Wyoming high school playoff scenarios entering Week 8, 2020

Here’s a quick look at the playoff scenarios for Wyoming high school football teams entering Week 8 of the 2020 season:

Class 4A
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Cheyenne Central at Laramie; Cheyenne East at Rock Springs; Natrona at Cheyenne South; Thunder Basin at Sheridan.
Cheyenne East: In. Either No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Can still get No. 1 seed with loss; can still get No. 2 seed with victory.
Thunder Basin: In. Seed between No. 1 and No. 3. No. 1 seed with victory in all scenarios. No. 1 seed with loss and Rock Springs victory. No. 2 seed with loss, Laramie victory and East victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Central victory.
Cheyenne Central: In. Seed between No. 2 and No. 4. No. 2 seed with victory and Sheridan victory. No. 3 seed with victory and Thunder Basin victory. No. 3 seed with loss and East victory. No. 3 seed with loss, Rock Springs victory and Sheridan victory. No. 4 seed with loss, Rock Springs victory and Thunder Basin victory.
Rock Springs: In. Seed between No. 3 and No. 5. Can get no higher than a No. 4 seed with loss; either a No. 3, 4 or 5 seed with victory.
Sheridan: In. Seed between No. 4 and No. 6. No. 4 seed with victory in all scenarios. Either a No. 4, 5 or 6 seed with loss.
Natrona: In. Seed between No. 5 and No. 6. No. 5 seed with victory and Thunder Basin victory. No. 6 seed with victory and Sheridan victory. No. 6 seed in all scenarios with loss.
Kelly Walsh: In. No. 7 seed.
Laramie: In. No. 8 seed.
Campbell County, Cheyenne South: Out.
Three-way tie explanation 1: If East, Central and Thunder Basin all finish 7-2 tied for the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds, Thunder Basin would be the 3 seed by virtue of a loss to Sheridan (the highest ranking non-tied team). East then takes the 1 seed due to a head-to-head victory against Central.
Three-way tie explanation 2: If Rock Springs, Sheridan and Central all finish 6-3 tied for the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 seeds, Rock Springs would be the 5 seed by virtue of a loss to Thunder Basin (the highest ranking non-tied team). Central then takes the 3 seed due to a head-to-head victory against Sheridan.
Three-way tie explanation 3: If Natrona, Rock Springs and Sheridan all finish 5-4 tied for the No. 4, 5 and 6 seeds, Rock Springs would be the 4 seed by virtue of a victory against Central (the highest-ranking non-tied team where the tiebreaker applies). Natrona then takes the 5 seed due to a head-to-head victory against Sheridan.
All other tiebreakers in 4A are head-to-head tiebreakers. Because the “highest-ranked non-tied team” tiebreaker breaks all potential three-way ties, score differential should not be necessary.
Note: Tables below updated 11:52 a.m. Monday to reflect that the Kelly Walsh-Campbell County game does not affect the scenarios.

4A scenarios

If Central beats Laramie…

	East	Thunder Basin	Central	Rock Springs	Sheridan	Natrona
East, Natrona, Thunder Basin win	2	1	3	4	6	5
East, Natrona, Sheridan win	1	3	2	5	4	6
East, South, Thunder Basin win	2	1	3	5	4	6
East, South, Sheridan win	1	3	2	5	4	6
Rock Springs, Natrona, Thunder Basin win	2	1	3	4	6	5
Rock Springs, Natrona, Sheridan win	1	3	2	5	4	6
Rock Springs, South, Thunder Basin win	2	1	3	4	5	6
Rock Springs, South, Sheridan win	1	3	2	5	4	6

If Laramie beats Central…

	East	Thunder Basin	Central	Rock Springs	Sheridan	Natrona
East, Natrona, Thunder Basin win	2	1	3	4	6	5
East, Natrona, Sheridan win	1	2	3	5	4	6
East, South, Thunder Basin win	2	1	3	5	4	6
East, South, Sheridan win	1	2	3	5	4	6
Rock Springs, Natrona, Thunder Basin win	2	1	4	3	6	5
Rock Springs, Natrona, Sheridan win	2	1	3	5	4	6
Rock Springs, South, Thunder Basin win	2	1	4	3	5	6
Rock Springs, South, Sheridan win	2	1	3	5	4	6

Class 3A East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Riverton at Rawlins; Worland at Douglas.
Douglas: In. No. 1 seed.
Lander: In. No. 2 seed.
Riverton: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Douglas victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Worland victory.
Worland: In. No. 3 seed with victory and Rawlins victory. No. 4 seed with loss OR Riverton victory.
Buffalo, Rawlins: Out.

Class 3A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Cody at Jackson; Green River at Star Valley; Powell at Evanston.
Jackson: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss.
Cody: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss and Powell victory. No. 2 seed with loss, Evanston victory and Green River victory. No. 3 seed with loss, Evanston victory and Star Valley victory.
Powell: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Green River victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Star Valley victory.
Star Valley: Neither in nor out. No. 2 seed with victory, Jackson victory and Evanston victory. No. 3 seed with victory, Cody victory and Evanston victory. No. 4 seed with victory and Powell victory. Out with loss.
Green River: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory. Out with loss.
Evanston: Out.
Two potential three-way ties exist in 3A West scenarios for Week 8. If Jackson, Star Valley and Powell all win, Cody, Powell and Star Valley tie for second, third and fourth at 3-2. Cody wins with score differential of +5 (Powell 0, Star Valley -5) and is the second seed. Powell is the third seed with head-to-head victory over Star Valley; Star Valley is the fourth seed. … If Evanston and Green River win, Powell, Star Valley and Green River tie for third, fourth and fifth (out) at 2-3. Powell wins this tiebreaker with head-to-head victories over both. Green River would have the head-to-head over Star Valley to get the fourth seed.

Class 2A East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Big Horn at Upton-Sundance; Newcastle at Wheatland; Torrington at Burns*.
Torrington: In. Seeding TBD, likely No. 1 or 2. Likely No. 1 seed with Upton-Sundance victory. Likely No. 2 seed with Big Horn victory.
Upton-Sundance: In. Likely No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Big Horn: In. Likely No. 1 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Newcastle victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Wheatland victory.
Wheatland: In. No. 3 seed with victory and Upton-Sundance victory. No. 4 seed with victory and Big Horn victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Burns, Glenrock, Newcastle, Tongue River: Out.
*-The Torrington-Burns game has been canceled due to COVID-19. It’s not certain what contingencies will be used to break any playoff seeding ties that might come of this cancellation. However, the WHSAA’s plans set out in the summer note that in cases like this, the coaches from the conference would decide on seeding. However, with no mathematical possibilities of any three-way ties, such a scenario isn’t likely needed here… but these projections come with an asterisk just in case.

Class 2A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Cokeville at Lovell; Lyman at Mountain View.
Lyman, Mountain View: In. No. 1 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss.
Cokeville, Lovell: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Big Piney, Kemmerer, Pinedale, Thermopolis: Out.

Class 1A nine-man East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Saratoga at Lusk.
Southeast: In. No. 1 seed.
Lusk: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 2 seed with loss by 11 or fewer points. Tie for No. 2-3-4 seeds (coin flip to break) with Saratoga victory by 12 or more points.
Pine Bluffs: In. No. 3 seed with Lusk victory. No. 3 seed with Saratoga victory by 11 or fewer points. Tie for No. 2-3-4 seeds (coin flip to break) with Saratoga victory by 12 or more points.
Saratoga: In. Tie for No. 2-3-4 seeds (coin flip to break) with victory by 12 or more points. No. 4 seed with victory by 11 or fewer points. No. 4 seed with loss.
Lingle, Wright: Out.
Moorcroft: Ineligible.
In the case of a Saratoga victory against Lusk, which would prompt a tie for the No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds, the scoring differential tiebreaker kicks in. Saratoga has to win by 12 or more to tie the scoring differential and force a coin flip. A Saratoga victory by 11 or fewer means Lusk wins the score differential tiebreaker, with Pine Bluffs finishing third due to its head-to-head win against Saratoga.
Note: Updated 2:54 p.m. Saturday with clarification from WHSAA regarding conference standings and ineligible teams. Games against Moorcroft this year do NOT count toward conference standings, which created some different playoff scenarios than having the games count but having Moorcroft drop from the standings with regard to playoff eligibility. Apologies for the confusion.

Class 1A nine-man West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Riverside at Shoshoni.
Rocky Mountain: In. No. 1 seed.
Shoshoni: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Riverside: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Wind River: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with Riverside victory. Out with Shoshoni victory.
Greybull: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with Shoshoni victory. Out with Riverside victory.
In the 3-4-out tiebreaker between Riverside, Wind River and Greybull, score differential would be used. Greybull finishes +11, Riverside -4 and Wind River -7. Greybull gets the third seed. Riverside then gets the fourth seed by virtue of its head-to-head victory over Wind River.

Class 1A six-man East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: None.
Kaycee: In. No. 1 seed.
Hulett: In. No. 2 seed.
Guernsey: In. No. 3 seed.
Hanna: In. No. 4 seed.
Midwest, NSI: Out.
A potential tiebreaker at 2-3 for the No. 3-4-out seeds exists between Hanna, Guernsey and NSI. However, Guernsey wins that tiebreaker with head-to-head victories against the other two. Even with a victory in Week 8, NSI loses both two-way and three-way ties for either third or fourth place with either Hanna or Guernsey due to head-to-head losses against both. There’s also potential for a tie for the No. 2-3-4 seeds with Hulett, Hanna and Guernsey, which Hulett wins due to head-to-head victories against both.
Note: These scenarios were updated at 2:02 p.m. Saturday to reflect the results of Saturday’s game.

Class 1A six-man West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Burlington at Encampment; Farson at Snake River.
Farson: In. No. 1 seed.
Meeteetse: In. No. 2 seed.
Encampment: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Farson victory. Out with loss and Snake River victory.
Snake River: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with victory and Burlington victory. No. 4 seed with Encampment victory, win or lose. Out with loss and Farson victory.
Burlington: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with victory and Farson victory. No. 4 seed with victory and Snake River victory. Out with loss.
Dubois, Ten Sleep: Out.
In the scenario where Burlington, Dubois and Snake River tie for the No. 4 seed with 2-4 records, Snake River would win the berth on score differential (Snake River +8, Burlington 0, Dubois -8).
In the scenario where Encampment, Snake River and Burlington tie for the 3-4-out positions with 3-3 records, Snake River would win the tiebreaker due to a victory against the highest-ranked non-tied team (Farson). Then Burlington takes the No. 4 seed due to the head-to-head victory against Encampment.
Note: These scenarios were updated at 4:47 p.m. Saturday to reflect the results of Saturday’s games.

–patrick