What makes this weekend’s games unique is the venue. War Memorial Stadium will host every championship game for the first time, which makes this year’s teams sort of like the guinea pigs. However, don’t think that just because they’re the first that somehow this is just some wild experimental year where the matchups don’t matter… quite the opposite, in fact. This year’s title games look to be some of the most even, unpredictable title games in recent memory. That alone should prompt you to get on down to Laramie and check these games out.
Anyway, here are the games, and my picks:
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central (9-2) vs. Sheridan (10-1)
Any previous meetings? Sheridan beat Central 28-20 on Oct. 16 in Sheridan.
Any common opponents? Eight… Natrona (Central beat 21-19, Sheridan beat 35-28 and 41-17); Rock Springs (Central beat 52-0, Sheridan beat 20-17); Evanston (Central beat 30-14, Sheridan beat 46-21); Laramie (Central beat 36-0 and 44-14, Sheridan beat 27-7); Cheyenne East (Central lost 21-14, Sheridan beat 56-21); Gillette (Central beat 48-14 and 27-10, Sheridan beat 23-14); Green River (Central beat 32-25, Sheridan beat 34-21); Kelly Walsh (Central beat 38-14, Sheridan lost 42-20 and beat 9-7).
Recently? Since losing to Sheridan in Week 7, the Indians have won three in a row and haven’t given up any more than 14 points in any of those games. … Sheridan’s only loss came in Week 0; since then, the Broncs have won 10 in a row, proving they can win both shootouts and defensive struggles.
The pick? Central. I’ll take the Indians because I think they’re playing incredibly well right now and are as strong as they’ve been all season. The defense has been outstanding and the offense has multiple weapons. It won’t be by much, but I think the Indians are playing well enough right now to turn around the result from Oct. 16.
Why I could be wrong: All the reasons I outlined above also describe Sheridan… playing well, strong defense and multiple weapons on offense. This should be a GREAT game and I really think this game is as close to 50-50 as any of the five championship games. Truly an exercise in parity.
Class 3A
Douglas (11-0) vs. Cody (8-3)
Any previous meetings? None since at least 1951.
Any common opponents? Seven. Rawlins (Cody beat 72-8, Douglas beat 76-14); Torrington (Cody lost 12-10 and beat 19-6, Douglas beat 57-12); Lander (Cody beat 20-12, Douglas beat 40-6); Star Valley (Cody lost 13-0, Douglas beat 42-0); Jackson (Cody beat 32-6; Douglas beat 65-0); Buffalo (Cody beat 32-14, Douglas beat 35-6); Worland (Cody beat 20-17, Douglas beat 56-14).
Recently? Cody, since losing 13-0 to Star Valley in Week 6, has won four in a row — and its biggest victory in that stretch came in last week’s 32-14 victory over Buffalo in the semifinals. Douglas has been unstoppable all season. How else do you describe a team with a 515-81 scoring advantage?
The pick? Douglas. The Bearcats have been the clear-cut favorites to win it all since, oh, about 3 p.m. on Nov. 15, 2008… and they have yet to give anyone a reason to doubt that choice. Cody will be game, but Douglas is full of gamers.
Why I could be wrong: Because weird stuff might happen in Laramie. Having the chance is the final step before winning it all, and it’s a step Cody has taken. The Broncs aren’t here by accident.
Class 2A
Thermopolis (9-1) vs. Glenrock (10-0)
Any previous meetings? Glenrock beat Thermopolis 32-26 on Sept. 18 in Thermopolis.
Any common opponents? Seven. Kemmerer (Glenrock beat 26-6, Thermopolis beat 33-13); Tongue River (Glenrock beat 45-26, Thermopolis beat 47-20); Wright (Glenrock beat 45-13; Thermopolis beat 22-19); Big Horn (Glenrock beat 48-27, Thermopolis beat 13-6); Moorcroft (Glenrock beat 48-6; Thermopolis beat 37-22); Newcastle (Glenrock beat 37-12, Thermopolis beat 42-28); Burns (Glenrock beat 49-13; Thermopolis beat 38-14).
Recently? Glenrock has played consistently on offense, but has really turned up the defensive pressure in the second half of the season — of the Herders’ 143 points allowed in 2009, only 46 of those were scored against them in the second half of the season. Thermopolis, too, has played better in the second half of the season than in the first; after winning squeakers over Wright and Big Horn and losing to Glenrock in the first half, the Bobcats have won their last five games by fairly healthy margins.
The pick? Glenrock. Although not as dominant as last year’s team — or even the 2007 team, the argument could be made — the Herders have a ton of big-game experience and still have enough capable athletes to get the job done.
Why I could be wrong: Because the game is in Laramie, not Glenrock. The Herd’s style of play works much better on lined mud, which is basically what the Glenrock field is like by this time of the year; the Bobcats’ style will be much better suited for the artificial turf. And in a game that will likely be decided by a touchdown or less, the Bobcats’ ability to execute on offense will be a key factor in their success.
Class 1A 11-man
Lingle (9-1) vs. Southeast (9-1)
Any previous meetings? Southeast beat Lingle 27-11 on Oct. 23 in Yoder.
Any common opponents? Six. Sundance (Southeast beat 45-6, Lingle beat 46-0); Upton (Southeast beat 68-0; Lingle beat 62-7); Lusk (Southeast lost 24-6, Lingle beat 49-20); Hulett (Southeast beat 6-0, Lingle beat 41-7); Pine Bluffs (Southeast beat 36-16, Lingle beat 42-0); Normative Services (Southeast beat 67-8, Lingle beat 65-14).
Recently? Since losing to Lusk in Week 3, the Cyclones have been nothing short of dominant, notching three shutouts and winning five of their last seven games by at least 20 points. Lingle, meanwhile, appears to have shaken off its one loss — to the Cyclones in Week 8 — and won its two playoff games by a combined 74-27.
The pick? Southeast. I think both teams have what it takes to win this game, so this is a really hard pick to make. I’ve rolled it around in my head all week and I can’t come up with any convincing reasons why one of these teams is better than the other. The reasoning I keep falling back on is twofold: Southeast has more postseason experience than Lingle, and Southeast beat Lingle pretty handily just three weeks ago. That’s why I go with the Cyclones.
Why I could be wrong: Because Lingle’s lack of postseason experience may not be as big a deal as I think (see, for example, last week, and a huge come-from-behind victory in Cokeville), and because I’m positive the Doggers took away lessons from that loss three weeks ago — lessons they’ll get to apply on Friday.
Class 1A 6-man
Kaycee (6-3) vs. Guernsey (8-0)
Any previous meetings? Guernsey beat Kaycee 67-0 on Oct. 24 in Guernsey.
Any common opponents? Four. Natrona frosh/sophs (Kaycee beat 55-33, Guernsey beat 59-19); Ten Sleep (Kaycee beat 71-67 and 48-43, Guernsey beat 89-37); Midwest (Kaycee lost 42-29 and beat 58-56, Guernsey beat 63-20); Hanna (Kaycee lost 55-36; Guernsey beat 72-12 and 46-34).
Recently? Guernsey has been dominant all season but showed a crack in the veneer in the semifinals, as the Vikings needed a big second half to squeeze past Hanna 46-34. Kaycee needed more than just skill to make it to Laramie — the Buckaroos won their first two playoff games by a combined seven points — but proved they knew how to win the close ones in the process.
The pick? Guernsey. The score from three weeks ago speaks volumes. It’ll be closer this time around, but the Vikings got the scare they probably needed last week and should have their heads on straight for this one.
Why I could be wrong: Hanna gave Guernsey a game last week, and Kaycee matches up pretty comparably to Hanna. If the Buckaroos can avoid turnovers… and create some… and get a couple big plays on special teams… and capitalize on the state championship atmosphere… you might be surprised. A 67-point difference could get reduced down in a hurry if all those conditions are met — but only if all those conditions are met.
There. The last picks of the season for the last games of the season. Whatcha think? Dead on or dead wrong? Post your thoughts below and let me know what you think will happen in Laramie this weekend.
I’ll see you there.
–patrick
I told you I would go against your Glenrock pick and I’m doing just that. I haven’t followed 2A very closely, but looking back through scores it seems that Glenrock is vulnerable against the pass. Seeing as how no one in the division throws the ball better than Thermopolis I think Glenrock is going to have their hands full. Not to mention, it’s always difficult to beat a team twice in the same season. Seeing as how the first game was so close, I think Thermopolis makes up the difference and gets it done on Friday. Aside from that game, I’m going with Sheridan, Douglas, Lingle, and Guernsey.
Karl,
I said the Central-Sheridan game was about 50-50 (OK, about 51-49 Central…) but I think the Glenrock-Thermopolis game is pretty close to about 55-45. That means about 45 percent of the time, Thermopolis wins, and about 55 Glenrock wins it. I’ll leave the math to you…. 🙂 but I still think it’ll be a close one, and if Thermop wins it will be without surprise.
–patrick
Patrick,
If you’re saying the Glenrock-Thermopolis game is 55-45, where would you put the Southeast-Lingle game? 60-40? That game will be very intriguing. I think the Lingle wins for the same reason Thermopolis does; it’s hard to beat a good team twice (even if you are a good team). And looking at the box score, it seems special teams were a big difference in the last Southeast-Lingle game. I think Lingle gets a grip on that and comes out on top.
I’d give Southeast about the same chance as Glenrock… 55-45. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Lingle win that one, especially if its offense has more success and keeps the ball from touching the ground.
Looking forward to Friday…
–patrick
Patrick,
The only game that I’d dissagree with you on is the Sheridan/Central game. Sheirdan will come in prepared and win a close one. The rest of the games I honestly think are fairly cut and dry. Shouldn’t be any shockers here.
Well, we were both 50% on the day. Not bad and you were right, if those games were played multiple times, you could never predict who was going to win. Guess tomorrow is our tiebreaker!
Both of the games today were fantastic… Southeast-Lingle really could have gone any way and if the field was a bit drier, you might have seen a different game. As for Glenrock-Thermopolis, the Bobcats’ defense was really impressive and came up big with a pair of fourth-quarter stops on conversion tries.
Looking forward to tomorrow….
–patrick