No need for superfluous introductions: Here are some predictions for the 2010 football season.
Class 4A
The overview: It’s not very often that two teams that finished with four combined victories the previous season are the odds-on favorites. But that’s the case this year with Natrona and East. The Mustangs were 2-8 last year and the Thunderbirds 2-7, but both teams relied heavily on underclass players to fill key roles on the varsity. That means this year, seemingly everyone is picking one of these two teams as a preseason Cinderella. And what a fairy-tale story it would be if these two teams could end up playing each other in Laramie in November.
But let’s slow down. There are eight other teams in this classification, including defending champ Sheridan, defending runner-up Central, fast-rising Kelly Walsh, scary Green River and always tough Gillette. Those are teams that finished with winning records last season, and while all five lost some talented players, all five also have enough talent returning to give any team a fight.
The picks: Right now, Cinderella is too pretty to ignore. You can’t deny that, on paper, Natrona and East have the most talented teams. Remember, East beat Central in the Capital Bowl last year, and Natrona lost six of its eight games by seven points or less. Despite the final records, these two teams were close to the top teams in the classification. Look for one of these two teams to turn it all around and win the title in November — and look for the other to come up a few points short. For now, I like East with its dangerous aerial combination of QB Trevon Hinker and WR Jeremiah Hunter.
The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. East; 2. Natrona; 3. Central; 4. Gillette; 5. Sheridan.
Class 3A
The overview: In a word: Douglas. Winners of state titles in 2008 and 2009, the Bearcats are loaded again for 2010. Everyone else is chasing them. That’s really all you need to know. (Although 3A gets all kinds of fun after that, as Buffalo, Cody, Star Valley, Powell, Wheatland and Worland all appear to have the ability to be the team to face Douglas in Laramie in November.)
The picks: With the tradition behind them and the talent in the locker room, Douglas has to be the favorite in 3A. Behind them, teams are lining up for their chance. That’s the tough part about being on top — everyone is gunning for you every time you step on the field. Of course, the Bearcats have taken everyone’s best shot for the past 20 games and haven’t lost yet…. So the question now becomes who Douglas will play in the title game. In August, I can’t help but look to Buffalo; the Bison have some tradition, too, and some talented players return from last year’s semifinal team.
The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Douglas; 2. Buffalo; 3. Cody; 4. Star Valley; 5. Powell.
Class 2A
The overview: For the first time since 1999, a team not named “Big Piney,” “Glenrock” or “Kemmerer” won the state’s third division, as Thermopolis basically came out of nowhere with a wide-open offense (well, as wide open as you can be in 2A) and an underrated but incredibly tough defense to win it all. This year, Thermopolis has its QB back in Mitch Syverson, which helps give the Bobcats an early edge in what is — for the first time in years — a wide-open classification.
That’s not to say that the Bobcats will just walk down to Laramie and win it all again. Thermopolis lost a ton of talented players and needs some of last year’s reserves to step up quickly. If they don’t, several teams — including Greybull, Glenrock and Big Horn — have the capability to knock them off and be this year’s out-of-nowhere team.
The picks: This isn’t as easy as it used to be. For the past few years, all I’ve had to do here is say “Kemmerer vs. Glenrock,” and chances are that I’d be pretty safe. Actually, that’s not a bad pick this year, either, but it’s no certainty, either. I think Thermopolis and Greybull have, on paper, the most talent. I think Glenrock is always tough and always seems to find players to fit its unique offense. I think Big Horn could be incredibly tough to stop. I think Kemmerer is being overlooked. I think Big Piney, Lovell and Wright are all worthy of preseason mention. I think I don’t know who to pick….
For now, let’s say Thermopolis vs. Greybull in the title game. Just let me adjust my picks every week between now and then.
The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Thermopolis; 2. Greybull; 3. Glenrock; 4. Big Horn; 5. Kemmerer.
Class 1A 11-man
The overview: You can’t mention this division without mentioning Southeast. The Cyclones have won four consecutive state championships. But, man, oh, man, will they have a tough time making it five. Cokeville, Lusk and Lingle will make sure of that.
If the boys from Yoder want to make it five straight, they will need to put together their best effort to do so, as this classification is STACKED on the top side. Cokeville has some amazing talent coming back. Lusk has been pointing to 2010 for a long time and is poised for a playoff breakthrough. Lingle has some solid returners on both sides of the ball and now has experience and confidence going for it, too.
The picks: My goodness, the playoffs are going to be fun. For now, I think Cokeville — on paper — has 1A’s most talent, including RB Chance Maddock. I think Southeast has earned the title of perennial favorite. For now, I’ll go with those two teams. But, wow, Lusk and Lingle… how can you NOT like either of those teams to win it all, as well? I can’t wait for the first weekend in November and the semifinals.
The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Cokeville; 2. Southeast; 3. Lusk; 4. Lingle; 5. Ummm….. Burlington? Why not.
Class 1A six-man
The overview: No team will dominate the division the way Guernsey did last fall — and that’s a good thing. Teams like Ten Sleep, Midwest, Kaycee and Hanna all have to be considered in the preseason discussion. As the playoffs proved last year, six-man is anything but predictable, especially with the wide-open play and the loads of talent that seemingly each team carries. With the division moving to a one-conference format for playoff seeding this year, every game in weeks 1-7 will be a conference game, so that should create some interesting matchups in the postseason.
The picks: Although you have to respect Guernsey and what the Vikings accomplished last fall, I also think you have to realize that this division is no longer a one-team show. Kaycee and Ten Sleep, especially, have the talent and athleticism to make a run at the title this fall. I think this classification is the least predictable of them all, as teams are still working to establish their identities, but I also think that makes it fun. Right now, I’ll lean toward another Guernsey-Kaycee title game, with Kaycee winning it this time thanks to an athletic group led by back Shawn Straub.
But don’t be surprised to see some other teams step up and challenge that. And don’t be surprised if the team that wins it all come November has two or three losses along the way. I think there’s that much parity at the top.
The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Kaycee; 2. Guernsey; 3. Ten Sleep; 4. Hanna; 5. Midwest.
So, what do you think? Which teams will still be standing in November? Who are some of the top players? Which teams have the ability to come out of nowhere and win a title? Which favorites will capitalize on their expectations? Leave a comment below and let’s get this discussion started!
–patrick
Patrick,
All your picks are real close to what I would pick except for Lusk. I understand why you picked who you did, but I believe the tigers will be playing in Laramie this fall.
Hi Shane,
I like Lusk a lot. Lusk beat Southeast (and quite handily) in the regular season last year, but lost big to Lingle and in OT to Pine Bluffs… That seemed to be the big problem last year was just finding the right mix every week. If the Tigers can be more consistent, they have what it takes not only to play in Laramie, but to win there. Definitely a team that the rest of 1A needs to be ready for.
–patrick
Patrick, the new ADM numbers are out—-It looks like Green River is headed to 3a football—-the numbers are interesting. If you want them, I can forward them to you. Just e-mail the request. Steve
Steve,
Post them, we all want to see them.
Patrick–Just visited wyopreps and posted my top 5. Greybull-Glenrock-Kemmerer-Thermop-Lovell. After reading yours however I realized I completely overlooked Big Horn and would probably put them in at #5 over Lovell. Can’t wait for season to get going–GO RANGERS!!
Steve – I’m definitely interested in the new Adm figures. Green River in the #11 spot is not a surprise. I know the conversation about 4A football has also included talk of expanding the classification to 11 or 12 teams rather than sending that #11 team to 3A. We’ll see what the WHSAA decides to do…
More thoughts after I get back from my weekend away.
-patrick
I posted some of my thoughts about South’s entry into 4A football last summer. I’m still holding these same ideas today… http://wyoming-football.com/blog/?p=271
–patrick
Regarding the numbers, I think it’s very important, and I’m sure Mr. Core would agree, that capturing the mind set of the kids is extremely important. What I mean is, a bubble school such as Green River and Star Valley, it is much more important to have the athletes believing that they are reaching a goal that is higher and separate than that of merely beating the other schools in the conference, whomever that might be. With talk of moving classifications, that does not mean instant success or failure. Green River strikes me as a sports program that goes out and tries to be as good as they can be. If that’s against Central and Gillette, so be it. If it’s against Powell and Star Valley, the same idea. I think we have gotten way too interested in the numbers that the state uses and how that equates to quality rather than just lining up against whomever is placed across the line from you. Green River, Rock Springs and Evanston were conference foes when I was a kid, and so they are again.
I think the worst thing that could happen to a program is to have a group of kids see a movement in classification as a sure thing one way or the other and forget to continue on their current path. I would only hope that some geographic common sense be used as much as possible and a longer term stance also be used so that this isn’t a constant two-year tap dance for some of the programs.
That being said, here’s my 3A predictions for football this season.
I am still impressed with the overall number of skill position kids that Buffalo brings back so I’m picking them first although Douglas does have such a long winning streak. I think the Braves are third with Cody and Powell rounding out the top five. Cody has some explosive kids coming back, but I’m not sold on replacing Frost yet behind the center. As for Powell, they have a lot coming back and if they gel, they seem to have all the tools to make a deep run in the postseason, but the way the season fell apart for them last year is a concern. Just so I’m not too much of a homer, the Braves’ biggest concern is consistency on offense. They have the most talent of any of the team for Coach Howell, but it’s mostly unproven. I remember Coach Glenn say he hated to use the word “potential” but then he did anyway. SV, Cody and Powell are all interchangable on my list at this point.
though Worland lost a bunch of great players last year, including 4 all state players, 2 of them 2x selections, 6 all conference players, and the western conference player of the year, Cody Smith, they will surprise the hell out of teams this year. i’m not saying they will be state championship contenders, but they could finish 1 or 2 in the west. their backfield will be strong running behind the core of last years line. as for buffalo over douglas, i don’t see that happening. douglas just reloads as they had tons of depth.
Sisco,
I’ve got Dane Dooley and Zack Lempka on my radar for this fall for the Warriors. Who else are you talking about in terms of making an impact this fall? I would much rather know more than less when it comes to who is moving up the ranks so anything you can share as far as kids who will be making a name for themselves this fall would be appreciated.
Dane and Zack made an impact last year, so I agree with you on those too right there. no one likes to give them credit, but first and foremost i’m gonna have to mention the line. we pieced that line together last year, and it delivered better than expected. returners on the line are senior Caleb Garza, an all conference selection, and 2 juniors Ian Feather and Jon Beck. They’re gonna have to find 2 younger guys to step up for the other guard and tackle spot. If i were sanford, i would put sophomore Jacob Frederick at the other guard, and bring up freshman KC Hernandez and put him at tackle. now, having said that, the skill positions come into play. with no other go to receiver, other than maybe Lempka, look for the Warriors to play north and south football, and just run it straight down your throat. this is where other young players will come into effect. junior Bronson Hernandez will likely be at the fullback position, and trust me this kid can bang. the running back position will likely be held by sophomore Colby Wartman. both of these kids stand at about 6’0″ 200 lbs. and both have good, but not great, speed. Those two, with Dooley taking snaps, should be one tough backfield to face. Dooley is a very smart quarterback, and can run as well as throw. also, on defense look for Wartman, Hernandez, and also junior Bru Swing to lead the linebacking core. Bru and Bronson started as sophomores and performed huge for us last year. i think that’s all for right now. if i think of more, i will post them for you.
Sisco, thanks for the insights. Sounds like Worland could be scary this year, but maybe even more so next year.
–patrick
most definitely. the only area of concern has to be the defense, though. as 7 of us starters graduated, and one of last years starters got injured. they will have a brand new defensive line, and will have to replace 2 linebackers and 2 of their db’s.
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Sisco,
Thanks for the info, I appreciate it! I have to be honest, I’m hedging my bets about the Braves, they have some very cool things going on, but until I see it in a game situation, I’m going to chalk it up to Crimson & Gold goggles. I’m also expecting a very stout defense, led by all-stater Alex Cooper. I think down the stretch, the best DB in the league was TJ Guild and he’s back for his junior season. The D forced 11 INTs, 15 Fumbles and scored five touchdowns. Logan Haderlie will be ranging around after a good season last year also. The line needs to replace some playmakers, but seem to have the gumption. Good size on the OL with Pahl Schwab, Tanner Crook both over 230 and some tenacity with Cameron Turner and a couple of others. I’m actually the most excited to see the reciever corps with Taylor Keller, Ridge Hillyard, Jason Lewis and Conner Hoopes. Cody Call will mix in there as well. Hillyard, Keller and Call are looking very nice in practice so it should be fun. The biggest surprise might be Logan Abrams at QB. He’s been working for this his whole high school career, but even last year at this time he wasn’t the guy. He is now. Tough game to open with Snake River, Idaho, we’re 0-4 against them in the last handful of years and they typically have a solid club so we’ll have an nice idea where we are to begin with. We’re going to know exactly where we sit in week 3 when we play Douglas in Riverton. Despite giving up that home game, I like how the sched. plays out. The trip to Powell in October might be a doozy in terms of conference standing.
Thanks again for the info Sisco, good luck to your kids this season, no injuries!
I can see where you’re coming from with the Braves, but they lost some damn good talent to graduation. Their leading receiver from last year, Mark Van Slyke, and other names like Larry Chavez, Bill West, and that Sandoval kid. i remember when we beat them last year here in Worland, we all knew that they were a lot better than the 21-0 on the scoreboard showed. hell, Robert Heyer had a career night with 41 defensive points, 2 touchdowns, one on a tight end screen (which was magical if you weren’t there to watch), and 2 pt. conversion. my point being that last years defense was prone to big plays. and after losing some key players, who knows what could happen for them this year. i’m going to have to respectfully disagree with you of course about the best corner last year in the league, those honors go to Brad Hunter. He was a shutdown corner, and he didn’t allow a single catch all season, when playing man-to-man coverage. that being said, those are impressive numbers on the defensive side, though. i have another number for you about your Braves. 3. though their D had 26 takeaways last year, they still only managed to be +3 in the takeaway/turnover +/- ration. that should be a huge area for concern. for instance, when they came here, they had 3 int and 2 fumbles. protecting the ball has to be a main area for concern for the coaching staff. Hillyard and Abrams are on my radar, they are the two players that impressed me the most last year. ill be sure to mark my calendar for week 4 when the Warriors head to Afton. could be a dandy.
Sisco,
You’re absolutely right about protecting the pigskin. The Braves had way too many interceptions but most of them were early. After losing to you guys in Worland and Heyer’s performance (seriously, that’s an all-state campaign by itself and oh yes, I was there), the offense did a better job of protecting the ball, but there’s no doubt that most of the pressure this year is going to fall on the offense in terms of production. The defense can carry the team, but if they want to really contend, we have to get into the end zone more. And we do have to replace some great kids from the defense, but I think we’ve got a good crew coming back with some newer kids that should make the transition. Can they get to the QB like West and Sean Smith did? I guess we’ll find out. Interesting that there is such a different poll from the MaxPreps and Massey folks. Do the Warriors have a zero week game this year? SV is opting for a scrimmage this year instead
Dahl,
I’m glad you can agree with me and not argue like most people would. I think i’m too used to Wyopreps! But yes, we won’t know how good any team is until they put on the pads against someone other than their 2nd team! But no, they don’t have a zero week game. The last few years we would play Billings Central, but from what i hear this year its just going to be a black and orange scrimmage. i would like to see the Worland-Thermopolis rivalry renewed, but my guess is we won’t see that for a while
Renewing a rivalry isn’t as easy as it should be is it? We have the same issue. We played Bear Lake High School, about 50 miles away in Idaho, for 70 years. In 2002, they said they were done. Now Idaho is canceling travel budgets and clamping down and games and they are STILL fighting it. Thermop would be a good game to get back right now with them having a resurgence, I hope it works out.
yeah, it is kinda disappointing. i would have loved to play them last year, as a lot of people were saying that they would have beat us. it would have been very interesting.