Week 6 picks

The 3A West Conference league season is not quite two weeks old.

But, two weeks ago, if you tried to line up this conference through the first two weeks — picking two teams at 2-0, two at 1-1 and two at 0-2 — would you have been right?

Cody at 2-0, I’ll grant you. The Broncs have been one of the West’s favorites all year and haven’t disappointed in the early going, topping Jackson and Lander to share the early league lead.

But did you have Worland at 2-0? The Warriors have been consistently middle-of-the-pack material since going undefeated on their way to winning the 4A title in 2003… since then, they’ve been winning the games they were supposed to win, losing the ones they were supposed to lose, consistently flirting with .500 only to bow out early in the playoffs.

Losses to Billings Central, Mont., Buffalo and Torrington in the first three weeks of the season gave no indication of what the Warriors were brewing. Now, though, after three consecutive victories, this year looks like something different in Washakie County. A victory over winless Wheatland got the Warriors in the win column. And after shutting out Star Valley two weeks ago, the Warriors beat Lander… in Lander… in the Tigers’ homecoming… and are all of a sudden one of 3A’s most intriguing teams at 2-0 in conference play.

The draw for both teams this week are the 1-1 teams. Get those right, did’ja?

Come on — did you really have Star Valley there? Especially after the Braves lost four of their first five games — and lost them all by shutout? No way.

And did you have Powell there? The Panthers lost to Miles City, Mont., the Big Sky State’s defending Class A champions, in Zero Week, but rattled off four victories in a row before last week. They looked like one of the favorites not only in the conference, but across all of 3A.

Until….

Star Valley’s 29-3 victory over Powell last week was the latest twist to the 3A West, a league consistently noted for its parity year in and year out. All of a sudden, with Worland and Star Valley pulling off pseudo-upsets last week, 2009 looks like a return to the parity that has defined this division for generations.

As fate would have it, the top four teams in the league meet up in Week 6. Star Valley heads to Cody, while Worland heads to Powell; both games kick off at 7 p.m.

It’s gut check time.

And despite the league’s apparent parity — and despite last week’s proof that no team in this league is safe on any Friday — I’ll take the two league leaders to win again. Cody and Worland earn my nods for this week.

We know, though, that nothing can be taken for granted. Not in the 3A West, anyway. Star Valley and Powell have no reason to panic for the same reason that Cody and Worland have no reason to feel comfortable.

Here are the rest of my picks. Projected winners are in bold; projected losers are cranking Pantera to motivate themselves to prove me wrong:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Green River: I had a tough time deciding on this one, but came up with this line of reasoning — the Indians took all their anger out on Gillette last week and don’t have any left for the Wolves. Huh? Whatever. Should be a good game regardless; wouldn’t be surprised to see the Indians win it, even on the road. 6 p.m.
Laramie at Kelly Walsh: The Plainsmen should at least be confident heading to Casper — Laramie beat KW at Harry Geldien Stadium last year. But the loss to Rock Springs looks like it has refocused the Trojans. 7 p.m.
Natrona County at Gillette: This week’s upset special — the Mustangs go to Gillette and win. Why? Because the Mustangs are confident right now. The Camels, after losing 48-14 last week, not so much. Another monkey wrench in the 4A hierarchy. 7 p.m.
Rock Springs at Cheyenne East: Desperation time at Okie Blanchard — the loser has a significantly harder time making the playoffs. 7 p.m.
Sheridan at Evanston: The long trip could translate into a rocky start for the Broncs. It might be close at halftime, but it probably won’t be by the final gun. 7 p.m.
Class 3A
Buffalo at Wheatland: Magic number in this game is five: The Bison have won five in a row against the Bulldogs, and Wheatland is 0-5 this season. Don’t look for either trend to change on Friday. 6 p.m.
Lander at Jackson: This game is critical to the playoff race. The winner keeps pace in the 3A West; the loser will need a ton of help the last two weeks. 7 p.m.
Rawlins at Douglas: The only challenge the Bearcats have this week is avoiding complacency. It’d be easy to put it on cruise control for a couple weeks, but Douglas can’t afford that. 7 p.m.
Torrington at Riverton: Week in and week out, the Trailblazers keep proving they belong near the top of 3A. 7 p.m.
Class 2A
Glenrock at Wright: Can anyone slow down the Herders — other than themselves? 7 p.m.
Lyman at Mountain View: The Bridger Valley Bowl doesn’t quite have the playoff implications that it normally does — but both teams are coming off victories last week, and a loss here would pretty much crush any remaining hope of a postseason berth. 4 p.m.
Moorcroft vs. Big Horn, at Sheridan: How about that 2A East? Six of the eight teams are 2-2 or better in conference play… and this game, between a pair of 2-2 teams, becomes critical in the playoff race because of that. 1 p.m.
Pinedale at Big Piney: How will the Punchers respond to a loss? This is the first week this season that they’ve had to play after losing…. Even though I think Big Piney wins, the intensity of this rivalry should keep the game close. 3 p.m.
Thermopolis at Burns: This game could be the best of them all this week. Burns finally has something clicking on offense and will be dangerous by the playoffs — the type of team no one wants to see at any stage. And with this game at home…. wow. Tough pick. With momentum and home field on their side, I’ll give the Broncs the kiss of death. 7 p.m.
Tongue River at Newcastle: Both teams need a victory here. It might be the best chance for either to avoid a winless season. 7 p.m.
Wyoming Indian at Lovell: The Chiefs have proven they can put up the points. Their problem has been stopping other teams from doing the same. 7 p.m.
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Wind River: The only potential problem for the Cougars here could be a glance to Oct. 16…. but Wind River proved last week that its focus is right where it needs to be. 6 p.m.
Cokeville at Dubois: The only potential problem for the Panthers here could be a glance to Oct. 16…. but Cokeville proved last week that its focus is right where it needs to be. 2 p.m.
Hulett at Southeast: This is a huge one out on the eastern edge. Southeast can basically secure a playoff berth with a victory… but Hulett is good, good enough to give the Cyclones a true challenge and maybe even pull off the upset on the road. Potential game of the week material. 7 p.m.
Lusk at Sundance: What has the last two weeks done to the Tigers? Are they more focused and fired up, or are they more distracted and frustrated? This game against the Bulldogs will be telling. 4 p.m.
Normative Services at Lingle: In a word: Ouch. 7 p.m.
Pine Bluffs at Upton: The Hornets have been a hard team to read this season — but it looks like they’re heading in the right direction at the right time of the season. 7 p.m.
Saratoga at Riverside: Don’t look now, but the Rebels are building a ton of momentum. 7 p.m.
Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain: The Grizzlies’ 41-6 loss to Cokeville last week wasn’t all bad. Rocky will surely learn some lessons from it — as the Wranglers will find out this week. 6 p.m.
Class 1A 6-man
Farson at Midwest: The Oilers are priming for next week’s showdown with Guernsey. There won’t be a letup. 7 p.m.
Meeteetse at Hanna: The East is a beast in six-man this year. 2 p.m.

Saturday
Class 2A
Greybull at Kemmerer: The folks in Kemmerer must have had a ton of foresight in scheduling this game for Saturday. It’s a big one. The lead — and likely the conference championship — in the 2A West is at stake. And, given how much both teams love the running game, it might be over in an hour. Get there early. 3 p.m.
Class 1A 6-man
Guernsey at Snake River: I keep waiting for someone to challenge the Vikings’ supremacy…. Maybe the Rattlers can. Maybe. 3 p.m.
Interclass
Natrona frosh-sophs at Kaycee: Speaking of looking ahead: How about next week, Ten Sleep at Kaycee? Mustangs first, though. 3 p.m.

Ten Sleep is off this week.

And I’m spent. So it’s on you now — what potential upsets, blowouts or thrillers do you see coming this week? Where did my picks go astray? Leave a comment below and let me know what you’re thinking.

–patrick