Six-man football in 2016, in one word? Adjustment.
Welcome, Lingle, Riverside and Burlington, to the world of six-man football. Your entries make six-man as deep, as talented and as difficult to grasp as ever.
The status quo of six-man just got tossed aside — there’s too much new blood for the old ways to feel comfortable anymore.
And yet… and yet… even among all the change in the classification, the classification’s stability at the top remains unquestioned. The best teams on paper are familiar programs. At least in 2016, it looks like what we’ve come to know about six-man will remain consistent. Or, as consistent as it can be in a year of adjustment.
Four questions to answer
How will six-man’s newcomers affect the state title chase? Not all that much, to be honest. Three programs — Lingle, Riverside and Burlington — will move from 11-man to six-man this fall, but only Burlington will be eligible for the playoffs. Although Lingle and Riverside will be big in the regular season, their influence won’t extend to the postseason. For now.
Who should be in the title chase, then? The usual suspects. Kaycee and Meeteetse, last year’s state champion and state runner-up, have the talent needed to again be contenders. Only six players return from last year’s six-man all-state team, and half of them play for either the Buckaroos or the Longhorns.
Who’s everyone overlooking? Farson. The Pronghorns have some young but talented players returning — the team’s top three tacklers last year were all freshmen — and also draw a favorable schedule, playing what will likely be their most strenuous West Conference games (against Meeteetse, Snake River and Burlington) at home.
So there’s not a lot of parity, then? Wait, wait, wait… I didn’t say that. Actually, coaches say this may be the most wide-open year in recent six-man history, with six or seven teams possessing legitimate ability to run at a title, including under-the-radar teams like Guernsey-Sunrise and Snake River. The difference between the pack leaders and the also-rans is smaller than ever.
Four players to watch
Seth Frederick, Guernsey-Sunrise. Of all players in six-man, Frederick is the one who shows up most often by name when coaches across the state list the top players in the classification. With reason: He’s been an all-state pick twice. And if the Vikings are going to reach Laramie, it’ll be on the legs of Frederick, who is the team’s lone returning all-state player, and a player every coach in the state will devise defensive game plans to stop.
Dalton Abarr, Meeteetse. A two-time all-stater already, Abarr runs the Longhorns’ offense like a surgeon. He led the team in passing (1,391 yards, 30 touchdowns, zero interceptions) and rushing (881 yards, 20 touchdowns) last year. His role on defense was more limited, but Abarr’s leadership in his senior season will be a big piece of the Longhorns’ push for another title game trip.
Mark Largent, Kaycee. The junior was the leading tackler on the Buckaroos’ state championship team last season, and he leads a defense that returns four of its top six tacklers — meaning opponents won’t be able to key solely on him. He’s also one of Kaycee’s top receivers.
Dallen Fleenor, Lingle. The senior was an all-stater for the Doggers at the 11-man level after piling up 872 rushing yards, 78 defensive points and team highs in receiving yards (103) and interceptions (three). Fleenor’s versatility should make Lingle’s transition from 11-man to six-man easier than usual.
Four key games
Midwest at Normative Services, Sept. 9. The Oilers lost just one senior from last year’s team. The Wolves are coming off their first six-man playoff qualification. Both teams are eager to prove they belong, and they’ll settle their differences in the first week of conference play.
Burlington at Farson, Sept. 10. The Huskies’ first conference game in six-man comes on the road against the Pronghorns, a team that could be one of the classification’s best. This will be a good litmus test for both teams.
Meeteetse at Snake River, Sept. 16. The Longhorns and Rattlers finished 1-2 in last year’s West Conference standings, and this Week 3 showdown in Baggs may again decide who takes the top seed into the playoffs.
Kaycee at Guernsey-Sunrise, Sept. 30. Kaycee’s only conference loss last year came at the hands of the Vikings. Both teams figure to be chasing the East Conference title this year, so this one will again be important.
Predicted order of finish
East Conference: Guernsey-Sunrise, Kaycee, Lingle, Midwest, NSI, Hanna, Hulett, Rock River. West Conference: Meeteetse, Farson, Snake River, Riverside, Burlington, Dubois, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens.
Preseason top five: Meeteetse, Guernsey-Sunrise, Lingle, Farson, Kaycee.
Way-too-early title game score prediction
Meeteetse 44, Guernsey-Sunrise 36. The most interesting week in six-man might actually be the semifinals; enough parity exists in the classification to ensure that any team making it that far has a better-than-usual shot at a championship.
Cheesy 80s pop song that should play over the loudspeakers at War Memorial Stadium after this classification’s title game
Everybody Wants to Rule the World by Tears For Fears. Everybody wants to rule six-man… and what makes 2016 unique is that most of the teams in the classification are actually capable of doing so.
Maybe, just maybe, we’ll finally get a six-man championship game that’s actually close. Since six-man returned in 2009, title-game scores have been 76-16, 67-12, 54-33, 54-30, 65-30, 80-30 and 51-32. Unless you’ve actually made the trip to Baggs or Kaycee or Meeteetse or Farson, you probably haven’t seen just how exciting and competitive six-man football can really be. I think the parity’s in place not only for a competitive regular season but also for a heck of a title game.
Which team do you think has the best chance to hoist the title trophy come November? Leave your thoughts in a comment and let’s chat about it!
Next Thursday: Class 1A 11-man.
–patrick