What if: Wyoming doesn’t change its high school options? (circa 2023)

Note: This is the first of a three-part series examining what Wyoming’s high school sports scene might look like in nine years.

Welcome to 2023. Wyoming is getting along fine. Mineral prices are consistent but not enough to give the state cause to expand its option. The state’s been careful with its money, and issued a mandate on high school construction: nothing brand new, but nothing shut down.

After all, Wyoming has entered an unprecedented level of stability for its high schools.

As of now, the last Wyoming high school to close was Albin in 2003. The 11-year gap since Wyoming’s last high school closure is the state’s longest such gap since at least World War II — and may be the state’s longest such streak, ever.

Since Wyoming’s last two-year high school closed in 1951, here’s when public high schools around the state have closed:

1954: Manville
1956: Ranchester/Dayton (to form Tongue River)
1958: Egbert, McFadden, Reliance, Rozet
1961: Elk Mountain
1962: Superior
1963: Sunrise
1966: Hawk Springs/Veteran/Yoder (to form Goshen Hole)
1969: Morton/Pavillion (to form Wind River), Hillsdale
1971: Carpenter
sometime in the 1970s (exact date unknown): Arvada, Fort Laramie
1980: Huntley/Goshen Hole (to form Southeast)
1983: Cowley/Deaver-Frannie/Byron (to form Rocky Mountain)
1987: Basin/Manderson (to form Riverside)
1992: LaGrange
1997: Jeffrey City
1998: Medicine Bow
2003: Albin

However, the state has by far closed more high schools than it has opened. In the same time period, five new public high schools have opened in Wyoming, and three of them (Cheyenne East in 1960, Cheyenne South in 2009 and Kelly Walsh in 1965) have been in the state’s population centers. The only other two public schools to open in that time were Wyoming Indian (1972) and Wright (1983). In short, it’s been 31 years since a small Wyoming town has opened its own high school, and none are on the horizon.

Now, the question: Can Wyoming reach an even 20 years (2023 in our dream scenario) without losing or adding another high school?

If so, this is how the state’s enrollments would look in 2023, based on this fall’s K-3 enrollment provided at the Wyoming Department of Education website.

Enrollments for Lusk and Rocky Mountain have been adjusted to account for virtual enrollment; enrollment for Wyoming Indian has been adjusted per the WHSAA’s standard WIHS allowance; enrollments for Casper and Cheyenne have been split evenly among those schools.

Keep in mind that elementary enrollment is usually quite a bit larger than eventual high school enrollment, due to dropouts and other factors.

1. Gillette, 2,938
2/3. Kelly Walsh/Natrona: 2,160
4. Rock Springs, 1,901
5/6/7. Cheyenne Central/East/South, 1,534
8. Laramie, 1,302
9. Sheridan, 1,136
10. Jackson, 969 (935 with Alta Elementary students removed)
11. Evanston, 920
12. Riverton, 911
13. Green River, 905
14. Star Valley, 769
15. Cody, 667
16. Rawlins, 607
17. Powell, 596
18. Douglas, 556
19. Worland, 454
20. Lander, 426
21. Buffalo, 363
22. Pinedale, 343
23. Torrington, 339
24. Wheatland, 312
25. Lyman, 255
26. Mountain View, 248
27. Newcastle, 244
28. Lovell, 237
29. Kemmerer, 234
30. Glenrock, 230
31. Big Piney, 206
32. Moorcroft, 196
33. Burns, 187
34. Thermopolis, 179
35. Tongue River, 173
36. Greybull, 162
37. Wright, 161
38. Wyoming Indian, 156 (adjusted per WHSAA guidelines)
39. Pine Bluffs, 123
40. Sundance, 120
41. Wind River, 119
42. Lusk, 118
43. Big Horn, 117
44. Shoshoni, 117
45. Rocky Mountain, 104
46. Saratoga, 90
47. Riverside, 86
48. Upton, 80
49. Lingle, 79
50. Southeast, 77
51. NSI, 76
52. Cokeville, 75
53. St. Stephens, 70
54. Burlington, 68
55. Hanna, 66
56. Guernsey, 64
57. Snake River, 62
58. Encampment, 53
59. Dubois, 50
60. Midwest, 49
61. Kaycee, 45
62. Farson, 44
63. Hulett, 38
64. Meeteetse, 29
65. Arvada-Clearmont, 26
66. Ten Sleep, 25
67. Chugwater, 20
68. Rock River, 17
69. Glendo, 12

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Using these enrollments as guidelines, we can take a peek into what the classifications and potential conferences for Wyoming might look like in 2023. With no changes in the number of schools, there wouldn’t be any reason to change the classification cutoffs…:

Football conferences
Class 4A: Gillette, Kelly Walsh, Natrona, Rock Springs, Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Laramie, Sheridan, Jackson.
Class 3A East: Riverton, Rawlins, Douglas, Lander, Buffalo, Worland.
Class 3A West: Evanston, Green River, Star Valley, Cody, Powell, Pinedale.
(Or a 3A North with Cody, Powell, Riverton, Douglas, Buffalo and Worland and a 3A South with Evanston, Green River, Star Valley, Pinedale, Rawlins and Lander.)
Class 2A East: Torrington, Wheatland, Newcastle, Glenrock, Moorcroft, Burns, Tongue River.
Class 2A West: Lyman, Mountain View, Lovell, Kemmerer, Big Piney, Thermopolis, Greybull.
Class 1A 11-man East: Wright, Pine Bluffs, Sundance, Lusk, Big Horn, Upton, Lingle, Southeast.
Class 1A 11-man West: Wyoming Indian, Wind River, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Saratoga, Riverside, Cokeville, Burlington.
(Cokeville and Burlington opting up from six-man.)
Class 1A six-man East: NSI, Hanna, Guernsey, Midwest, Kaycee, Hulett, Rock River.
Class 1A six-man West: St. Stephens, Snake River, Dubois, Farson, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep.

Looks familiar… as Jackson and Evanston switch in 4A/3A and Torrington and Pinedale switch in 3A/2A, the conferences may see some minor adjustments, but nothing drastic.

Here’s what the conferences could look like for other sports:

Conferences for other sports
Class 4A East: Gillette, Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Laramie, Sheridan.
Class 4A West: Kelly Walsh, Natrona, Rock Springs, Jackson, Evanston, Riverton.
Class 3A East: Rawlins, Douglas, Worland, Lander, Buffalo, Torrington, Wheatland, Newcastle.
Class 3A West: Green River, Star Valley, Cody, Powell, Pinedale, Lyman, Mountain View, Lovell.
Class 2A Northeast: Moorcroft, Tongue River, Sundance, Big Horn, Upton.
Class 2A Southeast: Glenrock, Burns, Wright, Pine Bluffs, Lusk.
Class 2A Northwest: Thermopolis, Greybull, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Riverside.
Class 2A Southwest: Kemmerer, Big Piney, Wyoming Indian, Wind River, Saratoga.
Class 1A Northeast: NSI, Midwest, Kaycee, Hulett, Arvada-Clearmont.
Class 1A Southeast: Lingle, Southeast, Guernsey, Chugwater, Rock River, Glendo.
Class 1A Northwest: St. Stephens, Burlington, Dubois, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep.
Class 1A Southwest: Cokeville, Hanna, Snake River, Encampment, Farson.

The biggest changes here are Jackson to 4A, Green River to 3A, and Glenrock to 2A; the other changes between 3A/2A and 2A/1A have been seen before.

Based on the elementary enrollments, the biggest changes in the next 10 years appear to be coming in some expected places. The biggest jumps look to be in Jackson and Gillette, and that could cause some pretty dramatic shifts in the 4A and 3A classifications.

But what if Wyoming bucked its recent trend of closing schools and actually went the OTHER way — by opening some new schools?

Tomorrow: What if: Wyoming expands its high school options?

–patrick