The start of the 2011 season is now less than three months away. It’s just about this time every year that I start thinking about high school football in earnest. These are some of the questions that have been bouncing around my head the past few weeks:
1. Can the Douglas win streak keep going? The streak is now at 30 or 31 games, depending on how you count. Either way, what the Bearcats have done the past three seasons demands respect and inspires disbelief. Stringing together back-to-back undefeated seasons and three consecutive state titles is exceedingly rare. Whether Douglas can continue the rampage across Class 3A in 2011 remains to be seen; maintaining a streak like that, no matter the talent level, is incredibly difficult. Of course, a streak doesn’t become a streak unless you can overcome all of that anyway….
2. Can Rawlins and Shoshoni end their losing streaks? Rawlins has lost 23 consecutive games, Shoshoni 19. Will those streaks come to an end in 2011? For the sake of those programs and those communities, let’s hope so. Rawlins may have the tougher go, as the Outlaws face seven Class 3A foes and open with Sidney, Neb., and Rawlins hasn’t beaten a team from its own classification since 2006. Shoshoni, meanwhile, was an extremely young team last year and another year of maturation might help the Wranglers not only break the streak, but crawl into playoff contention, too.
3. How will reclassification affect things? This year, five schools — Green River, Wheatland, Wyoming Indian, Dubois and Hulett — have dropped in classification. But a change in classification doesn’t necessarily mean a change in results on the field. The last three schools to drop in classification all saw mixed results: Greybull went from 2-7 to 1-7 after going from 3A to 2A in 2007; Southeast went from 10-1 to 11-0 after going from 2A to 1A in 2007; and Riverton went from 1-8 to 4-6 after going from 5A (now 4A) to 3A in 2009. Dropping a classification, then, is no guarantee of success.
4. How will Cheyenne South do in its first varsity year? Cheyenne South’s first year of varsity football will be handicapped by the most obvious of missing elements: no seniors. But the Bison also have to overcome a brutal three-week stretch to open the season: at defending state champion Natrona in Week 0; hosting perennial power Cheyenne Central in Week 1; at Sheridan, last year’s 4A runner-up, in Week 2. If the Bison can survive that three-week stretch without losing confidence, they could climb into the postseason in their first year — but the question is, can a team with no seniors maintain the needed confidence to face the rigors of a 4A schedule week in and week out?
5. Will parity rule in 4A? I didn’t realize this before I started writing this post, but think about this: In the past seven years, the Class 4A/5A championship has been won by six different schools. Gillette is the only school to win the title twice in the past seven years, winning it all in 2006 and 2008, but Cheyenne East, Green River, Cheyenne Central, Natrona and Sheridan have all won titles since 2004 in Wyoming’s big-school classification, too. Will we see a school that hasn’t won a title in that span (Rock Springs, Laramie, Evanston, Kelly Walsh or South) continue this run of juggling at the top at the end of this season?
What do you think will be some things to watch in 2011? Post your thoughts below and we can start talking about what should be an exciting year….
–patrick
Reasons Bearcat winning streak could end: Tough Schedule (Green River, Cody, Star Valley, Buffalo, Lander Valley all in the first five weeks ouch… If that not enough they have Riverton on the road in week seven (who is my sleeper pick).There are no cupcakes on this schedule.
Reasons the streak will continue: Experience
Even though the Bearcats graduated a talented group of seniors they have dominated the class for so long that the reserves have been battle tested as if they were starters. The seniors hardly played an entire game last year providing ample opportunity for the juniors to gain real game experience not to mention their JV’s were as tough as nails.
Bottom line streak or no streak expect the Bearcats to be in Laramie again.
I think Douglas will have a great year but don’t think anyone will be unbeaten all year in 3a. They have great kids,coaches and fans and know how to win so I wouldn’t bet against them in any game. Rawlins may win 1 but that’s about all.I think Green River will do well but Cody,Douglas,Buffalo etc. aren’t going to be easy so will probably make playoffs and hard to say after that. South is going to have a long year. 4a is tough and show no mercy to weaker teams.
Agreed with both of you. If any team can go undefeated in 3A this year, it’s Douglas, but I think there is just too much parity in that classification to think that anyone will do that. If I were a betting man, I would bet on no undefeated 3A team this season. Fortunately, I’m too poor to gamble. 🙂
It seems like most teams in 3A this year have a realistic chance at winning it all. The interesting thing will be to see if the teams that are playing well in November are the same teams that are playing well in August. Most of the time, the first two or three weeks give us a clear-cut favorite or two; that probably won’t be the case in 3A this year.
–patrick
After dropping off the map last year–wanting to see how Kemmerer and Glenrock Rebound. Also anxious to see if Thermop can keep things rolling after losing their talented seniors. Should be an interesting year in 2A. GO RANGERS!
the best team in 3A next year will be Cody. Douglas, Buffalo, and Green River are right up there with them, though. Worland might finally have a dominant offensive line this upcoming year, something they haven’t had for a while. If they can get the athletes they need then running back Bronson Hernandez should have a stellar year. Hernandez and Bru Swing will be the anchors of that defense, also, as they have been starting at the linebacker position since they were sophomores. Worland is my sleeper team for this upcoming season.
Not only a reclassification with Green River coming into 3A, but also a conference restructuring. Lander playing the East (as I understand it) will bring a solid program with some very good returning talent and improve the overall depth of that conference. I’m sure the Tigers aren’t exactly looking forward to the trip to Torrington mileage-wise, but it happens. Gotta believe Cody is the team to beat in the 3A West with Powell bringing back a lot of skill position guys also. The Braves have a road-heavy front half of the schedule with long trips to Cody, Worland and Douglas; anybody got a plane?
Can’t wait for the season, hope everybody has an injury-free summer
OK, so here’s another thought: The only two teams in 3A that may not be better than they were last year are Douglas and Buffalo…. Cody, Lander and Powell will all be better because of their experience back; Riverton and Worland are under the radar a bit but should be better than a year ago; Green River matches up talent-wise with any 3A team; Torrington has a new coach and that may bring about some positive change; haven’t even mentioned Star Valley yet…. Wow. Just wow. I said it before, but it’s worth repeating: The 3A classification may be the best in the state this year from top to bottom. So much parity. So much unpredictability. It will be the most fun classification to watch, that’s for sure.
rangerfan, to me, the 2A class seems down as a whole this year, but that may make for some more interesting football. No teams mowing through the field like Big Horn and Thermopolis did last year. I like Lovell and Lyman in the West, but I think Big Piney and Kemmerer could be sleepers (don’t ever take either one of those programs lightly). I think Thermopolis is down a bit, but will still be in the playoff hunt and could get in as the third or fourth seed. It will probably be a bit tougher for Thermop in the West than it was in the East. In the East, Wheatland coming down will be tough but the Bulldogs lost a lot of talented players from last year’s team… That said, I think Burns is ready for a breakthrough, Big Horn will probably qualify again, and Newcastle, despite losing a lot of talent, is steadily gaining some consistency as a program. It will be interesting to see how Glenrock responds after falling on hard times last year.
BTW, this week is Chadron football camp week. I know a lot of Wyoming teams go to that camp. If anyone went to the camp, or knows folks that did, and wants to share some insights from the week, I’d love to hear it.
–patrick
Worland is looking like they will be better than last year, as they have implemented a new offense that will benefit their running game more. I already have Week 4 andWeek 8 marked on my calendar for match-ups with Star Valley and Cody, respectively. I think these three teams will be running the table in the West.
I do think that the games are going to be closer in the 3A West this year overall. When you look at the rosters, there are going to be a lot of new quarterbacks taking on a starting role, even if they have had some experience. One team that isn’t going to have that issue is Powell and they have some great skill position kids coming back. If they have some solid line play (and I can never tell from year to year to be honest) I think they will be right there for the conference title. As for the Braves, I love the kids we have coming back from the skill positions. The majority of our rushing yards and the vast majority of our receiving yards will be back, but the lines will be young. Our season is going to depend on just how good of a summer those kids have. A lot of potential, but that doesn’t win games in September and October.
Just one more thought, I can see the high school season being all the more exciting with the NFL potentially losing games. I can already sense a higher interest in the Cowboys and I think fans are going to be extra keen on high school and college ball this fall. Should be a great time to be a Wyoming fan
Riverton went to Chadron and from talking to the team Gillette is really fast and Natrona looked really good. Sounded like we held our own with KW. When matched against Wheatland they don’t have a great quarterback like last year but looked good. Sounded like we were working on things and checking out new players more than trying to win games. We have 9 starters on offence back so we should be solid there so if the defence comes together don’t count us out. Lots of experiance and quality athletes coming back. Should be a fun season!
Have I mentioned yet that I’m going to love 3A football this year?!?!
You may or may not have seen my name pop up in the Star-Tribune this week as I write some preview stuff on the Shrine Bowl. I was at South practice yesterday and a few guys were talking 3A football…. and Riverton was the dominant team of the conversation. FWIW.
–patrick
In 2a I think Lyman will be tough although they will miss Nate Eyre on the O-line and James Taylor who was probably their best defensive player last year. I believe they will be in the hunt, but will have to abandon their playing 22 different player philosophy at the 2a level. Coach Holmstrom has done a GREAT job with the program, but a standout 2a player tired is still better than a poor one that hasn’t been committed. I still think Kemmerer will be down. Big Piney lost some good kids to graduation, but they are a football town. I believe Mountain View will be much better, and could be a dark horse. I expect them to be very solid on the defensive side of the ball. They will still have to prove to me that they can produce some offense. I hear they look better on that side of the ball this spring, but I hear that every spring…lol. I will be pulling for them every week except the week they play Lyman. Lovell should be tough as always, but until they win the big one I will have to believe they find a way to lose one they shouldn’t. Big Horn has tradition, and that always scares me. I think Thermopolis could take a few lumps this year. I hated to see Coach Cundall get out of it in Greybull. It will be interesting to see what they can come up with. I have trouble believing that Glenrock can be down again….they have got to be due. Hoping to see Lyman beat Mt. View in the State Championship in Laramie in November…lol…That would be fun to see the 2 valley teams mix it up again in the big one like they did 12 years ago. Good luck to all the teams.
I finally got my 1A preseason power poll done. Not a lot of talk surrounding the small schools.
1Cokeville – Defending champ Panthers have a lot returning…as usual.
2Southeast – Not many programs consider a semi-final loss as a down year like the Cyclones.
3Rocky Mtn – Lots of good athletes coming back with experience for the Griz.
4Burlington – Young Huskies team might have 1A’s best player in Anson George.
5Niobrara County – Youth will be served as underclassmen dominate Tigers roster.
6Riverside – Rebels should be considered a contender in the West.
7LFL – Doggers have holes to fill but will be a factor in the East.
8Saratoga – The Panthers program is on the upswing.
9PB – Hornets lost some talented players and have to adjust to coaching change.
10Wind River – After a rebuilding year, Cougars might be dangerous again.
11Sundance – Bulldogs young players need to adjust to varsity competition in a hurry.
12Upton – Lots of young kids got varsity experience and the Bobcats expect to improve in the tough East conference.
13Shoshoni – The Wranglers have a ways to go, but might be on a path towards future success.
14Wyoming Indian – Chiefs might surprise a few teams with drop from 2A ranks.
15NSI – Wolves have tough time developing a program with constant roster changes.