Quarterfinal playoff picks: Intrigue abounds in 1A 11-man playoffs

With apologies to the other four classifications, the best set of first round playoff games belongs to Class 1A 11-man.

Nowhere else do we get the intrigue of a No. 1 seed coming is as a decided underdog to a No. 4 seed.

Nowhere else do we get the rematch of two of the state’s best coaches re-staging one of the state’s best games of 2016.

Nowhere else do we see a matchup of teams who beat two common opponents by identical scores and a third common opponent by the exact same margin.

And nowhere else do we see an undefeated, defending state champion hosting a team that qualified for the playoffs by beating the two worst 11-man teams in the state and no one else.

The 1A 11-man drama starts in Shoshoni, where the Wranglers lost their final game of the regular season but won the top seed from the West by winning a coin flip. Coin flip karma kicked in immediately, though: Thanks to the flip, Southeast is coming back to Fremont County.

If you’re a Shoshoni supporter, you’re wondering if being the top seed is actually the worst possible outcome you could have had. After all, Shoshoni has yet to shake the shock of 2015.

Remember that? Remember how Shoshoni was 8-0 coming into last year’s playoffs, the top seed from the West, and not only got beaten but beaten down by East No. 4 seed Southeast?

Remember how they showed up on each other’s regular-season schedules this year? Remember how Shoshoni traveled to Goshen County and came back battered and beaten, 32-13?

Now, even as a No. 1 seed, Shoshoni is the underdog.

And right under that game in the bracket is the game between Tongue River and Cokeville.

Just like Shoshoni-Southeast, Tongue River-Cokeville is another rematch of a 2015 first-round playoff game. Last year, Tongue River and coach John Scott — who knows a thing or two about winning games in Lincoln County from his time as head coach at Kemmerer — went down to Cokeville and beat the Panthers 28-21 on their way to a berth in the state title game.

Cokeville would love to reverse roles this year, and why not? Cokeville’s already gotten some revenge, beating Tongue River this year. It was 12-7. In Dayton. For Cokeville coach Todd Dayton’s 300th career victory. There isn’t a single player in orange and black who’s scared of the trip to Sheridan County.

The other side of the bracket has more mystery but just as much intrigue.

Rocky Mountain and Pine Bluffs will meet in Cowley knowing that the other team is equally as good. After all, they both beat Lusk 35-6, and they both beat Wyoming Indian 70-0, and they both beat Wind River by exactly 41 points (Pine Bluffs 41-0, Rocky Mountain 47-6.) It’s like a mirror.

Finally, defending champ Upton-Sundance is just chillin’. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a 15-game winning streak, the longest active streak in 11-man. For earning the East’s top seed, Upton-Sundance draws Saratoga. And for Saratoga, this has to feel like the scary part of jumping on a trampoline — you don’t know you’re too high until you’ve already made the leap.

The Panthers qualified as the West’s No. 4 seed by beating Wind River and Wyoming Indian, who finished a combined 1-15, with the one win being Wind River’s win over Wyoming Indian. Saratoga itself lost to the East’s lowest-placing team, Lusk; Lusk went 1-7 but beat Saratoga 58-12.

The 1 vs. 4 games in 1A 11-man could not be any more different.

In part, that’s why the 1A 11-man playoff bracket might be the best in the state this season. It’s definitely the best of the quarterfinals.

+++

Other noteworthy pieces from the first round of the playoffs:

It’s a big week in Sweetwater County. Six-man Farson, which went through the regular season undefeated, will host a playoff game for the first time in program history when it takes on Hanna. Farson is 0-6 all-time in postseason games. Meanwhile, Rock Springs is hosting its first playoff game since 2002, the longest such streak outside of Farson that will be broken this week. …

Tongue River’s playoff run last year was something else. It was also all on the road. This week, the Eagles host their first playoff game since hosting the 3A title game in 2006. …

Pinedale is in the playoffs for the first time since 2008, a postseason drought that had been the second-longest in the state. Cheyenne South, meanwhile, is in the playoffs for the first time in its five-year history. That leaves Wyoming Indian (20 years) and Moorcroft (eight years) with the longest active playoff droughts in the state. …

There’s three first-time matchups in the quarterfinals this year: Pinedale/Big Horn, Saratoga/Upton-Sundance and Burlington/Kaycee. …

Casper rivals Kelly Walsh and Natrona meet in the playoffs for the fifth time in their Oil City rivalry. Natrona has won the previous four, including last year. …

On to the picks, where the team I think will win is indicated in bold and most of them are home teams because this is the playoffs and normally in the playoffs the home team is the favorite so a lot of home teams are bolded because they’re good:

Class 4A
(8) Cheyenne South at (1) Gillette: Gillette beat South 46-28 in their first game against each other this season. It wasn’t that close. And South comes into the playoffs riding a six-game losing streak. So much for momentum. (First playoff meeting.)
(5) Natrona at (4) Kelly Walsh: This will probably be the best game of the quarterfinals, regardless of classification. I go with the Trojans because of the past four weeks: KW is 4-0, including a victory against Natrona; NC is 1-3. Nevertheless, count on a ton of nibbled-off fingernails littering Harry Geldien Stadium by this one’s end. (Rematch of a 4A quarterfinal playoff game from last season.)
(7) Cheyenne East at (2) Sheridan: East has a better-than-average chance to upset Sheridan. The Broncs barely squeaked past the Thunderbirds in Week 3 in Cheyenne (21-16). But the Broncs are at home this time, and that will help. (First playoff meeting since 2013 4A semifinals.)
(6) Laramie at (3) Rock Springs: Laramie is a tough first-round matchup for Rock Springs, and the Plainsmen have the talent and the confidence to pull off the upset. But Rock Springs has the edge in history (beat Laramie 29-21 in Laramie earlier this season) and in offensive firepower (112 combined points the last two games). (First playoff meeting since 1998 4A semifinals.)
Class 3A
(4W) Cody at (1E) Douglas: The Bearcats handled the Broncs fairly easily back in Week 2, 36-12 in Cody. Douglas has the upper hand in the rematch at home. (Rematch of 2014 3A championship.)
(3E) Riverton at (2W) Star Valley: This is the matchup Riverton wanted to avoid. Now? They’ve got to go to Afton to play a team that beat them 49-7 back in Week 2. (First playoff meeting since 2013 3A quarterfinals.)
(4E) Lander at (1W) Powell: Both teams are in the seed they’re in, at least in part, because of a coin flip. But the circumstances are very, very different. (First playoff meeting since 2012 3A quarterfinals.)
(3W) Green River at (2E) Torrington: The top three teams out of the West are all contenders for a title. Oh, and Green River beat Torrington 28-14 in Torrington in Week 3. The Wolves should be confident. (First playoff meeting since 1954 Class A semifinals.)
Class 2A
(4E) Newcastle at (1W) Mountain View: They’ve met in the playoffs in 2012, 2013 and 2014. The home team has won every time. Let’s stick with that trend. And to boot, Mountain View has won 13 straight at home, the longest active home winning streak in Wyoming. (First playoff meeting since 2014 2A semifinals.)
(3W) Pinedale at (2E) Big Horn: The idea of “mystery” is quaint in 2016, when we have Hudl and any other number of ways of getting film on an opponent. Still, it’s fun to think what might happen when two teams who have never played each other, ever, get together. (Obviously, first meeting.)
(4W) Lyman at (1E) Glenrock: Two weeks ago, the Herders went down to Lyman and got a true test before winning 22-12. Glenrock will be ready for the rematch — no sneaking up on them. (First playoff meeting since 2011 2A semifinals.)
(3E) Wheatland at (2W) Greybull: Even though it comes in at 4-4, Wheatland is still the defending 2A champion. But do you think that means anything to the Buffs — who are 7-1, with the lone loss by a single point? (Rematch of a 2A semifinal playoff game from last season.)
Class 1A 11-man
(4E) Southeast at (1W) Shoshoni: As punishment for winning the top seed from the West, the Wranglers draw Southeast — the team that’s been their nemesis the past two seasons — out of the East. It’ll be closer this time, but the Cyclones definitely have the mental edge in this one. (Rematch of a quarterfinal game from last season, obviously.)
(3W) Cokeville at (2E) Tongue River: I know I said Natrona-Kelly Walsh will probably be the best game of the quarterfinals. Looking at this game, though, I might want to change my vote. The road team has won the last two; I think a home team is due to win one. (Rematch of a quarterfinal game from last season, again, obviously.)
(4W) Saratoga at (1E) Upton-Sundance: Upton-Sundance is an undefeated juggernaut right now. Saratoga, politely, is not. (First meeting of Saratoga with the Upton-Sundance co-op; Saratoga last met Sundance in the 2005 2A semifinals and Upton in the 1975 Class B semis.)
(3E) Pine Bluffs at (2W) Rocky Mountain: Of all the picks I had to make this week, this one may have been the most difficult. When you have what appear to be equal teams on paper, you go with the home team. (First playoff meeting since 1994 1A semifinals.)
Class 1A six-man
(4E) Hanna at (1W) Farson: Farson’s unbeaten season has been special. Hanna hasn’t beaten another team in the six-man playoff field. Advantage, Farson. (First playoff meeting.)
(3W) Snake River at (2E) Guernsey-Sunrise: I’ve had a difficult time getting a feel for the Rattlers. If they play to their potential, they can beat anyone in the bracket. If they don’t, the Vikings could win by 30. (First playoff meeting since 2014 1A six-man semifinals.)
(4W) Burlington at (1E) Kaycee: Of all three potential first-round draws for Kaycee, Burlington may be the toughest. The Huskies are capable of hanging with the defending champs. If the Buckaroos don’t play sharp, this is a potential 4 over 1 upset in the making. (First meeting.)
(3E) Midwest at (2W) Meeteetse: Midwest could stay with Meeteetse. But “stay with” and “beat” have different definitions, and the Longhorns are going to be tough for the Oilers to beat. (First playoff meeting since the 2013 1A six-man championship.)

For a full schedule with kickoff times, click here. For brackets of all five classifications, click here.

As for me? Just an amazing week of picks last week is all… Hashtag thanks Kelly Walsh.

Last week: 32-1 (97 percent). This season: 223-47 (83 percent).

The postseason is here. Who’s ready to spring an upset? Who’s ready to start a championship run? Leave a comment and we can talk about it….

–patrick