2013 Wyoming football picks, part 4: Class 3A

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The shaking of my confidence continues today with Class 3A, the fourth of a five-part picks marathon. Before you read the picks below, take a minute to read a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Douglas, Buffalo, Riverton, Lander, Torrington, Rawlins. West: Powell, Star Valley, Cody, Green River, Jackson, Worland.

THE TEAMS
Douglas
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: The East side is down a bit this year, and a solid Bearcats squad will benefit from that.

Buffalo
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I’m still trying to decide if Buffalo’s slide to a losing record last year was an aberration or the start of a trend. I’m thinking aberration.

Riverton
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: After last year’s run to the conference title, the Wolverines lost a lot to graduation. Such losses almost always precipitate a drop in the standings. Oh, and a new system to learn….

Lander
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: The Tigers still have steps to make to be considered a true conference title contender. But they’re not a bad team by any stretch.

Torrington
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the top four and bottom two are pretty clear in the East. However, that means the Trailblazers are just an upset away from the playoffs….

Rawlins
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: You’ll notice that my confidence levels for Torrington and Rawlins are exactly the same. That’s because the loser of that Torrington-Rawlins game in Week 5 will have a heck of a time escaping the basement.

Powell
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This is one of the easiest picks of the season. The two-time defending champs have a ton of talent coming back. And everyone knows it.

Star Valley
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The West will be a challenging conference this year. I’m really curious to see how the Braves respond after some success last year.

Cody
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Cody’s best chance at a state title may be a year away. That doesn’t mean they can’t be contenders right now, though.

Green River
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: I’m a bit scared to have the Wolves this low, but in a stacked conference, this is all the higher they can go in the preseason.

Jackson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Unfortunately for the Broncs (and Worland), I think the dividing line between playoff and non-playoff teams in the West this year is pretty clear.

Worland
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: I feel like everyone’s overlooking Worland. Including me.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Douglas over Green River, Cody over Buffalo, Star Valley over Riverton, Powell over Lander; semifinals, Star Valley over Douglas, Powell over Cody; championship, Powell over Star Valley.

Class 3A seems pretty straightforward this year: Everyone’s chasing Powell, and the West is stronger than the East. But is it really that simple? Is anything in life ever what it seems?

Tomorrow: Class 4A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 3: Class 2A

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The five-part pick-a-thon for Wyoming high school football continues today with Class 2A. Before you dive in, see a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Big Horn, Burns, Glenrock, Wheatland, Newcastle, Wright, Moorcroft, Tongue River. West: Mountain View, Lovell, Greybull, Lyman, Pinedale, Thermopolis, Kemmerer, Big Piney.

THE TEAMS
Big Horn
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: In talking to the coaches in the East this summer, one thing is clear: No one knows who the favorite is. Big Horn gets the nod out of respect for what it did a year ago.

Burns
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the East, Burns has the most returning. And they’ve got something to prove after a couple years of lackluster season finishes.

Glenrock
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I think Glenrock is a playoff team this year. That means they could finish anywhere from first to fourth… and anywhere in between.

Wheatland
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: It’s been hard for me to get a read on the Bulldogs. I think they’ve got the talent to win the whole thing. I think they have to prove it to both themselves and their opponents before they can be legit contenders, though.

Newcastle
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: This was the hardest pick of them all. Newcastle should be really good this year. In a jumbled, unpredictable East, though, they could finish on the outside looking in. But, obviously, I’m not confident about that…

Wright
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: Of the six teams with legit chances to make a run at the East Conference title this year, the Panthers were the one most often labeled with the “potential” tag. The task is turning potential into results.

Moorcroft
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 80 percent
My gut says: Moorcroft will be better. The problem is most everyone else in the East is, too.

Tongue River
Pick: Eighth in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: The rebuilding continues in Dayton. Rome wasn’t built in a day; neither will be the Eagles.

Mountain View
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Mountain View might be a year away from its best season. They’re still good enough to win the West this year, though.

Lovell
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: The Bulldogs lost a lot from last year’s squad, so having them this high is a bit scary to me. They earned a lot of respect from other coaches in the conference, though, even despite that.

Greybull
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: For a team that finished 3-6, this might seem high, but almost every coach in the West said Greybull has the goods to go far this year.

Lyman
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: Lyman earned more respect than this last year, but the loss of a tremendous senior class puts the Eagles here for now. I can’t tell whether they’re ready for another deep playoff run or rebuilding after losing so much.

Pinedale
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The Wranglers are still middle-of-the-road right now: good enough to demand respect, but not good enough (yet) to be feared.

Thermopolis
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: A coaching change and the loss of a decently sized senior class has me thinking the worst for the Bobcats this fall. I put them here because I think they’ve got enough talent to prove me wrong. I think.

Kemmerer
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: A Shawn Rogers-coached team should never be picked this low. And yet, here, I did it. I’m dumb.

Big Piney
Pick: Eighth in West
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Until the Punchers pick up a conference victory, I have to default to picking them here. That said, this is a program that will improve dramatically this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish outside the cellar.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Big Horn over Lyman, Burns over Greybull, Lovell over Glenrock, Mountain View over Wheatland; semifinals, Big Horn over Lovell, Mountain View over Burns; championship, Mountain View over Big Horn.

My confidence index in that championship game actually happening? Like 2 percent. This classification is by far the least predictable of any class this year. Talking to the coaches in the classification only further proved that.

Tomorrow: Class 3A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 2: Class 1A 11-man

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Our look at predictions for each classification of Wyoming high school football turns today to Class 1A 11-man. See a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Southeast, Lusk, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Pine Bluffs. West: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Shoshoni, Burlington, Wind River.

THE TEAMS
Southeast
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: Either Lusk or Southeast will win the East this year. The game between the two of them is in Yoder. Hence me picking the Cyclones.

Lusk
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: The Tigers won’t finish any lower than second. They’ll have to beat Southeast in  Yoder, though, to earn the top seed – a tough task.

Upton-Sundance
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This may be the easiest pick of the season. The Patriots are solid and deep, but they probably don’t have enough to keep up with Southeast or Lusk. Yet.

Lingle
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: The Doggers are consistently a tough team to beat. All it will take for them to move up is for one team to overlook them.

Pine Bluffs
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: I feel like the Hornets deserve respect this fall, but every time I look at the conference, they end up here. Sorry, Pine.

Cokeville
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 100 percent
My gut says: When the stampede is coming, you get the heck out of the way.

Rocky Mountain
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: Places 2-6 in the West are a mess. But I think the Grizzlies have the slightest of edges to take that second spot and host in the first round.

Riverside
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’ve got the Rebels awfully high this season, especially considering that the squad has had turnover in both the playing and coaching ranks. But I like the talent up in Basin.

Shoshoni
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 10 percent
My gut says: Shoshoni should be higher than this. Like I said, places 2-6 are a mess. I wish I could just say “tie” and move on. But I can’t, because you expect more of me than that. So I put Shoshoni here, knowing they’ll probably not finish here.

Burlington
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the West, Burlington may have lost the most from last year. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a playoff-caliber team, though.

Wind River
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I had to put someone last. The Cougars could just as easily finish second in the conference as they could sixth. It’s that kind of year in the West. Lots of fun = low predictability.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Southeast over Shoshoni, Lusk over Riverside, Rocky Mountain over Upton-Sundance, Cokeville over Lingle. Semifinals, Southeast over Rocky Mountain, Cokeville over Lusk. Championship, Southeast over Cokeville.

The big three still reign supreme in Class 1A 11-man this year, and it will be interesting to see (1) whether Southeast, Lusk or Cokeville wins the state title and (2) if any of the other eight teams in the class can even come close to knocking off one of those three.

Tomorrow: Class 2A.

–patrick

Title game picks: Break out the brooms!

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The theme this weekend in Laramie is simple: retribution.

Four of this year’s five title games involve a one-loss team playing an undefeated team — and in every one of those games, the undefeated team gave the one-loss team its only loss of the season.

Gillette’s only loss? Natrona.

Star Valley’s only loss? Powell.

Lovell’s only loss? Lyman

Snake River’s only loss? Dubois.

The only classification in which that isn’t happening is 1A 11-man, where Southeast technically comes in with a 6-3 record after losing to Newcastle and Lusk in the regular season and notching a forfeit loss to Pine Bluffs. Even so, Lusk comes in unbeaten with Southeast one of its victims on the way.

So logic will tell us that the team that won in the regular season should also win the championship. If that happens, each classification would have an undefeated state champion.

And that is something the state has never seen with the five-classification setup.

In fact, we have the chance to see something we haven’t seen since 1977 — every state champ finishing unbeaten. The last time that happened, Cheyenne Central (10-0 in Class AA), Glenrock (9-0 in Class A) and Big Piney (9-0 in Class B) all finished unbeaten on their way to titles in ’77. Since the WHSAA re-instituted playoff brackets for all classifications in 1975, the undefeated sweep has only happened in one other year — the first year, 1975, when Natrona, Douglas and Pinedale all finished 10-0 seasons with state titles.

Undefeated state championship seasons are fairly common — about 40 percent of state champions in Wyoming finish unbeaten. But it’s super-rare to see an undefeated sweep, and, again, it’s never happened with the five-class setup.

However, I think it’s worth noting that a five-class sweep is easier now than ever before. Class 4A schools and Class 1A six-man schools don’t play anyone outside their classification or outside the state, while expanded conferences in the 3A, 2A and 1A 11-man classifications mean fewer chances to lose in the nonconference season to a team in a different classification or in another state. All too often since 1990, a five-class unbeaten sweep was snuffed out in Week 1 by a tough regional nonconference foe, often by a team in a higher classification. Those games don’t happen much anymore; hence, it’s easier for the five-class undefeated sweep to happen.

Gillette, Star Valley, Lovell, Southeast and Snake River would love nothing more than to be the team that spoils the undefeated sweep and hoists the trophy by exacting some revenge for that early season loss. But do any of those five actually stand a chance of beating the team that beat them in the regular season — in four of five cases, the ONLY team that beat them?

My picks are below.

Friday
* Class 1A six-man championship, (1N) Dubois vs. (1S) Snake River, noon. Simply put, this game is Dubois’ to lose. Ever since Dubois put a stop to Snake River’s 22-game winning streak in Week 2 with a 43-36 victory, the Rams have been the top team in six-man. And it seems like in examining every common opponent result, Dubois has done just a little bit better against every team it has had in common with Snake River than the Rattlers have this season. Call it Dubois, as I think the Rams will win the first state football championship in school history, but call it uncomfortably close against a program filled with pride, poise and two state championships in tow: Dubois 54, Snake River 48.
* Class 3A championship, (2W) Star Valley vs. (1W) Powell, 3 p.m. Here’s the conversation that happened last week:
Ring, ring.
“Hello?”
“Powell?”
“Yes, this is Powell.”
“Powell, hey, it’s Green River. Just calling to give you your wake-up call. The score is now 13-3.”
“OK. Thanks, Green River.”
“No problem.”
The undefeated defending state champion Panthers had been cruising until last week, when Green River put a bit of a surprise into Powell by hanging somewhat close before falling. To be honest, every championship team needs that, and for Powell, it may be better that they got that reality check in the semifinal round rather than in the first half of the title game. My bet is that Powell comes out focused for the title game. Of course, that’s not to say that the Braves won’t put up a good fight: Powell 20, Star Valley 16.

Saturday
* Class 2A championship, (2W) Lovell vs. (1W) Lyman, 10 a.m. If the weather forecasts I’m reading are correct, by this time on Saturday, the precipitation will already be falling in Laramie. That will make this game — already set up to be a defensive showdown between two of the top three defenses in 2A — even more of a slugfest. Forget the fact that these are the top two yardage AND scoring offenses in 2A. Defense has the advantage in this one. Because of that, I think this game will come down to the final possession, and the only reason I’m picking Lyman is because the home blues will show up better against the sky (and the stuff that will probably be falling from it) than Lovell’s road whites. And that’s the last time I pick a game based on uniform color. … Lyman 12, Lovell 8.
* Class 1A 11-man championship, (2E) Southeast vs. (1E) Lusk, 1 p.m. Everything these two teams do is predicated by defense. The formula for both teams is simple: stop the run first, defend the pass as necessary, force punts and turnovers. Both teams execute these plans really well. Remember Lusk 7, Southeast 6, earlier this year? I think it’ll be close again. I think one of these two teams will score late in the fourth quarter. I think someone’s going to go for the win rather than the tie. And I think that decision will effectively boil down the state championship to one three-yard play. Lusk 14, Southeast 13.
* Class 4A championship, (2) Gillette vs. (1) Natrona, 4 p.m. Yeah, yeah, I know. Gillette has Sheridan, Natrona has Kelly Walsh. But when two programs sustain excellence for as long as these two programs, a rivalry is natural. And this may be Class 4A’s best rivalry. Since 1993, Natrona has had just one losing season; since 1997, Gillette has had losing seasons just twice. For five consecutive years from 1999-2003, the Mustangs and Camels played against each other in the playoffs, including the title games in ’99 and ’03; they’ve also played each other in the postseason in 2007 and 2010. Points may be easier to come by than they were in the regular-season finale — after all, these are the top two offenses in 4A — but I think the Mustangs’ stout defense keeps Gillette’s offense in check just enough for NC to polish off an undefeated season. Natrona 28, Gillette 20.

For the second straight week, I’m making predictions that would buck a historically significant trend. And for the second straight week, I would not be surprised to see any one of the teams I’ve picked against make sure that history does, indeed, repeat itself. The margins I’ve outlined for each game should make it clear that I think every single game will come down to the last possession.

Quite simply, this may be the best set of five title games since the event moved to Laramie four years ago. Every single game should be a good one.

Kind of makes me sad I don’t live in Wyoming anymore. Kind of…

Last week: 8-2 (80 percent). This season: 252-44 (85 percent).

–patrick

Semifinal playoff picks: Still hung up on home-field advantage

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Last week, I wrote about the struggles road teams have had in the first round of the playoffs.

You won’t find such comments here this week. Instead, what I’ve found is that road success in the semifinals is more common — and in many ways more consistent — than road success in the first round.

In fact, the statewide semifinal consistency is almost scary.

Every year since 2003, in the 10 semifinal games per year, road teams have won either two or three games every single postseason.

The last time that the number of road teams winning in the semifinal round was neither two nor three was 2002, when only one road team won in the semifinals. (I just happened to be at that game in 2002, a cold day in Casper when Gillette beat Kelly Walsh 14-7. I remember nothing except the final score, sitting with my friends and having numb feet.)

The last time more than three road teams won in the semis was 2001, when four won. Six road teams won in 1999, the last year the majority of semifinal victors were road teams.

And while home teams have usually had the upper hand, they’ve never had the 10-game semifinal sweep.

Since moving to the five-class system in 1990, the state has never had a semifinal playoff round in which every home team has won. In fact, the last year in which every semifinal home team won was 1984; that year, Class 4A and 3A schools didn’t have semifinals (those classes only a championship game) and 2A and 1A playoff brackets only had four teams apiece. So it’s really not saying much that the home teams won four games that year….

Which brings me to my picks, and a pattern I noticed only after my choices were made: Despite everything I’ve written above, I’m calling for the home-team sweep in 2012.

Even though you may call me boring for choosing all the home teams, considering the history in Wyoming, I think it’s downright brave to pick every home team to win this week.

I feel like I’ve already given it away, but here are my picks. The home teams are the one in bold because they’re the ones I’m picking to win:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Natrona: R-E-V-E-N-G-E. Find out what it means to NC. Last year’s semifinal loss to East is all the motivation the Mustangs need this year.
Sheridan at Gillette: Speaking of revenge, last year’s “other” semifinal was just as rough on the Camels. They’ll be looking for a little payback, too.
Class 3A
Green River at Powell: Detecting a trend here? Last year, Green River was the favorite at home and Powell eked out the victory in the final moments. I’m sure the Panthers remember that and don’t want it to happen TO them this year.
Cody at Star Valley: 39-0. That’s how bad Star Valley beat Cody the first time around this year. And although Cody’s first-round upset of Riverton is praiseworthy, and although I think it’ll be closer than 39-0, the Braves still get the nod. First playoff meeting since the 1991 3A title game, Cody’s last championship year.
Class 2A
Lovell at Big Horn: Nope. Don’t want to pick this one. Game of the year potential right here. Flipped a coin… landed heads for home team. First meeting ever between these two programs.
Newcastle at Lyman: Last week, a Bridger Valley program made the trip to Newcastle. Didn’t go so well. This week, Newcastle makes the trip to the Bridger Valley. Closer, but the edge is still to the home team. This semi is also the first meeting ever between these two programs.
Class 1A 11-man
Southeast at Cokeville: The Cyclones have been solid all season, but I can’t go against an undefeated defending state champion at home in the playoffs. That, and Cokeville has ended Southeast’s season the past two years in a row.
Burlington at Lusk: This may be your game of the week right here if Lovell-Big Horn somehow doesn’t pan out. Burlington has been one of the scarier teams out of the West and has what it takes to give Lusk fits. Second meeting ever between these schools; Lusk won the first in the ’10 quarterfinals.
Class 1A six-man
Midwest at Dubois: Since moving to six-man last year, Dubois is 3-0 against Midwest, including a semifinal playoff victory at home last year.
Meeteetse at Snake River: The Longhorns’ turnaround this season has been fun to watch. And even though Snake won the first game between these two this year (56-44), Meeteetse could pull the upset if enough little things go their way. First playoff meeting.

Last week: 19-1 (95 percent). This season: 244-42 (85 percent).

Thoughts? You should post them below. Because by now, less than a third of the teams that started the season are left, and chances are your team is out, which means you’re more likely to be objective…. Or your team’s still in it and you’re more subjective than ever. Whatever. It’s fun either way!

–patrick

Quarterfinal playoff picks: Loooooong bus rides and slim chances

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First round playoffs, by the numbers:

5: Number of first-round bus trips longer than 385 miles. Turns out there is one such trip in each classification (Evanston at Gillette, Buffalo at Star Valley, Mountain View at Newcastle, Lingle at Cokeville, Hulett at Snake River).

2: Number of first-round bus trips shorter than 100 miles (Central at East, Kaycee at Midwest).

5: Number of first-round games that are rematches of quarterfinal games from last year (Buffalo at Star Valley, Lander at Powell, Shoshoni at Southeast, Lingle at Cokeville, Hulett at Snake River). Four of those five games are being played at the same location as last year’s quarterfinal game — only the Lander-Powell game is in a different place than last year.

3: Number of games pitting two programs that have never played each other before this week (Kemmerer/Big Horn, Wheatland/Lyman, Upton-Sundance/Burlington (see explanation below)).

9: Number of first-round games that are regular-season rematches. Every single team that won the regular-season game is hosting the rematch this week.

2: Number of road teams that won in the first round last year. Both were 3A teams (Buffalo, Powell).

9: Number of first-round road victories since 2008. Road teams are 9-71 since ’08 in the first round.

1: Number of road teams I am picking to win in the first round this year.

Some picks below, with a little justification to boot. Projected winners in bold:

Friday
Class 4A
Rock Springs at Natrona: Natrona won the regular-season game fairly easily. Expect the undefeated Mustangs to keep rolling. First playoff meeting since 1999.
Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne East: I do like it when intra-city rivals meet in the playoffs; gives them a nice little twist and, as cliche as it sounds, anything can happen. First playoff meeting since playing in the 5A title game in 2005.
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan: KW’s resurgence this year has been a boon for Trojan fans, but the trip to Sheridan is a tough one in the postseason; KW has lost quarterfinal games at Homer Scott Field two of the past three seasons (and if this pick holds up, three of the past four), although those two losses were by a combined nine points.
Evanston at Gillette: Looooong bus ride (450 miles). Angry Camel team coming off its first loss. Not a good mix. First playoff meeting since 2000.
Class 3A
Cody at Riverton: The Wolverines won the regular-season matchup back in September, and although both teams are better now than they were then, Riverton is still the prohibitive favorite. First playoff meeting since 2004, when both teams were in 5A.
Buffalo at Star Valley: Another looooooong bus ride (430 miles through the park). And the Braves’ defense has been among the stingiest in the state this year. They played this game last year, too, third-seeded Buffalo traveling to second-seeded Star Valley, and even though the Bison won that game last year, it was definitely played under some different circumstances. 
Green River at Douglas: This might be the best game of the week — especially if it’s anything like the regular-season game, one the Bearcats won 20-14. Law of averages (well, that and a coin flip) has me going with the Wolves. First playoff meeting.
Lander at Powell: Powell’s got its eyes on more than just making the playoffs. Remember, the Panthers’ title run last year started with a win over the Tigers….
Class 2A
Kemmerer at Big Horn: The Rams proved last week that they have the goods to go all the way. First meeting ever between these two programs.
Glenrock at Lovell: How different would this season have been if Glenrock had beaten Big Horn back in Week 4, and not fallen 30-26? First playoff meeting since 2009.
Mountain View at Newcastle: Looooong bus ride (460 miles). But… this game might be closer than you think if Newcastle suffers from any sort of post-Big Horn frustration. First playoff meeting since 1999.
Wheatland at Lyman: The Eagles have not-so-quietly been one of the most efficient and consistent teams in the state this fall. First meeting between these two programs. 
Class 1A 11-man
Rocky Mountain at Lusk: The Tigers had some tense moments last week but are still the team to beat from the East. Expect a game from the Griz, though. First meeting since 1997 1A-D1 title game.
Upton-Sundance at Burlington: The Patriots have been a feel-good story all season long, but the Huskies have been scary consistent. First official meeting; Burlington last (and only) played Upton in 1997 and has never played Sundance.
Shoshoni at Southeast: I have legit reasons to pick both teams in this one. Last year’s quarterfinal game, though — won 60-0 by Southeast in Yoder — has me leaning toward the Cyclones, though. Returning to a site of a beating like that only feels good if you’re there to avenge it.
Lingle at Cokeville: Loooooong bus ride (443 miles). Lingle had to make this exact same trip in last year’s playoff quarterfinals. Didn’t go so well. 
Class 1A six-man
Hulett at Snake River: Not a loooooong bus ride, just long (390 miles). And then when you get off the bus, you have to play the Rattlers. Rematch of last year’s quarterfinal, a game LSR won handily.
Guernsey at Meeteetse: This might be your game of the week right here, not only in six-man but in any class. They played just a couple weeks ago and the Longhorns barely eked out a 36-30 victory in Guernsey. First playoff meeting.
Kaycee at Midwest: Repeat of last week’s season finale — same two teams, same place. The only difference is the last game was an afternoon game and this one’s a night game. These two teams are meeting in the playoffs for the third time in four years (missed each other last year).
Hanna at Dubois: Since ending Snake River’s winning streak back in September, the Rams have been the team to beat in six-man. No one’s even been close. First playoff meeting.

Last week: 24-6 (80 percent). This season: 225-41 (85 percent).

Your thoughts? The first round of the playoffs tends to be a pretty predictable week, but every year a couple teams turn yawners into thrillers. Any surprise teams in the postseason brackets this year — teams under the radar that shouldn’t be? Feel free to post some thoughts below as we start talking about the final stretch of the 2012 season.

–patrick

Week 8 picks: Hosting in the first round of the playoffs, and what it means to Meeteetse, Cokeville and Pine Bluffs

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Only one playoff seeding question (or triangular playoff possibility) will not be answered by the time games are done Friday night.

The lone exception to that comes in the Class 1A six-man North Conference — and the seeding means everything to the Meeteetse Longhorns.

With a victory over Hulett on Saturday, the Longhorns would secure a first-round home playoff game, a feat the program has not accomplished since 2001.

Even with a loss, the Longhorns tie Hulett and Kaycee for the second, third and fourth seeds from the 1A six-man North Conference and have a one-in-three shot of hosting in the first round anyway.

If the Longhorns get the chance to host in the first round, they’ll break one of the longest such droughts in the state; only seven schools have longer first-round home playoff game droughts than Meeteetse does, and none of those seven schools has a chance this year to break their streak like Meeteetse does on Saturday.

Of the 24 teams still in the running for the 20 first-round host slots, 19 hosted in the first round either last year or in 2010; the five exceptions, in addition Meeteetse, are Riverton, Burlington, Hulett and Upton-Sundance.

Riverton, which has already secured the top seed from the 3A East, will host its first  playoff game since 2004; Burlington, win or lose this week against Cokeville, will host its first playoff game since 2008.

Hulett, Meeteetse’s opponent on Saturday, is trying to backdoor its way into a home playoff game, which would be the school’s first since 2008. And Upton-Sundance, which, technically has never hosted a playoff game as a combined program, is trying to put a home playoff game into the communities for the first time in several years; Upton last hosted in 2006 and Sundance in 2005.

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On the other side, some schools have made hosting in the first round an annual tradition — especially in Class 4A.

For the second consecutive year, the same four schools (Natrona, Gillette, Sheridan and Cheyenne East) will host first-round playoff games. Gillette is hosting in the first round for the sixth consecutive year, while Sheridan will open the postseason at home for the fifth year straight and Natrona for the third year in a row.

Douglas has all those 4A schools topped, as the Bearcats, by virtue of their second-place finish in the 3A East, will host in the opening round for the seventh year in a row.

But none of those schools has a stranglehold on first-round home games like Southeast and Cokeville do.

Although Southeast’s hosting responsibilities are not cemented entering this week — the Cyclones have to beat Upton-Sundance Lingle and hope Upton-Sundance loses to Lusk on Friday to wrap up the 1A 11-man East’s No. 2 seed — the Cyclones, with a win and help, will open up the playoffs at home for the 16th consecutive year.

Cokeville, meanwhile, has already locked up one of the top two seeds in the 1A 11-man West and will host a first-round playoff game for the 20th consecutive year. The last time the Panthers missed out on the first-round hosting duties was 1992, when they failed to qualify for the postseason at all.

In addition, Lovell, Lusk and Dubois have also secured first-round hosting rights for the third consecutive year.

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However, the seven schools with playoff hosting droughts longer than Meeteetse will all see their streaks extended at least one more year.

Rawlins and Laramie both haven’t hosted a playoff game since 2000, while Torrington hasn’t been at home for a postseason game since 1996. Three schools — Cheyenne South, Farson and Wyoming Indian — have never hosted a playoff game.

The seventh school on that list has the most surprising streak. Despite an overall program winning percentage above .500, 12 all-time playoff qualifications, six postseason victories and three title-game appearances, Pine Bluffs hasn’t played a playoff game at home since 1948.

That’s 64 years, if you’re counting.

The 1948 season for Pine Bluffs was a special one: The Hornets won the Southeast six-man crown and beat Jackson in the state semifinals before hosting Byron for the state title. Byron won that game 44-0 in far eastern Laramie County; Pine Bluffs hasn’t hosted a playoff game since then.

Pine won’t host in the playoffs this year, either. The Hornets have to hope for Lingle to beat Southeast to qualify for the Class 1A 11-man playoffs, and even if they get in, they’ll be the No. 4 seed out of the East Conference, which means no home games no matter what.

Sorry, Hornet faithful. We can hope Year 65 will be the lucky one.

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Here are this week’s picks, with the teams I think will win in bold and the teams I think will make every attempt possible to prove me wrong in the regular type:

Thursday
Class 1A 11-man
Shoshoni at Wyoming Indian
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Kelly Walsh
Cheyenne East at Sheridan
Cheyenne South at Rock Springs
Evanston at Laramie
Gillette at Natrona
Class 3A
Cody at Worland
Green River at Powell
Lander at Riverton
Rawlins at Buffalo
Star Valley at Jackson
Torrington at Douglas
Class 2A
Big Piney at Lovell
Glenrock at Moorcroft
Kemmerer at Mountain View
Lyman at Greybull
Newcastle at Big Horn
Pinedale at Thermopolis
Tongue River at Wheatland
Wright at Burns
Class 1A 11-man
Cokeville at Burlington
Lusk at Upton-Sundance (at Upton)
Rocky Mountain at Saratoga
Southeast at Lingle
Wind River at Riverside
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey at Dubois
Snake River at Farson
Ten Sleep at Hanna
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Hulett at Meeteetse
Kaycee at Midwest
Open: Normative Services, Pine Bluffs.

Last week: 28-3 (90 percent). This season: 201-35 (85 percent).

There they are, the final picks of the regular season. How do you see the playoffs shaping up, based on what might happen this week? Anything jump out to you as intriguing or interesting on the Week 8 schedule? Feel free to post your thoughts below.

(And how did I get to this point and NOT mention that two games in Week 8 pit undefeated teams against each other: Gillette-Natrona in 4A and Big Horn-Newcastle in 2A? The Ram-Dogie game starts at 1 p.m. in Big Horn; the Mustang-Camel showdown starts at 7 p.m. in Casper. If I still lived in Wyoming, I’d just call in sick to work and go to both.)

–patrick

Week 7 picks: Green River’s lucky number is…

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Week 7 in your program, Week 2 for the game of the week graphic…. click for a larger version, if you wish.

This week’s picks. Projected winners in bold; hopefully your computer can read bold type.

Thursday
Class 2A
Pinedale at Lyman
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Evanston
Cheyenne South at Gillette
Natrona at Laramie
Rock Springs at Cheyenne Central
Sheridan at Kelly Walsh
Class 3A
Buffalo at Torrington
Powell at Cody
Rawlins at Lander
Riverton at Douglas
Star Valley at Green River
Worland at Jackson
Class 2A
Big Horn at Tongue River
Burns at Glenrock
Greybull at Big Piney
Lovell at Kemmerer
Moorcroft at Wright
Thermopolis at Mountain View
Wheatland at Newcastle
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Rocky Mountain
Cokeville at Wind River
Lingle at Pine Bluffs
Lusk at Normative Services
Riverside at Wyoming Indian
Saratoga at Shoshoni
Upton-Sundance at Southeast
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Hanna
Midwest at Snake River
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Hulett
Meeteetse at Guernsey
Ten Sleep at Kaycee

Last week: 28-4 (88 percent). This season: 173-32 (84 percent).

So where did I go wrong? What game are you excited by this week? What game are you going to watch? Post some thoughts below.

–patrick

Week 6 picks: 27 years in the making

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(Click for a little bit larger version.) Thinking about doing this every week. What would you think of something like this as an addition to the blog?

Of course, I picked Midwest for the inaugural version of this infographic… 🙂

By the way, the closest Midwest has come to breaking that 27-year streak and beating Guernsey in Midwest came in 1999, when the Vikings beat the Oilers 7-6 on a cold and wet night in the oilfield. This one still bothers me… I was a senior this year for Midwest and felt we had a pretty good team. I was the holder for our extra points and field goals and after we scored our lone touchdown of this game, I took my knee to receive the snap. But the ball was wet and never made it more than an inch above the ground; I shouted “Fire!” (although at the time, it probably sounded like a muffled “Faaaaaa!”), grabbed the ball and started rolling right. I threw the only pass I ever threw in four years of high school football and, well… Quack, quack. Hence the final score. Honestly, it’s the only play I remember from that game. Another reminder that 48 minutes of toil can often come down to one play — and in this case, the prolonging of a streak that’s now reached 27 years.

On to the picks. Projected winners in bold. A huge week this week — not as many easy picks as there have been the past couple weeks.

Thursday
Interclass
Natrona JV at Lusk
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Gillette
Evanston at Natrona
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne South
Laramie at Sheridan
Rock Springs at Cheyenne East
Class 3A
Cody at Star Valley
Douglas at Rawlins
Jackson at Green River
Lander at Buffalo
Powell at Worland
Riverton at Torrington
Class 2A
Big Horn at Moorcroft
Big Piney at Pinedale
Burns at Wheatland
Kemmerer at Greybull
Lovell at Thermopolis
Mountain View at Lyman
Newcastle at Tongue River
Wright at Glenrock
Class 1A 11-man
Lingle at Normative Services
Riverside at Saratoga
Rocky Mountain at Shoshoni
Upton-Sundance at Pine Bluffs
Wind River at Burlington
Wyoming Indian at Cokeville
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey at Midwest
Hanna at Dubois
Hulett at Farson
Snake River at Kaycee
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Meeteetse at Ten Sleep
Interclass
Natrona sophs at Southeast

Last week: 28-3 (90 percent). This season: 145-28 (84 percent).

So what say you? Any games that you can’t wait to see this week? Any upsets in the making? Any thoughts at all? Any ideas where I went wrong with my picks? Post ’em.

–patrick

Week 5 picks: Rawlins doesn’t deserve this

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Let me get this out of the way right now: I feel like a jerk for writing this post.

In general, I try to use this blog to highlight the good things happening in Wyoming high school sports — and, although all that surrounds high school sports is not all roses and unicorns, I try to bring attention to the negative only when I feel like it’s deserved.

That’s why I feel like a jerk, because Rawlins doesn’t deserve this.

Rawlins doesn’t deserve what’s happened to its football program. Specifically, the Outlaws don’t deserve to break the state record for consecutive losses, which they will do if they lose to Torrington at home on Friday. Generally, the program doesn’t deserve what has happened the past 12 years, or, really, the past 25-plus years.

Since winning the Class 3A championship in 2000, the Outlaws are 8-88. Spelled out, it looks more dramatic: eight victories, eighty-eight losses.

Only once since 2001 have the Outlaws won more than one game in a season; that came in 2008, when Rawlins went 2-7. The 2008 season also had one of Rawlins’ two playoff qualifications in this span, as the 2003 team, at 1-7 in the regular season, barely qualified for the playoffs and earned the right to be crushed in the first round of the postseason.

But the struggles on the Rawlins gridiron date to well before 2000. In fact, in the 13 years leading up to the title run in 2000, the Outlaws had just one winning season — and that came in 1999, the year prior to the Outlaws’ undefeated championship run. From 1987-2000, even including the 9-0 title season, the Outlaws were just 29-85.

What’s weird, though, is that Rawlins’ drop-off, minus the flare-up of the 2000 championship class, was incredibly quick and incredibly thorough, and it stunned a program that had been fairly successful prior to 1987. In fact, the Outlaws were the Class AA (big school) runners-up in 1986 and in 1982, as well, losing to Sheridan in the title game both times, both at home. The Outlaws also lost the 1974 Class AA title game at home to Cheyenne East.

Heading into the 1987 season opener, the Outlaws’ all-time record was 241 victories, 272 losses and 25 ties, a winning percentage of .471.

Heading into Friday’s game with Torrington, the Outlaws’ all-time record is 278 victories, 445 losses and 25 ties, a winning percentage of .388.

In case you’re counting (and I always am), over the past 25 and a half seasons, Rawlins has had 37 victories and 173 losses, a winning percentage of .176.

That includes 35 losses in a row, heading into Friday, tied for the state record and on the brink of breaking it.

And I feel like a jerk for pointing it out, because no one should have to go through that, or go through the scrutiny that comes with setting a “negative” state record.

So, to the Rawlins Outlaws, their coaches, their fans and their supporters: Sorry you have to go through this, and I apologize for piling on.

Like all streaks, this one, too, shall pass. And the unforgiving nature of the scoreboard demands that only one solution exists.

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Here are the rest of my picks for the week. Projected winners are in bold. But, of course, I don’t mind being proven wrong.

Thursday
Interclass
Natrona JV at Lingle
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Natrona
Evanston at Cheyenne South
Gillette at Sheridan
Kelly Walsh at Rock Springs
Laramie at Cheyenne Central
Class 3A
Buffalo at Riverton
Douglas at Lander
Green River at Worland
Jackson at Cody
Star Valley at Powell
Torrington at Rawlins
Class 2A
Big Piney at Kemmerer
Glenrock at Newcastle
Greybull at Lovell
Lyman at Thermopolis
Moorcroft at Burns
Pinedale at Mountain View
Tongue River at Wright
Wheatland at Big Horn
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Wyoming Indian
Normative Services at Southeast
Pine Bluffs at Lusk
Rocky Mountain at Cokeville
Saratoga at Wind River
Shoshoni at Riverside
Class 1A six-man
Midwest at Hulett
Interstate
Hill City, S.D., at Upton-Sundance (at Sundance)
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Guernsey
Hanna at Snake River
Kaycee at Meeteetse
Ten Sleep at Dubois

Last week: 27-4 (87 percent) (doesn’t include the Upton-Sundance/Natrona JV game, which wasn’t on my schedule and no one in official capacity bothered to let me know the game was being played until after it was done, so I couldn’t include it). This season: 117-25 (82 percent).

What do you think about this week’s schedule? Any games you’re excited to see? Any upsets in the making? Post your thoughts below and we can chat about it.

–patrick