or more). Guernsey would be the No. 3 seed by virtue of its head-to-head victory over Kaycee, which would be fourth. … If Midwest won by five or fewer points, Guernsey would win the score differential and be the No. 2 seed. Kaycee would be No. 3 with its head-to-head victory over Midwest, and Midwest would be seeded No. 4.
Scenario 2: If Midwest, Hanna and Kaycee tied for the final two seeds… Midwest would win the score differential tiebreaker in all scenarios. Hanna can’t catch Midwest (current score differential Midwest +7, Kaycee +5, Hanna -12). Midwest would win the score differential tiebreaker, and Hanna would be the No. 4 seed by virtue of the head-to-head victory over Kaycee, no matter the margin.

Class 1A six-man West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: none.
Snake River: In. No. 1 seed.
Encampment: In. No. 2 seed.
Meeteetse: In. No. 3 seed.
Dubois: In. No. 4 seed.
Burlington, Farson: Out.
Even with two conference games this weekend, seeds are set. Snake River, even with a loss, wins all tiebreakers with Encampment; Encampment, even with a loss, wins all tiebreakers with Meeteetse; Farson, even with a victory, loses all tiebreakers with Dubois. There are no potential three-way ties that could happen in the conference standings.

–patrick

Note: Post updated 3:27 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 16, to update 1A six-man East scenarios. Post updated 4:32 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 16, to update 1A six-man West scenarios. Post updated 9:44 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 16, to update 2A East scenarios. Post updated 3:06 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 19, with updated 2A East four-way tiebreaker scenarios. Post updated 4:51 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 19, with updated 2A West tiebreakers after result of Thermopolis/Big Piney game. Post updated 2:15 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 21, to reflect correction to error in 4A tiebreaker and additional guidance from the WHSAA office regarding the 2A East four-way tiebreaker possibilities.