By the end of the night on Friday, only one Class 4A team will remain undefeated.
We know that because Sheridan and Rock Springs, the last two undefeated 4A teams, will play each other Friday night in Rock Springs.
But we also didn’t expect this a week ago.
A week ago, the Broncs and Tigers were among four undefeated teams. Then something happened we haven’t seen much of in Class 4A in half a decade: the unexpected. Winless Kelly Walsh smoked undefeated Cheyenne South and one-win Natrona went on the road and beat undefeated Gillette.
All of a sudden, four became two. This week, two gets whittled down to one.
That one remaining team, all of a sudden, becomes the favorite for the Class 4A title.
The parity 4A has shown has been a remarkable break from the past. As I mentioned earlier this year, since 2011, Gillette, Cheyenne East, Natrona and Sheridan have been a combined 136-4 against the other six teams in the classification.
So far this year, those “big four” programs are 7-3 against the other six — nearly as many losses through four weeks as through the past five years.
The kinds of things we’re seeing in 4A this year are things we haven’t seen in years. However, the idea that any team can beat any other team in the 4A classification is actually more typical than the “big four” patterns of the past few years.
In short, 2016’s unexpected nature isn’t the anomaly; the consistency from 2011 to 2015 was.
So when the Broncs and Tigers meet on Friday, anything is possible.
It’s nice to be able to say that again — especially if you’re from Rock Springs, or Evanston, or Cheyenne South, or Kelly Walsh, or Cheyenne Central, or Laramie.
Other games I’m watching closely this week: Staying in 4A, as noted, Gillette and Cheyenne South were both undefeated entering last week. They both suffered losses to teams with losing records. It only makes sense to have them play each other this week, so that’s what will happen — and I’m curious to see who responds to their loss better. … Cheyenne Central-Laramie is under the radar, but it could be the best game of the week regardless of class. … Conference play starts in 3A this week. Plan on at least one upset, because 3A. … Mountain View might be the team with the best chance of chasing down Greybull in the 2A West. But first, the Buffalos will have to survive a long, tough road trip to Lovell. … Pinedale-Lyman might be for a playoff spot by the time it’s all said and done. … The 1A 11-man East schedule is stacked this week. Pine Bluffs heads north to face Upton-Sundance, while Tongue River goes south to face Southeast. Together, those four teams are a combined 12-1 this season. Honestly, any combination of teams could win and I wouldn’t bat an eye. … Rocky Mountain has never beaten Cokeville; the Grizzlies are 0-11 all-time against the Panthers, the most one-sided series that will be played this season in any classification. However, the Grizzlies have a chance this week to break that streak once and for all — but they’ll have to do it in Cokeville. … This week’s slate of six-man games is pretty meh, but the Lingle-Midwest game in Casper could be a nail-biter.
The picks for this week are below. By now, I hope you know how this works: projected winners in bold. For a full season schedule with kickoff times, click here.
Thursday
Class 1A 11-man
Shoshoni at Wind River
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Laramie
Evanston at Natrona
Gillette at Cheyenne South
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne East
Sheridan at Rock Springs
Class 3A
Buffalo at Rawlins
Cody at Star Valley
Douglas at Lander
Jackson at Worland
Powell at Green River
Torrington at Riverton
Class 2A
Glenrock at Wheatland
Greybull at Burns
Kemmerer at Big Piney
Mountain View at Lovell
Newcastle at Big Horn
Pinedale at Lyman
Thermopolis at Moorcroft
Class 1A 11-man
Pine Bluffs at Upton-Sundance
Rocky Mountain at Cokeville
Saratoga at Wyoming Indian
Tongue River at Southeast
Wright at Lusk
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey-Sunrise at Normative Services
Hanna at Rock River
Lingle vs. Midwest (at Casper)
Riverside at Meeteetse
St. Stephens at Burlington
Ten Sleep at Farson
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Kaycee at Hulett
Snake River at Dubois
Meanwhile, I had an almost perfectly average week with my picks last week. Thanks, 4A parity… thanks a lot. 🙂
Last week: 25-7 (78 percent). This season: 86-23 (79 percent).
How about YOU? Who’s poised to pull an upset this week and bring parity to its own classification? Leave a comment and let’s talk week 4! (Already the halfway point of the regular season…)
–patrick