Semifinal playoff picks: A semifinal trend that should have Sheridan worried to face Kelly Walsh

Thirty-five years have gone by since Kelly Walsh made its last trip to a football championship game.

Since then, Sheridan has played in 14 state title games.

History is on the side of the Broncs when the two teams meet Friday in Sheridan in the Class 4A semifinals. However, if history is going to be turned on its axis in 4A, it’s going to be in the semifinals — a round known for its fair share of surprising outcomes.

Make no mistake: A KW victory against Sheridan would be a surprise. The Trojans are having their best season in nearly a decade, entering the semifinals at 7-3. Sheridan, though, is undefeated, 10-0, and trying to win its third consecutive Class 4A title.

If Kelly Walsh can beat Sheridan — and that’s a big if — the Trojans will continue a trend we’ve seen in recent years in Class 4A.

Since 2011 in the 4A brackets, of the 12 semifinal games, five of the victors (42 percent) have been lower seeds: Natrona beat Gillette in last year’s semis in Gillette; in 2014, it was Gillette beating Cheyenne East in Cheyenne; in 2013, East beat Sheridan in Sheridan while Natrona beat Gillette in Gillette; in 2011, East beat Natrona in Casper.

The rate of 4A upsets is higher than 3A, 1A 11-man (both four of 12) and 1A six-man (no lower-seed victories in the semis since 2010). And it’s equal to 2A’s semifinal lower-seed success rate.

Even so, the 4A championships since 2011 have tended to follow the scripts set for them, with Sheridan’s victory against Gillette in 2015 the only time (17 percent) a lower seed beat a higher seed for the championship.

So if we’re going to see an upset in the big-school ranks, it will likely be this Friday.

That should please the Trojans — and scare the Broncs.

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Aside from Kelly Walsh’s 35-year championship game gap, the next-longest title-game drought for any team in the semifinals belongs to Torrington, where it’s been 20 years since a championship-game appearance.

For Big Piney, it’s been 10 years. For the 17 other teams in the semifinals, though, every single one has been to at least one title game in the past decade.

Speaking of the Punchers, they broke a long semifinal-less streak with their victory against Newcastle last week. Big Piney is in the semis for the first time in 10 years.

And aside from Kelly Walsh, which is in the semis for the first time since 2009, and Burlington, which is making its first semis appearance since 2012, every other team every other class has been to the semis at least once since 2014.

Sheridan, in fact, is in the semis for the 10th consecutive year. With Gillette failing to reach the semis and ending its run of quarterfinal victories at 12, Sheridan’s semis streak is now the longest active such streak in the state.

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On to the picks, where I’m trying to forecast into the future even though it’s quite impossible to do so:

Class 4A
(4) Kelly Walsh at (1) Sheridan: Aside from the 37-34 nail-biter Sheridan had against Natrona, Kelly Walsh actually gave Sheridan its second-biggest scare of the season. Even so, that was still 30-7 in Week 4. The Trojans won’t go down without a fight, but the Broncs haven’t gone down all season. (First playoff meeting since 2012 4A quarterfinals.)
(3) Cheyenne East at (2) Natrona: These two squads hung close back in Week 4, with Natrona winning 14-7 in Casper. The rematch is in Casper, too, and the Mustangs — thanks to that game more than a month ago — may have the mental edge. (First playoff meeting since 2013 4A championship.)
Class 3A
(2W) Green River at (1E) Torrington: A year ago, Green River went to Torrington in the quarterfinals and knocked off the Trailblazers on their home field. I’m positive the ‘Blazers remember — and want some revenge. (Rematch of a 2016 3A quarterfinal, obviously.)
(3W) Cody at (1W) Star Valley: The only team to stay within 10 points of Star Valley all season was Cody. Granted, that game was in Cody, and the rematch is in Afton, so the Braves still have the advantage. But the Broncs should feel confident. (First playoff meeting since 2014 3A semifinals.)
Class 2A
(2W) Big Piney at (1E) Glenrock: This is the sixth time Glenrock and Big Piney are playing against each other. The previous five games have all been playoff semifinals. Weird. The home team has had the advantage in the previous matchups, winning four of those five. So, Herders. (First playoff meeting since 2006 3A semifinals.)
(2E) Wheatland at (1W) Mountain View: Wheatland’s 5-4 record is deceiving — three of those losses came to 3A teams. They’ll push the Buffalos hard and may even pull off a road upset. Still, Mountain View, at home, is the favorite. (First postseason meeting.)
Class 1A 11-man
(2E) Big Horn at (1W) Cokeville: Back in August, I picked this matchup to be for the state championship. As it worked out, it will be a hard-fought, well-contested game in the semifinals. Either team could win, but I’ll pick the undefeated, senior-laden team at home, knowing full well this may be the best game of the week — or of the season. (First playoff meeting since 1988 1A championship.)
(3E) Upton-Sundance at (1E) Pine Bluffs: Two weeks ago, on the same field and with relatively the same kickoff time, the Hornets doubled up the Patriots 28-14. U-S will make the defending champs earn their spot back in Laramie; a couple mistakes either way could tilt this one. (Rematch of a 2016 1A 11-man semifinal.)
Class 1A six-man
(2W) Burlington at (1E) Kaycee: Burlington has been on quite a roll lately, winning seven straight coming into this game. Whether the Huskies can actually stay with Kaycee (winners of 28 straight, on their way to being listed as one of Wyoming’s best six-man teams ever) remains to be seen. (Rematch of a 2016 1A six-man quarterfinal.)
(3W) Snake River at (1W) Farson: Two weeks ago, the Pronghorns went to backs and came back smarting from a 53-18 loss. This time around, Farson gets to host. And I guarantee it’ll be closer than 53-18. Even so, the Rattlers should be confident after manhandling the Pronghorns just 14 days prior. (First playoff meeting since 2010 1A six-man quarterfinals.)

For a full schedule including kickoff times, check out the 2017 schedule and results page.

Last week was the first time I’ve ever gone perfect in the quarterfinals in 13 years of picking quarterfinals, so I guess 13 was my lucky year or something. Here’s how I’m doing:

Last week: 20-0 (100 percent). This season: 249-41 (86 percent).

We’re a week away from the championships. Arguably, the week of the semifinals has historically been more exciting than the week of the championships. So who’s ready to pull an upset and reach Laramie? Post your thoughts, because I’d love to hear them.

–patrick