Week 6 picks

Recently, the state champions of Wyoming’s big-school division have followed an interesting trend — they’ve all lost at least once in the regular season.

Sheridan last year, Gillette in 2008, Cheyenne East in 2007, Gillette again in 2006 and Cheyenne Central in 2005 all won a state championship. None of them did so as part of an undefeated season.

But it wasn’t always that way. In fact, from 1999 to 2004, every single one of the big-school state championships went to an undefeated team (Natrona in 1999 and 2003, Gillette in 2000, Rock Springs in 2001 and 2002 and Green River in 2004).

Then again, it wasn’t always that way. From 1995-99, no big-school champ was undefeated.

“What’s the point?” you ask. Well, this year, there is only one undefeated team remaining in Class 4A, Natrona County. And the Mustangs face one of their biggest obstacles to an undefeated season this Friday, when Gillette rolls into the Oil City for a 7 p.m. kickoff.

If the Mustangs win this one, it’s tough to see them losing at all this year, likely breaking the recent trend.

If the Mustangs lose, though, they’re not in dire straights, as recent history has proven. And even if NC loses, because of that recent history, it might still be possible for the Mustangs to retain the title they’ve earned so far of state championship frontrunner.

That’s the point: This game is big, but it doesn’t make or break anyone’s season.

But in part what makes the showdown between the 6-0 Mustangs and the 5-1 Camels interesting is how special and rare an undefeated season has become in the 4A ranks. As noted, it hasn’t been accomplished since 2004. That makes NC’s run that much more meaningful to the orange and black faithful.

That extra incentive can motivate or petrify.

We’ll see for sure on Friday.

I’ll choose Natrona to win in a close one — but win or lose on Friday, I still think NC is the favorite to win the 4A title in Laramie in November.

Here are the rest of this week’s picks. Projected winners in bold, projected spoilers in normal type:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Rock Springs: East needs to get back to winning this week. If not, this game could make simply qualifying for the playoffs a difficult task for the Thunderbirds. 7 p.m.
Evanston at Sheridan: Ohhhhh…. This one should be fun. Both teams have so many things to like about them. Both teams have proven they can win. Both teams have shown they belong in the discussion of state championship contenders. As usual, I pick the home team in what looks like an even game on paper. 7 p.m.
Green River at Cheyenne Central: Now that the Wolves have a bit of momentum, they could spoil some seasons — like maybe the Indians’. But I still like Central in a dogfight at home. 6 p.m.
Kelly Walsh at Laramie: A victory here should basically assure the Trojans of a playoff spot. And I’m sure they know that, too. 7 p.m.
Class 3A
Cody at Star Valley: While the Broncs’ offense has been impressive, it’s their defense that’s really caught my attention. It’s probably that way in the coaches’ offices in Afton, as well. 7 p.m.
Douglas at Rawlins: You can’t just show up and win. You still gotta do work. Douglas, I’m sure, knows this. 7 p.m.
Jackson at Lander: The Tigers picked up a solid victory last week and could enter into the “home playoff game” discussion with a victory against the struggling Broncs. 7 p.m.
Powell at Worland: I know a lot of the focus out west is on Cody, but Powell keeps picking up some solid victories and is a dangerous team out west, as well. 7 p.m.
Riverton at Torrington: Last week’s loss to Buffalo crushed some of the Wolverines’ momentum — and they want to earn that back tonight on the road in a game that could knock one or the other out of the playoff race. 6 p.m.
Wheatland at Buffalo: I keep thinking about this game. Can’t help it. The safe choice is the Bison at home, but I think the ‘Dogs keep it close. And if it’s close late, anything can happen. Plan on a good one. 6 p.m.
Class 2A
Big Horn at Moorcroft: Let’s just say the Rams have shown more potential than the Wolves. 3 p.m.
Big Piney at Pinedale: Another game I keep rolling over in my head. I still don’t know what to make of either team, and it’s week 6. I don’t know if that says more about me or more about the mysterious nature of the teams in Sublette County. (By the way, by my count, this is the 96th game between these two rivals since 1938. Some history here.) 6 p.m.
Burns at Thermopolis: The Bobcats have to be smarting after last week’s loss, but there’s no time for pouting. The Broncs are confident and have the ability to put Thermopolis on its heels. But I’ll go with Thermop. 7 p.m.
Kemmerer at Greybull: It’s a long trip for the Rangers, a trip that gets even longer when you have to face a team that likes to run the ball straight at you. 6 p.m.
Lovell at Wyoming Indian: The Bulldogs are in great position for a solid run at the playoffs. Of course, they can’t think playoffs until they take care of business for the next three weeks. 6 p.m.
Mountain View at Lyman: The Bridger Valley Bowl is always full of surprises, so you can’t rule anything out. Nevertheless, the Eagles want to maintain that vice grip they have on first place in the 2A West. 4 p.m.
Newcastle at Tongue River: Even though this isn’t a showdown between two top-flight teams, this should be an absolutely fantastic game. And, in the end, a playoff spot may be at stake for one of these teams in this game. 2 p.m.
Wright at Glenrock: I like the way the Panthers have shown some resiliency after a tough start to the season. Keeping that momentum going will be key in what is probably the biggest game of their regular-season schedule. 7 p.m.
Class 1A 11-man
Dubois at Cokeville: Even though Dubois has been winning, Cokeville has been dominating. However, it will be interesting to see if the Rams can give the Panthers the challenge they desperately need. 2 p.m.
Lingle at Normative Services: We know the Doggers can score. Now we need to know if they can stop anyone. 6 p.m.
Riverside at Saratoga: The Panthers are an improving team and may pull off the upset at home, but I still think the Rebels eke out the victory in this one. 3:30 p.m.
Rocky Mountain at Shoshoni: Interesting stat: This season, every time a team has played Cokeville, the week after playing the Panthers, they lose. Will there be any Cokeville hangover for the Grizzlies this week? Probably not. Curse broken! 2:30 p.m.
Sundance at Lusk: The Tigers might get pushed and win a close one. Then again, they might have it wrapped up by halftime. Either way, I think Lusk wins. 7 p.m.
Upton at Pine Bluffs: Two tough losses in a row hasn’t done anything for the Hornets’ confidence, but topping the Bobcats should help Pine gear up for the final couple weeks of the regular season. 5 p.m.
Wind River at Burlington: We’ll see how the Huskies respond after their first conference loss in a game that could be crucial for playoff seeding. 3 p.m.
Class 1A six-man
Meeteetse at Midwest: The Oilers are still trying to earn that home playoff game. 7 p.m.
Snake River at Hanna: The Carbon County rivalry should be a good one — the Rattlers should win but the Miners have their pride, too. 4:30 p.m.
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey-Sunrise at Ten Sleep: Last week’s humbling against Snake River should keep the Pioneers focused. 3 p.m.
Kaycee at Farson: Don’t overlook the Pronghorns, but Kaycee has too many offensive weapons to be held down for long. 3 p.m.
Off: Southeast.

And there it is, Week 6. The best part, of course, is that they actually play these games, and we can end this week’s speculation at about 11 p.m. Friday night. Which teams strike you as ready to win this week? Post a comment below and let me know what you’re thinking.

–patrick