Wyoming high school football playoff scenarios entering Week 8, 2024

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Here are the playoff scenarios for all classifications of Wyoming high school football entering Week 8 of the 2024 season:

Class 4A
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Cheyenne Central at Natrona; Cheyenne East at Campbell County; Cheyenne South at Thunder Basin; Rock Springs at Kelly Walsh; Sheridan at Laramie.
Sheridan: In. No. 1 seed.
Campbell County, Cheyenne East: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Natrona: In. No. 4 seed.
Rock Springs: In. Between the No. 5 and No. 7 seed.
Thunder Basin: In. Between the No. 5 and No. 8 seed.
Kelly Walsh: Neither in nor out. Between the No. 5 seed and out.
Cheyenne Central: Neither in nor out. Between the No. 6 seed and out.
Laramie: Neither in nor out. Between the No. 7 seed and out.
Cheyenne South: Out.

Get ready… here are the Class 4A scenarios for seeds 5-8:

If Thunder Basin beats SouthKWRSTBLarCC 
Central, Rock Springs, Sheridan win865out7 
Central, Rock Springs, Laramie winout6578*scenario 1
Central, Kelly Walsh, Sheridan win576out8 
Central, Kelly Walsh, Laramie win5768out*scenario 2
Natrona, Rock Springs win (Sheridan-Laramie is moot)7658out 
Natrona, Kelly Walsh win (Sheridan-Laramie is moot)5768out
If South beats Thunder BasinKWRSTBLarCC 
Central, Rock Springs, Sheridan win758out6*scenario 3
Central, Rock Springs, Laramie win6578out*scenario 4
Central, Kelly Walsh, Sheridan win576out8*scenario 5
Central, Kelly Walsh, Laramie win5768out*scenario 6
Natrona, Rock Springs, Sheridan win6578out 
Natrona, Rock Springs, Laramie win6578out*scenario 7
Natrona, Kelly Walsh, Sheridan win5768out 
Natrona, Kelly Walsh, Laramie win5768out*scenario 8

Tiebreaker scenario 1: If Central, Kelly Walsh and Laramie tie for the 7-8-out seeds, Laramie would have the victory against the highest-ranked non-tied team (Sheridan) for the No. 7 seed, and Central would beat Kelly Walsh for the head-to-head tiebreaker for the No. 8 seed.
Tiebreaker scenario 2: If Central, Rock Springs and Laramie tie for the 7-8-out seeds, Rock Springs would have two head-to-head victories against the other teams, earning the No. 7 seed. Laramie would have the No. 8 seed with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Central.
Tiebreaker scenario 3: If Central, Thunder Basin and Kelly Walsh tie for the 6-7-8 seeds, Central would have the victory against the highest-ranked non-tied team (Natrona) for the No. 6 seed, and Kelly Walsh would have the head-to-head tiebreaker to decide the No. 7 and 8 seeds.
Tiebreaker scenario 4: If Thunder Basin, Kelly Walsh, Laramie and Central tie for the 6-7-8-out seeds… it gets messy. Wyoming has never had a four-way tie in conference standings, so this would be unprecedented. WHSAA guidelines state in a four-way tie, the highest-ranking non-tied victory rule isn’t used, with head-to-head records among the four teams the first step in the tiebreaker. KW and Thunder Basin would each be 2-1 in the head-to-head, with KW earning the No. 6 seed with the head-to-head win against Thunder Basin. Then we revert to a three-way tiebreaker between the three remaining schools. Thunder Basin would be the No. 7 seed with victories over the remaining two teams. Laramie would then be No. 8 with the head-to-head victory against Central.
Tiebreaker scenario 5: If Thunder Basin, Rock Springs and Central tie for the 6-7-8 seeds, Thunder Basin would have head-to-head tiebreakers against both to earn the No. 6 seed. Rock Springs would have the No. 7 seed with the head-to-head tiebreaker against Central.
Tiebreaker scenario 6: If Thunder Basin, Rock Springs, Laramie and Central tie for the 6-7-8-out seeds… again, an unprecedented four-way tie. Thunder Basin, with a 3-0 mark against all the others, would be the No. 6 seed. Rock Springs would be No. 7 with victories against the remaining two teams, and Laramie would be the No. 8 seed with a head-to-head victory against Central.
Tiebreaker scenario 7: If Thunder Basin, Kelly Walsh and Laramie tie for the 6-7-8 seeds, Kelly Walsh would be the No. 6 seed due to victories over both of the other teams. Thunder Basin would be No. 7 due to its head-to-head victory against Laramie, which would be seeded No. 8.
Tiebreaker scenario 8: If Thunder Basin, Rock Springs and Laramie tie for the 6-7-8 seeds, Thunder Basin would be the No. 6 seed due to victories over both of the other teams. Rock Springs would be No. 7 due to its head-to-head victory against Laramie, which would be seeded No. 8.

Class 3A East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Buffalo at Lander; Riverton at Rawlins; Torrington at Douglas.
Douglas: In. No. 1 seed with victory. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential to break, seeded either 1 or 3) with loss and Riverton victory. No. 2 seed with loss and Rawlins victory.
Torrington: In. No. 1 seed with victory and Rawlins victory. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential to break, seeded either 2 or 3) with victory and Riverton victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Riverton: In. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential to break, seeded either 1 or 2) with victory and Torrington victory. No. 2 seed with Douglas victory, win or lose. No. 3 seed with loss and Torrington victory.
Buffalo, Lander: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory. Out with loss.
Rawlins: Out.
In case of a Douglas-Torrington-Riverton tie for the 1-2-3 seeds, score differential will be used to break the tie. Current differential is Douglas +7, Riverton +5, Torrington -12. If Torrington wins by one or two points, Douglas would win the tiebreaker and the No. 1 seed, with Riverton earning the No. 2 seed with a head-to-head victory against Torrington, which would be seeded No. 3. If Torrington wins by three or more points, Riverton would earn the No. 1 seed, and then Torrington would be seeded No. 2 with a head-to-head victory over Douglas, which would be seeded No. 3.

Class 3A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Powell at Evanston.
Star Valley: In. No. 1 seed.
Cody: In. No. 2 seed.
Evanston, Powell: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Green River, Jackson: Out.
In a scenario where Jackson ties either Evanston or Powell, or both, Jackson loses all head-to-head tiebreakers. Similarly, if Cody ties with Evanston or Powell, Cody wins all head-to-head tiebreakers.

Class 2A East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Moorcroft at Burns; Newcastle at Wheatland.
Big Horn: In. No. 1 seed.
Newcastle: In. No. 2 seed with victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and Burns victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Moorcroft victory.
Burns: In. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Wheatland victory. No. 3 seed with Newcastle victory, win or lose. No. 4 seed with loss and Wheatland victory.
Wheatland: In. No. 2 seed with victory and Moorcroft victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Burns victory. No. 4 seed with Newcastle victory, win or lose.
Upton-Sundance, Moorcroft, Tongue River, Glenrock: Out.
In the scenario where Newcastle, Burns and Wheatland tie for the 2-3-4 seeds, score differential will be used as the tiebreaker. Current differentials are Newcastle +12, Burns -4, Wheatland -8. In this scenario, if Wheatland wins by nine or fewer, Newcastle wins the differential tiebreaker and earns the No. 2 seed, with Burns No. 3 and Wheatland No. 4 due to Burns’ head-to-head victory. If Wheatland wins by 10, Wheatland and Newcastle tie in the score differential, with Wheatland (I believe) winning the head-to-head tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed, and then Newcastle winning the No. 3 seed due to head-to-head over Burns. If Wheatland wins by 11 or more, Wheatland wins the score tiebreaker outright, with Newcastle No. 3 and Burns No. 4 in the head-to-head.
Upton-Sundance loses all potential tiebreakers with either Burns or Wheatland.

Class 2A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Cokeville at Lovell; Kemmerer at Worland; Lyman at Mountain View; Thermopolis at Pinedale.
Mountain View: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss.
Cokeville: In. No. 1 seed with victory and Lyman victory. No. 2 seed with victory and Mountain View victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Lovell: In. No. 1 seed with victory and Lyman victory. No. 2 seed with victory and Mountain View victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Worland: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory. Out with loss.
Thermopolis: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with Kemmerer victory. Out with Worland victory.
Kemmerer, Lyman, Pinedale: Out.
This gets a bit confusing, as Thermopolis (3-3), Worland (3-3) and Kemmerer (2-4) attempt to secure the No. 4 seed. By winning, Worland eliminates the possibility of a three-way tiebreaker and is the No. 4 seed regardless of whether Thermopolis wins or loses due to having the tiebreaker head-to-head victory. If Worland loses, though, Thermopolis is the No. 4 seed regardless of whether it wins or loses. In this scenario, one of two things happens — Thermopolis wins and earns the No. 4 seed outright, or Thermopolis loses and the teams (Worland, Thermopolis and Kemmerer) tie 4-out-out. In all situations where Thermopolis, Worland and Kemmerer tie for the No. 4 seed, Thermopolis wins the tiebreaker by having the victory over the highest-ranked non-tied team, which would be Mountain View. Kemmerer could tie both Worland and Thermopolis, but Kemmerer would lose all three-way ties with those two teams for the No. 4 seed.

Class 1A nine-man East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Lusk at Wright; Saratoga at Lingle; Southeast at Pine Bluffs.
Lingle: In. No. 1 seed.
Pine Bluffs: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Saratoga: In. No. 3 seed with victory and Pine Bluffs victory. No. 4 seed with Southeast victory, win or lose. No. 4 seed with loss.
Southeast: Neither in nor out. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Lingle victory. No. 4 seed with loss, Saratoga victory and Wright victory. Out with loss, Saratoga victory and Lusk victory.
Lusk: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory, Saratoga victory and Pine Bluffs victory. Out in all other scenarios, win or lose.
Wright, Guernsey: Out.
In scenarios where Saratoga, Southeast and Pine Bluffs tie for the No. 2-3-4 seeds, Southeast wins the tiebreaker with a 2-0 record head-to-head against the others. Pine Bluffs is the No. 3 seed with a head-to-head victory over Saratoga, which would be No. 4.
In scenarios where Lusk, Saratoga and Southeast tie for the 3-4-out seeds, Southeast wins the tiebreaker via score differential (Southeast +8, Lusk +1, Saratoga -9). Saratoga then earns the No. 4 seed with the head-to-head victory against Lusk.
Lusk only gets into the playoffs by tying Southeast alone for the No. 4 seed.

Class 1A nine-man West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Rocky Mountain at Wind River; Greybull at Wyoming Indian; Shoshoni at Big Piney.
Big Piney: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss and Wyoming Indian victory. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and Greybull victory.
Shoshoni: In. No. 1 seed with victory and Wyoming Indian victory. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Greybull victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Greybull: In. Tie for 1-2-3 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Shoshoni victory. No. 2 seed with Big Piney victory, win or lose. No. 3 seed with loss and Shoshoni victory.
Rocky Mountain, Wind River: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory. Out with loss.
Wyoming Indian: Out.
In the scenario where Big Piney, Shoshoni and Greybull tie for the 1-2-3 seeds, score differential will be used to break the tie. Current differentials are Big Piney +10, Greybull -5 and Shoshoni -5. If Shoshoni wins by seven or fewer points, Big Piney wins the scoring differential and will be the No. 1 seed, with Greybull the No. 2 due to the head-to-head victory against Shoshoni, which would be seeded No. 3. If Shoshoni wins by eight or more, Shoshoni wins the tiebreaker and the No. 1 seed by winning the scoring differential. Big Piney would be the No. 2 seed due to head-to-head against Greybull, which would be No. 3.

Class 1A six-man North
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Burlington at Midwest; Meeteetse at Riverside; Kaycee at Ten Sleep.
Burlington: In. No. 1 seed.
Riverside: In. Either No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
Midwest, Meeteetse, Kaycee: Neither in nor out. Seeding TBD in scenarios below.
Hulett, Ten Sleep: Out.

WinnersRiversideMidwestMeeteetseKaycee 
Burlington, Meeteetse, Kaycee342out 
Burlington, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep342out 
Burlington, Riverside, Kaycee2out43*scenario 1
Burlington, Riverside, Ten Sleep243out 
Midwest, Meeteetse, Kaycee342out*scenario 2
Midwest, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep342out*scenario 2
Midwest, Riverside, Kaycee23out4 
Midwest, Riverside, Ten Sleep234out

Tiebreaker scenario 1: In the scenario where Kaycee, Meeteetse and Midwest tie for the 3-4-out seeds, score differential would be used to break the tie. Differentials are Kaycee +9, Meeteetse 0, Midwest -9. Kaycee would be the No. 3 seed in winning the differential, and Meeteetse would be No. 4 with the head-to-head victory against Midwest.
Tiebreaker scenario 2: In the scenario where Meeteetse, Riverside and Midwest tie for the 2-3-4 seeds, Meeteetse would be the No. 2 seed by having a 2-0 record against the other two tied teams head-to-head. Riverside would be the No. 3 seed with a head-to-head victory against Midwest, which would be the No. 4 seed.

Class 1A six-man South
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Snake River at Encampment.
Encampment, Snake River: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss.
Dubois: In. No. 3 seed.
Farson: In. No. 4 seed.
Hanna, Casper Christian: Out.
Dubois wins its potential tiebreaker with Farson due to head-to-head victory.

If anything looks weird or incorrect, please let me know. Leave a comment here or email me at pschmiedt@yahoo.com. I’m indisposed on Saturday (the job that pays me…), but I’ll still have email access.

–patrick

Updated 11:30 p.m. MDT Saturday, Oct. 19, with 2A East and 1A nine-man West scenarios. Updated 11:49 p.m. MDT Saturday, Oct. 19, with Class 1A six-man scenarios for both conferences.

Week 4 picks: Three Wyoming coaches chase school records for victories

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Mountain View’s 42-35 Week 2 victory against Lovell was more than just an important 2A West victory for the Buffalos.

It also represented a changing of the guard atop the Buffalos’ school records.

With the victory, coach Brent Walk earned his 91st W as head coach at Mountain View. That surpassed the total of Don Dinnel, who led Mountain View to 90 victories in 14 seasons as the Buffalos’ head coach from 1989 to 2002.

Walk, now in his 13th season leading Mountain View, is now the all-time leader in victories in school history. He joins a group of 13 other Wyoming head coaches who are the career victory leaders at their schools.

By the end of this season, three other coaches could join that club.

In addition to Walk, the other school leaders, with their victory totals entering this week, are:

  • Steve Harsman, Natrona, 236
  • Chad Goff, Cheyenne East, 134
  • Larry Yeradi, Wright, 97
  • Dale Anderson, Lyman, 80
  • Andy Garland, Upton-Sundance, 79 (He has 113 total victories between Upton and Upton-Sundance.)
  • Will Gray, Pine Bluffs, 72
  • Jack Cobb, Snake River, 61
  • Matt Conzelman, Newcastle, 59
  • Trent Pikula, Thunder Basin, 52
  • Trent Aagard, Burlington, 49
  • Zack Scott, Hanna, 40
  • Kegan Willford, Encampment, 35
  • Ryan Harrison, Casper Christian, 6

The coaches within striking distance of their school records this year are Cheyenne South’s Eli Moody, Kaycee’s Dave Largent and Star Valley’s McKay Young — and they’re all approaching their records from different angles.

Moody’s Bison have yet to win a game, but South’s career victories record (seven by Dan Gallas) is technically still achievable this season.

Largent’s Buckaroos are 1-3, but with five weeks left in the regular season, reaching five victories — what it would take to overtake current school leader Dustin Sipe at 32 — is still attainable, as well.

And Young’s Braves have potentially the most achievable task ahead. Young enters this week with 78 victories at Star Valley. The school record, set by both Jerry Hart and Robert Linford, is 83. Five more victories for a team that’s already 4-0? Definitely doable.

This week, South hosts Rock Springs, Kaycee travels to Basin to play Riverside and Star Valley makes the trip to Jackson.

And, yes, Mountain View hosts Kemmerer as Walk tries to build on his own school record, just like 13 other coaches will try to do this weekend. (Oddly enough, two of those games this week are Natrona at Cheyenne East, and Casper Christian hosting Encampment, games matching up two programs with coaches who have their school records.)

Their coaches’ records will be a small part of the season’s story — but a part nonetheless.

+++

Other stuff to keep an eye on in Week 4? Well…

The 3A West will have some of the best football of the week as we get two definitive rival games — Cody heading to Powell and Star Valley trekking to Jackson — and another one with a lot of deep history, with Evanston hosting Green River. It’s a heck of a way to start conference play. …

The Class 1A nine-man East Conference has four teams that are 3-0 in Lingle, Pine Bluffs, Saratoga and Southeast. They don’t play each other this week. They don’t play each other next week. If they win out, we could enter Week 6 with four teams at 5-0 in that conference. Wild. (And if you’re looking ahead, it’s Lingle/Southeast and Pine Bluffs/Saratoga in Week 6, Lingle/Pine Bluffs and Saratoga/Southeast in Week 7, and Lingle/Saratoga and Pine Bluffs/Southeast in Week 8.) …

I mentioned it briefly above, but Natrona’s game with East is one of the most interesting on the schedule not only for this week, but for this season. A home playoff game might be on the line. …

This week’s coin-flip, I-have-even-less-of-a-clue-than-usual games? Cheyenne Central playing at (winless how?) Thunder Basin, and Dubois traveling to Hanna. Yes, I literally flipped a coin. Both are really intriguing matchups that will help clear up my confusion about some things. Or maybe add to it.

Streak watch: Sheridan can tie the state record for longest unbeaten streak this week with a victory against Kelly Walsh. That would give the Broncs 36 consecutive games without a loss, potentially tying the record set by Worland from 1953-56, which went had 34 victories and two ties in its 36-game stretch.

Meanwhile, Cheyenne South is still on the losing end of 42 consecutive games, already a state record. Friday’s game against Rock Springs will be South’s second of four home games this season, and a loss at home on Friday will give South the state record for longest home winless streak at 20 games. That record right now belongs to Saratoga, which went 0-18-1 over 19 home games from 1965-70.

+++

A quick note on last week’s game between Torrington and Yuma, Colo., an 8-3 loss for the Trailblazers. Turns out 8-3 is Wyoming high school football scorigami, meaning it’s the first time in state history that a game has ended with a final score of 8-3. It’s also a super-rare “low” scorigami, with both teams in single digits.

So far this season, seven other games have been scorigami games, with six of those seven happening in the six-man ranks. Oddly enough, Hulett has played in three straight: 85-74 (Hulett over Hanna in Week 1), 66-36 (Riverside over Hulett in Week 2), and 53-48 (Meeteetse over Hulett in Week 3). Others achieved this season include 64-52 (Hanna over Midwest in Week 0), 84-6 (Cheyenne East over Cheyenne South in Week 1), 71-32 (Encampment over the Natrona JV in Week 2), and 52-41 (Farson over Hanna in Week 3).

+++

Picks in bold. Efficiency.

Thursday
Class 1A nine-man
Wind River at Wyoming Indian
Interclass
Cheyenne South JV at Pine Bluffs
Friday
Class 4A
Campbell County at Laramie
Cheyenne Central at Thunder Basin
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan
Natrona at Cheyenne East
Rock Springs at Cheyenne South
Class 3A
Buffalo at Rawlins
Cody at Powell
Douglas at Riverton
Green River at Evanston
Star Valley at Jackson
Torrington at Lander
Class 2A
Big Horn at Burns
Glenrock at Wheatland
Lyman at Worland
Pinedale at Cokeville
Thermopolis at Lovell
Upton-Sundance at Moorcroft
Class 1A nine-man
Greybull at Shoshoni
Lingle at Wright
Rocky Mountain at Big Piney
Southeast at Lusk
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Hanna
Ten Sleep at Meeteetse
Saturday
Class 2A
Kemmerer at Mountain View
Tongue River at Newcastle
Class 1A six-man
Burlington at Hulett
Encampment at Casper Christian
Farson at Snake River
Kaycee at Riverside

Saratoga’s game at Guernsey was canceled, while Midwest’s game with the Kelly Walsh JV on Saturday has been shifted to a scrimmage. For a full schedule including kickoff times, click here.

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Here are the results of my picks from last week and this season:

Last week: 20-12 (63 percent). This season: 80-31 (72 percent). By the way, I’m not counting forfeits. Maybe I should, because last week was the roughest week for picks in awhile.

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What teams are you watching for the midway point of the regular season? Who’s been surprising, in either direction, for you? Leave a comment here, or hit me up on the Facebook page or on Twitter.

If you like what you see here, consider a page sponsorship. 

–patrick

Updated 7:58 a.m. MDT Sept. 26 to fix Walk’s first name. My apologies.

Unhinged Google reviews of Wyoming high school football stadiums

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Which Wyoming high school football stadium was called “beyond loud”? Which stadium had someone recommending closed-toed shoes? And which stadium was called, well… “It is a high school football place. No big deal.”

The answers are all waiting on Google Maps.

Believe it or not, a big chunk of people have left reviews about Wyoming high school football stadiums on Google. Ratings — out of five stars — and text comments drive the interaction. And, how to put this nicely? Some of the comments are exactly what you’d expect from an open-source reviews project.

Go here to take a quiz on those comments, everything from the really nice to the nostalgic to the neutral to the bitter. Don’t worry, no one’s keeping score. Correctly matched pairs disappear when you match them.

As for the ratings? As of Aug. 29, the seven top-rated fields, all with a maxed-out 5.0 rating, are Cody, Evanston, Guernsey, Lyman, Riverside, Rock Springs and Wheatland.

Other rated fields were Green River and Lusk (4.8), Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South and Thermopolis (4.7), Douglas and Rawlins (4.6), Cheyenne Central, Lander and Natrona (4.5), Midwest and Saratoga (4.3), Laramie (4.1), Burns, Hulett and Pine Bluffs (4.0) and Jackson (3.5).

Meanwhile, Campbell County, Kaycee, Kelly Walsh, Lingle, Lovell, Pinedale, Riverton, Sheridan, Thunder Basin, Tongue River, Torrington and Worland have their fields acknowledged on Google Maps, but so far no one has left a review.

And apologies to Big Horn, Big Piney, Buffalo, Burlington, Casper Christian, Cokeville, Dubois, Encampment, Farson, Glenrock, Greybull, Hanna, Kemmerer, Meeteetse, Moorcroft, Mountain View, Newcastle, Powell, Rocky Mountain, St. Stephens, Shoshoni, Snake River, Southeast, Star Valley, Sundance, Ten Sleep, Upton, Wind River, Wright and Wyoming Indian. Your fields aren’t marked on Google Maps, so no one can leave a review. At least not yet. Maybe that’s a blessing in disguise.

By the way, don’t like your stadium’s rating? Leave your own review on Google. Maybe someday, someone like me will add it to a silly online quiz.

–patrick

Zero Week picks: When a historically meaningful game gives you the ick

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Sheridan’s game with Cheyenne South on Friday will be a historic game, even before the opening kickoff.

The Broncs enter the 2024 season on a 31-game winning streak, just four short of the state record for consecutive victories and six short of the record for an unbeaten streak (which include ties).

Across the field will be Cheyenne South, losers of 38 consecutive games back to 2019, which in and of itself is already tied for the state record. A loss against Sheridan will put the Bison alone in “first” for this record.

Either streak alone would be deserving of attention. But the fact that they’re criss-crossing each other at this point, where each program’s streak is already at least 30 games, is truly historic.

Wyoming teams have built six winning streaks and nine unbeaten streaks that went at least 30 games. Oddly enough, Wyoming has also had programs build six losing streaks and nine winless streaks of at least 30 games.

But never in the history of Wyoming high school football have two teams on active streaks of 30 or more games — either unbeaten or winless, or any combination therein — played each other.

In fact, I can’t find a single instance of two teams with active unbeaten or winless streaks of even 20 consecutive games playing each other.

The closest I can find are three instances of teams putting 19-game streaks on the line against teams with streaks of at least 20 games. In all three cases, the games shaped up much like we will see on Friday — a team with a long losing streak facing a team with a long winning streak. In all three cases, the team with the winning streak continued to win, the team with the losing streak continued to lose:

  • Oct. 18, 1968: Saratoga took a 24-game losing streak into its game against Glenrock, which had an active 19-game winning streak. Glenrock won 72-0.
  • Oct. 20, 1989: Cokeville, winners of 20 straight, faced Kemmerer, losers of 19 straight. Cokeville won 49-20.
  • Oct. 1, 1999: Rocky Mountain, which had won 24 in a row, played Greybull, which had lost 19 in a row. Rocky Mountain won 60-18.

Although Cheyenne South could pull the absolute biggest upset ever seen in a century of Wyoming football — hey, the game always starts 0-0 — Sheridan is the obvious favorite entering Friday’s action.

I think this game, coincidentally scheduled to be the season opener for both squads, deserves special attention because of its historic nature.

However, I also think that the fact that these streaks are crossing paths at all should be a red flag for Class 4A football. Or, in the language of kids these days, it should give you the ick.

This game’s nature should be an indictment of 4A’s scheduling system as a whole.

Since 2009, Class 4A schools have used a 10-team, nine-game round-robin regular-season schedule, where each 4A team plays all the others. What this nine-week schedule does, though, is prohibit schools from seeking nonconference games. Every game is a conference game. And it’s the same teams over and over again every year. Long streaks aren’t a surprise in that kind of closed environment.

The thing that many people overlook? That round-robin schedule is just as bad for Sheridan as it is for Cheyenne South.

It means Sheridan has to wait for someone in 4A to rise up to give them a serious challenge to its winning streak. And it means the Broncs can’t look outside the state’s borders for a new challenge — say, from traditional regional rivals in Montana or for opportunities like Idaho’s Rocky Mountain Rumble, where state champions from across the region face off for a weekend full of games. Most coaches would rather face a tough opponent with the possibility of a nonconference loss in preparation for league games. They’d sacrifice a winning streak in August to make their team better for the games in November. Sheridan hasn’t even had the chance to make that choice since 2009.

The round-robin also means Cheyenne South can’t schedule a nonconference game against a more equitable regional opponent with the hopes of picking up a victory. Captain Obvious will note here that it’s not good for a program to lose 38 games in a row — for that program or for any of its opponents — but it might be even worse to hamstring that team’s schedule in a way where they can’t find teams of equal or near-equal talent to have both a chance to win and a chance to gain confidence even in a loss.

Personally, I’d love to see South go up against a 3A or 2A team like Green River, Lander, Torrington, Douglas, Wheatland, or any number of teams from western Nebraska or northern Colorado. But in its existence — its entire 13-season, 10-victory, 108-loss existence — the Bison have never had that freedom.

The intercepting streaks should be a call for a return to conference play, and nonconference freedom, for 4A’s biggest schools.

It’s kind of like income inequality. It’s better for society when everyone has a chance to be a part of it. And it makes for better for football when everyone has the chance to play at least a few games against opponents that fit your skill level and experience.

Conference play would mean fewer streaks like Sheridan’s and South’s, fewer opportunities for historic games where those streaks cross ways, fewer records.

But probably, it would mean better football, and better experiences for those playing and coaching.

The second option sounds like the better one.

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Some other action I’m keeping a closer eye on than usual this week:

The 4A schedule is absurdly front-loaded this season, with all four semifinal teams playing each other in the first five weeks of the season. That starts with Thunder Basin, who has the challenge of playing the other three semifinalists from 4A last year in the first three weeks. That journey starts with a trip to Casper on Friday to play Natrona in a super-intriguing, and important, season opener for both teams. …

One late change to the schedule has Lovell going to Buffalo instead of the other way around for their scrimmage. Lovell’s facilities are undergoing a bit of a facelift, and things weren’t going to be ready by this weekend, hence the switch. Newcastle and Thermopolis are also scheduled to be scrimmaging (quick-whistle special teams) in Buffalo on Friday night (in what could be the most intriguing showdown of the week across the state) in what will become Wyoming’s temporary football capital. …

Are jamborees dying? This season, only three jamborees are scheduled — Farson, Pine Bluffs and Greybull will host — with a total of 12 teams participating. That seems down. …

Evanston’s opponent this week, Ben Lomond, Utah, has already played two games. However, Evanston and Ben Lomond have scored an equal number of points so far this season. Do the math; I’ll wait.

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On to this week’s picks. By the way, the 2024 season is my 20th consecutive year of picking winners of Wyoming high school football games. Fortunately, I’m not always right, and the game and the sport are a lot more fun to follow with some chaos in the mix. I’ll still try, though, with projected winners in bold:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Rock Springs
Cheyenne South at Sheridan
Kelly Walsh at Campbell County
Laramie at Cheyenne East
Thunder Basin at Natrona
Class 3A
Riverton at Powell
Class 1A nine-man
Wright at Shoshoni
Class 1A six-man
Midwest at Hanna
Ten Sleep at St. Stephens
Interclass
Glenrock vs. Jackson (at Riverton)
Interstate
Evanston at Ben Lomond, Utah
Lyman at Malad, Idaho
Shelley, Idaho, at Star Valley
Torrington at Gering, Neb.
Wheatland at Mitchell, Neb.
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Kaycee at Casper Christian
Interclass
Mountain View at Green River
Rawlins at Burns

The Zero Week schedule also includes several scrimmages and jamborees. As usual, here are the guidelines I use to determine whether something played in Zero Week “counts” or not:

  • 1. Was the game played with four 12-minute quarters (10 for six-man) with normal timing rules?
  • 2. Were officials used? And were normal rules of play instituted for the game?
  • 3. Was score kept?

If these three criteria are met, I call it a game and record it as such on this site.

I reached out to most of the non-4A coaches and ADs this week for clarification. Turns out, a few of the scrimmages are just that — controlled contact, with coaches on the field and scenarios in play. A few of the scrimmages are almost games — no or limited special teams, quick-whistle plays, and so on. And there’s some stuff in between. Still others may not have their format decided until just before kickoff. So that’s fun. I tried to confirm every contest on the schedule this week with the coaches and ADs across the state, and almost everyone got back to me. The schedule I have is the best I can do. With that:

For a full schedule including kickoff times, click here.

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Which team do you see making that indelible impression on the 2024 season here in Zero Week? Leave a comment here, or hit me up on the Facebook page or on Twitter.

If you like what you see here, consider a page sponsorship. 

–patrick

” … And one” (or “one and … “): Wyoming high school football’s barely interrupted winning and losing streaks

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On the streaks page on this site, I keep track of the state’s longest winning and losing streaks. Entering the 2024 season, that is of particular focus as Sheridan approaches the state record for consecutive victories and Cheyenne South does the same for consecutive losses.

Looking at those streaks got me thinking about the almost-streaks — those winning or losing streaks only interrupted by one game, one of the “if not for” scenarios that I love to explore.

For example, what happens if Hulett kicker Mike Nacey has his plant foot slip, he misses that field goal (credited as an 11-yarder, by the way) and Hulett and Sundance go to overtime in 1974 — does Hulett have the state record for consecutive losses at a full 58? What happens if Cokeville doesn’t fumble with six minutes to go in the fourth quarter and Pinedale’s Doug Robbins doesn’t run 90 yards with it the other way for the deciding points (in a game where, by the way, Cokeville led 14-0 but Pinedale scored two defensive touchdowns to rally) — does Cokeville have the state record for consecutive victories at 44?

The ideas for historical fan fiction abound.

With that in mind, I explored the records and found the teams with the longest winning and losing streaks that had only a single blotch on them. Together, they represent all the such streaks of at least 40 games in state history:

Winning streaks

  • Rocky Mountain: 46-1 between 1995 and 1999; the only loss was to Moorcroft in 1996 (34-20)
  • Cokeville: 43-1 between 1987 and 1992; the only loss was to Pinedale in 1990 (18-14)
  • Byron: 42-1 between 1945 and 1952; the only loss was to Cowley in 1950 (35-6)
  • Douglas: 39-1 between 2008 and 2011; the only loss was to Green River in 2011 (32-15)

Losing streaks

  • Hulett: 1-57 between 1971 and 1978; the only victory was against Sundance in 1974 (3-0)
  • Cheyenne South: 1-45 between 2018 and 2023 (current); the only victory has been against Laramie in 2019 (36-35)
  • Kemmerer: 1-45 between 2012 and 2017; the only victory was against Saratoga in 2017 (34-0)
  • Newcastle: 1-42 between 2001 and 2006; the only victory was against Wheatland in 2004 (34-20)

–patrick

2024’s dream Wyoming high school football road trip

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If you had nothing but time and money, how would you spend them?

Well, meet the possibilities — a dream Wyoming high school football road trip, made possible by perusing the 2024 schedule and deciding what road trips were (1) doable, (2) had interesting football and (3) allowed me to see a lot of the state.

Your trip might be different, and that’s cool. My fantasy trip would allow me to see 41 of Wyoming’s 65 high school teams, and I’d make it to 27 different locations — not as many as I’d like, but as many as a schedule might allow. Over nine weeks, that’s an average of three new locations a week. I’ll take it. But I’d also take unlimited time and money, too.

My schedule:

Week 0
Cheyenne South at Sheridan, 6 p.m. Friday, Aug. 30
Sheridan JV at Tongue River, 11 a.m. Saturday, Aug. 31
Yes, I’m a sucker for history. So the chance to see South and Sheridan square off with the two longest active streaks in the state — one winning, one losing — was too much for me. Throw in a chance to head to Dayton and one of the most beautiful backdrops for football in the state the next day, and I’m in.

Week 1
Kemmerer vs. Moorcroft, 4 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 5 (at Shoshoni)
Lusk at Rocky Mountain, 1 p.m. Friday, Sept. 6
Riverton at Cody, 6 p.m. Friday, Sept. 6
Dubois at Ten Sleep, 2 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 7
The crown jewel of this week’s Northwest corner action is the Riverton-Cody game, with the Wolverines coming off a solid rebuilding year and Cody being, well, Cody. The other games are all interesting in their own right — a neutral-site game is always unique, Lusk and Rocky should both be improved and Dubois and Ten Sleep both have new head coaches. All in all, a solid schedule.

Week 2
Natrona JV at Encampment, 4 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 10
Cheyenne Central JV at Torrington, 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 12
Upton-Sundance at Newcastle, 7 p.m. Friday, Sept. 13
Riverside at Hulett, 3 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 14
I’ll be honest — I try to double up on Fridays when I can. But nothing really worked for me. So I stayed to the eastern edge of the state and picked up an intriguing 2A game as well as some chances to see some other teams I’d really like to see this season in one fell swoop.

Week 3
Rocky Mountain at Greybull, 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 19
Midwest at Kaycee, 1 p.m. Friday, Sept. 20
Cheyenne East at Sheridan, 6 p.m. Friday, Sept. 20
Burlington at Ten Sleep, 2 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 21
There is no way I’d miss East-Sheridan this year. If the Broncs can win their first three, this one would be for the state record for longest winning streak. Everything else is gravy — and this would give me a chance to do the Slip Road trip, something that I never have done and really want to do. This isn’t JUST about football.

Week 4
Wind River at Wyoming Indian, 5 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 26
Rocky Mountain at Big Piney, 1 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27
Green River at Evanston, 7 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27
Kemmerer at Mountain View, 1 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 28
OK, Southwest corner — show me what you’ve got. I do like the idea of being able to see both 2023 1A nine-man championship game teams in the same week, as well as Evanston’s new-ish digs and Mountain View at home, always a nice opportunity.

Week 5
Kemmerer at Lyman, 4 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 3
Wright at Saratoga, 1 p.m. Friday, Oct. 4
Torrington at Rawlins, 7 p.m. Friday, Oct. 4
Snake River at Dubois, 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 5
This week is about quantity, and hitting up Carbon County for a doubleheader allows for that. It’s also a chance to see the Wright-Saratoga game, which has taken on a life of its own the past couple years, as well as a way to see defending 2A champ (now in 3A) Torrington and 1A six-man power Snake River in the same weekend. And a Lyman visit on top of all of that? Heck yeah.

Week 6
Cody sophs at Shoshoni, 5 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 10
Casper Christian at Farson, noon Friday, Oct. 10
Cody at Star Valley, 5 p.m. Friday, Oct. 10
Wind River at Big Piney, 1 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 11
Yep, the westside is getting a lot of midseason love, but there’s no way you’re going to have me miss that Cody-Star Valley game (might have to leave Farson early, sorry Pronghorns). Everything else around that is mostly convenience, but it’s also awesome to have a chance to see a rematch of last year’s 1A nine-man title game, too.

Week 7
Midwest at Meeteetse, 7 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 17
Riverside at Burlington, 2 p.m. Friday, Oct. 18
Campbell County at Sheridan, 6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 18
Hulett at Kaycee, 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 19
I might have to dip out of Burlington a few minutes early to get to Sheridan on time, but those two games are really appealing and I’d love to try to get to them both. Two other six-man games bookend what could be an interesting week of games that will probably have tons of playoff implications.

Week 8
Rocky Mountain at Wind River, 6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 24
Burlington at Midwest, 1 p.m. Friday, Oct. 25
Rock Springs at Kelly Walsh, 6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 25
Snake River at Encampment, 2 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 26
The Friday night prime-time slot choice here might seem a bit odd, with both Rock Springs and Kelly Walsh coming off tough seasons, but I’m really interested to see how they’ll both do with first-year coaches and how complete their turnarounds will be after one season, so catching them in the regular-season finale seems like a neat opportunity. Throw in what might be one of the best six-man games of the year in Encampment, another chance to see Rocky (that makes four!?) and a visit to my hometown home field, and that’s a great way to cap it all.

What’s your schedule look like? Let me know — leave a comment and tell me the route you’d take around the state!

–patrick

NFL Network documentary dives deep on the Heart Mountain Eagles football team

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The NFL Network recently aired a half-hour documentary on the Heart Mountain Eagles football team, including an interview with the last surviving member of the team and the author of the book “The Eagles of Heart Mountain.” Here is a link to the full documentary on YouTube. (I would have embedded it here, but the NFL doesn’t allow embedding of its YouTube videos.)

Also, here’s my review of the book “The Eagles of Heart Mountain.” Check it out if you haven’t yet.

–patrick

The first (and only?) consensus all-America college football player with Wyoming roots

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Quick: Name the first consensus all-America college football player who grew up in Wyoming.

Even the most seasoned Wyoming sports trivia veteran might struggle to come up with the name that answers this question. The reason makes sense, though: The first all-America pick to come from the Equality State never played football in the state, opting instead to make a name for himself back east before returning to Wyoming.

Richard “Dick” Luman was a consensus all-America choice while playing end at Yale in 1924. The Pinedale native is believed to be the first Wyoming native to be chosen as a consensus all-America football player.

A photo of Richard "Dick" Luman from the Dec. 14, 1924, Chicago Tribune.
Richard “Dick” Luman is highlighted as an all-America football team selection in this article from the Dec. 14, 1924, Chicago Tribune.

Luman was born in 1900 in Sublette County into a prominent ranching family. For secondary school, he attended Phillips Exeter Academy in Exeter, New Hampshire, which eventually led him to Yale. As a Bulldog, he emerged as an equally effective offensive and defensive player at end and a hard-to-stop center for the basketball team.

In 1924, Luman earned consensus all-America status by being named to two of the six all-America teams — the All America Board team and the International News Service team. He was one of four ends to earn consensus all-America status.

He was also named the Yale basketball team’s captain in 1925.

After Yale, Luman lived in a few different places before he returned to work the Luman family ranch near Pinedale. He later embarked on a career of public service. He served in both the Wyoming Senate and House of Representatives before becoming the chairman of Wyoming’s state Board of Equalization and Public Service Commission; he was also Wyoming’s deputy state treasurer. His career ended in 1969.

Luman died on his 73rd birthday — April 26, 1973 — in Houston, Texas, where he had been living with his son, Edgar.

The list of college all-American football players with roots in Wyoming is indeed short; looking only at consensus all-Americans produces a list that’s even shorter. At a glance, I can’t find any other consensus all-America choices with Wyoming roots — something beyond being born in the state’s borders. Does that make Luman the first, and only, of his kind? Trivia buffs can help me out with this one. I’d love to hear from you! Comment below.

–patrick

Way-too-early top fives for 2024’s Wyoming high school football season

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It’s tradition ’round these parts to start looking ahead to next season as soon as the last one ends. The cycle never ends. With that in mind, despite being eight months away from the first practice and nearly nine months away from the first game, now seems to be a good time to figure out which teams may be the best entering 2024.

And, yes, it’s too soon to do this. But that’s part of the fun. When I did this last year, I got two eventual champions right, and two other champions were ranked second. And I whiffed on one (coughTorringtoncough). That’s the fun, though — as expectations change, as players move or leave or return and as coaches change, so will expectations. The preseason rankings in August may look quite different. For now, though, here’s who I have as my top five teams in each class:

Class 4A
1. Sheridan: Normally, I absolutely despise it when someone pulls out the cliche of “they’re No. 1 until someone beats them” to describe who should be ranked first in a preseason poll. Yet here I am. Because with three straight titles and 31 consecutive victories behind them, and a lack of returning talent elsewhere in 4A, I think the Broncs — despite just one returning first-team all-conference player, that being kicker/punter Ty Gilbertson — deserve that respect.
2. Campbell County: Straight up, no other team in 4A returns as much talent as the Camels do. With five returning first-team all-conference players, a mark three better than any other squad, this could be Campbell County’s finest season in years.
3. Thunder Basin: Cort Catlin and Logan Mendoza are two of just four returning first-team all-staters across the entirety of Class 4A, and they’re both with the ‘Bolts this fall. That’s a good place to start for a team that’s a consistent contender.
4. Cheyenne East: In another case of respect for a program over respect for returning numbers, the Thunderbirds return only one first-team all-conference player (senior lineman Jesse Kirkbride) but have tons of program momentum.
5. Natrona: The Mustangs have two first-team all-conference players back in seniors Rogan Potter and Tucker Sides. Normally, that wouldn’t be enough to be an immediate contender, but in 2024, where all bets are off, they should help make NC a title threat.
Wild card: Cheyenne Central. The Indians also return a pair of first-team all-conference players in seniors Brycen Bailey and Tate Berry. Gain a little confidence early in the season, and Central could be one of 4A’s toughest teams. (Side note: 4A should have a lot more parity this fall…)

Class 3A
1. Star Valley: How original, I know. But the Braves return six all-state selections from last year’s title team, including senior quarterback Smith McClure, and should be the prohibitive favorites entering 2024.
2. Cody: How original, again. But the Broncs, last year’s runners-up, like Star Valley return six first-team all-state selections, including senior quarterback Maddax Ball. As frustrating as a Cody-Star Valley title game might seem to every other 3A team, you can’t deny what both these programs have accomplished over the past decade. Everyone else is chasing these two.
3. Powell: It’s a wide gulf between Star Valley and Cody and the rest of 3A this year — combined, the remaining 10 teams in 3A have just seven all-staters returning, where Cody and Star Valley have six each. But Powell, with its three all-staters in senior linemen Doug Bettger and Dusty Carter and linebacker Keona Wisnewski, are the biggest threat to the hierarchy.
4. Buffalo: After the top three, it’s a crapshoot, but Buffalo’s three returning all-conference selections, led by all-state senior lineman Hayden Jawors, is the most among 3A’s returners.
5. Douglas: If linebackers are the core of a defense, then the Bearcats will be set. All-stater Carter Archuleta and all-conference pick Cash Tillard, both seniors, will help Douglas reload.
Wild cards: Torrington, Riverton and Evanston. Yes, it’s a cop-out to pick three wild card teams, but so what? Torrington moves up to 3A after winning the 2A title last year, its first title since 1990, and returns enough talent to be immediately competitive. Meanwhile, Riverton and Evanston both had resurgent seasons last year and could be in the mix again if they get development deep on the roster.

Class 2A
1. Big Horn: The Rams have two big things going for them. First, they’ve been to Laramie each of the past two years, coming up just short of a title last year and winning it all in 2022. Second, they’re the only team in 2A this year that has more than one returning all-state choice, those being seniors Avon Barney and Kolby Butler.
2. Mountain View: People tend to overlook just how dominant Mountain View was in last year’s regular season, winning every conference game except one by double digits — and even that one was by eight. With three all-conference players back, led by junior all-state quarterback Justus Platts, the Buffalos should be right back in the title conversation.
3. Worland: The Warriors, in returning four of their five all-conference selections (including all-state lineman Brody Thiel), were already going to be a resurgent team in 2024. Moving from 3A to 2A immediately makes them a title threat in a classification where depth is at a premium, but they’ll have to adjust to a new coach.
4. Cokeville: The Panthers have four returning all-conference players, all seniors, tied with Big Horn and Worland for the most in 2A. Depth is always a concern for 2A’s smallest school, but the Panthers handle it every season. They’ll be right there to contend.
5. (tie) Lyman and Lovell: Yes, it’s a cop-out to pick two teams in the No. 5 spot, but so what? Both return a pair of all-conference players, and all-staters Davin Crosby (Lovell) and Max Gregory (Lyman) should help make each one competitive. Oh, and yes, the West is absolutely loaded this season.
Wild card: Newcastle. Looking for a team on the rise? Check out the Dogies, whose three all-conference returners is second only to Big Horn in the East. Trouble is, none of those three will be seniors in 2024.

Class 1A nine-man
1. Lingle: Maybe the Doggers just needed some more experience to break through. After all, with all four of their all-state choices and six of their eight all-conference choices — both tops in 1A nine-man — coming back this year, it makes sense to see the Doggers on top of a preseason list like this.
2. Pine Bluffs: The Hornets should again be a contender thanks to four returning all-conference choices and all-state senior Shawn Shmidl leading the way.
3. Rocky Mountain: Not many teams return the experience the Grizzlies do, who had to play a lot of inexperienced players last year due to graduation losses. That should pay off this year, with five all-conference choices and senior all-stater Tucker Jackson fronting the effort.
4. Lusk: The Tigers get back a pair of all-state picks (senior Jackson Smith and sophomore Raynce Brott) and all four of their all-conference players. Not a bad place to start.
5. Southeast: The Cyclones will have a new coach for the first time this century, but the cupboard isn’t bare as all-staters Ayden Desmond and T.J. Moats lead a team that’s got enough returning to contend with nine-man’s best.
Wild cards: Big Piney and Wind River. Yes, neither one of last year’s championship-game teams are listed here. That’s with good reason. Combined, they return just two all-state/all-conference players (one apiece) and will have to get young players to step up in a hurry to return to their lofty heights of 2023.

Class 1A six-man
1. Burlington: Here’s a number for you: Burlington returns four all-state selections this year, all seniors. Combined, all the other teams in six-man have three. The defending champs are in good shape for a repeat.
2. Snake River: The Rattlers should be in great shape to challenge for a title, as well. Seniors Bridger Cozzens and Mason Jones were all-state picks, and the program — despite losing in the six-man championship — still has great momentum.
3. Riverside: All-state senior Curtis Strohschein leads a Rebel team that returns three all-conference players from its nine-man team last year. As they move to six-man this year, the Rebels should be immediate title contenders.
4. Encampment: After six-man’s top three, no other team returns even a single all-state selection. Encampment, though, with senior all-conference picks Tyrel Brown and Gunner Henrie, looks like on paper to be the best of the rest.
5. Kaycee: The Buckaroos consistently play beyond their numbers, and in a muddled group of potential contenders, Kaycee could be the best of the bunch despite a lack of depth.
Wild cards: Meeteetse and Hanna. Both the Longhorns and Miners will be young teams in 2024, but those young cores bode well for the future — and potentially the present.

Who do you have as your potential champs, or your potential teams that everyone might be overlooking? Leave a comment and let me know what you’re thinking, way too soon ahead of the 2024 season.

–patrick

Using Pythagorean win expectations in Wyoming high school football to find the most surprising seasons in state history

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If you just look at the cumulative effect of NSI Academy’s scores from the 2007 season, you would not have expected much from the Wolves.

For the year, the Wolves were outscored 281-150.

And with a score differential like that, what kind of record would you expect?

Well, there’s some math we can do to figure that out.

Using something called the Pythagorean expectation, the Wolves — who played 10 games that season — would have been roughly expected to finish with a record of about 2-8. After all, most teams with that kind of score differential across that many games finish with about that kind of record.

But the Wolves finished 6-4. They won 4.2 more games than the Pythagorean model would have expected them to.

And across more than 100 years of Wyoming high school football, the Wolves’ 4.2 wins above expectation is the highest difference for a single team in state history.

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Here’s the math part, as simplified as I can make it: In short, the Pythagorean expectation model looks at a team’s scoring differential and then tries to estimate what a team’s win-loss record should be based on that differential alone. For example, a team that goes 4-4 and finished with a scoring differential of zero would have a Pythagorean score of 0.0 — and the logic follows that you’d expect a team that scored as many points as it gave up to have a .500 record.

A positive Pythagorean score means you won more games than the model would predict; a negative Pythagorean score means you lost more. (For a breakdown of the math used in this post, check out Wikipedia’s article on Pythagorean expectation.)

For a more recent example of the Pythagorean model, let’s look at the 2023 season, and two teams that share a both a 2023 victory total and a first letter: Worland and Wright.

Worland, playing in Class 3A, finished 3-6. Wright, a Class 1A nine-man team, finished 3-5. So we would expect their point differential to be about the same, right?

Well… Would you believe that Wright outscored its opponents 201-124, while Worland was outscored 286-69?

The Pythagorean expectations vary greatly because of those totals. Through that math, we would have expected Wright to win 6.1 games out of its eight with that kind of scoring margin. Instead, Wright won three, giving Wright a score of negative 3.1 (3 wins minus 6.1 predicted wins = negative 3.1). Meanwhile, we’d expect Worland to win 0.3 games out of its nine, so the Warriors’ Pythagorean score is a positive 2.7 (3-0.3=2.7).

In short: With their score differentials, Wright should have won about six games; Worland should have won zero. Instead, both teams won three games. Together, they were the biggest outliers of the 2023 season, Wright the team with the lowest number of victories from what would be expected from their season point differential, Worland the highest.

But they are still far from some of the biggest single-season outliers we’ve ever seen.

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Across the 5,469 Wyoming high school football seasons where a team played at least five games, the Pythagorean expectations correctly predicted a team’s record within one game in 3,596 cases, or about 66% of the time. (Yes, I ran the math for all 5,469.)

The outliers, though — like NSI’s 2007 season — are the most interesting.

NSI’s 2007 season was by far the biggest outlier on the positive side. On the negative side, well… meet Rawlins, whose 1928 team had a Pythagorean win expectation of 7.3 wins over their eight games. The Outlaws finished the season with a 151-56 point differential. Still, Rawlins only mustered a 3-3-2 record, a Pythagorean win expectation that was -4.3 fewer than expected. It’s the lowest mark in state history.

Oddly enough, just two years later, basically the same thing happened to Rawlins, which tied with Green River’s 1940 team for the second-worst Pythagorean outcome in state history. That year, Rawlins outscored opponents 112-41 and had a Pythagorean win expectation of 8.2 across nine games. The Outlaws went 4-4-1, a -4.2 below expectations.

The Pythagorean expectations can also be extrapolated to predict winning percentage, as well. Below are some of the best and worst outcomes we’ve seen using the Pythagorean expectations model for teams that played a minimum of five games in their season:

Best Pythagorean win differences (overachievers)
1. NSI 2007 (+4.2): Predicted 1.8 victories, actual record 6-4, point differential 150-281
2. Gebo 1932 (+3.6): Predicted 1.4 victories, actual record 5-3, point differential 66-126
3. Cheyenne East 2008 (+3.4): Predicted 3.6 victories, actual record 7-3, point differential 207-263
4t. Glenrock 1995 (+3.3): Predicted 1.7 victories, actual record 5-4, point differential 85-157
4t. Greybull 1991 (+3.3): Predicted 1.7 victories, actual record 5-3, point differential 93-161
4t. Kemmerer 1981 (+3.3): Predicted 1.7 victories, actual record 5-4, point differential 80-146
7t. Cody 1926 (+3.2): Predicted 1.8 victories, actual record 5-2, point differential 72-113
7t. Natrona 1945 (+3.2): Predicted 1.8 victories, actual record 5-4, point differential 75-134
7t. Big Piney 2007 (+3.2): Predicted 2.8 victories, actual record 6-3, point differential 122-169
10t. Evanston 2021 (+3.1): Predicted 1.9 victories, actual record 5-4, point differential 135-238
10t. Torrington 1980 (+3.1): Predicted 0.9 victories, actual record 4-3, point differential 42-94
10t. Lovell 1976 (+3.1): Predicted 0.9 victories, actual record 4-5, point differential 64-161
13t. Midwest 1956 (+3.0): Predicted 1.0 victories, actual record 4-5, point differential 65-160
13t. Cody 1953 (+3.0): Predicted 1.0 victories, actual record 4-4, point differential 113-261
13t. Pine Bluffs 1975 (+3.0): Predicted 1.0 victories, actual record 4-4, point differential 65-147
16t. Rawlins 1931 (+2.9): Predicted 1.1 victories, actual record 4-3-1, point differential 47-103
16t. Wright 2005 (+2.9): Predicted 4.1 victories, actual record 7-4, point differential 123-153
18t. Ten Sleep 1978 (+2.8): Predicted 1.2 victories, actual record 4-4, point differential 66-139
18t. Cody 1978 (+2.8): Predicted 1.2 victories, actual record 4-5, point differential 60-132
18t. Star Valley 1974 (+2.8): Predicted 1.2 victories, actual record 4-4, point differential 79-162
18t. Superior 1955 (+2.8): Predicted 1.2 victories, actual record 4-4, point differential 84-172
18t. Lingle 1925 (+2.8): Predicted 0.2 victories, actual record 3-7, point differential 58-274

Worst Pythagorean win differences (underachievers)
1. Rawlins 1928 (-4.3): Predicted 7.3 victories, actual record 3-3-2, point differential 151-56
2t. Rawlins 1930 (-4.2): Predicted 8.2 victories, actual record 4-4-1, point differential 112-41
2t. Green River 1940 (-4.2): Predicted 7.2 victories, actual record 3-2-3, point differential 94-37
4. Cheyenne Central 1920 (-4.0): Predicted 8.0 victories, actual record 4-3-2, point differential 98-40
5t. Torrington 1925 (-3.9): Predicted 6.9 victories, actual record 3-4-1, point differential 159-72
5t. Green River 1965 (-3.9): Predicted 5.9 victories, actual record 2-3-3, point differential 115-74
5t. Lingle 1936 (-3.9): Predicted 7.9 victories, actual record 4-2-3, point differential 71-31
8. Torrington 1922 (-3.8): Predicted 7.8 victories, actual record 4-5, point differential 222-101
9t. Kemmerer 1956 (-3.7): Predicted 7.7 victories, actual record 4-4-1, point differential 149-70
9t. Green River 1929 (-3.7): Predicted 6.7 victories, actual record 3-2-2, point differential 72-20
11t. Sheridan 1954 (-3.6): Predicted 7.6 victories, actual record 4-3-2, point differential 168-81
11t. Natrona 1936 (-3.6): Predicted 10.6 victories, actual record 7-1-3, point differential 156-40
11t. Kemmerer 1931 (-3.6): Predicted 9.6 victories, actual record 6-2-2, point differential 169-46
11t. Rawlins 1940 (-3.6): Predicted 9.6 victories, actual record 6-3-1, point differential 191-52
Since 2000:
1. Burlington 2005 (-3.5): Predicted 8.5 victories, actual record 5-4, point differential 322-101
2. Mountain View 2000 (-3.3): Predicted 8.3 victories, actual record 5-5, point differential 253-131
3. Wright 2023 (-3.1): Predicted 6.1 victories, actual record 3-5, point differential 201-124
4t. Rock Springs 2019 (-3.0): Predicted 7.0 victories, actual record 4-6, point differential 246-172
4t. Sheridan 2020 (-3.0): Predicted 10.0 victories, actual record 7-4, point differential 390-148
6. Pine Bluffs 2011 (-2.9): Predicted 7.9 victories, actual record 5-4, point differential 196-84

Best Pythagorean win percentage differences (overachievers)
1. Superior 1944: Predicted win percentage 0.083, actual win percentage 0.600, difference +0.517, point differential 21-58
2. Cody 1926: Predicted win percentage 0.256, actual win percentage 0.714, difference +0.459, point differential 72-113
3. Gebo 1932: Predicted win percentage 0.178, actual win percentage 0.625, difference +0.447, point differential 66-126
4. Torrington 1980: Predicted win percentage 0.129, actual win percentage 0.571, difference +0.442, point differential 42-94
5. Rawlins 1931: Predicted win percentage 0.135, actual win percentage 0.563, difference +0.428, point differential 47-103
6. Lovell 1942: Predicted win percentage 0.158, actual win percentage 0.583, difference +0.425, point differential 38-77
7. NSI 2007: Predicted win percentage 0.184, actual win percentage 0.600, difference +0.416, point differential 150-281
8. Greybull 1991: Predicted win percentage 0.214, actual win percentage 0.625, difference +0.411, point differential 93-161
9. Sunrise 1949: Predicted win percentage 0.208, actual win percentage 0.600, difference +0.392, point differential 100-176
10. Guernsey 1937: Predicted win percentage 0.215, actual win percentage 0.600, difference +0.385, point differential 33-57
Since 2000:
1. NSI 2007: Predicted win percentage 0.184, actual win percentage 0.600, difference +0.416, point differential 150-281
2. Big Piney 2007: Predicted win percentage 0.316, actual win percentage 0.667, difference +0.351, point differential 122-169
3. Evanston 2021: Predicted win percentage 0.207, actual win percentage 0.556, difference +0.349, point differential 135-238
4. Cheyenne East 2008: Predicted win percentage 0.362, actual win percentage 0.700, difference +0.338, point differential 207-263
5. Saratoga 2015: Predicted win percentage 0.070, actual win percentage 0.375, difference +0.305, point differential 98-291

Worst Pythagorean win percentage differences (underachievers)
1. Sundance 1933: Predicted win percentage 0.834, actual win percentage 0.333, difference -0.500, point differential 79-40
2. Gebo 1930: Predicted win percentage 0.884, actual win percentage 0.400, difference, -0.484, point differential 59-25
3. Sunrise 1939: Predicted win percentage 0.875, actual win percentage 0.400, difference -0.475, point differential 59-26
4. Wheatland 1981: Predicted win percentage 0.816, actual win percentage 0.375, difference -0.441, point differential 133-71
5. Cowley 1925: Predicted win percentage 0.576, actual win percentage 0.143, difference -0.434, point differential 82-72
6. Lingle 1940: Predicted win percentage 0.931, actual win percentage 0.500, difference -0.431, point differential 132-44
7. Torrington 1925: Predicted win percentage 0.867, actual win percentage 0.438, difference -0.430, point differential 159-72
8. Torrington 1922: Predicted win percentage 0.866, actual win percentage 0.444, difference -0.422, point differential 222-101
9. Rawlins 1942: Predicted win percentage 0.916, actual win percentage 0.500, difference -0.416, point differential 107-39
10. Rawlins 1930: Predicted win percentage 0.915, actual win percentage 0.500, difference -0.415, point differential 112-41
Since 2000:
1t. Burlington 2005: Predicted win percentage 0.940, actual win percentage 0.556, difference -0.384, point differential 322-101
1t. Wright 2023: Predicted win percentage 0.759, actual win percentage 0.375, difference -0.384, point differential 201-124
3t. Mountain View 2000: Predicted win percentage 0.828, actual win percentage 0.500, difference -0.326, point differential 253-131
3t. Pine Bluffs 2011: Predicted win percentage 0.882, actual win percentage 0.556, difference -0.326, point differential 196-84
5. Lusk 2019: Predicted win percentage 0.803, actual win percentage 0.500, difference -0.303, point differential 304-168

–patrick

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