Defending Class 3A champion Star Valley and defending 2A champion Wheatland will both enter 2016 with new head coaches.
Their odds of winning a second straight title with a new coach, given Wyoming’s history with such attempts, are long.
Of the 291 teams that have won Wyoming state championships, teams have tried for a repeat championship with a new coach 31 times (including Star Valley and Wheatland this year). So far, only two of those 31 teams have repeated as state champs.
Those two teams were the Byron team of 1958 and the Powell team of 1967.
Byron won the Class B 11-man championship in 1957 under Lou Maiben and won the title again in 1958 under new coach John Whatcott.
Powell, meanwhile, won the Class AA title under Vince Zimmer in 1966 and won the AA title for a second time in 1967 with Fran Gillette as the new coach.
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In general, Wyoming football teams repeat as state champions about 24 percent of the time (70 repeat champions out of 291 total championships).
Those odds drop significantly when considering if the team has a new head coach — those teams, like Star Valley and Wheatland this year, only repeat about 7 percent of the time (2 repeat champs with new coaches out of 29 teams with such opportunities so far).
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Star Valley enters 2016 with McKay Young as its new coach, replacing Chris Howell; Wheatland will have Tom Waring as its coach in 2016, as he takes over for Dusty Hudson. History shows they have tough — but not impossible — tasks ahead.
Neither Howell nor Hudson will be a head football coach in Wyoming this season. That means Walter Dowler will retain a unique spot among Wyoming head coaches all to himself: He’s the only coach to repeat as a state champion after jumping from one school to another. Dowler won the Class AA title as the head coach at Rock Springs in 1940, then repeated the AA title as the head coach at Cheyenne Central a year later.
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Just not in the same ways it was a couple years ago.
The 2015 season played out with uncertainty. No teams went undefeated, and neither one of the two top seeds in the playoffs reached the state title game.
The likelihood of such parity playing out again this year, though, is pretty slim. The favorites are loaded, and the distinction between lions and lambs seems clear.
But that’s why they play the games, right?
Four questions to answer
Can Upton-Sundance repeat? Not only can the Patriots repeat — they will be the favorites to do so. Of the Patriots’ six all-state selections last year, four were underclassmen. And with those four (seniors Hunter Woodard, John Sullivan and Thomas Davis and junior Dawson Butts), the Patriots will be the odds-on favorites to win Class 1A 11-man.
Is anyone else even in the discussion? Yes, but not really. Shoshoni could be Upton-Sundance’s biggest challenge to a title defense, and the two teams will play each other in Week 3 in what will likely be an anticlimactic feeling-out. Sure, you can throw in Tongue River, Cokeville, Rocky Mountain and Southeast into the conversation… but for now, these teams have a lot more to prove than Upton-Sundance does.
How much did reclassification affect 1A 11-man? In some ways, a bunch; in others, hardly at all. Riverside, Burlington and Lingle made the move to six-man, while Wright and Moorcroft flip-flopped spots between 2A and 1A 11-man. The biggest ripples from those changes will be felt in the nonconference part of the schedule; with only six teams per conference, nonconference travel has been greatly increased. However, of the teams that left the classification, only Lingle has been past the first round of the playoffs the past three years. Reclassification affected a lot but likely won’t affect who goes deep in the playoffs.
Is the East Conference still ahead of the West Conference? Yes. The talent in 1A 11-man definitely shifts to the East side of the state this year, just as it did last year. Although it’s unlikely the East will sweep the West in the first round of the playoffs as it did a year ago, the East Conference league schedule is definitely more challenging — and probably will prepare those teams better for the postseason.
Four players to watch
Brennan Kutterer, Tongue River. There wasn’t a single player in the state who averaged more defensive points per game last season than Kutterer, who led 11-man football regardless of classification with 282 defensive points (25.6 per game) and 76 solo tackles. However, he is the only one of the Eagles’ top four tacklers to return, making his return that much more critical to the Eagles’ hopes for another run at a title game.
J.J. Pingetzer, Shoshoni. The player closest to Kutterer’s heels in defensive points last season was Pingetzer — and Pingetzer is back this year, too. The Wrangler senior was the centerpiece of Class 1A 11-man’s best defenses last season, winning the West Conference’s defensive player of the year honors while notching nearly 12 tackles per game.
Ruger Lewis, Pine Bluffs. The senior led Class 1A 11-man with 168.4 rushing yards per game and finished the year with 1,179 yards. No returning player in the state, regardless of classification, comes close to Lewis’ yards per game average. On an improving Pine Bluffs team, Lewis might be primed for an even better season this fall.
Dawson Butts, Upton-Sundance. As a sophomore, Butts was a huge part of the Patriots’ title run, leading the team in rushing yards (1,202), receiving yards (181) and interceptions (four). Now that opponents know what he is capable of doing, he may be keyed on more this fall, but that should open up opportunities for his teammates, a nice benefit to have on a team that’s both deep and rich with talent.
Four key games
Shoshoni at Southeast, Sept. 9. One of the most appealing games of the nonconference schedule pits two teams that both have lofty goals this fall. Throw in the revenge angle — Shoshoni’s loss to Southeast in last year’s quarterfinals ended an undefeated season — and the game takes on a significance most early September games don’t have.
Pine Bluffs at Upton-Sundance, Sept. 23. The Hornets’ 3-4 finish in 2015 was a huge step forward. Their growth will be tested, though, in their first conference game, which just happens to come on the home field of the defending state champions.
Shoshoni at Cokeville, Oct. 21. For now, the Wranglers are the favorites in the West Conference; the Panthers aren’t. How that role reversal changes this Week 8 matchup will be intriguing to see play out.
Tongue River at Upton-Sundance, Oct. 21. The rematch of last year’s 1A 11-man title game doesn’t happen until the final week of the regular season. But that will only add to the suspense — by then, this game may have bigger things at stake than just the memories of 2015.
Predicted order of finish
East Conference: Upton-Sundance, Tongue River, Southeast, Pine Bluffs, Wright, Lusk. West Conference: Shoshoni, Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Saratoga, Wind River, Wyoming Indian.
Preseason top five: Upton-Sundance, Shoshoni, Tongue River, Southeast, Cokeville.
Way-too-early title game score prediction
Upton-Sundance 36, Shoshoni 20. The Patriots start the season head and shoulders above the rest of the classification. The question will be if they can stay there when every other team in the state starts gunning for them.
Cheesy 80s pop song that should play over the loudspeakers at War Memorial Stadium after this classification’s title game
Don’t You Forget About Me by Simple Minds. With Upton-Sundance the favorite to repeat as state champions, every other team is shouting this… And if U-S actually repeats, well, we won’t forget that, either.
So will it be a Patriot repeat? Will some underdog come in and spoil the fun for U-S fans? Will some team surprise us all? Let us see your predictions for 1A 11-man by leaving a comment.
Thanks to Jim Craig, who’s been indispensible with his help for the site, I’ve been able to make these additions/corrections:
Updated the Lovell-Cody game in 1957, which Cody won 41-6 on Nov. 5. I had the game, originally scheduled for Oct. 12, listed as canceled. However, it wasn’t canceled, it was postponed, and Cody won the rescheduled game.
Added Manderson’s 31-6 victory against Ten Sleep on Nov. 5, 1957. (Added to the missing games list because a location couldn’t be found.)
Added Pine Bluffs’ 33-31 victory against Huntley on Nov. 7, 1958, in Huntley.
Added North Big Horn’s 26-24 victory against the Lovell JV on Oct. 12, 1979. (Added to the missing games list because a location couldn’t be found.)
Added Big Horn’s 12-6 victory against the Buffalo JV on Sept. 23, 1972, in Big Horn.
Added Big Horn’s 35-6 loss to the Lovell JV on Oct. 27, 1972, in Lovell.
Corrected the location for Big Horn’s game against the Sheridan JV on Sept. 5, 1972; it was in Sheridan, not Big Horn.
Added Cokeville’s all-state selections to the 1995 Class 1A Division II all-state team.
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I also updated the stadiums page to reflect the new locations of stadiums in Laramie and Dubois for this season, as well as Laramie’s move to artificial turf. I also added the name “Jim Crawford Field” to Greybull’s stadium, which, apparently, has been the stadium’s name since the early 1970s. Thanks to Jordan Hunter on the wyoming-football Facebook page for pointing out that omission!
This fall, 12 Wyoming high school football programs will start their seasons with new coaches.
How long those coaches stay may be tied to the program they’re leading.
Programs taking to the field with new coaches in 2016 — so far — include Cheyenne South in Class 4A; Star Valley in Class 3A; Pinedale, Thermopolis and Wheatland in Class 2A; Rocky Mountain and Saratoga in Class 1A 11-man; and Burlington, Guernsey-Sunrise, Lingle, Rock River and Ten Sleep in Class 1A six-man.
The least surprising of these is Burlington; throughout their program history, the Huskies average a new coach every two and a half years. Burlington’s turnover rate — 28 head coaches in 69 years, through last season — is among the highest coaching turnover rates in the state. In fact, it’s second-highest among programs that have existed for more than 20 years, second only to nearby Meeteetse, which averages a new head coach once every 2.3 years.
The most surprising change based on expected coaching span is at Star Valley, which is 16th in the state with an average head coaching span of 4.8 years per coach, through last season.
The average Wyoming head football coach lasts 3.8 years. Some schools have an average coaching tenure significantly greater than that: Southeast has had only two coaches in its 39-year history, an average of 19.5 years per coach. Cokeville, with an average stay of 7.3 years per head coach, comes in second.
The schools that tend to have the shortest coaching tenures are also programs that haven’t been around long. The programs tied for the shortest average coaching tenures, Rock River and St. Stephens, average one new coach every two years. St. Stephens has had six coaches in its 12 years of existence, while Rock River has had just one in its two years.
Of the 12 programs with new coaches this year, seven programs fall below the average span of 3.8 years. Cheyenne South will fall below the average after this season begins.
Here’s a breakdown of the average tenure length per coach of Wyoming high school football programs, based on the number of years where the head coach is known and the number of coaches in that span. This list goes through 2015 and does not include coaches who will be new in 2016; it also includes both Upton and Sundance as separate programs as well as the Upton-Sundance co-op. From longest to shortest span:
Southeast (19.5 years average span, 2 coaches in 39 years)
Six-man football in 2016, in one word? Adjustment.
Welcome, Lingle, Riverside and Burlington, to the world of six-man football. Your entries make six-man as deep, as talented and as difficult to grasp as ever.
The status quo of six-man just got tossed aside — there’s too much new blood for the old ways to feel comfortable anymore.
And yet… and yet… even among all the change in the classification, the classification’s stability at the top remains unquestioned. The best teams on paper are familiar programs. At least in 2016, it looks like what we’ve come to know about six-man will remain consistent. Or, as consistent as it can be in a year of adjustment.
Four questions to answer
How will six-man’s newcomers affect the state title chase? Not all that much, to be honest. Three programs — Lingle, Riverside and Burlington — will move from 11-man to six-man this fall, but only Burlington will be eligible for the playoffs. Although Lingle and Riverside will be big in the regular season, their influence won’t extend to the postseason. For now.
Who should be in the title chase, then? The usual suspects. Kaycee and Meeteetse, last year’s state champion and state runner-up, have the talent needed to again be contenders. Only six players return from last year’s six-man all-state team, and half of them play for either the Buckaroos or the Longhorns.
Who’s everyone overlooking? Farson. The Pronghorns have some young but talented players returning — the team’s top three tacklers last year were all freshmen — and also draw a favorable schedule, playing what will likely be their most strenuous West Conference games (against Meeteetse, Snake River and Burlington) at home.
So there’s not a lot of parity, then? Wait, wait, wait… I didn’t say that. Actually, coaches say this may be the most wide-open year in recent six-man history, with six or seven teams possessing legitimate ability to run at a title, including under-the-radar teams like Guernsey-Sunrise and Snake River. The difference between the pack leaders and the also-rans is smaller than ever.
Four players to watch
Seth Frederick, Guernsey-Sunrise. Of all players in six-man, Frederick is the one who shows up most often by name when coaches across the state list the top players in the classification. With reason: He’s been an all-state pick twice. And if the Vikings are going to reach Laramie, it’ll be on the legs of Frederick, who is the team’s lone returning all-state player, and a player every coach in the state will devise defensive game plans to stop.
Dalton Abarr, Meeteetse. A two-time all-stater already, Abarr runs the Longhorns’ offense like a surgeon. He led the team in passing (1,391 yards, 30 touchdowns, zero interceptions) and rushing (881 yards, 20 touchdowns) last year. His role on defense was more limited, but Abarr’s leadership in his senior season will be a big piece of the Longhorns’ push for another title game trip.
Mark Largent, Kaycee. The junior was the leading tackler on the Buckaroos’ state championship team last season, and he leads a defense that returns four of its top six tacklers — meaning opponents won’t be able to key solely on him. He’s also one of Kaycee’s top receivers.
Dallen Fleenor, Lingle. The senior was an all-stater for the Doggers at the 11-man level after piling up 872 rushing yards, 78 defensive points and team highs in receiving yards (103) and interceptions (three). Fleenor’s versatility should make Lingle’s transition from 11-man to six-man easier than usual.
Four key games
Midwest at Normative Services, Sept. 9. The Oilers lost just one senior from last year’s team. The Wolves are coming off their first six-man playoff qualification. Both teams are eager to prove they belong, and they’ll settle their differences in the first week of conference play.
Burlington at Farson, Sept. 10. The Huskies’ first conference game in six-man comes on the road against the Pronghorns, a team that could be one of the classification’s best. This will be a good litmus test for both teams.
Meeteetse at Snake River, Sept. 16. The Longhorns and Rattlers finished 1-2 in last year’s West Conference standings, and this Week 3 showdown in Baggs may again decide who takes the top seed into the playoffs.
Kaycee at Guernsey-Sunrise, Sept. 30. Kaycee’s only conference loss last year came at the hands of the Vikings. Both teams figure to be chasing the East Conference title this year, so this one will again be important.
Predicted order of finish
East Conference: Guernsey-Sunrise, Kaycee, Lingle, Midwest, NSI, Hanna, Hulett, Rock River. West Conference: Meeteetse, Farson, Snake River, Riverside, Burlington, Dubois, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens.
Preseason top five: Meeteetse, Guernsey-Sunrise, Lingle, Farson, Kaycee.
Way-too-early title game score prediction
Meeteetse 44, Guernsey-Sunrise 36. The most interesting week in six-man might actually be the semifinals; enough parity exists in the classification to ensure that any team making it that far has a better-than-usual shot at a championship.
Cheesy 80s pop song that should play over the loudspeakers at War Memorial Stadium after this classification’s title game
Everybody Wants to Rule the World by Tears For Fears. Everybody wants to rule six-man… and what makes 2016 unique is that most of the teams in the classification are actually capable of doing so.
Maybe, just maybe, we’ll finally get a six-man championship game that’s actually close. Since six-man returned in 2009, title-game scores have been 76-16, 67-12, 54-33, 54-30, 65-30, 80-30 and 51-32. Unless you’ve actually made the trip to Baggs or Kaycee or Meeteetse or Farson, you probably haven’t seen just how exciting and competitive six-man football can really be. I think the parity’s in place not only for a competitive regular season but also for a heck of a title game.
Which team do you think has the best chance to hoist the title trophy come November? Leave your thoughts in a comment and let’s chat about it!
Curtis Cook, who has been an assistant coach the past five years at Guernsey-Sunrise, will be the Vikings’ head coach starting this fall.
Platte County School District No. 2 approved Cook’s hiring this week, Cook said via email to wyoming-football.com.
Cook will replace Chris Link, who resigned. Cook is also the technology coordinator for Guernsey’s school and has also been an assistant basketball coach for the Vikings.
The Midwest football team has set plans to play its home games in Casper this season — fallout from a leak of toxic chemicals from an abandoned oil well that closed the school indefinitely on May 26.
The school has yet to be reopened, even though the well near the school thought to be the source of the leak was plugged. Midwest students will start the school year in Casper, and games will be played in Casper as long as the school in Midwest remains closed.
Midwest games will be split between Natrona County and Kelly Walsh high schools, Midwest coach Ken Swieter and Midwest AD Susan Rodabaugh said.
Midwest has home games scheduled with Dubois (Week 1, Friday, Sept. 2); Lingle (Week 4, Friday, Sept. 23); Rock River (Week 5, Friday, Sept. 30) and Hanna (Week 8, Friday, Oct. 21) and also has a home Zero Week contest with Dubois and Snake River scheduled for Saturday, Aug. 27.
The games against Dubois, Rock River and Hanna have tentatively been set to be played at Natrona County, while the Zero Week contest and the Lingle game are tentatively scheduled for Kelly Walsh. Game times and dates would not change.
Hulett and Hanna are also scheduled to play their Week 3 game (Saturday, Sept. 17) in Midwest. Plans for that game were not immediately known.
Swieter said Midwest’s practices will either be at the old CY Junior High fields in Casper or at the park near the former Westwood Elementary in west Casper, which is where Midwest’s kindergarten through eighth-grade students will be housed until the Midwest school can be reopened.
A quick little tally I put together: Wyoming high school football coaches with at least 10 playoff wins entering the 2016 season. It’s no surprise to see Cokeville coach Todd Dayton at the top; however, the fact that he has more than twice as many victories as the coach in the second spot, Southeast’s Mark Bullington, is another testament to both Dayton’s skill and longevity.
In all, 29 coaches have at least 10 playoff victories. Of those 29, only one has a losing record in playoff games.
The list below includes the coaches, the schools they took to the playoffs at least once, and their overall playoff record:
1. Todd Dayton, Cokeville, 67-13
2. Mark Bullington, Southeast, 33-8
3. Steve Harshman, Natrona, 29-19
4. Jerry Fullmer, Lusk, 25-8
5. Joel Eskelsen, Big Piney, 24-14
6. Don Julian, Riverton/Sheridan, 23-9
7. (tie) John Scott, Kemmerer/Gillette/Tongue River, 20-7
7. (tie) Ray Kumpula, Glenrock, 20-10
9. (tie) Jay Rhoades, Douglas, 18-7
9. (tie) Ben Smith, Rocky Mountain, 18-8
9. (tie) Vic Wilkerson, Gillette, 18-10
9. (tie) Don Dinnel, Mountain View/Rawlins/Evanston, 18-12
13. Pat Lynch, Buffalo, 17-11
14. (tie) Bruce Keith, Sheridan/Kelly Walsh, 15-3
14. (tie) Chad Goff, Cheyenne East, 15-7
16. (tie) Jim Stringer, Powell, 14-5
16. (tie) John R. Deti, Laramie, 14-14
18. (tie) Robert Linford, Star Valley, 13-6
18. (tie) Mike Moon, Buffalo, 13-10
18. (tie) Bert Dow, Sheridan/Big Horn, 13-10
21. Bobby St. John, Big Horn, 12-5
22. (tie) Matt VandeBossche, Lusk, 11-9
22. (tie) Carl Selmer, Worland, 11-1
22. (tie) Michael McGuire, Riverside/Big Horn, 11-6
25. (tie) Mike Bates, Snake River, 10-5
25. (tie) Wade Sanford, Worland, 10-6
25. (tie) Andy Garland, Upton/Upton-Sundance, 10-7
25. (tie) Kay Fackrell, Lyman/Evanston, 10-9
25. (tie) Brick Cegelski, Cheyenne Central, 10-15
Added the score and corrected the date for Mountain View’s 19-0 victory against Cokeville on Sept. 24, 1964.
Added the score for Glendo’s 33-7 victory against Guernsey on Sept. 18, 1959. (Glenn Freeburg in Guernsey was helpful in finding this score. Thanks!)
Fixed the score for Douglas’ 13-6 victory against St. Mary’s on Oct. 3, 1959. (I had St. Mary’s winning by the same score.)
Updated Mark Smith’s name for Kelly Walsh on the 1972 Class AA all-state team; I had noted a “Smith” as an all-state pick but did not have his first name or his school.
Added Woodie Lawson’s name to the 1959 Class AA all-state team for Rawlins; I had noted a Rawlins selection, but the player’s name was illegible on my copy of that all-state team.
Corrected the spelling for Pavillion’s coach for 1959: It was Lee Dobyn, not Dobyns.
All the updates have been made on all the relevant pages.