Super 25 selection breakdown: Go big and win

Through 2014, the Casper Star-Tribune’s Super 25 squads have had 600 total selections.

As the Super 25 closes in on its 25th anniversary in 2015, and the 25th anniversary team set to be released next week after the state championship games, I figured now would be a good time to break down the player selection and see how often players from each classification are chosen.

When I worked at the Star-Tribune — and was the director of Super 25 selections — for the 2005-08 football seasons, we did not have specific quotas. But at the same time, we worked hard to have a team that represented the totality of the state and its best players.

I looked at schools’ current classifications, not historical classification, and found the Super 25 squad definitely leans heavy to big schools — but not as heavily as you might think.

Current 4A schools: 257 selections, 42.8%
Current 3A schools: 153 selections, 25.5%
Current 2A schools: 115 selections, 19.2%
Current 1A 11-man schools: 65 selections, 10.8%
Current 1A six-man schools: 10 selections, 1.7%

Annually, this means that 4A schools average 10.7 of the 25 selections; 3A gets 6.4; 2A gets 4.8; 1A 11-man gets 2.7 and 1A six-man gets 0.4.

That said, the numbers to show a clear tilt to 4A schools. And that makes sense — the biggest schools, with the most available players, should produce the most Super 25 players.

However, if we add up all the ADMs (enrollment numbers used for classification) and look at each football classification, we can see a different picture emerge:

4A: 14,463 (10 schools) (54.4 percent of total enrollment)
3A: 6805.5 (12 schools) (25.6 percent)
2A: 2935.75 (14 schools) (11 percent)
1A 11-man: 1720.35 (16 schools, including opt-ups and co-ops) (6.5 percent)
1A six-man: 679.5 (13 schools) (2.6 percent)
Total, all football-sponsoring schools: 26,604.1

The easy way to look at this is if the percent of Super 25 selections is lower than the total percent of ADM, that means it’s tougher to be selected from that classification. Reverse it, and it’s easier.

Toughest classifications to gain Super 25 recognition: 4A (54.4 percent of ADM but only 42.8 percent of Super 25 selections); 1A six-man (2.6 percent of ADM but only 1.7 percent of Super 25 selections).

Representative classifications for Super 25 recognition: 3A (25.6 percent of ADM and 25.5 percent of Super 25 players).

Easiest classifications to gain Super 25 recognition: 2A (only 11 percent of ADM but 19.2 percent of Super 25 players); 1A 11-man (only 6.5 percent of ADM but 10.8 percent of Super 25 selections).

++++

Another way to look at Super 25 selections is via the success of the team for which that player plays. It makes sense that teams playing for winning teams are more likely to be recognized as Super 25 players — the best players, the logic goes, play on the best teams.

But being picked Super 25 from a losing team has proven more and more difficult to achieve. Here’s a list of Super 25 players chosen from teams with records below .500; it’s gotten tougher to do over the years:

1991: Three. Pat Fackrell, Evanston (3-5); John Hardee, Douglas (3-5); George Reddicks, Wheatland (3-4).
1992: Three. Eric Baker, Lander (3-5); K.C. Lehr, Big Piney (3-4); Monte Murdock, Natrona (1-7).
1993: Four. Wes Davis, Evanston (4-6); Mike Fackrell, Evanston (4-6); Anthony Gipson, Green River (4-5); David Lundberg, Cheyenne Central (3-5).
1994: One. Shawn Kelley, Cody (3-5).
1995: Three. Mark Curry, Kelly Walsh (3-5); Aaron Milnes, Wheatland (3-5); Dan Olind, Wheatland (3-5).
1996: Six. Joel Christensen, Pinedale (3-5); Quincy Douglass, Cheyenne Central (3-5); Justin Graham, Gillette (4-5); Garth Hamblin, Rock Springs (3-5); Rocky Kirk, Kelly Walsh (2-6); Jason McAfee, Rock Springs (3-5).
1997: Four. Fred Capshaw, Rock Springs (4-5); Jon Dawson, Cheyenne Central (2-6); Kasey Jones, Thermopolis (4-6); Luke Klemke, Douglas (3-5).
1998: Five. Grant Curry, Lingle (3-5); Shane Farella, Sheridan (3-6); Clint Franklin, Powell (3-5); Cody Hostetter, Newcastle (2-5); Craig Suter, Rock Springs (4-5).
1999: Two. Mike Crosland, Kemmerer (1-7); Jeff Martini, Sheridan (4-5).
2000: One. Junior Simpson, Cheyenne Central (4-5).
2001: Two. Craig Despain, Kelly Walsh (3-6); Brady Hollaway, Douglas (3-7).
2002: Two. Joe Killpack, Green River (4-5); Bryce Scanlon, Evanston (0-9).
2003: One. Alex Obrecht, Cheyenne Central (3-6).
2004: Three. Chris Moberly, Kelly Walsh (3-6); Julius Rios, Torrington (3-6); Wes Scanlon, Evanston (2-7).
2005: Two. Dan Bather, Wheatland (3-6); Reece Hall, Sheridan (2-7).
2006: One. Bryan Guthrie, Cheyenne East (5-6).
2007: Three. Braden Benson, Gillette (5-6); Zach Booth, Star Valley (4-7); Drew Rollin, Rock Springs (4-7).
2008: Four. Matt Baker, Lander (4-5); Matt Craft, Riverside (4-5); Grant Geiser, Lovell (4-5); Brad Ramsey, Cheyenne Central (3-6).
2009: None.
2010: One. Ward Anderson, Wheatland (4-5).
2011: One. Terry Jackson, Kelly Walsh (2-7).
2012: None.
2013: One. Tayton Montgomery, Cheyenne Central (4-6).
2014: One. Cooper Mirich, Cheyenne Central (4-6).

In all, 54 of 600 — or 9 percent — of Super 25 selections come from losing teams. Of those, 33 came from 4A schools. Only eight came from 2A or 1A schools as classified at the time.

+++

I’ve been on the other side of this. I know it’s much tougher to choose a Super 25 team than it is to critique it. Really, the first 17 or 18 selections seem pretty easy, but the last seven or eight are brutal. The Super 40, or the Super 50, or the Super 10, would be no easier.

The goal of the Super 25 when I had a say in the squad was the top 25 players, full stop, regardless of the classification of the school or the success of the team.

Usually, though, the best players play for the biggest schools and play on the best teams.

The last 24 years of Super 25 selections reflects that.

–patrick