Once again, I’m posing five questions to consider on the eve of the state semifinals. The matchups look much more even than they did in the quarterfinals (as expected), which makes thinking about the matchups and their implications much more fun. Anyway, my five questions for you:
1. Which road team do you think is most likely to win this weekend? (My answer: Several road teams have good chances to win this week, but one team is more of a favorite than the rest: Thermopolis. The Bobcats were darn impressive last week and already have a road win over Lovell to their credit this year — a game that was 27-0 at halftime.)
2. Which bracket is most likely to see BOTH road teams win? (My answer: The 1A six-man bracket. If you’ve been paying attention, you know anything can happen in the Ten Sleep-Hanna matchup; neither team is the favorite. Meanwhile, any of the three teams that tied for second place (Hanna, Ten Sleep and Kaycee) have what it takes to go to Baggs and give unbeaten Snake River a game — Kaycee maybe even more so than the others because of their previous trip to Baggs, a trip that ended in a loss for the Buckaroos but gave them plenty of reason to be optimistic about this weekend.)
3. Which top seed is likely to have the toughest time winning this weekend? (My answer: Well, aside from previously mentioned Lovell, I think Cody will have the toughest time winning. Buffalo could be playing the best football of any team in the 3A bracket, and as good as I think Cody is, the Broncs will have to bring their A-game to beat the Bison — even with the home-turf advantage.)
4. Which regular-season rematch is the most intriguing game of the postseason? (My answer: Cheyenne East-Sheridan. Which East team will show up? The one that lost five straight or the one that knocked off Evanston last week? Better question: Which Sheridan team will show up? The one that lost to Central in Week 7, the one that beat Natrona in Week 8 or the one that came within about three minutes of losing to Kelly Walsh in the quarterfinals?)
5. If you could attend any of these 20 games, which one would you go to? (My answer: Well, with Midwest out (sigh), I can’t stop looking at the Buffalo-Cody matchup. This game just keeps coming across my mind, like seven or eight times a day. Who’s gonna win? Can Cody’s stellar defense hold up against Buffalo’s varying attack on offense? Can the Broncs’ offense pierce the Bison’s suddenly powerful defense? Will a special teams play swing the momentum for good? Then I realize the kitchen is on fire.)
On to the picks. If you don’t know how this works by now, you should (1) read the blog more and (2) notice that my projected winners are in bold:
Friday
Class 4A
(6) Cheyenne East at (2) Sheridan: What gets overlooked about Sheridan’s performance last week is that the Broncs’ defense only gave up three points. No matter how close the team came to losing, any defense that gives up three points at any stage of the playoffs is one I’m glad to have on my side — and hate to see on the other. 6 p.m.
Class 3A
(2E) Buffalo at (1W) Cody: Sorry, Broncs. Nothin’ personal. I just like Buffalo in a game I see finishing somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-7. But Cody is a proud program and will defend the home turf. Don’t be surprised by anything in this one. 6 p.m.
(3E) Riverton at (1E) Douglas: The Bearcats won’t have it easy in this one. The Wolverines have proven they can play with Douglas and should be brimming with confidence after winning last week. Even so, I’ll pick the Bearcats for consecutive victory No. 30. 7 p.m.
Class 1A 11-man
(3E) Lingle at (1E) Lusk: The Tigers won the first game between these teams 52-12. That’s good enough for me. 6:30 p.m.
Saturday
Class 4A
(4) Gillette at (1) Natrona: The Camels are going to make this one really interesting. Both teams have proven they can put up the points; the defense that makes just two or three stops might be the defense that wins this game. 1 p.m.
Class 2A
(2E) Thermopolis at (1W) Lovell: I’ll be honest — I did not expect the Bobcats to just roll over Lyman so easily last week. Lovell will put up a tough fight, too, but the defending 2A champs are looking really, really good at this point. 1 p.m.
(2W) Greybull at (1E) Big Horn: The Rams won Round 1 against the Buffs back in Week 1. Since then, Big Horn has only gotten better. Greybull has, too, but not quite enough to overcome what might be the hottest team in the state. 1 p.m.
Class 1A 11-man
(2E) Southeast at (1W) Cokeville: I think this is the official changing of the 1A guard — at least for a week until Cokeville faces Lusk in Laramie. That said, you can never, never, NEVER count out a team that has won four consecutive state championships. 1 p.m.
Class 1A six-man
(4) Kaycee at (1) Snake River: If anyone can stop the Rattlers, it’s the Rattlers. As long as Snake River plays its game and protects the football, it should make the trip to Laramie next week. 1 p.m.
(3) Ten Sleep at (2) Hanna: These two teams (plus Kaycee) are so even… I honestly don’t know how to distinguish between them. Coin flip goes to the Miners in a game that may go to the team that converts the most PATs. 1 p.m.
Those are my picks. How about yours? How about my questions — and your answers to them? Post some thoughts below and let’s talk about high school football in the Equality State!
–patrick
Couple of thoughts
I have to agree with your analysis of the Cody-Buffalo match up (by the way I will be there). In all aspects except the outcome. I think Buffalo’s lack of size and depth is going to be a factor in this game. Buffalo’s skills are very good, but we all know it starts up front. Buffalo depends on quickly putting teams away early, if they have to grind it out they will be in trouble just like last year. Buffalo will have a TOUGH time running against a stout Cody D-Line, just like they did against Douglas who is smaller but built on speed. Kessler is going to have to throw 20+ times for 200 yards minimum to beat Cody. On the other side Cody will be able to run the ball, because of the shear size of boy’s up front. Buffalo’s speed isn’t bad but they don’t have consistent speed or the depth to take the punishment.
Cody 18 Buffalo 12
As for the Douglas-Riverton matchup…I don’t see this as even a game. In the first matchup, Riverton’s only touchdown came after a fumbled kick return placed the ball inside the Douglas’ 4 yard line, and a fumbled snap a couple plays later gave Riverton the ball on the 1 yard line, and it took three plays to go 1 yard. After kicking a field goal…Riverton could not move the ball. If anything this game may have woken the sleeping giant, they systematically destroyed a good Star Valley offensive unit. All the talk about Buffalo is a nice sentiment, but Douglas line play and late blooming running game, makes them the team to beat. People seem to forget about, the way Douglas HANDLED Buffalo way back when…and have been in cruise control until the playoffs. This is a team that is actually on the verge of peaking not going the other way. There running game is getting better (Klava now the leading rusher in the state) taking off the pressure on Barker-Melton-Espeland trio and offensive line that has finally started to gel given up one sack three weeks. Sorry Wolverines I have to go with Bearcats on this one.
Douglas 52 Riverton 10
Championship Game
Douglas 28 Cody 13
3ARocks, have fun! Wish I could be there with you! If I was rich and had free time I would drive up to Cody and take this one in. Either way it should be a fantastic game; I don’t hear anyone calling for a blowout, either way. That should shape up to be a great one.
Also, I agree that people tend to forget about Douglas’ manhandling of Buffalo back in September. I’ve been guilty of that. Buffalo’s just been scary good recently and Douglas let a couple teams hang around at the end of the regular season. We’ll see how they do against Riverton….
–patrick
Thanks….By the way great job on the site. I have really enjoyed it especially since wyopreps changed their site.
I appreciate the kind words. Thanks!
–patrick
Good call on that Buffalo-Cody game Patrick. I think Buffalo wins out.
Lovell has improved dramatically since that zero week game. But Thermop is just gonna be too much I am afraid.
But Go Bulldogs!
Now I’m sort of regretting that I didn’t get in the truck and drive to Cody! Sounds like a fantastic game up there. And I could have taken in Lovell-Thermopolis on Saturday. Oh, well. All those winning teams come to me in Laramie next week, so all is well.
–patrick
Looking forward to the Douglas-Buffalo rematch. Douglas came out slow last night, but they are just too deep of a team. Should be a great game in Laramie on Friday.