Week 0 picks: Finding intrigue in the 4A lid-lifters

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Nothing comes easy in the game of football.

Class 4A’s “Big Four” programs have worked hard to reach the point they’re at — and they work hard to win the games they win.

When they do that, though, we tend to see games with scores like 63-0, 62-0, 58-6, 54-8, 50-0, 49-6… all scores of actual 4A games last year. Two 4A Zero Week games last year ended with identical 59-0 scores.

Thunder Basin, Natrona, East and Sheridan have been Class 4A’s consistent semifinalists and title contenders for the better part of a decade (subbing Thunder Basin in for Gillette starting two years ago), as previously documented here, here, here, here, here and elsewhere on this site.

The Week 0 schedule does not pit any of these “Big Four” teams against each other in the opening week, probably purposefully. Moreover, all the “Big Four” teams start their seasons at home. For those four teams, expect “easy” victories, knowing full-well that reaching that level of success isn’t easy by any stretch of the imagination.

Still, that means the most interesting game on the schedule for 4A, at least the one that looks the most interesting before the games are played, is the one between the two non-“Big Four” teams: Kelly Walsh at Laramie.

Kelly Walsh has a fresh approach under new coach Aaron Makelky. Everything from helmet stickers to personnel approaches has been revamped — something that all sounds good the first three weeks, before any opponents have smacked your ear hole. If KW can smack back, watch out.

Laramie, meanwhile, was 4A’s clear fifth team behind the “Big Four” last year. Actually, a loss to KW in Zero Week last year, a loss that looks odd in retrospect, was all that kept the Plainsmen from a .500 record in 2019. But the Plainsmen had a lot of losses to graduation and have to break in key players all over the place.

In short, I don’t know whether this game will be one of 4A’s best (two programs full of players eager to prove themselves could bring out the best in everyone) or one of 4A’s worst (unknown quantities are unpredictable and volatile, especially early in a season).

Either way, I think it should be close, and that’s probably more than we can say for any of the other 4A games this week.

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Outside of 4A, Zero Week is a hodgepodge of real games, scrimmages, jamborees and hand-sitting. I’ve done my best to give you an accurate representation of what’s happening this weekend, with changes often happening after schedules have been set and sent out.

Regardless, a few items on the schedule look interesting:

The game between a pair of champions in Utah should be fun, with the Beehive State’s 3A champion, Salt Lake Summit Academy, hosting the Equality State’s 3A champion, Star Valley. …

The Jackson-Teton rivalry game is this week, and after narrowly losing last year’s game, a revived Bronc program should have the advantage this year. …

The biggest jamboree of the weekend is in Shoshoni, where five teams (Kemmerer, Thermopolis, Wind River, Wyoming Indian and the host Wranglers) are scheduled to meet. Sounds like fun — and a scheduling headache. …

Here’s the full picks for Zero Week, with projected winners in bold, as I’ve done for a decade-plus:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Thunder Basin
Cheyenne South at Natrona
Gillette at Cheyenne East
Kelly Walsh at Laramie
Rock Springs at Sheridan
Class 3A
Powell at Riverton
Interclass
Big Piney at Cokeville
Moorcroft at Wright
Pinedale at Lander
Rawlins at Lyman
Tongue River at Greybull
Interstate
Custer, S.D., at Newcastle
Star Valley at Salt Lake (Utah) Summit Academy
Teton, Idaho, at Jackson
Upton-Sundance at Lead-Deadwood, S.D.
Saturday
Interclass
Natrona JV at Lovell
Rocky Mountain at Powell JV
Jamborees and scrimmages
Friday: Big Horn at Cody; Dubois, Encampment, Saratoga at St. Stephens Jamboree; Farson at Green River Jamboree; Glenrock at Pine Bluffs; Lingle, Midwest at Guernsey-Sunrise Jamboree; Mountain View at Green River.
Saturday: Burlington, Ten Sleep at Riverside Jamboree; Burns, Lusk, Torrington at Southeast Jamboree; Douglas at Wheatland; Kaycee, Meeteetse at Hulett Jamboree; Kemmerer, Thermopolis, Wind River, Wyoming Indian at Shoshoni Jamboree; Worland at Buffalo.
Open: Evanston, Hanna, NSI, Snake River.

For a full schedule including kickoff times, go here.

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As usual during Zero Week, here is a reminder of the rules I use to determine whether a Zero Week contest is a game or is something else:

  • 1. Was the game played with four 12-minute quarters with normal timing rules?
  • 2. Were officials used? And were normal rules of play instituted for the game?
  • 3. Was score kept?

If these three criteria are met, I call it a game and record it as such on this site.

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And now we’re finally ready for the 2019 season. What game/scrimmage/jamboree/competitive something-or-other will you watch this weekend? Leave a thought with a comment, a visit to our Facebook page or a stop by Twitter.

If you like what you see here, consider a page sponsorship. Just $20 will get you a page for an entire year — and it helps keep the site functioning! Thanks to all the current sponsors; they keep the dream alive.

–patrick

2019 Wyoming high school football preview magazine is out now!

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The 2019 edition of the Wyoming Sports Preview Guide magazine is now available!

Click here to read full team previews on every team in Wyoming.

This is the eighth year we’ve been able to bring this magazine to you. It’s the most comprehensive preview you’ll find anywhere. I interviewed every single head coach in the state (except one, as astute readers will notice), pored over stats, pestered ADs for schedules, predicted some winners — and it’s all here.

While the digital version is out today, the hard-copy version won’t be out for another week or so. When the hard copies do come out, you should be able to pick them up, for free, at the locations of the advertisers listed in the magazine. Please support the advertisers who support this magazine; it doesn’t happen without them.

Enjoy!

–patrick

Class 4A season preview: Thunder Basin threatens Natrona’s repeat attempt

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The king is dead.

Long live the king?

Sheridan’s run of consecutive Class 4A championships ended last season at three, as Natrona finally broke through to end the Broncs’ reign atop the big-school classification.

Natrona could be in line for a dynasty of its own. The Mustangs get back one of Wyoming’s most exciting running backs in Dante Wallace as well as a proven quarterback and a handful of other contributors from last season.

The most likely team to stop the Mustangs from forming a new 4A dynasty is Thunder Basin, which returns a bevy of contributors on defense and maybe the state’s most feared aerial pairing.

With a title, or a dynasty, at stake, the margin for error in 4A will be thin this year.

Four questions to answer

Does Natrona start the season as the favorite? As THE favorite? No. As one of them? Yes. The defending champs lost a ton of quality contributors to graduation but return enough offensive firepower to remain a threat to repeat. However, repeating isn’t in Natrona’s nature.

Who else is in the conversation? It’s 4A, so Sheridan, Cheyenne East and Thunder Basin. Of those, Thunder Basin appears to be in the best position to actually make a move at a title. After falling short in the semifinals at home against Sheridan last year, the ‘Bolts have to be motivated — and now, more mentally prepared for the rigors of the playoffs than they were last year.

So, the Big Four again? Yep, the big four again. None of the other six teams in 4A have yet shown they’re ready to be seriously considered as title contenders, or even semifinal contenders. However, Cheyenne Central appears improved, and coaching changes at Kelly Walsh and Rock Springs, as well as at Gillette, could bring shifting fortunes to 4A’s second tier.

What was that about new coaches? In case you missed it, two coaches from the ranks of smaller programs will get their shots to run 4A programs this year. Mark Lenhardt moves from back-to-back title game appearances at 3A Torrington to take on the head coaching job at Rock Springs, while Aaron Makelky moves from 2A Big Piney to Kelly Walsh. They, along with Andrew Rose — a promoted assistant at Gillette — will give 4A a new look this fall.

Four (OK, five) players to watch

Mason Hamilton and Blaine Allen, Thunder Basin. You can’t mention the ‘Bolts’ quarterback without mentioning his favorite receiver. Hamilton was dazzling as a junior, throwing for a state-high 2,592 yards and 31 touchdowns, while Allen led 4A with 805 receiving yards. Together, they give Thunder Basin an aerial pairing no one else can match — not only this year, but maybe ever.

Dante Wallace, Natrona. Wallace was 4A’s top rusher last year in basically every category. He had more carries (235), more yards (1,812) and more touchdowns (23) than any other back in 4A. And he’s back for more as a senior, ready to help Natrona in its repeat attempt.

Garrett Coon, Sheridan. Coon is a bit of a throwback. As a mixture of fullback and linebacker, Coon was one of 4A’s most physical players last season. He’ll likely take on more of a role in the Broncs’ offense, but it’ll be hard for him to do more than he did on defense last year, where he was fourth in 4A in total points and second in the classification with 101 total tackles.

Graedyn Buell, Cheyenne East. It might be easy to overlook Buell, whose sophomore season was cut short due to a broken ankle. But he put up steady stats (1,346 passing yards, 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions, 303 rushing yards) before the injury, and if he can be full speed on his return, he could once again be one of 4A’s most dynamic players.

Four (OK, five) key games

Natrona at Sheridan, and Thunder Basin at Cheyenne East, Sept. 13. The third game of the season will give us the first matchups of 4A’s “Big Four.” It’s likely that all four teams will be 2-0 at this point, and a victory here sets up the winners for the rest of the year — and puts the losers in chase mode.

Sheridan at Thunder Basin, Sept. 20. The rivalry game between the Broncs and the ‘Bolts doesn’t have a name yet. Maybe in its third year — and its fourth iteration, after Sheridan beat Thunder Basin in Gillette in last year’s semifinals — it should get one. I humbly submit the “Basin to Bighorns Bowl,” with the ‘Bolts and Broncs playing in Buffalo with blue jerseys and brown footballs and a halftime show of babies, balloons and banjos. Despite all the “B’s,” expect an A-level performance in this one.

Natrona at Thunder Basin, Oct. 4. On paper, the Mustangs and ‘Bolts have the two most talented teams in 4A this year. This Week 5 game in Gillette will likely set the pace for the second half of the season.

Cheyenne East at Sheridan, Oct. 25. No matter how you look at it, this game between two perennial contenders will have huge playoff implications. The fact that it comes right before the playoffs will only heighten the anticipation.

Predicted order of finish

Thunder Basin; Natrona; Sheridan; Cheyenne East; Rock Springs; Cheyenne Central; Kelly Walsh; Laramie; Gillette; Cheyenne South.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Thunder Basin 35, Natrona 26. The ‘Bolts’ offensive stars will get a lot of the preseason, and mid-season, and post-season, attention. However, an unheralded but, by 4A standards, experienced defense could be the unit that carries Thunder Basin to its first state championship.

Stadium tour and season preview video

What do you think? Is the Big Four going to keep 4A football boring until the semifinals? Or is 4A actually more complicated than I’m giving it credit for? Leave a comment, or drop a line on Twitter or Facebook.

–patrick

Class 3A season preview: Star Valley’s dominance faces conference challengers

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The records alone indicate how dominant Star Valley has been the past four seasons.

10-1 in 2015.

11-1 in 2016.

10-1 in 2017.

10-2 in 2018.

Along the way, the Braves have won three straight championships, falling short only in 2017.

This year, the Braves will try to win their fourth title in five years, and on paper, this year’s team could be one of the program’s all-time best.

To win the title this year, though, they’ll have to survive a rugged and talented West Conference. Specifically, Cody returns four all-state players while Jackson returns a 2,000-yard rusher.

The Braves will also have to survive a tough schedule that includes a season opener against the defending 3A champions from Utah, Summit Academy, and a Week 2 game against the defending 3A champions from Idaho, Sugar-Salem (which destroyed Star Valley in a game last year).

Meanwhile, across the state, Douglas has the potential to be the best team in the East, Worland is slowly climbing and Torrington is regrouping after back-to-back losses in the championship game.

Regardless, Star Valley is still king — and everyone else in 3A is trying to find a way to avoid being the Braves’ jester.

Four questions to answer

Can anyone catch Star Valley? Probably not. The Braves return five all-state and seven all-conference players; both those totals are higher than any other 3A team in the state. They return key players on the line and in the backfield.

Who’s the Braves’ biggest threat? Someone named the Broncs. Cody has four quality all-state players returning and has the most diversity and athleticism of any potential title-game opponent. And they’ve proven they can go into Afton and win (see 2017). Jackson, meanwhile, returns a ton of playmakers and is a legit title threat, as well.

Will the East Conference produce anyone who’s a threat for the title? It’s not likely. After back-to-back title game losses, Torrington has a new coach who will need time to rebuild after some devastating losses to graduation. Douglas returns three all-staters and is the early favorite to win the conference, but the Bearcats will need something special to hang with the best from the West. And Worland and Lander are both capable but unproven.

So, I should watch Star Valley every chance I get? Now hold on. If I have a chance to watch any 3A team this fall, I’m watching Jackson. Jeydon Cox is a dynamic rushing threat, and I’m excited to see him chase down a second 2,000-yard rushing season. Per my unofficial records, only six players have hit 2,000 rushing yards in a season in state history, and Cox could be the first to make it happen twice in a career.

Four players to watch

Jeydon Cox, Jackson. Obviously. Look at this number: 2,257. That’s the number of rushing yards Cox had last year over 10 games. It’s an insane level of productivity, and the Broncs will be one of the strongest teams in the state if for no other reason than Cox is back this fall.

R.J. Cazier, Star Valley. While we’re talking about running backs, let’s not overlook Cazier, who ran for 1,212 yards last year in helping the Braves to the 3A championship. The consistency Cazier gave to the Braves’ rushing attack will be a key piece of their attack in 2019, as well.

Chase Merrell, Star Valley. Merrell is getting serious consideration from colleges thanks to a breakout junior season. He was Star Valley’s leading receiver with 23 catches for 496 yards, and he was also the Braves’ No. 2 tackler and led 3A with eight interceptions.

Parker Merritt, Star Valley. How can anyone overlook Merritt, who was the 3A West lineman of the year last year as a junior? In short, no one can. He was a key piece of the Braves’ rushing attack on offense, and on defense he efficiently racked up 50 tackles. (And in case you’re counting, yes, that’s three players from Star Valley.)

Four key games

Jackson at Cody, Sept. 27. Both Bronc squads have visions of state championships this season — and for good reason. The West Conference opener for both squads is key to fulfilling that vision, with the winner taking the early lead for the conference title.

Torrington at Douglas, Oct. 4. Either Torrington or Douglas has won the East Conference championship every year since 2013. One way or another, the path to the East’s top playoff seed still goes through this game.

Jackson at Star Valley, Oct. 11. One of the toughest things for Jackson this season is that the games that look like the Broncs’ toughest — the ones against Cody and Star Valley — are both on the road. If Jackson can sneak out this road victory in a rivalry game, look out.

Star Valley at Cody, Oct. 18. This game between the Braves and Broncs has always been a key West Conference game. The past two years, though, the rivalry has taken on added meaning, as a pair of semifinal meetings has added a competitive spirit to a game that’s already full of it.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Douglas, Worland, Torrington, Lander, Rawlins, Riverton.

West Conference: Star Valley, Jackson, Cody, Powell, Green River, Evanston.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Star Valley 35, Jackson 21. On paper, the Braves and the Broncs have enough returning talent to be the preseason favorites. A bunch of things could derail this matchup — maybe a Cody victory in the West Conference opener, maybe a surge from Douglas, maybe one of 3A’s famous playoff upsets — but all indicators keep pointing to this as the matchup we’ll see in Laramie.

Stadium tour and season preview video

What do you think? Is Star Valley’s dynasty destined to continue? Or can Cody, Douglas, Jackson or someone else end the Braves’ dominant run? Leave a comment, or drop a line on Twitter or Facebook.

Next week: Class 4A preview.

–patrick

Kelly promoted to head coach’s spot at Midwest

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A familiar person around Natrona County will be the new head football coach at Midwest.

Dean Kelly will lead the Oilers in 2019. Both Kelly and Midwest activities director Michael Gibson verified the hiring via email to wyoming-football.com on Monday.

Kelly teaches math at Midwest and was the head girls basketball coach the past two years. He was also an assistant coach with the Oilers’ football team the past two years.

Prior to moving to Midwest, Kelly was the principal at Natrona County High School in Casper. He was also previously the athletic director for the Natrona County School District and, before that, taught math at NCHS, starting in 1997.

He also previously taught and coached in Glenrock from 1992-97 and Stanton County High School in Kansas from 1989-92. He was an assistant football coach for nine years in that span, plus the two years at Midwest. He also coached basketball and track, with three years as the boys basketball head coach at Stanton County and four years as the girls basketball head coach at Glenrock.

He resigned as NC’s principal in 2014 after assuming the job before the start of the 2007-08 school year.

Kelly replaces Ken Swieter, who resigned after 12 years as Midwest’s head coach to become an assistant at Kelly Walsh. Gibson will join the coaching staff as an assistant coach, he said.

Other Wyoming high schools with new head coaches for 2019 include Kelly Walsh, Gillette, Rock Springs, Evanston, Torrington, Glenrock, Lovell, Big Piney, Pinedale, Wyoming Indian, Kaycee, Meeteetse, NSI and Ten Sleep.

–patrick

2019 dream road trip for Wyoming high school football

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Unlimited money. Unlimited time. A schedule full of Wyoming high school football games.

Two of these, I don’t have.

But if I had all three, and I could spend my Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays parading around the state catching as many of the best games in the state as I could, I’d need a plan.

This is that plan — the games I would watch if I had the time and money to spend the fall the best way I know how.

Week 0: Rock Springs at Sheridan, 6 p.m. Friday; Natrona JV at Lovell, 2 p.m. Saturday. Call this one the week of introductions. With this swing up northern Wyoming, I’m able to see new Rock Springs coach Mark Lenhardt in his 4A debut against the perennially tough Broncs. Then a quick trip over the Bighorn Mountains will give me a chance to see new Lovell coach Nicc Crosby in his debut with the Bulldogs.

Week 1: Riverton JV at Kemmerer, 7 p.m. Thursday; Pinedale at Lyman, 1 p.m. Friday; Laramie at Rock Springs, 6 p.m. Friday; Guernsey-Sunrise at Farson, 1 p.m. Saturday. Southwestern Wyoming has a ton of great games on the docket in Week 1, and I didn’t even get to what might be the best one (Cokeville-Mountain View, inconveniently scheduled for 4 p.m. Friday). I like seeing a Week 1 conference game with Pinedale-Lyman, and I’d be curious to see how Farson stacks up as it starts its title defense.

Week 2: Lingle at NSI, 1 p.m. Friday; Natrona at Sheridan, 7 p.m. Friday; Midwest at Hanna, 2 p.m. Saturday. The Mustangs-Broncs 4A title game rematch is the clear winner on the schedule for Week 2. Before and after, I’d sneak in a pair of six-man games, even though the jaunt from Sheridan to Hanna isn’t a short one.

Week 3: Riverton JV at Shoshoni, 6 p.m. Thursday; St. Stephens at Burlington, 2 p.m. Friday; Douglas at Powell, 6 p.m. Friday; Ten Sleep at Riverside, 2 p.m. Saturday. I’d be curious to see how Douglas looks… and Powell, too, for that matter. Seeing them together is a great option. Around that are a bunch of interesting games that make for easy travel.

Week 4: Natrona JV at Rocky Mountain, 5 p.m. Thursday; Meeteetse at Burlington, 2 p.m. Friday; Jackson at Cody, 6 p.m. Friday; Dubois at Ten Sleep, 2 p.m. Saturday. The Northwest corner gets two straight weeks of attention because, well, that Jackson-Cody game is the most intriguing game on the 3A schedule this year. Everything else is just gravy.

Week 5: Hulett at Kaycee, 2 p.m. Friday; Natrona at Thunder Basin, 7 p.m. Friday. Scenarios exist where I could catch more games, but there’s no way I’d miss Natrona-Thunder Basin, which could be the biggest 4A game of the season.

Week 6: Mountain View at Lyman, 1 p.m. Friday; Jackson at Star Valley, 6 p.m. Friday; Farson at Snake River, 2 p.m. Saturday. Mountain View-Lyman is always good; Jackson-Star Valley could be the most intense 3A game of the year; Farson-Snake River has playoff implications all over it. The drive from Afton to Baggs is a long one, but it’ll be worth it here.

Week 7: Star Valley JV at Cokeville, 4 p.m. Thursday; Riverside at St. Stephens, 2 p.m. Friday; Rocky Mountain at Wind River, 6 p.m. Friday; Hanna at Kaycee, noon Saturday. The Rocky Mountain-Wind River rivalry has taken on a new dynamic now that they play each other twice a year, and it’d be fun to see that play out. And the Hanna-Kaycee game on Saturday could be a fun one in the six-man East Conference.

Week 8: NSI at Kaycee, 1 p.m. Friday; Cheyenne East at Sheridan, 6 p.m. Friday; Lingle at Hulett, 1 p.m. Saturday. The Northeast corner gets some love this week, as the East-Sheridan game is always good and the others are six-man afternoon showdowns that could be just as fun.

What game is your can’t-miss game of the year? Leave a comment below and let’s hash out our road trip plans.

–patrick

Class 2A season preview: Buffaloes and Bison battle for supremacy (again)

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Class 2A championships aren’t supposed to be won as easily as the way Buffalo won its title in 2018.

After opting up to play in Class 3A in 2016 and 2017, the Bison entered 2A last year as one of the favorites to win the title. They had several things going for them — their size (biggest school in 2A), their talent, their recent experience against bigger 3A programs.

Bolstered by all of that, the Bison lost just once in 2018 (7-0 to 3A Douglas in the season opener) and won their final 10 games to claim the 2A title, the program’s first championship since the dominant 2005 squad won it all in 3A.

Only one team stayed within single digits of the Bison, and even the championship game turned into a rout as Buffalo bumped off Mountain View 43-18.

Whether the Bison’s title was the start of a dynasty or a coalescing of multiple right factors at the right time will be seen in 2019. For now, though, everyone’s chasing the little-guys-turned-big-guys, who are now defending a title instead of chasing one.

Four questions to answer

Was Buffalo’s championship the start of a new 2A dynasty? Possibly. The Bison get back five all-state players from last year’s title team, setting them up well for a repeat in 2019. If that momentum can keep building, the Bison could be the team to beat in 2020, too.

Who’s Buffalo’s biggest threat? Mountain View, again. Just like Buffalo, Mountain View returns five all-state players. And like Buffalo, Mountain View has seen a ton of success in the postseason recently. Mountain View will start as the favorite in the 2A West and, if everything falls together by November, the Buffalos could notch their first undefeated season since 1997.

Will anyone else challenge for a championship? Probably not. Mountain View and Buffalo return five all-state players apiece; the rest of 2A, combined, has four (Burns’ Boe Clayson, Kemmerer’s A.Q. Martinez, Moorcroft’s Rowdy Pfeil and Thermopolis’ Logan Cole). The talent gap between Buffalo and Mountain View and the rest of 2A is pretty wide this season, so any dark horses will need a bunch of talent to develop quickly to put up a legitimate challenge to the top squads.

Will the West Conference have as much parity in the middle as it did last year? Almost certainly. No one represented the West’s parity like Pinedale, which won conference games by scores of 28-22, 21-14 and 14-6 and lost them by scores of 14-7, 21-14, 12-6 — a net score of plus-one in six games decided by eight points or less. With basically every team (outside of Mountain View) returning similar talent at similar levels, the rest of the West appears to be a crapshoot, one that will be decided in tight games week after week.

Four players (OK, three players and a unit) to watch

Hunter Gross, Mountain View. When coaches get together to award player of the year honors, they almost always go to a senior. Not last year, and not for Gross, who won the 2A lineman of the year award as a junior. He was second for the Buffalos in defensive points and racked up a team-high eight sacks — and he could be even more dominant this year.

Rowen Ruby, Buffalo. Ruby was one of 2A’s most consistent running backs last season, finishing with 1,072 yards (7.5 per carry) and 14 touchdowns. The Bison’s featured running back could have an even better season in 2019; Buffalo graduated its quarterback, its top receiver and its No. 2 running back, putting Ruby in a much brighter spotlight.

Dawson Hatch, Buffalo. Hatch was all over the field for the Bison last year, finishing first for the team in defensive points. He somehow finished with 10 tackles for loss and six interceptions, helping prove his versatility. And he was Buffalo’s No. 2 receiver and even carried the ball a few times.

Everyone from Mountain View’s backs and receivers. How do you stop Mountain View’s offense? You don’t — not with all the returning talent the Buffalos have, and not with their ability to place basically anyone in any spot at any time. Briggin Bluemel ran for 1,106 yards and Kimball Madsen added 985; Madsen threw for 866 yards and Braeden Walk chipped in 381; Walk led the team with 468 receiving yards, Ashton Schofield had 300, Bluemel had 163 and Madsen 140. The versatility the Buffalos have — particularly with those four players — makes them a challenge for any opposing defense.

Four key games

Pinedale at Kemmerer, Sept. 20. With the parity on display in the West Conference last year, this Week 3 game — after both teams have already played Lyman to open their conference schedules in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively — will tell us a lot about the makeup of a tumultuous West Conference.

Buffalo at Burns, Sept. 20. The Bison’s first road conference game of 2019 will be in eastern Laramie County against an up-and-coming Burns squad. A Buffalo victory here will be key in a repeat attempt… but a Broncs upset could completely change the outlook for the rest of the season for every team in the East.

Greybull at Mountain View, Oct 25. These two teams have been in the West Conference’s top three finishers every season since 2014, and last year they finished as the top two teams in the conference. A Week 8 showdown could determine the conference champion again this year.

Thermopolis at Burns, Oct. 25. Both teams are ready to make leaps up the East Conference standings this season. If they both capitalize on that potential through the season, this Week 8 meeting could be absolutely huge.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Buffalo, Thermopolis, Burns, Glenrock, Wheatland, Moorcroft, Newcastle.

West Conference: Mountain View, Greybull, Kemmerer, Big Piney, Lovell, Lyman, Pinedale.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Mountain View 28, Buffalo 26. The Buffaloes have been scary consistent, with four trips to Laramie in the past six years. With a deep and motivated senior class, this just might be Mountain View’s year to return to the top of 2A. But Buffalo is the defending champs, and the Bison won’t make anything easy.

Stadium tour and season preview video

What do you think? Is another Mountain View-Buffalo championship game inevitable? Or is there someone outside of last year’s two title-game teams who could challenge for the 2A championship? Is 2A is any deeper than the two teams that are on top on paper? Leave a comment, or drop a line on Twitter or Facebook.

Next week: Class 3A preview.

–patrick

Is conference YPG differential Wyoming’s key high school football stat?

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As always, Phil Steele’s annual college football preview magazine is a source of inspiration for looking at football, and football stats, in new ways.

Last year, I broke down the Yards Per Point stat that’s highlighted in the Phil Steele preview. This year, though, I wanted to look at something else — the yards per game differential in conference games.

Using last year’s final stats, I broke out the game-by-game statistics and looked at how the yards gained compared to the yards allowed in conference games — and then simply subtracted to find the difference.

Of course, yards aren’t the be-all, end-all statistic to track team strength. No stat is, really, although the closest is obviously a team’s win-loss record. But even wins and losses can sometimes be deceiving, so breaking out yards as a measure of a team’s relative strength can be useful to identify teams that either under- or over-performed based on what we might expect based on how many yards a team gained and gave up.

When I applied this measure to the 2018 Wyoming high school football season, some interesting revelations emerged:

  • Class 2A champ Buffalo was fourth in its own conference in yardage difference.
  • Class 3A Jackson obliterated the rest of the West Conference in yards gained, yet Star Valley went unbeaten in conference play and won the 3A title.
  • There’s a huge gulf between the top and bottom teams in the 1A 11-man East.
  • The teams that went winless in conference play (Gillette, Riverton, Powell, Newcastle, Lovell and Southeast) all finished last in their respective conferences in YPG differential.

Of course, one of the big things you can try to do with this data is compare it to conference standings and compare differences. Teams that finish higher in the conference standings but lower in YPG might have been more fortunate, or won more close games, or won the turnover battle — things that may not carry over to next season. The teams with the biggest differences were Laramie (fifth in 4A, but eighth in YPG) and previously mentioned Buffalo. Two other teams that might have been more “fortunate” in their win-loss records than the YPG would suggest were Big Piney (finished tied for second in the conference standings but was fifth in YPG) and Lander (finished third in the conference but fifth in YPG).

The team that was the least “fortunate” in its win-loss record may have been Thermopolis. The Bobcats finished fourth in the 2A East but were second in YPG differential.

The full YPG stats for conference play are below. (For Class 4A, total yards in all games, regular season and playoff, are included. No stats are included for Class 1A six-man, where per-game stat-keeping is inconsistent, as well as for Wyoming Indian, which played only one conference game.) And if you need a reminder of how the conference standings actually came together last year, click here.

Class 4AOff YPGDef YPGDifference
Natrona410.2206.4203.8
Thunder Basin403.3212.3191.0
Sheridan318.8242.476.4
Cheyenne East341.0323.917.1
Kelly Walsh308.6346.3-37.7
Cheyenne Central272.2316.7-44.5
Rock Springs224.6272.1-47.5
Laramie225.3302.4-77.1
Cheyenne South223.1378.8-155.7
Gillette147.2389.8-242.6
Class 3A EastOff YPGDef YPGDifference
Torrington448.8190.4258.4
Douglas361.6261.899.8
Worland262.2299.4-37.2
Rawlins220.0313.2-93.2
Lander238.0348.4-110.4
Riverton245.6363.0-117.4
Class 3A WestOff YPGDef YPGDifference
Jackson397.6234.8162.8
Star Valley323.0277.445.6
Cody278.4300.6-22.2
Evanston313.8353.6-39.8
Green River249.8299.8-50.0
Powell197.8294.2-96.4
Class 2A EastOff YPGDef YPGDifference
Glenrock417.5170.0247.5
Thermopolis374.8229.5145.3
Wheatland358.2217.2141.0
Buffalo320.3260.360.0
Burns296.3377.5-81.2
Moorcroft198.8332.0-133.2
Newcastle172.7431.2-258.5
Class 2A WestOff YPGDef YPGDifference
Mountain View324.5165.2159.3
Greybull330.5248.881.7
Kemmerer211.2210.50.7
Pinedale245.0263.7-18.7
Big Piney231.3257.4-26.1
Lyman223.6250.0-26.4
Lovell163.2326.7-163.5
Class 1A 11-man EastOff YPGDef YPGDifference
Big Horn434.8194.0240.8
Pine Bluffs313.7189.0124.7
Upton-Sundance411.5290.8120.7
Lusk236.8330.7-93.8
Tongue River199.7303.2-103.5
Wright212.0328.8-116.8
Southeast193.6364.8-171.2
Class 1A 11-man WestOff YPGDef YPGDifference
Cokeville314.3153.3161.0
Wind River218.3223.7-5.3
Shoshoni307.0326.3-19.3
Rocky Mountain147.0283.3-136.3

Note: Big Piney and Lyman totals do not include yards that Lyman’s offense gained against Big Piney. Similarly, Pine Bluffs and Southeast totals do not include yards that Southeast’s offense gained against Pine Bluffs. Those totals were not available in the end-of-year season statistics.

So… whose win-loss record in conference play doesn’t match their yardage difference? What might that say about who’s ready for a breakthrough in 2019? Leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter or Facebook.

–patrick

Class 1A 11-man season preview: What’s the encore for Big Horn?

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Well, Big Horn, how do you come up with an encore for that?

The Rams were more than just dominant in 2018 on their way to the Class 1A 11-man title. The numbers speak for themselves — 11-0 record, a state 11-man record 577 points scored, a title-game victory margin of 53 points, a state record for most points scored in a three-game playoff series… and on and on.

Now, the Rams have to find a way to remain competitive despite graduating seven all-state picks. Somehow, they have six other all-state picks coming back, and Big Horn remains the favorite to win 1A 11-man even with all the changes.

Part of the reason the Rams are drawing so much respect is because the talent well is just that deep in Big Horn. And part of it is that the Rams proved they could handle change last season when they shifted head coaches, giving Kirk McLaughlin a perfect start to his head coaching career with that dominant season.

If anyone can handle high expectations AND transition at the same time, it’s Big Horn. However, a repeat of last year’s record-setting season would be a surprise — and challengers like Upton-Sundance, Pine Bluffs and Cokeville will make an undefeated season in and of itself a challenge.

Four questions to answer

What makes Big Horn the favorite again? Returning firepower. In short, no other team returns what Big Horn returns this fall. The six returning all-state players is the highest number in the state regardless of classification, and with so many key players back from an undefeated team, the Rams start the year as the favorites.

Who’s most likely to challenge Big Horn for the top spot? Is “pick ’em” an option? Several squads return key chunks of players, including Upton-Sundance, Pine Bluffs and Lusk from the East and Cokeville, Rocky Mountain and Shoshoni from the West. Any one of those teams is capable of pulling off a first-round playoff victory given the right circumstances, although Upton-Sundance appears on paper to be the most capable of challenging Big Horn for both conference and state title honors.

What was that about Lusk? Oh yeah, Lusk is a thing again. The Tigers return four of their five all-conference choices from last year, including a pair of all-staters in senior Damien Molzahn and junior Drake Lamp. After missing the playoffs last year thanks to a little bad luck in a coin flip, Lusk should be a contender again this year.

What about the West Conference? In short — what about it? Aside from Cokeville, the conference was disappointing in the postseason last year, with the No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds losing first-round games by scores of 67-8, 54-0 and 56-0. With Saratoga playing six-man and Wyoming Indian playing a patchwork schedule, four teams are eligible for the four playoff spots out of the West — not exactly conditions conducive to creating playoff-ready, tested squads.

Four players to watch

Quinn McCafferty, Big Horn. Any discussion of the Rams’ hopes this year starts with the man under center. McCafferty led Class 1A 11-man with 1,731 passing yards (157.4 per game). His completion percentage of 63.4 (92 of 145) was by far the best among 1A, and he had a 27-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. His presence will keep the Rams stable in a new season.

Will Pelissier, Big Horn. Pelissier is a rare player that can show up in the top 10 of the classification in both the rushing and receiving categories. He was ninth in 1A in rushing last year, carrying 82 times for 653 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he was just as dangerous through the air, finishing with 20 catches for 429 yards. As a senior, both yardage totals could go up as Pelissier gets even more opportunities.

Dax Yeradi, Wright. The Panthers broke a long streak last year by qualifying for the playoffs, and Yeradi was a big reason why. As the Class 1A 11-man leader in defensive points each of the past two years, Yeradi has consistently proven his ability to provide huge plays (class-high seven interceptions last year) and keep Wright in games.

Jayden Caylor, Upton-Sundance. As a junior, Caylor was instrumental in the Patriots’ run in the playoffs. He led U-S in several key statistics, including rushing (779 yards), receiving (331 yards), scoring (110 points), tackles (91), and defensive points (147). As the Patriots’ only returning all-state player, Caylor might see his responsibilities increase in 2019 — as if that’s possible.

Four key games

Big Horn at Upton-Sundance, Sept. 27. This showdown between the Patriots and the Rams is always key — and the Rams have always had the upper hand. Big Horn is 2-0 against the U-S co-op, winning 55-14 last year and 53-13 the year before that.

Cokeville at Rocky Mountain, Oct. 11. The Panthers appear to be ready to cruise to yet another West Conference title, and no one appears to be in a position to put up much of a fight against that. However, the up-and-coming Grizzlies, at home in Week 6, are in the best position to catch the Panthers in a potential trap game.

Upton-Sundance at Pine Bluffs, Oct. 18. This game between the Patriots and Hornets has had playoff implications for the past several years. Expect similar stakes this year, where a victory could mean the difference between having a home playoff game and not.

Pine Bluffs at Lusk, Oct. 25. A lot of people are looking at Lusk as a potential breakout team in 2019. If the Tigers uphold their end of the expectations, this Week 8 meeting at home against perennially tough Pine Bluffs could have higher stakes than pride on the line.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Big Horn, Upton-Sundance, Pine Bluffs, Lusk, Tongue River, Wright, Southeast.

West Conference: Cokeville, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Wind River, Wyoming Indian.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Big Horn 34, Upton-Sundance 24. By acclimation, the Rams are the favorites in 1A this year. A surprise might be waiting somewhere along the line, but as of August, the Rams are in the best position to be the last team standing come November.

Stadium tour and season preview video

What do you think? Can Big Horn keep up the pace it set for itself last year? Could Upton-Sundance, Pine Bluffs or someone else end the Rams’ run in the East? Is Cokeville, of all programs, being overlooked? Leave a comment, or drop a line on Twitter or Facebook.

Next week: Class 2A preview.

–patrick

Class 1A six-man season preview: Carbon County rivals rise up

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After two consecutive runner-up finishes, Farson finally won its first state football championship last year.

And how.

The Pronghorns stampeded their way to an 11-0 finish, outscoring their opponents 790-231, and won the state title game 73-38.

The question facing six-man in 2019, though, is if the Pronghorns are still the favorites despite losing several key playmakers to graduation.

Although the Pronghorns figure to be in the hunt, the tides are shifting a bit in six-man. The East Conference — which went 0-for-4 in its first-round playoff games last year — is much stronger this year, with Hanna the favorite to take the top seed. Snake River could emerge from a weaker but still competitive West. Burlington learned a lot from its runner-up finish. And several other teams return enough players to stay competitive and potentially pull a playoff upset or two.

While Farson was the favorite from start to finish last season, no team takes that honor this year. In what might be six-man’s most wide-open season since its inception in 2009, no team is the definitive favorite.

Four questions to answer

What’s different about six-man this year? The conference balance. Last year, the West dominated the East; the West was much stronger, top to bottom, and East teams didn’t win a single playoff game. This year, though, the East has 14 returning all-conference players, total, while the West has eight. While East teams won’t be as dominant as West teams were last year, they’ll be much more competitive than they were in 2018.

So which team from the East has the best chance of upsetting the West’s dominance? Hanna. The Miners were undefeated in the regular season last year before losing to West No. 4 seed Burlington in the first round. They return most of their key players from 2018, including the McGraw twins (Conor and Shane), who play equally important roles. That was shown in one key statistic, total offense — Shane had 1,596 yards of total offense last year, while Conor had a nearly identical 1,590.

So let’s get to it — who’s gonna win the state championship? Probably Snake River. The Rattlers will have close to a dozen seniors on this year’s team, including a pair of all-staters in Riggen Myers and Wyatt Duncan. After finishing third in the West and reaching the semis last year, Snake River has the chance to be the team everyone else is chasing.

Who’s ready to surprise everyone? Riverside. The Rebels had a roster last year that included zero seniors, one junior, three sophomores and eight freshmen. Although the Rebels are still ineligible for postseason play — and will move to nine-man in 2020 — they could have a heck of a final year in six-man if the young players develop quickly.

Four players to watch

Riggen Myers, Snake River. Myers was a beast on both offense and defense for the Rattlers. Last year, he ran for 1,398 yards and 24 touchdowns while also piling up 207 defensive points and 71 total tackles. On a senior-laden Rattler team, Myers will be the pacesetter.

Conor McGraw, Hanna. The Miners’ dynamic McGraw twins fulfill different, but similar, roles. It’s Conor McGraw’s role to run the ball (881 yards, 14 touchdowns last year) and lead the defense (207 points, second-best in six-man last season).

Shane McGraw, Hanna. Meanwhile, it’s Shane McGraw’s role to pass (558 passing yards, 12 TDs and zero interceptions), run (762 rushing yards, 13 TDs) and support defensive efforts (fourth on the team with 139 defensive points, including three sacks and three pass break-ups).

Jarom Davidson, Burlington. Davidson is the only returning all-state selection for last year’s runners-up, and he’ll be a terror on defense. He led the Huskies and was fifth in the state in defensive points last year, racking up 127 total tackles. He was also the Huskies’ top receiver last year.

Four key games

Kaycee at Burlington, Sept. 7. Both programs have had recent success — Kaycee with three straight titles from 2015-17, Burlington with a runner-up finish last season. But neither is in the early talk for state title contenders. That could change with a statement victory against the other on opening weekend.

Farson at Snake River, Oct. 12. This Saturday matchup between the Pronghorns and Rattlers in Baggs might determine the West’s No. 1 seed. On paper, they’re the two best teams entering 2019, which means something will have to give.

Burlington at Farson, Oct. 18. The rematch of last year’s state championship game comes in Week 7 in Farson — and both teams will need to win here to keep hopes of a No. 1 seed alive.

Hanna at Guernsey, Oct. 25. Hanna finishes its schedule with its two toughest games — at Kaycee in Week 7 and at Guernsey in Week 8. Whether the Miners muster a postseason push that gets them to Laramie may well depend on whether they can win in Platte County in the regular-season finale.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Hanna, Guernsey, Hulett, Lingle, Kaycee, Saratoga*, NSI, Midwest.

West Conference: Snake River, Farson, Burlington, Meeteetse, Riverside*, St. Stephens, Dubois, Ten Sleep.

*-ineligible for playoffs

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Snake River 54, Hanna 52. On paper, these are the two best teams entering the season. Both teams return a ton of players from competitive teams, and either one could be six-man’s most dominant program in 2019. Call this pick a bias for geography: It’d be fun to see these two Carbon County rivals play each other in the season finale.

Stadium tour and season preview video

What do you think? Is a Hanna-Snake River title game the stuff of legend, or will another team (like, say, the defending state champs from Farson) come along and surprise us all? Leave a comment, or drop a line on Twitter or Facebook.

Next week: Class 1A 11-man preview.

–patrick