Semifinal playoff picks: The second time around

I think we’ve been here before.

I think we’ve played this game.

We think we know what’s coming.

And how the title will be claimed.

We’d be right to look back quickly

To deduce what lies ahead.

But circumstances change for all,

When all but the strong have fled.

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The intrigue that normally comes along for a semifinal playoff round has been all but removed from this year’s semis.

Just look at the matchups: All but one game in the Class 4A through Class 1A 11-man brackets is a rematch of a regular-season game. The one that isn’t a rematch, Big Horn-Lovell in Class 2A, is a rematch of a Zero Week scrimmage.

What’s more, of the seven repeat games, five are in the same location as the regular-season game.

If we believe the regular-season results, this weekend will be a dud. All but one of those seven regular-season games was decided by 17 points or more.

Here’s how the regular-season games between this year’s semifinal qualifiers came out, and where this week’s rematch is:

4A: Gillette 24, Natrona 23, OT, in Casper; rematch in Gillette. … Sheridan 42, Cheyenne East 21, in Sheridan; rematch in Sheridan

3A: Powell 35, Cody 0, in Powell; rematch in Powell. … Douglas 34, Star Valley 17, in Douglas; rematch in Douglas.

2A: Big Horn-Lovell, Zero Week scrimmage in Lovell; “rematch” in Lovell. … Mountain View 45, Thermopolis 13, in Thermopolis; rematch in Mountain View.

1A 11-man: Cokeville 42, Southeast 0, in Cokeville; rematch in Cokeville. … Lusk 20, Lingle 0, in Lusk; rematch in Lusk.

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One classification is conspicuous in its absence from the above list: Class 1A six-man.

In six-man, we actually have two playoff games that aren’t regular-season rematches: Guernsey-Sunrise at Meeteetse and Dubois at Midwest.

Thanks to the relatively few number of six-man schools and the numerous cross-conference games, we can get a pretty good gauge on the games themselves and who might win. However, the fact that neither team has played the other this season gives a whole lot more intrigue to this week’s six-man games, intrigue not present in any other classification.

That doesn’t mean these teams don’t know each other. Guernsey-Sunrise and Meeteetse faced each other in last year’s quarterfinals, with Meeteetse escaping with a two-point victory; Dubois and Midwest played in last year’s semifinals, and the Rams won on their way to the state championship.

One of the things I love about the quarterfinals in all classifications is how the cross-bracketing of playoffs gives us some unique matchups. Sometimes that carries over to the semifinals, sometimes it doesn’t. This year, the only place where it did was six-man, and that makes this year’s small-school bracket that much more interesting — especially in a game that can turn so quickly and points can pile up so fast as six-man.

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Now, the picks. As usual, the team I’m picking to win is in bold, and the team that can use my picks as motivation is in regular type:

Friday
Class 4A
(4) Natrona at (1) Gillette: The first game between these two squads was a classic, as the Camels barely slipped by the Mustangs in overtime. But get this: The Camels have won 22 consecutive home playoff games, a streak dating back to a loss in the 1997 title game. Gillette does not lose home playoff games. But if anyone can play with Gillette, it’s NC — the regular season showed us that.
(3) Cheyenne East at (2) Sheridan: Of all the regular-season blowout rematches, I think this is the one with the most potential to swing the other way. East’s worst game of the year came at Sheridan, and Sheridan’s best game of the year just might have been against East. That 42-21 score was accurate for that night, but might not be an accurate reflection of how closely matched these teams really are. The trouble for East is that Sheridan has been efficient all season long, and Don Julian’s teams always seem to play better in the postseason.

Class 3A
(3W) Cody at (1W) Powell: Weird things happen in playoff games, and weird things happen in rivalry games. Put them together? Uh-oh. Powell can’t overlook Cody, even though the Panthers beat the Broncs soundly in the regular season. But the obvious pick is the Panthers and for the continuation of their 25-game winning streak.
(2W) Star Valley at (1E) Douglas: I think everyone had the Bearcats pegged as the preseason East champs. But I’m not sure anyone was ready for the efficiency that Douglas has used to tear through its opponents. One of those victims was the Braves… and unless something unusual happens, Douglas is on track to make it to the title game for the sixth time in eight years.

Class 2A
(2E) Big Horn at (1W) Lovell: Lovell is two things: undefeated and fortunate. Every close game the Bulldogs have been in, they’ve won: 32-26 over Lyman, 22-12 over Mountain View, 28-20 over Greybull, 33-27 over Thermopolis, and 28-18 in fourth-quarter come-from-behind fashion last week against Wheatland. How much good fortune can one team have before it runs out? It’ll be close, but I say the Rams get their revenge for the 2012 semis as the law of averages catches up with Lovell.
(4W) Thermopolis at (2W) Mountain View: I think the Bobcats just want people to keep doubting them. They play their best in those circumstances. Thermop proved it can play with, and beat, anyone last week when it knocked off East top seed Burns. Mountain View will be just as tough. I like the Buffalos in the Bridger Valley, but I think the Bobcats are confident and could make this a close one.

Class 1A 11-man
(2E) Southeast at (1W) Cokeville: I think Southeast is better than it was when it played, and lost 42-0 to, Cokeville early in the regular season. But 42 points better? I’m not so sure. That, and Cokeville has been straight demoralizing teams — since losing in Week 1 to Mountain View, the Panthers have won every game by at least 37 points.
(3E) Lingle at (1E) Lusk: The Tigers beat the Doggers 20-0 a few weeks ago, the second of seven consecutive shutouts by Lusk. Read that again: seven consecutive shutouts. Lusk doesn’t need a shutout to move on to Laramie, but the Tigers’ defense has been playing exceptionally well all season long and that should continue in the semis.

Class 1A six-man
(2E) Guernsey-Sunrise at (1W) Meeteetse: The Vikings have been playing solidly all season long, and they know they can play with the Longhorns. Remember, these two teams met in last year’s quarterfinals and Meeteetse won 50-48. But the top-ranked Longhorns are top-ranked for a reason, and they should make it to a state title game for the first time since 1993, even though I think the Vikings will score their fair share of points.
(2W) Dubois at (1E) Midwest: I may be barred for life from Oiler Field after this pick — going against my hometown Oilers at home in the playoffs. Midwest has the talent and the confidence to win this, but Dubois does too. And where Dubois has the edge is experience: Dubois has beaten Midwest two years in a row in the six-man semifinals to make it to Laramie, and Midwest, despite reaching the semis in 2009, 2011 and 2012, still has yet to make it to Laramie. Nothing would make me happier, though, than to see the Oilers prove me wrong….

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 19-1 (95 percent). This season: 238-49 (83 percent).

A step away from the title game, we can easily overlook just how much the teams that are remaining have overcome to even make it here. A trip to the semifinals is no small feat. The semifinals are never the goal, of course, but only five of the 20 remaining teams will win a championship. Who do you think is on their way to Laramie? Share your thoughts below.

This is a week that needs a theme song. So here’s this:

–patrick