2013 Wyoming football picks, part 1: Class 1A six-man

In preparation for the second annual Wyoming Sports Preview Guide magazine, I’ve spent the last two months talking to football coaches across the state. So far, I’ve talked to 62 of the 64 coaches (NSI doesn’t have a coach yet, and for one school I talked to an assistant coach rather than the head coach).

A standard question I asked every coach was to pick the favorite in their conference. In asking that question, something became clear — sometimes, the coaches are just as uncertain about who should be the favorites as the guys asking the question.

Just like in previous years, I’m posting my predictions for the standings for each classification and conference. But new this year is the “Confidence Index,” a number that demonstrates my faith that I’ve picked that team’s placing correctly. The “Confidence Index” has no basis in math; it’s more an instinctual feeling than anything.

As we progress, you’ll notice some classifications and conferences have a higher overall confidence than others. That’s not a mistake. Some classes are easier to pick than others — both for me and for the coaches.

The picks will start today with the classification with the smallest schools, Class 1A six-man:

THE PICKS
East: Midwest, Guernsey, Saratoga, Hulett, Kaycee, Hanna, NSI. West: Dubois, Meeteetse, Snake River, Wyoming Indian, Farson, St. Stephens, Ten Sleep.

THE TEAMS
Midwest
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: Almost every coach in six-man says this is the Oilers’ year to break through. I agree.

Guernsey
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Guernsey will challenge the best teams in six-man this year. To finish this high, though, they’ll have to win a bevy of tough games.

Saratoga
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The transition from 11-man to six-man will be good for the Panthers, and I’m all but certain they’ll make the playoffs. But the steep learning curve may keep them from hosting in the first round.

Hulett
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Hulett is a genuine middle-of-the-pack team. The game against Kaycee in Week 4 may be for a playoff spot.

Kaycee
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: I think I have Kaycee too low. But I also think the four teams I have ahead of them are better teams – this year. One upset will be all Kaycee needs to make the postseason.

Hanna
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Hanna won’t be an easy team to beat. However, a coaching change plus a lack of depth probably means this won’t be the Miners’ year to make a deep playoff run.

NSI
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’m so scared to put the Wolves here. Six-man could be the program’s niche. As it stands, though, the lack of certainty about the program’s makeup from year to year forces me to have them here.

Dubois
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: Just like Midwest in the East, Dubois in the West was basically a unanimous No. 1 choice from the coaches. I trust them.

Meeteetse
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: The Longhorns are poised to be one of six-man’s toughest teams to beat this fall. Even so, I’m not sure if it’s enough to oust Dubois as the favorite.

Snake River
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I put the Rattlers here out of respect for the program and the tradition it has. What scares me is that the team lost basically all the experience it had to graduation, and the players coming back are untested.

Wyoming Indian
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: I think the Chiefs could finish even higher than this, but I hesitate to put them any higher because of (1) history and (2) the six-man learning curve. The Week 6 showdown vs. Snake looms huge.

Farson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the Pronghorns are steadily improving, and they have what it takes to notch a couple victories this year. But that’s it.

St. Stephens
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence: 65 percent
Why?: The Eagles are young and inexperienced. They’ll struggle in their first year of varsity play. But they’ve got enough going right to pull a surprise or two.

Ten Sleep
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence: 50 percent
My gut says: The Pioneers only anticipate having seven players. They’re two injuries away from not even having a team. That won’t make them pushovers, though.

THE PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Midwest over Wyoming Indian, Guernsey over Snake River, Meeteetse over Saratoga, Dubois over Hulett; semifinals, Midwest over Meeteetse, Dubois over Guernsey; championship, Dubois over Midwest.

Six-man football has generally been upset-free in its short history, but the classification has more teams — and now more parity — than in previous years. That could make for a fun, unpredictable season.

Tomorrow: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick