Don’t compare scores.
Don’t try to establish trends.
Don’t think, mostly.
Class 2A’s competitive but convoluted top half continues to generate results that are, well, a bit unpredictable.
Take this loop for a drive in your logic-mobile: Lovell beats Big Horn 33-27. Cokeville beats Lovell 33-18. Upton-Sundance beats Cokeville 13-6.
So what happens when Big Horn plays Upton-Sundance? You guessed it. Big Horn beats Upton-Sundance 45-7.
Add Lyman to that loop, as the Eagles, ranked No. 1 in 2A last week, couldn’t handle the trip north and lost to Lovell 20-12.
Only one team in each conference has remained unscathed — Mountain View in the West and Tongue River in the East.
We’ll put the conversation about Tongue River aside for the moment and instead focus our attention to the Bridger Valley, where Mountain View faces… Lyman.
And if you think you know how this game might go, you don’t.
Don’t think.
I mean, it’s easy to take a look at Mountain View’s 4-0 record, its 13 total points allowed (including a shutout last week against Thermopolis), its stable offensive production and think, hey, yep, favorites.
And it’s easy to take a look at Lyman’s inevitable bounce-back from a tough road loss (oddly enough, Lyman’s first road game after three at home), the home-field advantage they’ll get in a rivalry game, the results of the last three Bridger Valley rivalry games — all Lyman victories — and think, hey, yep, favorites.
Don’t think.
The way Class 2A’s top teams are duking it out this year, it’s much more likely this game will end up as yet another game that defies the odds, the senses and the understandings of our physical world. It doesn’t have to make sense. Odds are it probably won’t.
Given 2A’s nature this year, we know the result of this game will be confusing. Until it’s played, though, we just can’t yet know in what ways it will surprise and disorient.
I guess that’s the fun of it all.
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Other things I’m watching this week with heightened levels of interest:
Lusk’s two losses have both come against undefeated teams, 4-0 Big Piney and 3-0 Lingle. This week, the Tigers play 3-0 Southeast. Next week, the Tigers play Pine Bluffs, which is 3-0 entering its game this week against Moorcroft. For as good as Lusk has looked, even in losses, style points don’t get teams into the postseason, so don’t be surprised if Lusk feels that urgency and makes this one in Yoder interesting. …
Speaking of the 1A nine-man East, Wright is probably the most talked-about 0-3 team in the state after coming within a minute and a point of beating what was a top-ranked Pine Bluffs team in a 21-20 loss last week. I’m intrigued to see how the Panthers do against another tough conference foe on the road in Lingle this week. …
Another team that’s probably better than its record is Thermopolis, which has brought along its defense significantly from last season. Despite being 1-2, the Bobcats have proven they will be a tough out for everyone this year, and I’m interested in seeing if their offense finds its groove this week against Rich County, Utah. …
Sheridan at 4-0 and Thunder Basin at 3-1 are both in prime position for home-field advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs — that is, if they can beat the other one this week. Class 4A has developed a clear gap this year, with five teams at 4-0 or 3-1, five teams at 1-3 or 0-4, and no one in between. This is the only game this week were two of the teams in the higher tier meet. …
This week’s coin-flip game? Rocky Mountain hosting Shoshoni. It makes sense that it’s been hard to get a read on these teams due to all of the graduation losses both teams had, so at least we get this game where they can figure it out themselves. …
Not that anyone’s counting, but Snake River has now won 24 in a row, the longest winning streak in school history and just on the cusp of top-10 in state history, which starts at 26. Casper Christian comes to Baggs this week. …
St. Stephens has canceled, again, leaving its opponent for the week to scramble, again. This time, Riverside picked up a game with Cody’s JV. Looking ahead, at least two more future opponents of the Eagles have picked up other games.
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Picks. Call me a punk, but I’m feeling lucky. So I’ve selected some teams to win, and I’ve put them in bold. I’ll tally it all up after the week is done. Yes, I have a spreadsheet. You don’t? Weirdo.
Thursday
Class 1A nine-man
Big Piney at Wind River
Interclass
Riverside at Cody JV
Friday
Class 4A
Campbell County at Kelly Walsh
Laramie at Cheyenne Central
Natrona at Cheyenne South
Rock Springs at Cheyenne East
Sheridan at Thunder Basin
Class 3A
Douglas at Worland
Evanston at Star Valley
Green River at Powell
Jackson at Cody
Lander at Buffalo
Rawlins at Riverton
Class 2A
Big Horn at Torrington
Burns at Upton-Sundance
Cokeville at Kemmerer
Lovell at Pinedale
Mountain View at Lyman
Tongue River at Newcastle
Wheatland at Glenrock
Class 1A nine-man
Guernsey at Saratoga
Lusk at Southeast
Moorcroft at Pine Bluffs
Wright at Lingle
Wyoming Indian at Greybull
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Farson
Kaycee at Midwest
Meeteetse at Burlington
Interstate
Thermopolis at Rich County, Utah
Saturday
Class 1A nine-man
Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain
Class 1A six-man
Casper Christian at Snake River
Hanna at Encampment
Hulett at Ten Sleep
For a full schedule including kickoff times, click here. You can click on “Week 4” at the top of the page to take you directly to this week’s schedule.
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Here are the results of my picks from last week and this season:
Last week: 29-5 (85 percent). This season: 100-21 (83 percent).
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What sense-defying result do you see coming in Week 4? Remember, it only counts if you predict before the game, so… Leave a comment here, or hit me up on the Facebook page or on Twitter.
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–patrick