Semifinal playoff picks

As I examined the brackets for the semifinal pairings this week, I couldn’t stop shaking my head.

This has to be one of the most interesting semifinal rounds in recent memory. All 20 teams deserve to be here — none of them “snuck” their way here. They’re all solid programs, and any one of the 20 are viable threats to win state championships.

The parity in nearly each division is astounding.

In Class 4A, Kelly Walsh at 6-4 has the worst record of any of the four teams. The Trojans play top-seeded Sheridan in the semifinals — yet it was Kelly Walsh that gave Sheridan its only loss this season, and that was by 22 points.

Although 3A looks like Douglas’ classification to lose, the other three teams in the bracket — Worland, Cody and Buffalo — have all proven themselves capable of at least making the Bearcats work for the victory, even capable of pulling off the upset. No team is safe, even Douglas, and every team is legit.

The 2A classification finally has something other than Glenrock and Kemmerer, even though Glenrock and Kemmerer are still the odds-on favorites to face off in Laramie. Greybull, at 9-1, played its first home playoff game in 20 years last week and travels to Glenrock; Thermopolis, at 8-1, has only lost to Glenrock (and that was only by six) and has since won five in a row and will head to Kemmerer.

Meanwhile, the 1A 11-man division has more parity than them all. Cokeville (9-0), Southeast (8-1), Wind River (8-1) and Lingle (8-1) are all, in the words of Mitch Hedberg, “potential lunch winners.” All of them have what it takes to win a state title, which makes the bracket extremely intriguing — and unpredictable.

The 1A six-man division is clearly not quite as dramatic. Undefeated Guernsey is the clear favorite, but nothing is a given in the playoffs. That’s what Hanna, Kaycee and Midwest are all banking on: hope.

Anyway, here are my semifinal picks, with potential lunch winners in bold:

Class 4A
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan: Even though the Trojans match up well with the Broncs — and even though KW gave Sheridan its only loss of the season in Week 0 — I think Sheridan is playing too well right now to be derailed. Turnovers really hurt Sheridan in the first matchup, and I don’t see those troubles happening again. But KW will keep it close and is probably only one or two big plays away from a trip to Laramie itself. Call it 34-28 Broncs. 6 p.m. (Last meeting: Kelly Walsh beat Sheridan 42-20 on Aug. 28 in Sheridan.)
Gillette at Cheyenne Central: The way the Indians beat the Camels a month ago wasn’t a fluke. Central is that good. But they also caught Gillette playing what was probably its worst game of the year. The Camels are improved and won’t get blown out in this game. They have the talent and the skill to make this one close and interesting. Call it 24-20 Indians. 7 p.m. (Last meeting: Central beat Gillette 48-14 on Oct. 2 in Cheyenne.)

Class 3A
Buffalo at Cody: It’s been really hard to get a feel for this game. Both teams have proven they can be successful, but neither team has exhibited the type of dominance you think about when you think of state championship contenders. If anything, I think this game will be close, hard-fought, low-scoring and probably won by a key play on defense — something that either sets up a short touchdown drive or turns into points on its own. Call it 13-10 Broncs. 6 p.m. (Last meeting: Buffalo beat Cody 23-0 on Nov. 7, 2008, in Cody.)
Worland at Douglas: In short, no team in 3A has been close to catching Douglas this fall. For as good as Worland is — and don’t get me wrong, Worland deserves to be here and is good enough to give Douglas a challenge — the Warriors just can’t match up with the Bearcats. No team in 3A can. Worland will keep it interesting, though. Call it 27-14 Bearcats. 7 p.m. (Last meeting: Douglas beat Worland 19-8 on Oct. 22, 2004, in Worland.)

Class 2A
Thermopolis at Kemmerer: Both teams have great offenses, but what separates the Rangers from the Bobcats is their defensive prowess. The Rangers have 2A’s best yards-against defense, something that will pay off against Thermopolis’ flashy offense. Call it 34-26 Rangers. 1 p.m. (Last meeting: Kemmerer beat Thermopolis 46-0 on Oct. 17, 2008, in Kemmerer.)
Greybull at Glenrock: Two run-heavy teams will grind it out — and two solid run defenses will try to halt the charge — in an intriguing, old-school semifinal. Don’t plan on a ton of scoring, because both defenses are legit and both offenses will probably turn conservative with a possible trip to Laramie on the line. Call it 20-12 Herders. 7 p.m. (Last meeting: Glenrock beat Greybull 47-13 on Sept. 29, 2006, in Glenrock.)

Class 1A 11-man
Wind River at Southeast: In short, I have no idea what to expect in this one. I really think this one can go either way; no team is the clear favorite here. Statistically, Wind River has the better offense and the better defense in terms of yards gained/allowed, but Southeast has the experience of three consecutive championships and home-field advantage behind them…. and with the mix of intangibles for both sides, don’t be surprised to see it come down to the final drive or even overtime. Call it 18-16 Cyclones. 6 p.m. (Last meeting: First meeting.)
Lingle at Cokeville: The two top rushing offenses in 1A — and two of the three top rushing defenses — meet in what should be a classic semifinal game. Again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team win. They’ve both proven they belong here… but Cokeville, at home, has just a little bit of an advantage, even in the short week. Call it 21-17 Panthers. 1 p.m. Saturday. (Last meeting: Cokeville beat Lingle 39-0 on Oct. 22, 1999, in Cokeville.)

Class 1A 6-man
Hanna at Guernsey: Once again — the only thing that can stop Guernsey is Guernsey. The Vikings have been dominant against every opponent they’ve faced this season. And while Hanna will present some challenges, Guernsey just has too much. Call it 65-25 Vikings. 1 p.m. (Last meeting: Guernsey beat Hanna 72-12 on Sept. 19 in Hanna.)
Kaycee at Midwest: The second time around will be tougher for the Oilers than the first, but I still think they’re up to the challenge. The only worry Midwest might have is that Kaycee got pushed harder in the first round than the Oilers did, so the Buckaroos might be a bit more focused and ready for the postseason atmosphere…. but that probably won’t be enough for Kaycee to pull off the upset. Call it 52-42 Oilers. 6 p.m. (Last meeting: Midwest beat Kaycee 42-29 on Sept. 22 in Kaycee.)

Wow. I just realized I’m calling for the home team semifinal sweep. I know I’m wrong, of course. Several of these road teams have big-time potential. So what do you think? Who will be playing in Laramie next weekend and who will be watching from the stands? Let me know what you think might be coming this week by posting a comment below.

–patrick