2013 Wyoming football picks, part 4: Class 3A

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The shaking of my confidence continues today with Class 3A, the fourth of a five-part picks marathon. Before you read the picks below, take a minute to read a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Douglas, Buffalo, Riverton, Lander, Torrington, Rawlins. West: Powell, Star Valley, Cody, Green River, Jackson, Worland.

THE TEAMS
Douglas
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: The East side is down a bit this year, and a solid Bearcats squad will benefit from that.

Buffalo
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I’m still trying to decide if Buffalo’s slide to a losing record last year was an aberration or the start of a trend. I’m thinking aberration.

Riverton
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: After last year’s run to the conference title, the Wolverines lost a lot to graduation. Such losses almost always precipitate a drop in the standings. Oh, and a new system to learn….

Lander
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: The Tigers still have steps to make to be considered a true conference title contender. But they’re not a bad team by any stretch.

Torrington
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the top four and bottom two are pretty clear in the East. However, that means the Trailblazers are just an upset away from the playoffs….

Rawlins
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: You’ll notice that my confidence levels for Torrington and Rawlins are exactly the same. That’s because the loser of that Torrington-Rawlins game in Week 5 will have a heck of a time escaping the basement.

Powell
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This is one of the easiest picks of the season. The two-time defending champs have a ton of talent coming back. And everyone knows it.

Star Valley
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The West will be a challenging conference this year. I’m really curious to see how the Braves respond after some success last year.

Cody
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Cody’s best chance at a state title may be a year away. That doesn’t mean they can’t be contenders right now, though.

Green River
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: I’m a bit scared to have the Wolves this low, but in a stacked conference, this is all the higher they can go in the preseason.

Jackson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Unfortunately for the Broncs (and Worland), I think the dividing line between playoff and non-playoff teams in the West this year is pretty clear.

Worland
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: I feel like everyone’s overlooking Worland. Including me.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Douglas over Green River, Cody over Buffalo, Star Valley over Riverton, Powell over Lander; semifinals, Star Valley over Douglas, Powell over Cody; championship, Powell over Star Valley.

Class 3A seems pretty straightforward this year: Everyone’s chasing Powell, and the West is stronger than the East. But is it really that simple? Is anything in life ever what it seems?

Tomorrow: Class 4A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 3: Class 2A

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The five-part pick-a-thon for Wyoming high school football continues today with Class 2A. Before you dive in, see a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Big Horn, Burns, Glenrock, Wheatland, Newcastle, Wright, Moorcroft, Tongue River. West: Mountain View, Lovell, Greybull, Lyman, Pinedale, Thermopolis, Kemmerer, Big Piney.

THE TEAMS
Big Horn
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: In talking to the coaches in the East this summer, one thing is clear: No one knows who the favorite is. Big Horn gets the nod out of respect for what it did a year ago.

Burns
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the East, Burns has the most returning. And they’ve got something to prove after a couple years of lackluster season finishes.

Glenrock
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I think Glenrock is a playoff team this year. That means they could finish anywhere from first to fourth… and anywhere in between.

Wheatland
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: It’s been hard for me to get a read on the Bulldogs. I think they’ve got the talent to win the whole thing. I think they have to prove it to both themselves and their opponents before they can be legit contenders, though.

Newcastle
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: This was the hardest pick of them all. Newcastle should be really good this year. In a jumbled, unpredictable East, though, they could finish on the outside looking in. But, obviously, I’m not confident about that…

Wright
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: Of the six teams with legit chances to make a run at the East Conference title this year, the Panthers were the one most often labeled with the “potential” tag. The task is turning potential into results.

Moorcroft
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 80 percent
My gut says: Moorcroft will be better. The problem is most everyone else in the East is, too.

Tongue River
Pick: Eighth in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: The rebuilding continues in Dayton. Rome wasn’t built in a day; neither will be the Eagles.

Mountain View
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Mountain View might be a year away from its best season. They’re still good enough to win the West this year, though.

Lovell
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: The Bulldogs lost a lot from last year’s squad, so having them this high is a bit scary to me. They earned a lot of respect from other coaches in the conference, though, even despite that.

Greybull
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: For a team that finished 3-6, this might seem high, but almost every coach in the West said Greybull has the goods to go far this year.

Lyman
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: Lyman earned more respect than this last year, but the loss of a tremendous senior class puts the Eagles here for now. I can’t tell whether they’re ready for another deep playoff run or rebuilding after losing so much.

Pinedale
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The Wranglers are still middle-of-the-road right now: good enough to demand respect, but not good enough (yet) to be feared.

Thermopolis
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: A coaching change and the loss of a decently sized senior class has me thinking the worst for the Bobcats this fall. I put them here because I think they’ve got enough talent to prove me wrong. I think.

Kemmerer
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: A Shawn Rogers-coached team should never be picked this low. And yet, here, I did it. I’m dumb.

Big Piney
Pick: Eighth in West
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Until the Punchers pick up a conference victory, I have to default to picking them here. That said, this is a program that will improve dramatically this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish outside the cellar.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Big Horn over Lyman, Burns over Greybull, Lovell over Glenrock, Mountain View over Wheatland; semifinals, Big Horn over Lovell, Mountain View over Burns; championship, Mountain View over Big Horn.

My confidence index in that championship game actually happening? Like 2 percent. This classification is by far the least predictable of any class this year. Talking to the coaches in the classification only further proved that.

Tomorrow: Class 3A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 2: Class 1A 11-man

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Our look at predictions for each classification of Wyoming high school football turns today to Class 1A 11-man. See a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Southeast, Lusk, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Pine Bluffs. West: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Shoshoni, Burlington, Wind River.

THE TEAMS
Southeast
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: Either Lusk or Southeast will win the East this year. The game between the two of them is in Yoder. Hence me picking the Cyclones.

Lusk
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: The Tigers won’t finish any lower than second. They’ll have to beat Southeast in  Yoder, though, to earn the top seed – a tough task.

Upton-Sundance
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This may be the easiest pick of the season. The Patriots are solid and deep, but they probably don’t have enough to keep up with Southeast or Lusk. Yet.

Lingle
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: The Doggers are consistently a tough team to beat. All it will take for them to move up is for one team to overlook them.

Pine Bluffs
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: I feel like the Hornets deserve respect this fall, but every time I look at the conference, they end up here. Sorry, Pine.

Cokeville
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 100 percent
My gut says: When the stampede is coming, you get the heck out of the way.

Rocky Mountain
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: Places 2-6 in the West are a mess. But I think the Grizzlies have the slightest of edges to take that second spot and host in the first round.

Riverside
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’ve got the Rebels awfully high this season, especially considering that the squad has had turnover in both the playing and coaching ranks. But I like the talent up in Basin.

Shoshoni
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 10 percent
My gut says: Shoshoni should be higher than this. Like I said, places 2-6 are a mess. I wish I could just say “tie” and move on. But I can’t, because you expect more of me than that. So I put Shoshoni here, knowing they’ll probably not finish here.

Burlington
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the West, Burlington may have lost the most from last year. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a playoff-caliber team, though.

Wind River
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I had to put someone last. The Cougars could just as easily finish second in the conference as they could sixth. It’s that kind of year in the West. Lots of fun = low predictability.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Southeast over Shoshoni, Lusk over Riverside, Rocky Mountain over Upton-Sundance, Cokeville over Lingle. Semifinals, Southeast over Rocky Mountain, Cokeville over Lusk. Championship, Southeast over Cokeville.

The big three still reign supreme in Class 1A 11-man this year, and it will be interesting to see (1) whether Southeast, Lusk or Cokeville wins the state title and (2) if any of the other eight teams in the class can even come close to knocking off one of those three.

Tomorrow: Class 2A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 1: Class 1A six-man

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In preparation for the second annual Wyoming Sports Preview Guide magazine, I’ve spent the last two months talking to football coaches across the state. So far, I’ve talked to 62 of the 64 coaches (NSI doesn’t have a coach yet, and for one school I talked to an assistant coach rather than the head coach).

A standard question I asked every coach was to pick the favorite in their conference. In asking that question, something became clear — sometimes, the coaches are just as uncertain about who should be the favorites as the guys asking the question.

Just like in previous years, I’m posting my predictions for the standings for each classification and conference. But new this year is the “Confidence Index,” a number that demonstrates my faith that I’ve picked that team’s placing correctly. The “Confidence Index” has no basis in math; it’s more an instinctual feeling than anything.

As we progress, you’ll notice some classifications and conferences have a higher overall confidence than others. That’s not a mistake. Some classes are easier to pick than others — both for me and for the coaches.

The picks will start today with the classification with the smallest schools, Class 1A six-man:

THE PICKS
East: Midwest, Guernsey, Saratoga, Hulett, Kaycee, Hanna, NSI. West: Dubois, Meeteetse, Snake River, Wyoming Indian, Farson, St. Stephens, Ten Sleep.

THE TEAMS
Midwest
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: Almost every coach in six-man says this is the Oilers’ year to break through. I agree.

Guernsey
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Guernsey will challenge the best teams in six-man this year. To finish this high, though, they’ll have to win a bevy of tough games.

Saratoga
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The transition from 11-man to six-man will be good for the Panthers, and I’m all but certain they’ll make the playoffs. But the steep learning curve may keep them from hosting in the first round.

Hulett
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Hulett is a genuine middle-of-the-pack team. The game against Kaycee in Week 4 may be for a playoff spot.

Kaycee
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: I think I have Kaycee too low. But I also think the four teams I have ahead of them are better teams – this year. One upset will be all Kaycee needs to make the postseason.

Hanna
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Hanna won’t be an easy team to beat. However, a coaching change plus a lack of depth probably means this won’t be the Miners’ year to make a deep playoff run.

NSI
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’m so scared to put the Wolves here. Six-man could be the program’s niche. As it stands, though, the lack of certainty about the program’s makeup from year to year forces me to have them here.

Dubois
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: Just like Midwest in the East, Dubois in the West was basically a unanimous No. 1 choice from the coaches. I trust them.

Meeteetse
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: The Longhorns are poised to be one of six-man’s toughest teams to beat this fall. Even so, I’m not sure if it’s enough to oust Dubois as the favorite.

Snake River
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I put the Rattlers here out of respect for the program and the tradition it has. What scares me is that the team lost basically all the experience it had to graduation, and the players coming back are untested.

Wyoming Indian
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: I think the Chiefs could finish even higher than this, but I hesitate to put them any higher because of (1) history and (2) the six-man learning curve. The Week 6 showdown vs. Snake looms huge.

Farson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the Pronghorns are steadily improving, and they have what it takes to notch a couple victories this year. But that’s it.

St. Stephens
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence: 65 percent
Why?: The Eagles are young and inexperienced. They’ll struggle in their first year of varsity play. But they’ve got enough going right to pull a surprise or two.

Ten Sleep
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence: 50 percent
My gut says: The Pioneers only anticipate having seven players. They’re two injuries away from not even having a team. That won’t make them pushovers, though.

THE PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Midwest over Wyoming Indian, Guernsey over Snake River, Meeteetse over Saratoga, Dubois over Hulett; semifinals, Midwest over Meeteetse, Dubois over Guernsey; championship, Dubois over Midwest.

Six-man football has generally been upset-free in its short history, but the classification has more teams — and now more parity — than in previous years. That could make for a fun, unpredictable season.

Tomorrow: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick

Shoshoni hires Truempler as head coach

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Shoshoni didn’t need to look far for its new head football coach — it just turned to the wrestling program.

Tony Truempler, the Wranglers’ head wrestling coach, will take over as the head football coach as well this year, Shoshoni AD Max Mills said via email to wyoming-football.com.

Truempler, who grew up in Dubois, takes over for Rick Linblad, who resigned after two seasons leading the Wranglers. Linblad went 11-7 in his two years with the team.

For a full list of coaching changes in the state this year, click here.

–patrick

Wyoming’s football reclassification look for 2014-15 — a preview

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The 2013 football season is little more than a one-year stopover for reclassification.

A new cutoff for six-man football and a revised Class 2A will be established in 2014, and several schools will feel the effects of the new alignments.

This we know: With Rock River joining varsity play in 2014, and the Upton-Sundance co-op in agreement through 2015, the reclass cycle will be based on 64 participating schools. But where will each school end up?

That depends on each school’s enrollment. The ADMs (Average Daily Membership numbers) used by the WHSAA to reclassify schools will not be released until mid-August, but using enrollment figures posted on the Wyoming Department of Education’s website, we can estimate who might be moving where.

(Of course, WDE enrollment numbers and ADMs are different. This is by no means official — consider these educated guesses.)

4A/3A and 3A/2A: No anticipated changes.

2A/1A 11-man: Two teams will drop due to the new cutline of 14 Class 2A schools, down from 16. Right now, I anticipate those two schools will be Tongue River and Moorcroft.

1A 11-man/1A six-man: With the new cutline of 14, some six-man schools may have to be moved up. I anticipate those current six-man schools above the cutline for six-man will be Wyoming Indian and Saratoga; I anticipate that all other current six-man schools will fall below the cutline. I also foresee one school falling below the six-man cutline opting up to play 11-man — Cokeville.

++++

As for conferences:

4A and 3A will look the same.

New 2A: West: Big Piney, Kemmerer, Lyman, Mountain View, Pinedale, Greybull, Lovell. East: Big Horn, Newcastle, Thermopolis, Glenrock, Burns, Wright, Wheatland.

New 1A 11-man: West: Burlington, Cokeville, Wind River, Wyoming Indian, Riverside, Rocky Mountain, Saratoga, Shoshoni. East: Tongue River, Moorcroft, Upton-Sundance, Lusk, Lingle, Pine Bluffs, Southeast.

New 1A six-man: West: Snake River, Dubois, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens, Farson. East: Hulett, Kaycee, Midwest, Guernsey, Hanna, NSI, Rock River.

In other words, the WHSAA’s worst nightmare — an odd number of teams in both divisions of 1A.

An odd number of schools in each classification creates numerous scheduling problems. The WHSAA’s best option is to try to convince one of the six-man schools to opt up to 11-man to join Cokeville, or to have one of the 11-man schools voluntarily choose to opt down to six-man, even though such a move would make that team ineligible for the playoffs.

Fortunately (?), the state has an even number of programs for both the 2014 and 2015 schools; the future of the Upton-Sundance co-op won’t be known until after the agreement between the two schools ends after the 2015 season.

Again, remember these are only estimates. We won’t know for sure who’s going where until the official numbers are released, and enrollment numbers and ADMs are different. Nevertheless, enrollment numbers tend to be close enough to ADMs to allow for educated guesses like these….

–patrick

NSI’s Rojo resigns as coach

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Normative Services is looking for a new head football coach, as Jon Rojo resigned after one year with the team.

The Wolves went 1-6 last season, with their only victory coming against the Big Horn JV. NSI is moving from 11-man to six-man football this year.

NSI AD Shane Parker said the school hopes to have a replacement named soon.

For a full list of coaching changes in the state this year, click here.

–patrick

Wyoming wins Six-man Shootout against Nebraska

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For the second consecutive year, the Wyoming six-man all-stars beat Nebraska in the Six-man Shootout.

Wyoming beat Nebraska 40-26 on Saturday in Dubois. You can read a bout the game here.

–patrick

Meeteetse schedules Zero Week game in Texas

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The Meeteetse Longhorns are testing their six-man prowess in the most dramatic way possible — by taking their game to Texas.

The Longhorns will play at Robert Lee, Texas, in the season opener Aug. 30 in Robert Lee. The game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. CDT (6:30 p.m. MDT).

The Robert Lee High School Steers went 10-2 last season, losing in the second round of the Class 1A Six-Man Division 2 playoffs.

Robert Lee is in west-central Texas, about 70 miles southwest of Abilene and about 100 miles east of Midland. And it’s 1,156 miles from Meeteetse, according to Google Maps’ preferred route.

Robert Lee has 42 students in its high school.

Meeteetse, meanwhile, went 6-4 last season, losing to Snake River in the semifinals of the Wyoming six-man playoffs. The Longhorns do return the state’s leading rusher, Seth Bennett, who ran for 1,951 yards last year and also threw for 1,171.

The game marks only the second time a Wyoming high school will play a school from Texas and the first time a Wyoming high school will play in Texas. On Sept. 22, 1939, Natrona beat Pampa, Texas, 18-6 in Casper.

Meeteetse AD Cory Dziowgo said the team is looking to fundraise to help pay for the trip. If you’re interested in helping, you can contact Dziowgo at cdziowgo@park16.k12.wy.us or you can call the school at 307-868-2501.

–patrick

Six-man Shootout game between Wyoming, Nebraska set for Saturday

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The rosters have been set for the Six-man Shootout all-star football game between Wyoming and Nebraska.

The game will be played at 1 p.m. Saturday in Dubois. Teams check in and practices will begin Wednesday.

This the second year for the all-star game. Wyoming won last year’s game 54-52 in Arthur, Neb., by scoring 34 consecutive second-half points.

This year’s rosters:

Wyoming
Dubois: John Bartlett, Cody Flynn, Jesse Hawk, Kyle Tea.
Hanna: Rylie Richardson.
Hulett: Preston Neiman, Kellen Wilson.
Kaycee: James Caro, Markus Koch, Garrett Kremers.
Midwest: Anthony Butler, Bryce Cisneros.
Snake River: Cole Gourlay, Conner Lee, Grayson Lee, Clay Orchard, Manuel Quinteros.
Ten Sleep: Friscoe Erdahl.

Nebraska
Arthur County: Logan Lewis.
Elba/North Loup Scotia: Abe Dush, Jerrod Moody.
Elkhorn Valley: Taylor Hanson, Alex Ellison, Jacob Heldt.
Maywood: Aaron Doxon.
St. Edward: Josh Osantowski, Wyatt Jasa.
Silver Lake: Catarino Perez, Jayden Grabill.
Sioux County: Garrett Gray, Johnny Dunn.
Wauneta-Palisade: Connor Kayton, Jack McGraw, Weylin Davis, Logan Bischoff.

–patrick