I did it. I worked out all the playoff possibilities for the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth seeds for the Class 4A playoffs.*
The schedule for Week 8 is Cheyenne Central at Kelly Walsh, Evanston at Rock Springs, Green River at Gillette, Laramie at Cheyenne East, and Natrona at Sheridan. The first four games are the most critical to the 5-8 seeds. Anyway, here is the breakdown for who would take the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth seeds, and who would be eliminated, if certain teams win. There are 17 different possibilities for how the seeds could break down. They are as follows:
| If East Beats Laramie | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Elim |
| RS win, GR win, KW loss | CC | CE | KW | GR | Lar, RS |
| RS win, GR loss, KW loss | CC | RS | CE | KW | Lar, GR |
| RS loss, GR win, KW loss | CC | CE | KW | GR | Lar, RS |
| RS loss, GR loss, KW loss | CC | CE | KW | GR | Lar, RS |
| RS win, GR win, KW win* | KW | CC | RS | CE | Lar, GR |
| RS win, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | RS | CE | Lar, GR |
| RS loss, GR win, KW win | KW | CC | CE | GR | Lar, RS |
| RS loss, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | CE | GR | Lar, RS |
| *-seeding dependent on Sheridan loss to Natrona | |||||
| If Laramie Beats East | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Elim |
| RS win, GR win, KW loss | CC | KW | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
| RS win, GR loss, KW loss | CC | KW | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
| RS loss, GR win, KW loss | CC | KW | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
| RS loss, GR loss, KW loss | CC | KW | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
| RS win, GR win, KW win | KW | CC | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
| RS win, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
| RS loss, GR win, KW win | KW | CC | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
| RS loss, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
In short:
Kelly Walsh is in. The winner of Kelly Walsh-Central is the fifth seed. If Central loses, the Indians are the sixth seed.
If Laramie loses, they’re out. If East loses, they’re out. If Laramie wins and Green River wins, both East and Laramie are out.
The only place where the Sheridan-Natrona outcome has an effect on these seeds is if KW, Rock Springs, Green River and East all win. If Sheridan happens to beat Natrona on top of all that, then it depends on more than I can explain here.
*It should be known that this interpretation of the seeding possibilities contains breaking of four-way ties, something that is not addressed in the WHSAA handbook. In those cases, I took the team with the top record against the other three teams; when doing that resulted in another tie, I looked at the head-to-head winner of those two teams and made that team the winner of the four-way tiebreaker. Then, I went back to the three-way tiebreaker and started at the start of the tiebreaking procedures for the remaining three teams. I hope this interpretation of the tiebreakers matches with what the WHSAA might use if presented with that situation, but again, it’s important to note that this procedure is not specifically addressed in the handbook.
You’re welcome….
–patrick
Does your head hurt, ….. now? Thanks, Patrick. I know you’ve already said “You’re welcome.”
My thinking part definitely hurts. That took way too much concentration. 🙂
–patrick
Hey Patrick, I hope you were at least enjoying some of those college upsets on tv today while you were compiling all of this.
A four-way tie for the final playoff spot? Are you kidding me? I have a bad feeling that coin-tosses will be used for the ultimate tie-breaker. That would be a shame.
Anyone want to bring back the convoluted point system? Ha ha
Chuck — I was “enjoying” Utah’s victory over Wyoming for most of the afternoon. I think that only exacerbated the head-spinning. 🙂
That said, power ratings wouldn’t really work to break ties in 4A because if you all play the same teams in a round-robin, it really doesn’t matter because all the teams with the same records would end up with the same power rating. Irony of ironies. I hope, at least for the players’ sake, we don’t resort to coin flips to sort it all out.
–patrick
Hey Patrick,
There is nothing enjoyable in watching UW this season… so far anyway. I like upsets and seeing “The ‘ol ball coach” get done by Kentucky and the Cornsuckers losing at home to Texas made my Saturday.
I was half-joking when I mentioned the old power-rankings but the idea went through my mind, “what if?” I quickly came to the same conclusion as you. Wouldn’t work when everybody plays each other.
After looking at this week’s schedule, I’ve also come to the conclusion that coin-tosses are out as well. I know there are many variables and I may be way off base but it seems clear-cut to me who is in and out and what the seedings will be. I don’t want to steal your prediction thunder and analysis but I will say that the coaching staffs in Evanston, Central, KW and Laramie are burning the midnight oil this week because in my opinion they have the most to gain with victories. Evanston has the #2 seed riding on their game and the possibility of getting Gillette at home in the semis. The KW/Central winner will probably face a vulnerable and banged-up Sheridan in the first-round of the playoffs. The loser has to go to Gillette 🙁
Coach Knapton in Laramie can earn the “Phoenix Award” for resurrecting his Plainsmen from the ashes of an ugly six game start and into a playoff berth.
I anxiously await your predictions and thoughts.
~Chuck
As I see it—-In a four way tie, RS, GR, Lar, East—Gr and East are out——RS and LAR would have gone 2-1 against the other three, while GR and East went 1-2—I assume thats how they will break the tie. That seems fair to me. I would hope the WHSAA would announce all the tie-breakers before the games Friday.
Hats off to the Plainsmen, GR had them, and to there credit, they battled back. Steve
That’s the way I read it too, Steve. Rock Springs then would earn the 7 seed by having beat Laramie. But, like I said, that’s my best assumption.
–patrick