When Green River and Riverton play each other, home field means everything.
In the 34 games between the Wolves and Wolverines, both teams have had pretty good success against the other at home, but road games have been much tougher.
Riverton has won 11 of its 18 games against Green River on its home field. But on the road, the Wolverines have won only once in 16 games.
In the case of this series, where the game is played has a huge influence on the outcome. That difference of .549 points in winning percentage is the highest difference between home and road games of any in-state series in the state with at least 20 games played.
They play each other Friday. And it’s critical to note that the game will be in Green River.
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When Mountain View and Kemmerer play, home field means everything, too.
Just the other way around.
In the 36 games between the Buffalos and Rangers, each team has had more success on the road.
Mountain View has won 14 games in 19 tries in Kemmerer but has won only six times in 17 games at home. And the .384 points difference between home and road games for those two squads is both extremely weird and the highest among in-state series of at least 20 games.
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Most series slant toward the home team. In fact, the home team wins 56 percent of the time in Wyoming high school football games, and every active Wyoming program has a better winning percentage at home than on the road.
But when we break down home-field winning percentage to a team-by-team series level, some weird anomalies — like the Riverton-Green River series and the Kemmerer-Mountain View series — emerge.
I’ve broken out some of the top series where home field seems to bring good luck or bad luck to the home teams. I looked at all in-state series of at least 20 games played of active programs only (plus Upton and Sundance). Oddly enough, three of the top eight involve Green River. Here’s what I found:
Series record is at least a +.300 difference (home teams win more often)
1. Green River-Riverton (Green River .938 at home, Riverton .611 at home, .549 difference, 34 games)
2. Kemmerer-Thermopolis (Kemmerer .818 at home, Thermopolis .667 at home, .485 difference, 28 games)
3. Rocky Mountain-Wind River (Rocky Mountain .933 at home, Wind River .545 at home, .479 difference, 26 games)
4. Sundance-Wright (Sundance .769 at home, Wright .636 at home, .406 difference, 24 games)
5. Cody-Green River (Cody .833 at home, Green River .600 at home, .433 difference, 22 games)
6. Greybull-Lander (Greybull .727 home, Lander .694 at home, .422 difference, 30 games)
7. Cheyenne Central-Gillette (Central .680 at home, Gillette .720 at home, .400 difference, 50 games)
8. Cheyenne East-Green River (East .692 at home, Green River .700 at home, .392 difference, 23 games)
9. Glenrock-Moorcroft (Glenrock .833 at home, Moorcroft .550 at home, .383 difference, 22 games)
10. Midwest-Tongue River (Midwest .667 at home, Tongue River .692 at home, .359 difference, 25 games)
Other series where there’s at least a .300-point difference: Gillette-Green River (Gillette .909 home, Green River .444 at home, .354 difference, 20 games); Jackson-Worland (Jackson .615 at home, Worland .737 at home, .352 difference, 32 games); Lander-Star Valley (Lander .462 at home, Star Valley .867 at home, .328 difference, 29 games); Hanna-Pinedale (Hanna .778 at home, Pinedale .550 at home, .328 difference, 20 games); Buffalo-Glenrock (Buffalo .889 at home, Glenrock .437 at home, .326 difference, 34 games); Kelly Walsh-Laramie (Kelly Walsh .611 at home, Laramie .714 at home, .325 difference, 39 games); Cokeville-Mountain View (Cokeville .813 at home, Mountain View .500 at home, .313 difference, 52 games); Cheyenne East-Sheridan (East .538 at home, Sheridan .773 at home, .311 difference, 36 games); Cheyenne East-Rock Springs (East .696 at home, Rock Springs .611 at home, .307 difference, 41 games); Powell-Star Valley (Powell .471 at home, Star Valley .833 at home, .304 difference, 36 games); Rawlins-Torrington (Rawlins .333 at home, Torrington .969 at home, .302 difference, 31 games); Burlington-Wyoming Indian (Burlington 1.00 at home, Wyoming Indian .300 at home, .300 difference, 21 games); Newcastle-Thermopolis (Newcastle .500 home, Thermopolis .800 at home, .300 difference, 25 games); Gillette-Rock Springs (Gillette .900 at home, Rock Springs .400 at home, .300 difference, 20 games).
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Now for the even weirder anomaly: Series where the road team wins more often. The Kemmerer-Mountain View series is by far the most unusual statistical series in home-road difference:
Series record is at least a -.100 difference (road teams win more often)
1. Kemmerer-Mountain View (Kemmerer .263 at home, Mountain View .353 at home, -.384 difference, 36 games)
2. Pinedale-Saratoga (Pinedale .385 at home, Saratoga .357 at home, -.258 difference, 28 games)
3. Evanston-Laramie (Evanston .417 at home, Laramie .385 at home, -.199 difference, 25 games)
4. Cody-Star Valley (Cody .231 at home, Star Valley .588 at home, -.198 difference, 27 games)
5. Lingle-Southeast (Lingle .222 at home, Southeast .588 at home, -.190 difference, 36 games)
6. Green River-Laramie (Green River .385 at home, Laramie .433 at home, -.182 difference, 28 games)
7. (tie) Moorcroft-Newcastle (Moorcroft .273 at home, Newcastle .556 at home, -.172 difference, 20 games)
7. (tie) Riverside-Shoshoni (Riverside .556 at home, Shoshoni .273 at home, -.172 difference, 20 games)
9. Powell-Thermopolis (Powell .727 at home, Thermopolis .125 at home, -.148 difference, 47 games)
10. (tie) Buffalo-Thermopolis (Buffalo .429 at home, Thermopolis .429 at home, -.143 difference, 49 games)
10. (tie) Natrona-Riverton (Natrona .857 at home, Riverton .000 at home, -.143 difference, 26 games)
Other series where there’s at least a -.100-point difference: Cody-Rawlins (Cody .667 at home, Rawlins .211 at home, -.123 difference, 37 games); Lusk-Pine Bluffs (Lusk .765 at home, Pine Bluffs .118 at home, -.118 difference, 35 games); Dubois-Wind River (Dubois .412 at home, Wind River .474 at home, -.115 difference, 37 games) Douglas-Midwest (Douglas .692 at home, Midwest .200 at home, -.108 difference, 24 games); Pine Bluffs-Southeast (Pine Bluffs .211 at home, Southeast .684 at home, -.105 difference, 39 games); Glenrock-Thermopolis (Glenrock .563 at home, Thermopolis .333 at home, -.104 difference, 32 games); Buffalo-Torrington (Buffalo .400 at home, Torrington .500 at home, -.100 difference, 38 games); Glenrock-Lingle (Glenrock .750 at home, Lingle .15o at home, -.100 difference, 23 games); Glenrock-Wright (Glenrock .800 at home, Wright .100 at home, -.100 difference, 20 games)
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Some thoughts on the first full week of football in the Equality State:
The underrated game of the week will be Big Piney-Shoshoni. Both programs should be improved, but I like Shoshoni’s chances. … It’s not necessarily an upset pick, but I’ve got St. Stephens beating Rock River for the program’s first victory since coming back to the varsity level in 2013. … Central-South will be a doozy. This one will be good for lots of reasons, chief among them is that both programs need this victory to rebuild confidence after tough losses last week. … I’m also keeping a close eye on Rocky Mountain-Tongue River. The Eagles’ success last year was in part spurred on by their big W over the Grizzlies in Week 1 last year. … I know I talked a lot about Green River-Riverton, but I’m actually taking the road team (Riverton) this time. But watch out for Green River. I think the Wolves will be better this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win at home. Obviously.
On to this week’s picks. As usual, projected winners are bolded. Because italics are for tiddlywinks.
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne South
Cheyenne East at Natrona
Evanston at Gillette
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan
Laramie at Rock Springs
Class 3A
Cody at Buffalo
Douglas at Powell
Riverton at Green River
Worland at Lander
Class 2A
Lovell at Big Horn
Lyman at Wheatland
Pinedale at Thermopolis
Class 1A 11-man
Lusk at Burlington
Moorcroft at Wyoming Indian
Rocky Mountain at Tongue River
Saratoga at Lingle
Wind River at Upton-Sundance
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Midwest
Hulett at Meeteetse
Snake River at Hanna
Ten Sleep at Kaycee
Interclass
Big Piney at Shoshoni
Glenrock at Torrington
Mountain View at Cokeville
Pine Bluffs at Burns
Rawlins at Kemmerer
Southeast at Wright
Interstate
Newcastle at Lead-Deadwood, S.D.
North Fremont, Idaho, at Jackson
Star Valley at Preston, Idaho
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey-Sunrise at Dubois
St. Stephens at Rock River
Open: NSI.
Riverside has forfeited its Week 1 game against Greybull.
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Brothers Tad and Homer have their picks to make, too. Here’s who they’ve got winning this week, starting with the games that they’ve picked differently, and the records on which they based those picks (Greybull-Riverside pick removed but record retained):
Tad: Worland over Lander; Lusk over Burlington; Moorcroft over Wyoming Indian; Guernsey-Sunrise over Dubois; Torrington over Glenrock; Pine Bluffs over Burns.
Homer: Lander over Worland; Burlington over Lusk; Wyoming Indian over Moorcroft; Dubois over Guernsey-Sunrise; Glenrock over Torrington; Burns over Pine Bluffs.
Both: Cheyenne Central over Cheyenne South; Natrona over Cheyenne East; Gillette over Evanston; Sheridan over Kelly Walsh; Laramie over Rock Springs; Cody over Buffalo; Powell over Douglas; Green River over Riverton; Big Horn over Lovell; Wheatland over Lyman; Thermopolis over Pinedale; Rocky Mountain over Tongue River; Lingle over Saratoga; Upton-Sundance over Wind River; Midwest over Farson; Hulett over Meeteetse; Rock River over St. Stephens; Hanna over Snake River; Kaycee over Ten Sleep; Shoshoni over Big Piney; Cokeville over Mountain View; Rawlins over Kemmerer; Southeast over Wright; Lead-Deadwood, S.D., over Newcastle; Jackson over North Fremont, Idaho; Star Valley over Preston, Idaho.
The records
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne South (Central 3-1 overall, Central 2-0 at this location)
Cheyenne East at Natrona (Natrona 40-18 overall, Natrona 21-9 at this location)
Evanston at Gillette (Gillette 9-2 overall, Gillette 4-1 at this location)
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan (Sheridan 32-21 overall, Sheridan 20-9 at this location)
Laramie at Rock Springs (Laramie 47-33 overall, Laramie 20-18 at this location)
Class 3A
Cody at Buffalo (Cody 4-2-1 overall, Cody 1-0 at this location)
Douglas at Powell (Powell 7-2 overall, tie 1-1 at this location)
Riverton at Green River (Green River 22-12 overall, Green River 15-1 at this location)
Worland at Lander (Worland 44-37-1 overall, Lander 21-20 at this location)
Class 2A
Lovell at Big Horn (Big Horn 3-1; tie 1-1 at this location)
Lyman at Wheatland (Wheatland 3-1 overall, Wheatland 1-0 at this location)
Pinedale at Thermopolis (Thermopolis 7-1 overall, Thermopolis 2-1 at this location)
Class 1A 11-man
Lusk at Burlington (Lusk 3-0 overall, first at this location)
Moorcroft at Wyoming Indian (Moorcroft 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Rocky Mountain at Tongue River (Rocky Mountain 12-4 overall, Rocky Mountain 6-2 at this location)
Saratoga at Lingle (Lingle 17-9 overall, Lingle 9-5 at this location)
Wind River at Upton-Sundance (Upton-Sundance 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Midwest (Midwest 5-2 overall, Midwest 3-0 at this location)
Guernsey-Sunrise at Dubois (Guernsey-Sunrise 3-2 overall, Dubois 1-0 at this location)
Hulett at Meeteetse (Meeteetse 5-4 overall, Meeteetse 3-0 at this location)
St. Stephens at Rock River (Rock River 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Snake River at Hanna (Hanna 7-6 overall, Hanna 3-2 at this location)
Ten Sleep at Kaycee (Kaycee 5-1 overall, Kaycee 2-0 at this location)
Interclass
Big Piney at Shoshoni (tie 1-1 overall, Shoshoni 1-0 at this location)
Glenrock at Torrington (Torrington 12-6 overall, Glenrock 5-4 at this location)
Mountain View at Cokeville (Cokeville 33-18-1 overall, Cokeville 19-4-1 at this location)
Pine Bluffs at Burns (Pine Bluffs 29-21 overall, tie 11-11 at this location)
Rawlins at Kemmerer (Rawlins 18-6-2 overall, Rawlins 8-4 at this location)
Riverside at Greybull (Greybull 15-13 overall, tie 7-7 at this location)
Southeast at Wright (Southeast 6-3 overall, Southeast 2-1 at this location)
Interstate
Newcastle at Lead-Deadwood, S.D. (Lead-Deadwood 25-17-1 overall, Lead-Deadwood 15-6 at this location)
North Fremont, Idaho, at Jackson (Jackson 4-3 overall, Jackson 2-1 at this location)
Star Valley at Preston, Idaho (Star Valley 7-3 overall, Star Valley 2-1 at this location)
Weekly reminder: Tad picks the series leader; Homer picks the location leader; when a series is tied, both Tad and Homer pick the home team.
Last week’s records: Patrick, 7-3; Tad, 6-4; Homer, 6-4.
Season records: Patrick, 7-3; Tad, 6-4; Homer, 6-4.
And now it’s your turn. Who’s your choice for a big blowout or a surprising upset in Week 1? Post a comment and let’s get the 2015 season going right!
–patrick