The Class 1A 11-man East Conference play-in contest will be Tuesday in Douglas. The coin flip will be at 5 p.m. with the first half starting at 6 p.m.
Pine Bluffs, Lingle and Sundance are playing for two slots in the playoffs. The winner of the play-in will earn the No. 3 seed and go to Riverside to play Basin in the quarterfinals; the second-place team in the play-in earns the No. 4 seed and goes to Cokeville.
–patrick
So much of what happened in Week 8 was based in being unconfirmed or uncertain.
But we know this for sure: Kemmerer wants to keep playing.
How do we know? Well, look at the Rangers’ victory over Mountain View on Friday. Kemmerer won it 28-26, and coupled with a loss by Greybull and a victory by Thermopolis, ensured that the season will extend at least four more days.
That’s when the state’s first triangular playoff since 1999 will be staged between the Rangers, Greybull and Thermopolis, with two playoff spots up for grabs.
We know this much about that game after Friday: Don’t count out the Rangers. Since an embarrassing 42-6 loss to Thermopolis on Sept. 23, Kemmerer has been on a tear, winning three of its past four games (the only loss to top-ranked Lovell), including key victories over Greybull and Mountain View to keep its dwindling playoff hopes alive.
Those hopes are dwindling no more. If anything, Friday’s big victory will allow the Rangers to prove on the field they deserve to be playing postseason football. Really, that’s all any team ever wants.
That’s my ONLY slice of Humble Pie this week. That’s right — only one missed pick for yours truly. It ties my best regular-season showing ever, in seven years of doing picks.
But as I alluded to earlier, uncertainty ruled Week 8 this week in three ways.
First: Ten Sleep beat Hanna, we know that. What is uncertain is the final score. The final was widely reported as 86-55, but was posted to the WHSAA website as 85-66. No big deal, right? Well, it is, actually, since an 85-66 final would set the state record for most combined points in a game (151), while the 86-55 final would not. Late Friday, I also heard the final may have actually been 86-65. Three scores, one game. I mean, let’s be real. I know it was a lot of points, but didn’t anyone keep track correctly? If you know the REAL final, post a comment below or email me at pschmiedt@yahoo.com.
Second: Buffalo beat Rawlins 21-0. Sort of. The game was called off before the first quarter ended due to a power failure in Rawlins. As it is, it really doesn’t matter for playoff seeding, because Lander beat Riverton so Buffalo is the third seed no matter what (and Rawlins is out no matter what). No big deal, right? Well, it is, actually, since Rawlins is approaching the state record for consecutive losses, and Friday’s game was either the school’s 31st loss in a row, or the game was canceled and doesn’t count in the records — and the Outlaws are still sitting on 30.
That’s the difference, I suppose, between being a fan and being the self-appointed state record-keeper. D’oh! For some it’s no big deal; for me it is.
Now, third, onto uncertainty we can all agree upon: Uncertain playoff brackets AFTER the regular season has concluded. That’s just what happened in both the 2A West and 1A East conferences this year. In 2A, it’s aforementioned Kemmerer tying with Greybull and Thermopolis for the third and fourth seeds out of the conference; in 1A, it’s Lingle, Sundance and Pine Bluffs tying for the third and fourth playoff spots.
The triangular playoffs will be the 11th and 12th in state history, but each of the six teams participating can take a little comfort in knowing that two state championship teams emerged from similar playoffs in the past to win it all. (Which two? Well, check back in a couple days to this blog to find out as I give a refresher on the 10 triangular playoffs that have come before.)
Other stuff that caught my eye this week…
Lusk: Five shutouts in a row. My goodness. If the Tigers can get past Saratoga in the first round and Cokeville beats whichever team it ends up facing, the semifinal between these two teams could come down to which team scores first. 6-0 anyone? …
Speaking of shutouts and the 1A East, Pine Bluffs has four victories this season. They’re all by shutout. Basically, if you score against the Hornets, you’re gonna win. …
Most of the Week 8 games were blowouts. Only three games were decided by eight points or fewer: Natrona’s 41-34 victory over Gillette (and that game wasn’t even that close until the final three minutes or so), Lander’s 24-22 victory over Riverton and Kemmerer’s nailbiter over Mountain View. That might be unprecedented. I can’t remember a week with such a lack of close games. …
Five schools — Cheyenne South, Rawlins, Wright, Big Piney and Meeteetse — finished winless. Big Piney, at 0-8, finished with its first winless season since 1969. Rawlins’ losing streak, now at 30/31 games, is still the state’s longest; second is Meeteetse’s 13-game streak. … Conversely, four teams enter the playoffs unbeaten — Natrona, Lovell, Southeast and Snake River. Snake River’s 18-game winning streak is the longest active one in the state, while Natrona is second with 12 victories in a row. …
What caught your eye this week? Anything interesting you see coming down the pike for the playoffs next week? Thoughts on the regular season? Post them in the comments below.
(Clarifications: Buffalo-Rawlins was officially ruled a 21-0 final; Buffalo picks up the victory. Ten Sleep-Hanna final was 86-65.)
This week: 30-1 (97 percent). This season: 223-46 (83 percent).
–patrick
Class 4A
(8) Laramie at (1) Natrona
(5) Evanston at (4) Cheyenne East
(6) Cheyenne Central at (3) Gillette
(7) Rock Springs at (2) Sheridan
Class 3A
(4W) Cody at (1E) Douglas
(3E) Buffalo at (2W) Star Valley
(3W) Powell at (2E) Lander
(4E) Riverton at (1W) Green River
Class 2A
(4W) Greybull/Thermopolis/Kemmerer at (1E) Glenrock
(3E) Big Horn at (2W) Lyman
(3W) Greybull/Thermopolis/Kemmerer at (2E) Newcastle
(4E) Burns at (1W) Lovell
A three-way playoff will be played to determine the third and fourth seeds. Date, time and location TBA, although tentatively scheduled for Tuesday.
Class 1A 11-man
(4W) Shoshoni at (1E) Southeast
(3E) Pine Bluffs/Lingle/Sundance at (2W) Riverside
(3W) Saratoga at (2E) Lusk
(4E) Pine Bluffs/Lingle/Sundance at (1W) Cokeville
A three-way playoff will be played to determine the third and fourth seeds. Date, time and location TBA, although tentatively scheduled for Tuesday.
Class 1A six-man
(4S) Farson at (1N) Dubois
(3N) Ten Sleep at (2S) Midwest
(3S) Hanna at (2N) Kaycee
(4N) Hulett at (1S) Snake River
Official brackets, with game dates and kickoff times, will be posted here once finalized by the WHSAA.
–patrick
With Shoshoni’s victory over Wyoming Indian on Thursday night, the following playoff scenarios exist for the 1A West playoff seeding:
IF Burlington wins and Saratoga loses: Shoshoni is 3 seed, Burlington is 4 seed.
IF Burlington wins and Saratoga wins: Burlington is 3 seed, Saratoga is 4 seed.
IF Burlington loses, Saratoga loses and Wind River loses: Shoshoni is 3 seed, Burlington is 4 seed.
IF Burlington loses, Saratoga loses and Wind River wins: Shoshoni is 3 seed, Wind River is 4 seed.
IF Burlington loses and Saratoga wins: Saratoga is 3 seed, Shoshoni is 4 seed.
The scenarios for each team:
Shoshoni is in, unless Burlington and Saratoga both win.
Saratoga is in with a win, out with a loss.
Burlington is in with a win but can still qualify with a loss if Saratoga and Wind River lose, too.
Wind River only qualifies with a win and losses by both Saratoga and Burlington.
–patrick
Technically, the playoffs start next week.
In reality, for four teams, the playoffs start Friday.
Worland, Cody, Meeteetse and Hulett all play unofficial play-in games in their final games of the regular season. The winner of Worland-Cody earns the No. 4 seed from the Class 3A West Conference and will travel to play Douglas in the first round; the winner of Meeteetse-Hulett earns the fourth seed from the Class 1A six-man North Conference and makes the trip to Baggs to play Snake River in that classification’s quarterfinal round.
Win, you keep playing next week. Lose, you don’t. Just like the playoffs. Simple as that.
Worland has to make the trip to Cody to play the Broncs; the game is scheduled for a 7 p.m. kickoff. Both squads have identical 1-4 conference records, having both beat Jackson, but Worland sports two more victories overall thanks to nonconference victories over Rawlins and Torrington. Cody, meanwhile, is just 1-7 this season after four nonconference losses and an 0-5 start to the season.
In six-man, Meeteetse makes the long trip across the northern half of the state to face Hulett in a 2 p.m. game. The two teams were rivals in the old nine-man league of the early 1990s — the Longhorns beat the Red Devils in the 1993 nine-man championship game — but they haven’t played each other since 1994. Both teams are winless in conference play, but Hulett has experienced the thrill of victory over three South Conference teams while Meeteetse is 0-7.
I’m keeping the picks simple here; I’m going with the home teams, Cody and Hulett.
And, just maybe, the winners of these two games will benefit in a way their first-round opponents can’t: They’ll already understand the feeling of what it really means to play in a playoff atmosphere. After all, that’s what this week basically is for these four teams.
(Cody leads Worland series 38-32-1; Meeteetse-Hulett series is tied 3-3.)
Here are the rest of this week’s picks, with projected winners in bold. If your computer can’t read bold type, you’ll just have to trust me (and you should probably buy a new computer):
Thursday
Class 1A 11-man
Wyoming Indian at Shoshoni: The Wranglers have been swooning a bit as of late — losers of three of four — but they have the added push of wanting to get into the postseason playing in their favor. 6 p.m. (Sho 22-6-1)
Friday
Class 4A
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne Central: KW will probably keep it close and interesting, but the Indians have too much firepower — and too much momentum from three straight solid victories. 6 p.m. (CC 22-15)
Laramie at Evanston: Just like the KW-Central game, this one pits one team trying to make the playoffs against one team that’s already guaranteed its place in the postseason. 7 p.m. (Lar 11-10)
Natrona at Gillette: It’s always — ALWAYS — tough for NC to win in Gillette. Mustangs haven’t won there since 2004. Don’t be surprised to see the Camels pull off the upset in this one, especially since both teams already have playoff seeds secured. I’m still picking NC, though…. 7 p.m. (NC 34-17)
Rock Springs at Cheyenne South: The quickly improving Tigers know if they win, they’re in. 7 p.m. (First meeting)
Sheridan at Cheyenne East: It’s a long trip and the T-Birds are a good team, but Sheridan has been on quite a roll lately. 6 p.m. (She 19-11)
Class 3A
Buffalo at Rawlins: I’ll be honest: When working through playoff scenarios earlier this week, I worked through all the scenarios where Buffalo lost. Then I realized that Buffalo was playing Rawlins and those scenarios were worthless. 6 p.m. (Buf 15-2-1)
Douglas at Torrington: The Bearcats already know their playoff seed, but they don’t want to lose any momentum in the final week of the regular season. 7 p.m. (Tor 54-26-2)
Jackson at Star Valley: How will the Braves respond to a difficult loss last week? That question, plus the rivalry game angle, makes this one a bit more unpredictable than you’d think. 7 p.m. (SV 59-14)
Powell at Green River: Both of these teams are playing at a really high level right now. Both teams are threats to win the state title. Both want home-field advantage in the first two rounds. Game of the week? Try game of the year. 7 p.m. (Pow 5-4)
Riverton at Lander: The Tigers have been one of the most pleasant surprise teams this season. They want to make sure to win the big one, though — the one the folks in Fremont County will be talking about all offseason, no matter what else happens the rest of the year. 6 p.m. (Riv 58-49-7)
Class 2A
Big Horn at Newcastle: This is a big one in terms of playoff positioning. The winner guarantees a home playoff game but, thanks to 2A’s parity, doesn’t guarantee an easier trip to Laramie. Taking the Dogies just because it’s a home game for them. 7 p.m. (BH 2-0)
Burns at Wright: Is there a hotter team in 2A right now than Burns? Other than maybe the Broncs’ first-round playoff opponent, Lovell, maybe not. 7 p.m. (Wri 11-7)
Greybull at Lyman: Oooohhh. Loving this matchup. Both teams would love to win this one to keep the momentum going into the playoffs. 3 p.m. (tied 5-5)
Lovell at Big Piney: These two teams have been experiencing long seasons in 2011 for completely different reasons. 3:30 p.m. (Lov 5-3)
Moorcroft at Glenrock: The Herders’ loss last week may just be the wake-up call they’ve been searching for. They are more dangerous now than ever before. 7 p.m. (Glk 11-7-1)
Mountain View at Kemmerer: Don’t overlook this game on your 2A schedule this week. It won’t mean much next week, but there is a lot of pride on the line and two good teams clashing that want to end the season right. 3 p.m. (MV 17-15)
Thermopolis at Pinedale: The Bobcats know they can’t afford a slip-up here. 7 p.m. (The 4-0)
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Cokeville: The Panthers of 2011 are looking a lot like the Panthers of 2010. And we all know how that turned out. 1 p.m. (Cok 10-1)
Lingle at Southeast: All season, it hasn’t mattered who Southeast lines up against. The Cyclones just win. 6 p.m. (SE 22-10)
Riverside at Wind River: The Cougars need a lot to go their way to make it into the postseason. The most critical is a win here. The problem is they’re playing a Riverside team that has won five in a row. 6 p.m. (Rsd 11-9)
Saratoga at Rocky Mountain: That is a really long trip, but the Panthers know what’s at stake: In every scenario, if Saratoga wins, it’s in the playoffs. 4 p.m. (RM 4-0)
Sundance at Normative Services: The Wolves’ last win came in 2009… over Sundance… in Sheridan… in the final game of the regular season. Tread carefully, Bulldogs. 7 p.m. (tie 1-1)
Upton at Lusk: Is consecutive shutout No. 5 within Lusk’s reach this week? 7 p.m. (Lus 9-5)
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Snake River: Both teams already have their postseason invitations set. That doesn’t mean they won’t take this one seriously. Noon. (SR 4-2)
Hanna at Ten Sleep: This one is an interesting showdown of the two No. 3 seeds in the postseason. It will be fun to see how the middle of the North stacks up against the middle of the South. 1 p.m. (Han 2-0)
Interclass
Wheatland at Natrona JV: The 2011 season sort of spiraled away from the Bulldogs, but a victory here could be enough to point the program in the right direction for 2012. 5 p.m. (NA)
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Guernsey: Since losing to Snake River, the Rams have won five in a row — by an average of 44 points per game. 2 p.m. (Gue 1-0)
Midwest at Kaycee: Speaking of North vs. South, here’s another one. The two No. 2 seeds in six-man face off in the final week of the regular season. Once again, it’ll be interesting here to see how two like seeds from the two conferences match up. 3 p.m. (Kay 3-1)
Open: Pine Bluffs
There it is. Those are my final picks for the 2011 regular season. What do you think? Feel free to post a comment below and we can start talking matchups this week, matchups next week, matchups you want to see in Laramie….
–patrick
Friday’s game between Lyman and Greybull will kick off one hour earlier than scheduled. The game will start at 3 p.m., not 4 p.m. as previously scheduled. The game is in Lyman. Thanks to Lyman coach Ted Holmstrom for the heads up.
–patrick
A couple changes to the site that I need to share:
All-state teams: Two changes were made to the all-state listings. First, the 1975 team has been updated and changed. Formerly, the 1975 team I had listed was the UPI team, not the team from the Wyoming Coaches Association. I choose to list WCA teams when I have both available. I finally got my hands on the WCA list from 1975, thanks to Cheyenne East all-stater Kevin Lepore, and now the 1975 teams listed are the WCA teams. Thaks Kevin!
I also corrected a name on the 1998 Class 4A all-state team. John Rounds’ name has been fixed. Thanks to John for letting me know!
Coaches Project: Updates for Buffalo. Click here to see what I still need for the Coaches Project. Thanks to Buffalo AD Shad Spilski for the help!
–patrick
Come the postseason, your regular season doesn’t matter.
Two schools are grateful for this for two very different reasons.
Burns is grateful its three consecutive losses to start the season are a thing of the past. Glenrock is grateful its loss to Burns — its first loss of the season — can probably remain as just a blip on the radar.
Right now, Burns may be the hottest team (pun not intended) coming out of the 2A East, thanks in part to its 22-14 upset of the previously undefeated Herders on Friday. And even though the Broncs can’t gain anything higher than the No. 4 seed and will have to travel to top-ranked Lovell in the first round of the playoffs, Friday night helped prove the Broncs are up for just such a challenge.
For the Broncs, the start of the season — losses to Lusk, Big Horn and Newcastle in Weeks 1-3 — may have provided more inspiration than desperation. Since then, Burns has won four in a row, none bigger than the victory over Glenrock, a team that came to Burns riding the crest of a six-game winning streak.
For Glenrock, the loss really doesn’t change all that much. With victories over Big Horn and Newcastle, the two teams the Herders are now tied for atop the league standings, Glenrock still controls its own playoff destiny. If the Herders beat Moorcroft at home next week, they are still on line to be the top seed from the East and have all the benefits that come with such a seed.
Burns, though, has all the benefits that come with confidence. Glenrock learned that the hard way on Friday.
Second mad props to Lingle, which knocked off Pine Bluffs 16-13 to make a big mess of things in the 1A East. The Doggers needed this victory to keep any realistic chance of a playoff berth alive. Lingle must have felt that, because the Doggers eked out the victory at home and, in doing so, may have just saved their season. Lingle has to play conference champ Southeast in Week 8, but if the Doggers can keep the momentum moving in the right direction, they may squeeze their way back into postseason play.
Third mad props to Cheyenne East, 21-13 victors over Evanston in a game that secured a first-round home playoff game for the Thunderbirds. Playing at home in the playoffs is a nice luxury to have, and knowing that the team you beat to get there may be your first-round opponent may give East enough of an endge to go deep into the playoff bracket this year. Of course, we all remember what happened to Evanston and East last year, right?
Fourth mad props to Hill City, S.D., which beat Sundance.
As for the rest of the week? I guess the biggest thing that Week 7 gives us is a more accurate picture of what matters in Week 8. I’ve listed the playoff seeding scenarios in the post below this one. Already, 14 teams have been eliminated from postseason consideration and 16 teams already know where they will be seeded for the postseason (prior to the six-man games scheduled for Saturday). Only two top seeds (3A West and 2A East) are not yet certain. That means the biggest moving and shaking will happen in the middle and bottom seeds, especially at the bottom of 4A, the middle of the 3A East and the bottom of the 2A and 1A 11-man West. …
I watched the Snake River-Midwest game on Friday night and came away impressed with both teams — Midwest for keeping it close (game was tied 33-33 at halftime) and Snake River for opening it up in the second half (35 straight points in the third quarter). Snake River’s still the favorite, but teams like Midwest and Dubois are going to make sure the Rattlers work hard for another title. …
The most interesting score of the night: Thermopolis 44, Mountain View 33. I picked Thermop to win, but didn’t see the teams combining for 77 points. …
Another Lusk game, another shutout. That makes it four in a row. …
From the “weird scores” department comes Central’s 11-7 victory over Rock Springs. The only other time in state history that score has been achieved was when Burns beat Lusk by that score in 1990. …
What else caught your attention? Let me know by saying something below.
This week: 27-4 (87 percent). This season: 193-45 (81 percent).
–patrick
Playoff seeding scenarios entering the final week of the regular season:
Class 4A
Natrona: In as No. 1 seed.
Sheridan: In as No. 2 seed.
Gillette: In as No. 3 seed.
Cheyenne East: In as No. 4 seed.
Evanston: In. No. 5 seed with a win OR Cheyenne Central loss. No. 6 seed with a loss AND Cheyenne Central win.
Cheyenne Central: In. No. 5 seed with a win AND Evanston loss. No. 6 seed with a loss OR Evanston win.
Kelly Walsh, Laramie, Rock Springs: The No. 7 and 8 seeds and the first team out. No teams guaranteed in or out.
All three do same thing: If all three win OR all three lose, Rock Springs is No. 7 seed, Laramie is No. 8 seed.
Two of three teams win: If Kelly Walsh and Laramie win and Rock Springs loses, Laramie is N0. 7 seed and KW is No. 8 seed. If Laramie and Rock Springs win and Kelly Walsh loses, Rock Springs is No. 7 seed and Laramie is No. 8 seed. If Kelly Walsh and Rock Springs win and Laramie loses, Kelly Walsh is No. 7 seed and Rock Springs is No. 8 seed.
Two of three teams lose: If Rock Springs wins and Kelly Walsh and Laramie lose, Rock Springs is No. 7 seed and Laramie is No. 8 seed. If Kelly Walsh wins and Laramie and Rock Springs lose, Kelly Walsh is No. 7 seed and Rock Springs is No. 8 seed. If Laramie wins and Kelly Walsh and Rock Springs lose, Laramie is No. 7 seed and Kelly Walsh is No. 8 seed.
Cheyenne South: Out.
Class 3A
East Conference (corrected from earlier post)
Douglas: In as No. 1 seed.
Lander: In. No. 2 seed with win. No. 3 seed with loss AND Buffalo loss. Tie with Buffalo and Riverton for 2-3-4 seeds with loss AND Buffalo win (coin flip to break).
Buffalo: In. No. 3 seed with win AND Lander win. Tie with Riverton and Lander for 2-3-4 seeds with win AND Riverton win (coin flip to break). No. 3 seed with loss AND Riverton loss AND Torrington loss. No. 4 seed with loss AND Riverton loss AND Torrington win. No. 4 seed with loss AND Riverton win.
Riverton: In. No. 2 seed with win AND Buffalo loss. Tie with Buffalo and Lander for 2-3-4 seeds with win AND Buffalo win (coin flip to break). No. 4 seed with loss.
Rawlins/Torrington: Out.
West Conference
Green River: In. No. 1 seed with win. No. 2 seed with loss AND Star Valley loss. Tie with Powell and Star Valley for 1-2-3 seeds with loss AND Star Valley win (coin flip to break).
Powell: In. No. 1 seed with win AND Star Valley loss. Tie with Green River and Star Valley for 1-2-3 seeds with win AND Star Valley win (coin flip to break). No. 3 seed with loss.
Star Valley: In. No. 2 seed with win AND Green River win. Tie with Green River and Powell for 1-2-3 seeds with win AND Green River loss (coin flip to break). No. 2 seed with loss AND Powell loss. No. 3 seed with loss AND Powell win.
Cody and Worland: In with win. Out with loss. They play each other. Winner is No. 4 seed.
Jackson: Out.
Class 2A
East Conference
Glenrock: In. No. 1 seed with win. No. 2 seed with loss.
Newcastle: In. No. 1 seed with win AND Glenrock loss. No. 2 seed with win AND Glenrock win. No. 3 seed with loss.
Big Horn: In. No. 1 seed with win AND Glenrock loss. No. 2 seed with win AND Glenrock win. No. 3 seed with loss.
Burns: In as No. 4 seed.
Moorcroft, Wright, Wheatland: Out.
West Conference
Lovell: In as No. 1 seed.
Lyman: In. No. 2 seed with win. No. 3 seed with loss.
Greybull: Neither in nor out. No. 2 seed with win. No. 3 seed with loss AND Kemmerer loss. No. 4 seed with loss AND Kemmerer win AND Thermopolis loss. Tie with Kemmerer and Thermopolis for 3-4-5 seeds with loss AND Kemmerer win AND Thermopolis win (play-in contest to break). Cannot be eliminated in Week 8 play, only in a play-in contest.
Thermopolis: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with win AND Greybull win OR with win AND Greybull loss AND Kemmerer loss. Tie with Greybull and Kemmerer for 3-4-5 seeds with win AND Kemmerer win AND Greybull loss (play-in contest to break). No. 4 seed with loss AND Kemmerer loss. Eliminated with loss AND Kemmerer win.
Kemmerer: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with win AND Greybull loss AND Thermopolis loss. No. 4 seed with win AND Greybull win AND Thermopolis loss. Eliminated with win AND Greybull win AND Thermopolis win. Eliminated with loss.
Mountain View, Big Piney, Pinedale: Out.
Class 1A
East Conference
Southeast: In as No. 1 seed.
Lusk: In as No. 2 seed.
Lingle: Neither in nor out. No. 3 seed with win OR with loss AND Sundance loss. Tie with Pine Bluffs and Sundance for 3-4-5 seeds with loss AND Sundance win (play-in contest to break). Cannot be eliminated in Week 8 play, only in play-in contest.
Pine Bluffs: Neither in nor out. Has a Week 8 bye. No. 4 seed with Lingle win OR Sundance loss. Tie with Lingle and Sundance for 3-4-5 seeds with Lingle loss AND Sundance win (play-in contest to break). Cannot be eliminated in Week 8 play, only in play-in contest.
Sundance: Neither in nor out. Tie with Pine Bluffs and Lingle for 3-4-5 seeds with win AND Lingle loss (play-in contest to break). Eliminated with loss OR with Lingle victory.
Upton, Normative Services: Out.
West Conference
Cokeville: In as No. 1 seed.
Riverside: In as No. 2 seed.
Burlington/Shoshoni/Saratoga/Wind River: A total of 16 scenarios exist with seven possible outcomes. With Burlington win, Burlington is No. 3 seed UNLESS Saratoga loss AND Shoshoni win; in those cases Shoshoni is 3 seed and Burlington is 4 seed no matter what Wind River does. In all cases where Burlington is No. 3 seed due to a victory, Saratoga is No. 4 seed. Wind River is eliminated in all cases of Burlington victory.
With Burlington loss, things become more complicated. With Burlington loss AND Saratoga win, Saratoga is No. 3 seed and Shoshoni is No. 4 seed in all cases. With Burlington loss AND Saratoga loss AND Shoshoni win, Shoshoni is No. 3 seed and Burlington is No. 4 seed (in case of Wind River loss) OR Wind River is No. 4 seed (in case of Wind River victory). With Burlington loss AND Saratoga loss AND Shoshoni loss AND Wind River win, Wind River is No. 3 seed and Burlington, Saratoga and Shoshoni tie for 4-5-6 seeds (three-team play-in contest to break). With Burlington loss AND Saratoga loss AND Shoshoni loss AND Wind River loss, Burlington, Saratoga and Shoshoni tie for 3-4-5 seeds (three-team play-in contest to break).
Rocky Mountain, Wyoming Indian: Out.
Class 1A six-man
North Conference
Dubois: In as No. 1 seed.
Kaycee: In as No. 2 seed.
Ten Sleep: In as No. 3 seed.
Hulett and Meeteetse: Play each other in Week 8; winner is No. 4 seed, loser is eliminated.
South Conference
Snake River: In as No. 1 seed.
Midwest: In as No. 2 seed.
Hanna: In as No. 3 seed.
Farson: In as No. 4 seed.
Guernsey: Out.
Hopefully this clears up some confusion before we enter the final week of the season….
–patrick
Six-man football was designed for schools like Midwest.
Since winning the Class B title in 1979, success was always limited at the 11-man level for the Oilers; the school’s second and last state championship, in 1991, came at the nine-man level.
Between 1992 and 2007, the Oilers won just 22 percent of their games, going 26-91. The only winning season in that stretch came in 2002, when Midwest finished 4-3 after abandoning its varsity season due to low numbers and playing a hodgepodge schedule of JV squads and Meeteetse. Of those 26 victories, nine came against the junior varsity or sophomore teams from other schools, meaning that in 17 years of play, Midwest beat varsity teams from other schools a grand total of 17 times.
All that changed in 2008, when Midwest adopted six-man football. In the three-plus years that the Oilers have been playing six-man full-time, they have 16 victories against varsity teams from other schools — just one victory short of the total of the previous 17 seasons combined.
In 2008, the Oilers played a makeshift schedule of six-man games and went 5-4, including victories in their final four games of the season. That momentum carried over into 2009, when the state sanctioned six-man football, as Midwest won its first six games of the season and eventually reached the state semifinals.
After a 4-5 season in 2010, Midwest is back on a roll again this season. Since losing to Dubois 49-20 in Week 1, the Oilers have won five games in a row — all by at least 37 points — heading into Friday night’s game with Snake River, which kicks off at 6 p.m. Friday in Midwest.
Therein lies the rub. Six-man football was designed for schools like Snake River, too.
The Rattlers are the defending state champions. They finished 10-0 last year, winning big most of the time and winning the state title game by 55 points. They’re 6-0 this year and have won every game by at least 39 points. That 16-game winning streak is the longest in the state right now. The only time the Rattlers have played the Oilers, the Rattlers won — 68-19 in Baggs in last year’s regular-season finale.
All this from a school that, prior to 2009, last fielded a football team in 1958.
Thus far, Snake River has proven to be the class of six-man football this season. They’ll probably win the state championship in November in Laramie. They’ll probably make it 20 in a row with that victory. They’ll probably win on Friday and wrap up six-man’s South Conference championship in doing so. I’m picking the Rattlers to win Friday.
But that doesn’t change the fact that, for schools like Midwest, Snake River and the other eight schools in the classification, six-man is the right fit. Six-man football was designed for schools like these. Now that they finally have the chance to play it full-time, or play it at all, we can see how true that actually is.
Here are the rest of my Week 7 picks, with projected winners in bold and projected upset-makers in the regular type:
Thursday
Class 4A
Evanston at Cheyenne East: Maybe this is the week Evanston finally wins a close game. 7 p.m. (CE 14-9)
Class 2A
Lyman at Pinedale: The Eagles have been rolling all season long. No reason for that trend to stop now. 6 p.m. (Pin 38-28)
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Rock Springs: I’m really impressed with what Rock Springs did last week. But I’m also really impressed with what Central did last week. 7 p.m. (CC 40-18-4)
Gillette at Cheyenne South: Back-to-back trips to Cheyenne for the Camels. Last one didn’t go too well. This one should be better. 7 p.m. (First meeting)
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan: Sheridan has won five in a row, but the past couple years KW has given Sheridan some trouble, especially in games in Sheridan. 7 p.m. (She 27-21)
Laramie at Natrona: Here’s a number for you: Laramie gave up 35 points last week. Natrona has given up 35 points all season. 7 p.m. (NC 43-34-1)
Class 3A
Cody at Powell: It’s always a donnybrook when these two old rivals meet, but Powell has two advantages: they have a better record so far this season and they’re playing at home. 7 p.m. (Cod 59-47-4)
Douglas at Riverton: The Bearcats can’t overlook the Wolverines, who have been good enough to cause problems for some really strong teams. 7 p.m. (Riv 19-10-1)
Green River at Star Valley: By far the game of the week in 3A this week, this game will have a huge say in determining which team earns the West Conference championship. Both teams are on fire right now and neither one wants to see that momentum slowed. Coin flip. 7 p.m. (SV 32-30-5)
Jackson at Worland: This one is basically a must-win for both squads if they want to maintain any hope of making the playoffs. 6 p.m. (Wor 18-10)
Lander at Rawlins: These Tigers are the real deal. They proved that last week. 7 p.m. (tied 26-26-1)
Torrington at Buffalo: How will the Bison react after last week’s devastating loss? Oh, fine — if they want to go to the playoffs, that is. 6 p.m. (Tor 19-15)
Class 2A
Big Piney at Greybull: The Buffs suffered a tough loss last week. The winless Punchers should provide Greybull a nice confidence booster. 7 p.m. (BP 5-3)
Glenrock at Burns: Burns has experienced a nice turnaround in the second half of the season. Glenrock hasn’t had to turn anything around all season. Advantage Herders. 7 p.m. (Glk 4-1)
Kemmerer at Lovell: The Rangers’ big victory last week doesn’t change the fact that Lovell is Lovell, and Lovell is probably the best team in 2A right now. 6 p.m. (Kem 14-11)
Mountain View at Thermopolis: In the middle of the 2A West, this game is as big as it gets. The winner gets to keep thinking about the postseason; the loser is all but finished after Week 8, barring something really weird. As is tradition, I take the home team when I can’t decide between what looks like two even teams on paper…. 7 p.m. (The 6-5)
Newcastle at Wheatland: Just like Mountain View-Thermopolis, this game may be a make-or-break game in the East. At this point, Wheatland needs this game more desperately than Newcastle does, but desperation treads mighty close to panic sometimes. 7 p.m. (Whe 20-19-2)
Wright at Moorcroft: The Wolves have been quietly improving every week. Now it’s just a matter of putting it all together. 1 p.m. (Wri 15-10)
Class 1A 11-man
Normative Services at Lusk: The only question here is if the Tigers can continue their streak of shutouts to four. 7 p.m. (Lus 2-0)
Pine Bluffs at Lingle: The Doggers could create a big jumble for the third and fourth playoff spots in the East if they can beat the Hornets. I see this game as a toss-up, but I’m picking Pine Bluffs because I really don’t want to spend all the time I’m going to have to spend working on tiebreaker scenarios if Lingle does win this one. 7:30 p.m. (Lin 34-22-2)
Rocky Mountain at Burlington: The Huskies just keep losing the close ones. The law of averages has to catch up with them sometime. 2 p.m. (RM 12-3)
Shoshoni at Saratoga: Call me crazy, but there’s something I like about the Panthers at home in a game that looks like it may be decided by a field goal or extra point or safety. 3 p.m. (Sar 7-4)
Southeast at Upton: Katie bar the door, trouble’s a-comin’ north. The Cyclones just never seem to regress from week to week; they always get better. 7 p.m. (SE 6-1)
Wind River at Cokeville: Speaking of always getting better, let’s not forget Cokeville. The Panthers have outscored their 1A West opponents 240-13. Yikes. 2 p.m. (Cok 14-5)
Wyoming Indian at Riverside: The Rebels have the inside track to a home playoff game and don’t want to blow that chance. 7 p.m. (Rsd 8-1)
Class 1A six-man
Hanna at Farson: This game is all about playoff seeding, even though a win here probably only affects where the winner will go in the first round of the playoffs. 2 p.m. (Han 8-2)
Interstate
Sundance at Hill City, S.D.: The Bulldogs’ mojo was pinched back a bit last week by Lusk, but Sundance should rebound strong in South Dakota. 6:30 p.m. (Sun 11-4)
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey at Meeteetse: A lot of pride is on the line here in a game between two winless teams. 1 p.m. (Met 1-0)
Hulett at Dubois: Hulett has played well in spurts this season; Dubois has played well consistently all season long. 1 p.m. (Hul 2-0)
Kaycee at Ten Sleep: Wanna play your first-round game at home? Or on the road? 2 p.m. (Kay 2-1)
Open: Big Horn.
I have said this a few times on this blog, but every once and a while it bears repeating: I love it when I miss picks. When a team I pick against finds a way to win, I get excited. The most boring sport is one that’s predictable. Being wrong 20-25% of the time is what keeps me interested in Wyoming high school football week after week, year after year.
What do you think? You know how we roll by now. If you have something to say, you should say it below.
–patrick