Class 1A 11-man preview: Meet the new boss

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Four questions to answer

Does having fewer teams in 1A make it easier to qualify for the playoffs this year? Mathematically, yes, but realistically, no. With three teams gone to six-man football (Wyoming Indian, Saratoga and Normative Services) and Upton and Sundance still involved in their co-op agreement, only 11 schools will comprise the 1A 11-man division this fall, a total that’s down from 16 as recently as 2011. But the top tier of teams remains in the classification, and perennial powers Southeast, Lusk and Cokeville haven’t gone anywhere….

Can anyone win this year’s 1A title other than Southeast, Lusk or Cokeville? In short, no. The three powerhouse programs have a combined 11 all-state selections back this fall; the other eight programs in the classification have just seven returning all-staters combined. And of all the 1A 11-man schools, only these three have reached Laramie the past three years.

So of those three schools, who’s the favorite to win it all? That’s the million-dollar question this year. Cokeville and Lusk have four returning all-state selections apiece, while defending champ Southeast has three. All three teams are loaded for title runs, but none of the three is the clear-cut favorite entering the season.

Of the remaining eight teams, which one has the best chance to spring a playoff upset on one of the favorites? Probably Upton-Sundance. The Patriots, in the second year of their co-op, return one of the most explosive players in the classification in junior running back Jett Materi. The Patriots played exceptionally better the second half of 2012 than in the first half, and now that the kinks have been worked out of the co-op situation, the U-S squad has the potential to be one of the spoilers in 1A this fall.

Four players to watch

Wyatt Somsen and Colton Stees, Southeast. Yes, I’m cheating a bit by taking two players with one choice. But Somsen was the East Conference’s offensive player of the year last year (he ran for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns) and Stees, in addition to opening a lot of holes for Somsen on the offensive line, was the conference’s defensive player of the year two years ago. And they were both all-state choices last year. Together, they give the Cyclones an offense-defense tandem few, if any, teams in 1A can match.

Cody Nate and Brock Teichert, Cokeville. Again, two players go together with one choice, but to bring up one and not the other is a disservice to the way Cokeville plays football. Nate and Teichert were equally valuable pieces of the Panther lines in 2012. On offense, they paced a strong rushing game, and on defense, they finished third and fourth on the team in total defensive points. Nate is already a two-time all-state selection, while Teichert earned his first all-state nod last year.

Tucker McKim, Riverside. As a sophomore last year, McKim led 1A 11-man in catches (46) and receiving yards (670). One of four returning players who were named all-state as sophomores, McKim will need a similar season in 2013 for Riverside to stay competitive in the West.

Matthew VandeBossche, Lusk. VandeBossche led the Tigers in all-purpose offense, scoring and punting last year and also played a key role on the Tigers’ defense. One of just four juniors named to the Casper Star-Tribune’s Super 25 first team a year ago, VandeBossche’s play will be critical in the Tigers’ attempt to return to Laramie.

Four key games

Southeast at Cokeville, Sept. 13. Two of them most consistent, most successful 1A 11-man programs over the last two decades are meeting for the first time in the regular season. This might be the biggest nonconference game in the state this year, regardless of classification. Just don’t expect either coach to play every card in the deck in the regular season — not with a potential rematch awaiting in the postseason.

Shoshoni at Burlington and Rocky Mountain at Riverside, Sept. 20. Will any teams step up to Cokeville’s challenge in the West Conference this year? We’ll find out in Week 3. The Wranglers, Huskies, Grizzlies and Rebels all want to be that team to challenge the Panthers, but to do so, they have to win competitive conference openers against a team that wants to do exactly what they’re trying to do.

Upton-Sundance at Lusk, Oct. 11. The Patriots almost pulled off the upset against the Tigers before falling in last year’s regular-season finale. In the co-op’s second year, the Patriots could be even more dangerous, even (and maybe especially) to a top-tier 1A team like Lusk.

Lusk at Southeast, Oct. 18. This is the most important East Conference game year in and year out. With a combined seven all-state choices back this fall (four for Lusk, three for Southeast), this year looks no different. Oh, and the Tigers have to be eager for a bit of revenge for what the Cyclones did to them in Laramie last November….

Predicted order of finish

East: Southeast, Lusk, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Pine Bluffs. West: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Shoshoni, Burlington, Wind River.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Some 1A math for you: Big 3, minus 1, plus “The War,” equals a guess. Southeast 21, Cokeville 20.

Trivia

Who has more victories as a Wyoming high school head football coach — Cokeville’s Todd Dayton or the other 10 coaches in Class 1A 11-man combined?

Classification’s 2013 theme song

How many 1s and 11s can you handle? After all, there are 11 1A 11-man teams this year… which one will end up No. 1? Comment below with some thoughts and we’ll figure out November in August together.

Next Thursday: Class 2A.

–patrick

Class 1A six-man preview: Turn and face the Chiefs… and Wolves… and Panthers… and Eagles

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Four questions to answer

Will the new six-man teams be competitive in their first year? At least one will be in the title hunt right away, but with four new teams entering six-man this year — Wyoming Indian, Normative Services and Saratoga moving down from 11-man and St. Stephens coming up from the junior-varsity level — anything is possible. Saratoga, an 11-man playoff qualifier just two years ago, has the best chance of being immediately competitive. Meanwhile, NSI and Wyoming Indian are a combined 5-57 the past four years and can only benefit from the switch.

Even so, is Dubois still the favorite? Yep. The Rams won their first state football championship last year and even though they lost five all-staters, main offensive weapon Sterling Baker and fellow all-state pick Austin Tharp will return to keep the Rams in the upper echelon of six-man.

Whose turn is it for a breakthrough year? Midwest. The Oilers have been gearing for 2013 for a while now, and with both of the squad’s all-state players (Cam Ray and Tucker Even) back from last year, can you blame them? Midwest is the early favorite in a restructured East Conference and is a legitimate threat to make it back to a state championship game for the first time since winning the nine-man title in 1991.

How have you gotten this far without mentioning Snake River? Good question. The Rattlers have been participants in the past three state title games, winning it all in 2010 and 2011. But the perennial pacesetters in six-man lost 10 seniors and all their starters to graduation and now face a conference schedule that includes state champ Dubois, up-and-comer Meeteetse and 11-man newcomer Wyoming Indian. The Rattlers will likely still be one of six-man’s better teams, but unlike the last few years, the Rattlers will have to earn that designation rather than have it given to them.

Four players to watch

Sterling Baker, Dubois. The North Conference’s offensive player of the year last year, Baker ran for 1,933 yards and 34 touchdowns in leading the Rams to the state championship. He also threw most of the Rams’ passes, throwing for 569 yards and 12 scores, and was second on the team in defensive points. He’ll again be the catalyst for the Rams if they hope to make it back to Laramie to defend their title.

Cam Ray, Midwest. One of two all-state choices back for the Oilers this fall, Ray led the Oilers in most major statistical categories, piling up 1,983 yards of all-purpose offense, scoring 114 points and notching more than 20 defensive points per game. The diminutive quarterback will be a big piece of Midwest’s success in 2013.

Seth Bennett, Meeteetse. Bennett missed the bulk of his sophomore season due to injury, but came back with a vengeance as a junior. He led Class 1A six-man in rushing yards (1,951), rushing touchdowns (39), scoring (261 total points) and all-purpose offense (3,485 total yards), and was fifth in 1A in defensive points. And he’s back.

Story Penning, Hulett. One of the most athletic football players in the state, Penning is the charge that makes the Red Devils’ offense go. An all-state choice last year, Penning ran for 1,420 yards — 12.5 yards per attempt — and 17 touchdowns; more importantly, he was second in the state with 27 defensive points per game.

Four key games

Saratoga at Midwest, Sept. 20. Perhaps the most intriguing game on the six-man calendar, this game will answer numerous questions: Is this really Midwest’s breakthrough year? How will Saratoga match up in six-man conference play? And can either team mount a serious challenge to the West Conference’s top teams in the playoffs?

Hulett at Kaycee, Sept. 28. No one can overlook the Red Devils this fall. Poised for a breakthrough year in six-man, Hulett will need this victory over the perennial contenders from Kaycee to establish itself as a serious contender for the state title.

Dubois at Snake River, Oct. 19. Snake River beat Dubois for the 2011 six-man title; Dubois beat Snake River for the 2012 six-man title. This one is big.

Dubois at Wyoming Indian, Oct. 25. Every game the Chiefs play this fall will be interesting, as the school with just one playoff berth in program history to its credit tries to reverse its fortunes in what may be its only playoff-eligible year of six-man. The regular-season finale could be the ramp-up to a memorable playoff run, or it could be the end of a busted experiment. For long-suffering Chiefs football fans, we can hope for the former.

Predicted order of finish

East: Midwest, Guernsey, Saratoga, Hulett, Kaycee, Hanna, NSI. West: Dubois, Meeteetse, Snake River, Wyoming Indian, Farson, St. Stephens, Ten Sleep.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

I can’t pick the Oilers without being accused of being a homer. So I’ll vote my head and not my heart. Dubois 60, Midwest 56.

Trivia

Normative Services enters 2013 with an unfortunate streak in tow — the Wolves haven’t beaten a varsity opponent on the road in 21 consecutive tries. The question: Who was the last varsity team to lose to NSI away from Sheridan?

Classification’s 2013 theme song

So who’s your pick to win it all in six-man this year? The changes, plus the talent turnover, will make this one of the most intriguing classifications this season. Post some thoughts below and let’s start discussing the season!

Next Thursday: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 4: Class 3A

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The shaking of my confidence continues today with Class 3A, the fourth of a five-part picks marathon. Before you read the picks below, take a minute to read a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Douglas, Buffalo, Riverton, Lander, Torrington, Rawlins. West: Powell, Star Valley, Cody, Green River, Jackson, Worland.

THE TEAMS
Douglas
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: The East side is down a bit this year, and a solid Bearcats squad will benefit from that.

Buffalo
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I’m still trying to decide if Buffalo’s slide to a losing record last year was an aberration or the start of a trend. I’m thinking aberration.

Riverton
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: After last year’s run to the conference title, the Wolverines lost a lot to graduation. Such losses almost always precipitate a drop in the standings. Oh, and a new system to learn….

Lander
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: The Tigers still have steps to make to be considered a true conference title contender. But they’re not a bad team by any stretch.

Torrington
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the top four and bottom two are pretty clear in the East. However, that means the Trailblazers are just an upset away from the playoffs….

Rawlins
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: You’ll notice that my confidence levels for Torrington and Rawlins are exactly the same. That’s because the loser of that Torrington-Rawlins game in Week 5 will have a heck of a time escaping the basement.

Powell
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This is one of the easiest picks of the season. The two-time defending champs have a ton of talent coming back. And everyone knows it.

Star Valley
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The West will be a challenging conference this year. I’m really curious to see how the Braves respond after some success last year.

Cody
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Cody’s best chance at a state title may be a year away. That doesn’t mean they can’t be contenders right now, though.

Green River
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: I’m a bit scared to have the Wolves this low, but in a stacked conference, this is all the higher they can go in the preseason.

Jackson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Unfortunately for the Broncs (and Worland), I think the dividing line between playoff and non-playoff teams in the West this year is pretty clear.

Worland
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: I feel like everyone’s overlooking Worland. Including me.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Douglas over Green River, Cody over Buffalo, Star Valley over Riverton, Powell over Lander; semifinals, Star Valley over Douglas, Powell over Cody; championship, Powell over Star Valley.

Class 3A seems pretty straightforward this year: Everyone’s chasing Powell, and the West is stronger than the East. But is it really that simple? Is anything in life ever what it seems?

Tomorrow: Class 4A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 3: Class 2A

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The five-part pick-a-thon for Wyoming high school football continues today with Class 2A. Before you dive in, see a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Big Horn, Burns, Glenrock, Wheatland, Newcastle, Wright, Moorcroft, Tongue River. West: Mountain View, Lovell, Greybull, Lyman, Pinedale, Thermopolis, Kemmerer, Big Piney.

THE TEAMS
Big Horn
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: In talking to the coaches in the East this summer, one thing is clear: No one knows who the favorite is. Big Horn gets the nod out of respect for what it did a year ago.

Burns
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the East, Burns has the most returning. And they’ve got something to prove after a couple years of lackluster season finishes.

Glenrock
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I think Glenrock is a playoff team this year. That means they could finish anywhere from first to fourth… and anywhere in between.

Wheatland
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: It’s been hard for me to get a read on the Bulldogs. I think they’ve got the talent to win the whole thing. I think they have to prove it to both themselves and their opponents before they can be legit contenders, though.

Newcastle
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: This was the hardest pick of them all. Newcastle should be really good this year. In a jumbled, unpredictable East, though, they could finish on the outside looking in. But, obviously, I’m not confident about that…

Wright
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: Of the six teams with legit chances to make a run at the East Conference title this year, the Panthers were the one most often labeled with the “potential” tag. The task is turning potential into results.

Moorcroft
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 80 percent
My gut says: Moorcroft will be better. The problem is most everyone else in the East is, too.

Tongue River
Pick: Eighth in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: The rebuilding continues in Dayton. Rome wasn’t built in a day; neither will be the Eagles.

Mountain View
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Mountain View might be a year away from its best season. They’re still good enough to win the West this year, though.

Lovell
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: The Bulldogs lost a lot from last year’s squad, so having them this high is a bit scary to me. They earned a lot of respect from other coaches in the conference, though, even despite that.

Greybull
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: For a team that finished 3-6, this might seem high, but almost every coach in the West said Greybull has the goods to go far this year.

Lyman
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: Lyman earned more respect than this last year, but the loss of a tremendous senior class puts the Eagles here for now. I can’t tell whether they’re ready for another deep playoff run or rebuilding after losing so much.

Pinedale
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The Wranglers are still middle-of-the-road right now: good enough to demand respect, but not good enough (yet) to be feared.

Thermopolis
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: A coaching change and the loss of a decently sized senior class has me thinking the worst for the Bobcats this fall. I put them here because I think they’ve got enough talent to prove me wrong. I think.

Kemmerer
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: A Shawn Rogers-coached team should never be picked this low. And yet, here, I did it. I’m dumb.

Big Piney
Pick: Eighth in West
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Until the Punchers pick up a conference victory, I have to default to picking them here. That said, this is a program that will improve dramatically this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish outside the cellar.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Big Horn over Lyman, Burns over Greybull, Lovell over Glenrock, Mountain View over Wheatland; semifinals, Big Horn over Lovell, Mountain View over Burns; championship, Mountain View over Big Horn.

My confidence index in that championship game actually happening? Like 2 percent. This classification is by far the least predictable of any class this year. Talking to the coaches in the classification only further proved that.

Tomorrow: Class 3A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 2: Class 1A 11-man

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Our look at predictions for each classification of Wyoming high school football turns today to Class 1A 11-man. See a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Southeast, Lusk, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Pine Bluffs. West: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Shoshoni, Burlington, Wind River.

THE TEAMS
Southeast
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: Either Lusk or Southeast will win the East this year. The game between the two of them is in Yoder. Hence me picking the Cyclones.

Lusk
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: The Tigers won’t finish any lower than second. They’ll have to beat Southeast in  Yoder, though, to earn the top seed – a tough task.

Upton-Sundance
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This may be the easiest pick of the season. The Patriots are solid and deep, but they probably don’t have enough to keep up with Southeast or Lusk. Yet.

Lingle
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: The Doggers are consistently a tough team to beat. All it will take for them to move up is for one team to overlook them.

Pine Bluffs
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: I feel like the Hornets deserve respect this fall, but every time I look at the conference, they end up here. Sorry, Pine.

Cokeville
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 100 percent
My gut says: When the stampede is coming, you get the heck out of the way.

Rocky Mountain
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: Places 2-6 in the West are a mess. But I think the Grizzlies have the slightest of edges to take that second spot and host in the first round.

Riverside
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’ve got the Rebels awfully high this season, especially considering that the squad has had turnover in both the playing and coaching ranks. But I like the talent up in Basin.

Shoshoni
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 10 percent
My gut says: Shoshoni should be higher than this. Like I said, places 2-6 are a mess. I wish I could just say “tie” and move on. But I can’t, because you expect more of me than that. So I put Shoshoni here, knowing they’ll probably not finish here.

Burlington
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the West, Burlington may have lost the most from last year. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a playoff-caliber team, though.

Wind River
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I had to put someone last. The Cougars could just as easily finish second in the conference as they could sixth. It’s that kind of year in the West. Lots of fun = low predictability.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Southeast over Shoshoni, Lusk over Riverside, Rocky Mountain over Upton-Sundance, Cokeville over Lingle. Semifinals, Southeast over Rocky Mountain, Cokeville over Lusk. Championship, Southeast over Cokeville.

The big three still reign supreme in Class 1A 11-man this year, and it will be interesting to see (1) whether Southeast, Lusk or Cokeville wins the state title and (2) if any of the other eight teams in the class can even come close to knocking off one of those three.

Tomorrow: Class 2A.

–patrick

2013 Wyoming football picks, part 1: Class 1A six-man

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In preparation for the second annual Wyoming Sports Preview Guide magazine, I’ve spent the last two months talking to football coaches across the state. So far, I’ve talked to 62 of the 64 coaches (NSI doesn’t have a coach yet, and for one school I talked to an assistant coach rather than the head coach).

A standard question I asked every coach was to pick the favorite in their conference. In asking that question, something became clear — sometimes, the coaches are just as uncertain about who should be the favorites as the guys asking the question.

Just like in previous years, I’m posting my predictions for the standings for each classification and conference. But new this year is the “Confidence Index,” a number that demonstrates my faith that I’ve picked that team’s placing correctly. The “Confidence Index” has no basis in math; it’s more an instinctual feeling than anything.

As we progress, you’ll notice some classifications and conferences have a higher overall confidence than others. That’s not a mistake. Some classes are easier to pick than others — both for me and for the coaches.

The picks will start today with the classification with the smallest schools, Class 1A six-man:

THE PICKS
East: Midwest, Guernsey, Saratoga, Hulett, Kaycee, Hanna, NSI. West: Dubois, Meeteetse, Snake River, Wyoming Indian, Farson, St. Stephens, Ten Sleep.

THE TEAMS
Midwest
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: Almost every coach in six-man says this is the Oilers’ year to break through. I agree.

Guernsey
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Guernsey will challenge the best teams in six-man this year. To finish this high, though, they’ll have to win a bevy of tough games.

Saratoga
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The transition from 11-man to six-man will be good for the Panthers, and I’m all but certain they’ll make the playoffs. But the steep learning curve may keep them from hosting in the first round.

Hulett
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Hulett is a genuine middle-of-the-pack team. The game against Kaycee in Week 4 may be for a playoff spot.

Kaycee
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: I think I have Kaycee too low. But I also think the four teams I have ahead of them are better teams – this year. One upset will be all Kaycee needs to make the postseason.

Hanna
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Hanna won’t be an easy team to beat. However, a coaching change plus a lack of depth probably means this won’t be the Miners’ year to make a deep playoff run.

NSI
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’m so scared to put the Wolves here. Six-man could be the program’s niche. As it stands, though, the lack of certainty about the program’s makeup from year to year forces me to have them here.

Dubois
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: Just like Midwest in the East, Dubois in the West was basically a unanimous No. 1 choice from the coaches. I trust them.

Meeteetse
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: The Longhorns are poised to be one of six-man’s toughest teams to beat this fall. Even so, I’m not sure if it’s enough to oust Dubois as the favorite.

Snake River
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I put the Rattlers here out of respect for the program and the tradition it has. What scares me is that the team lost basically all the experience it had to graduation, and the players coming back are untested.

Wyoming Indian
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: I think the Chiefs could finish even higher than this, but I hesitate to put them any higher because of (1) history and (2) the six-man learning curve. The Week 6 showdown vs. Snake looms huge.

Farson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the Pronghorns are steadily improving, and they have what it takes to notch a couple victories this year. But that’s it.

St. Stephens
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence: 65 percent
Why?: The Eagles are young and inexperienced. They’ll struggle in their first year of varsity play. But they’ve got enough going right to pull a surprise or two.

Ten Sleep
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence: 50 percent
My gut says: The Pioneers only anticipate having seven players. They’re two injuries away from not even having a team. That won’t make them pushovers, though.

THE PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Midwest over Wyoming Indian, Guernsey over Snake River, Meeteetse over Saratoga, Dubois over Hulett; semifinals, Midwest over Meeteetse, Dubois over Guernsey; championship, Dubois over Midwest.

Six-man football has generally been upset-free in its short history, but the classification has more teams — and now more parity — than in previous years. That could make for a fun, unpredictable season.

Tomorrow: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick

Wyoming’s football reclassification look for 2014-15 — a preview

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The 2013 football season is little more than a one-year stopover for reclassification.

A new cutoff for six-man football and a revised Class 2A will be established in 2014, and several schools will feel the effects of the new alignments.

This we know: With Rock River joining varsity play in 2014, and the Upton-Sundance co-op in agreement through 2015, the reclass cycle will be based on 64 participating schools. But where will each school end up?

That depends on each school’s enrollment. The ADMs (Average Daily Membership numbers) used by the WHSAA to reclassify schools will not be released until mid-August, but using enrollment figures posted on the Wyoming Department of Education’s website, we can estimate who might be moving where.

(Of course, WDE enrollment numbers and ADMs are different. This is by no means official — consider these educated guesses.)

4A/3A and 3A/2A: No anticipated changes.

2A/1A 11-man: Two teams will drop due to the new cutline of 14 Class 2A schools, down from 16. Right now, I anticipate those two schools will be Tongue River and Moorcroft.

1A 11-man/1A six-man: With the new cutline of 14, some six-man schools may have to be moved up. I anticipate those current six-man schools above the cutline for six-man will be Wyoming Indian and Saratoga; I anticipate that all other current six-man schools will fall below the cutline. I also foresee one school falling below the six-man cutline opting up to play 11-man — Cokeville.

++++

As for conferences:

4A and 3A will look the same.

New 2A: West: Big Piney, Kemmerer, Lyman, Mountain View, Pinedale, Greybull, Lovell. East: Big Horn, Newcastle, Thermopolis, Glenrock, Burns, Wright, Wheatland.

New 1A 11-man: West: Burlington, Cokeville, Wind River, Wyoming Indian, Riverside, Rocky Mountain, Saratoga, Shoshoni. East: Tongue River, Moorcroft, Upton-Sundance, Lusk, Lingle, Pine Bluffs, Southeast.

New 1A six-man: West: Snake River, Dubois, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens, Farson. East: Hulett, Kaycee, Midwest, Guernsey, Hanna, NSI, Rock River.

In other words, the WHSAA’s worst nightmare — an odd number of teams in both divisions of 1A.

An odd number of schools in each classification creates numerous scheduling problems. The WHSAA’s best option is to try to convince one of the six-man schools to opt up to 11-man to join Cokeville, or to have one of the 11-man schools voluntarily choose to opt down to six-man, even though such a move would make that team ineligible for the playoffs.

Fortunately (?), the state has an even number of programs for both the 2014 and 2015 schools; the future of the Upton-Sundance co-op won’t be known until after the agreement between the two schools ends after the 2015 season.

Again, remember these are only estimates. We won’t know for sure who’s going where until the official numbers are released, and enrollment numbers and ADMs are different. Nevertheless, enrollment numbers tend to be close enough to ADMs to allow for educated guesses like these….

–patrick

A modest (2014 nonconference schedule) proposal

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With the new football alignment cutoffs coming into play in 2014, new schedules will have to be constructed by the WHSAA, as well.

The 2013 schedule was little more than a one-year stopgap in the three-year hiatus on reclassification — a hiatus that didn’t apply to football. That means the 2014 schedule is likely to be quite a bit different from the 2013 schedule, which was quite a bit different from the 2012 schedule.

And, with all due respect to the WHSAA, I want to take a crack at designing it.

First of all, a couple assumptions: I build this schedule with the assumptions that current enrollment ADMs will hold (meaning Tongue River and Big Horn drop down to 1A, prompting one school (I’m saying Thermopolis) to move to the 2A East Conference), that Cokeville and Burlington will opt up to 11-man in Class 1A (because the new enrollment cutoffs will have both schools in six-man), that Saratoga and Wyoming Indian will opt to move into 11-man after a year in six-man (because that’s where the enrollment numbers will put them), and that Upton and Sundance will break up their co-op.

I also didn’t design 4A or 1A six-man schedules; those classifications have no out-of-class action, save a random JV game that occasionally pops up in six-man play.

With these assumptions, in 2014, 3A schools, with six teams per conference, will get three nonconference games; 2A schools, with seven teams per conference, get two nonconference games; and 1A 11-man schools, with eight teams per conference, get one nonconference game.

Keep in mind that the WHSAA has proven in building schedules that geography and distance are not the lone considerations. Competitive balance is also a big factor in schedule design.

Nevertheless, I tried to have some fun in developing this schedule. I paired together some teams that haven’t played each other in a while (or have never played before) and I increased out-of-state play (easier said than done). I also tried to bring back natural regional rivalries, so games like Douglas-Glenrock, Sundance-Moorcroft, Greybull-Riverside, Wheatland-Torrington and Burns-Pine Bluffs were keys — and starting points — on my schedule.

Of course, several changes could have been made here. The last game I finalized (and, therefore, the game I like the least) is the Week 2 game between Newcastle and Big Piney. The second-to-last game I finalized was the Week 2 game between Glenrock and Lyman. Aside from those two games, I think the rest of the schedule is pretty reasonable, given the WHSAA’s past schedules and the desire for both geographically close and competitively equal games:

(Note: Game weeks are in parentheses.)

3A East
Buffalo: (W1) Worland, (W2) Powell and (W3) Cody
Douglas: (W1) Glenrock, (W2) Green River and (W3) Powell
Lander: (W1) Cody, (W2) Star Valley and (W3) Worland
Rawlins: (W1) Wheatland, (W2) Wright and (W3) Jackson
Riverton: (W1) Green River, (W2) Cody and (W3) Star Valley
Torrington: (W1) Somebody in Nebraska, (W2) Wheatland and (W3) Green River

3A West
Cody: (W1) Lander, (W2) Riverton and (W3) Buffalo
Green River: (W1) Riverton, (W2) Douglas and (W3) Torrington
Jackson: (W1) Teton, Idaho, (W2) Pinedale and (W3) Rawlins
Powell: (W1) Somebody in Montana, (W2) Buffalo and (W3) Douglas
Star Valley: (W1) Snake River, Idaho, (W2) Lander and (W3) Riverton
Worland: (W1) Buffalo, (W2) Lovell and (W3) Lander

2A East
Burns: (W1) Pine Bluffs and (W2) Somebody in Nebraska
Glenrock: (W1) Douglas and (W2) Lyman
Moorcroft: (W1) Sundance and (W2) Greybull
Newcastle: (W1) Southeast and (W2) Big Piney
Thermopolis: (W1) Lovell and (W2) Kemmerer
Wheatland: (W1) Rawlins and (W2) Torrington
Wright: (W1) Big Horn and (W2) Rawlins

2A West
Big Piney: (W1) Rocky Mountain and (W2) Newcastle
Greybull: (W1) Riverside and (W2) Moorcroft
Kemmerer: (W1) Wind River and (W2) Thermopolis
Lovell: (W1) Thermopolis and (W2) Worland
Lyman: (W1) Somebody in Utah and (W2) Glenrock
Mountain View: (W1) Cokeville and (W2) Somebody in Utah
Pinedale: (W1) Saratoga and (W2) Jackson

1A 11-man East
Big Horn: Wright
Lingle: Somebody in Nebraska
Lusk: Shoshoni
Pine Bluffs: Burns
Southeast: Newcastle
Sundance: Moorcroft
Tongue River: Burlington
Upton: Wyoming Indian

1A 11-man West
Burlington: Tongue River
Cokeville: Mountain View
Riverside: Greybull
Rocky Mountain: Big Piney
Saratoga: Pinedale
Shoshoni: Lusk
Wind River: Kemmerer
Wyoming Indian: Upton

In an alternate Week 1 schedule where out-of-state games were tough to get, I had Lingle-Shoshoni, Lusk-Newcastle, Southeast-Wheatland and Rawlins-Lyman. Ultimately, though, I figured if Lyman could find a Utah game and Lingle a Nebraska game, that would work better for all eight schools; if that alternative didn’t work, this all-in-state option would suffice.

No matter how the 2014 schedule comes together, I’d consider trying to go through this same exercise yourself. Post your designs below. Going through this process helps you feel a lot of empathy for the process the WHSAA has to go through every year to make a schedule that works for as many programs as possible. It’s tough.

–patrick

The ripple effects of Wyoming’s new football classifications

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A couple weeks ago, the Wyoming High School Activities Association set new cutoffs for the number of teams in each football classification.

The biggest changes come in the small-school ranks, where Class 2A will go from 16 to 14 teams and where a 14-school cutoff line was established in Class 1A to separate 11-man and six-man squads.

The WHSAA’s decision has some ramifications worth deeper consideration:

Scheduling: With an anticipated 14 schools in 2A and Class 1A 11-man (although 1A might be different, and we’ll get to that in a second), the schools in those classifications will have the chance to have one more nonconference game before diving into a six-game conference schedule. This change highlights two important points: the chance for more flexibility in nonconference scheduling (which may reduce total travel for schools) and the ability to have a balanced conference schedule with three home games and three road games.

The WHSAA, which makes all the varsity football schedules statewide, has not had a lot of flexibility in scheduling because of the large, eight-team conferences in 2A and 1A 11-man the past few years. The flexibility afforded by smaller conferences — even if that flexibility is only one additional nonconference game — should help the WHSAA keep some schools closer to home during the first two weeks of the season.

But one of the problems with this option is that it doesn’t account for schools opting up, and two 11-man programs that, if the cutlines existed now, would be classified as six-man would likely do just that, thereby eliminating a week of nonconference flexibility for the 1A 11-man classification.

Opting up/down: With the 1A cutline established where it is — the 14 largest 1A schools as 11-man, the remainder as six-man — at least four schools will probably have tough decisions to make.

Although the final classifications won’t be set until enrollment numbers are collected after this school year, if the enrollments remain consistent from the last reclassification cycle in 2011, two current 11-man schools — Burlington and Cokeville — would be classified as six-man. Cokeville has a long history of opting up in situations like this and would likely be the first in line to move to 11-man; Burlington could follow. And even if Burlington’s enrollment number classifies it as an 11-man school, the program that was right above the Huskies in enrollment in 2011 — Upton — has been adamant about salvaging its 11-man program and avoiding six-man at all costs.

Conversely, two schools that opted down to six-man for the 2013 season — Wyoming Indian and Saratoga — will likely fall into the 11-man classification for 2014. Those schools will have a tough choice to make: stay in six-man and be ineligible for the playoffs, or go back to 11-man after one year in six-man. Either way, the coaches, administrators and players face a difficult conundrum if the enrollment numbers stand up, as they most certainly will for the Chiefs and probably will for Saratoga, especially with the Panthers’ co-op with Encampment in effect.

Normative Services, which will move from 11-man to six-man in 2013, has a stable and low enrollment that should place the Wolves safely in the six-man ranks for years to come.

The Upton-Sundance co-op: Upton and Sundance are entering the second season of their temporary co-op in 2013. If the Patriots want to continue in 2014, though, they face an interesting situation, one that may make it easier for them to stay connected.

One of the big questions the U-S team faced in 2012 was playoff eligibility. To remain eligible, the combined enrollments of the two programs (the total Upton enrollment plus the Sundance male enrollment) had to be smaller than the smallest Class 2A school. It was, just barely, and the Patriots finished 2012 in third place in the 1A 11-man East, qualifying for the playoffs.

With the two largest 2A schools coming down to Class 1A in 2014, though, the enrollment cutoff for the two schools to reach will likely be quite a bit higher, making it easier for the two schools to stay together and remain playoff eligible if they so choose. If participation numbers for the two programs remain in the low teens apiece, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots survive to 2014 and 2015.

Rock River: The Longhorns finished their first season of junior-varsity six-man football last year and are set to play another JV season in 2013. With the school still tentatively scheduled to make the jump to varsity play in 2014, the state will have an uneven number of football programs (65), making scheduling for either the 11-man or the six-man division that much more difficult depending on opt-ups or opt-downs as listed above.

Of course, if the Upton-Sundance co-op remains in tact, the state will have 64 football programs. But even with an even number, opt-ups and opt-downs could create an odd number of schools in BOTH 11-man and six-man at the 1A level, which could be a scheduling nightmare for the WHSAA.

Class 4A and Class 3A: Barring some large shifts in enrollment, Class 4A and Class 3A will remain untouched by these changes in 2014. The only potential shifts in 3A could be in nonconference scheduling, as we may see more 2A-3A interclass games now that 2A schools have an extra week of nonconference scheduling available. We will only see two such games in 2013, and they both, obviously, come in Week 1: Glenrock at Torrington and Rawlins at Kemmerer.

Who moves: This is always the biggest question in any reclassification proposal. For now, only two schools will actually switch classifications, as the smallest two schools in 2A will move to 1A. Using 2011’s ADMs, those schools would be Tongue River and Big Horn. Don’t be surprised if that’s the case: When ADMs were calculated for the last reclassification cycle in 2010, Big Horn was the smallest 2A school at about 140; Tongue River was second-smallest at 145; Moorcroft was third-smallest at 163. Either Big Horn or Tongue River would have had to have done some significant growing, or Moorcroft (or Greybull or Wright) would have had to have done some significant shrinking, to have anyone but the Rams or Eagles move. (But don’t pen the moves in just yet. ADMs are always a little quirky. No one knows where, exactly, they’ll fall until the numbers are finalized.)

The remaining moves will be based on two things: (1) enrollment, although the existing gaps between the smallest 4A/3A schools and the largest 3A/2A schools make such changes seem unlikely, and (2) any six-man to 11-man or 11-man to six-man changes, as outlined above.

Big picture: The WHSAA made some good changes with this proposal. Six-man is now stable enough to support itself — it doesn’t need the “help” of bigger programs dropping down to supplement numbers. The eight-team conferences in 2A and 1A 11-man proved unmanageable, and although seven-team conferences aren’t much better, they are an improvement and should provide some travel relief. New programs at St. Stephens and Rock River should help bolster and stabilize six-man. The proposal has enough flexibility to accommodate an Upton-Sundance co-op (or, for that matter, other co-ops that may develop).

Of course, as with any changes, questions will linger until we have a chance to see the proposal in action. Nevertheless, these changes are good, necessary steps to stability in the small-school classes.

–patrick

Wyoming’s biggest single-season turnarounds

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The only perfect season in Guernsey Longhorn history had its roots in the most unexpected of places — a winless season.

From 0-7 in 1950 to 7-0 in 1951, the Guernsey squad had the most fantastic one-season turnaround any Wyoming high school football team has ever experienced.

Although the 1951 season was cut short — Guernsey was hit hard by polio, and one of the Longhorn players, Floyd Stellpflug, died the week before Guernsey was scheduled to play Huntley for the Southeast Conference’s six-man championship.

Guernsey also canceled its final scheduled game of the season against Lyman, Neb., but nevertheless finished unbeaten. The Longhorns beat Sunrise and Glenrock twice each and also beat Lingle, Albin and Manville that year; close scares against Manville (20-16) and Sunrise (25-24) nearly derailed perfection.

Guernsey’s feat has never been duplicated, although several schools have come close. In all, 28 Wyoming high school football teams have seen their winning percentages jump by at least .750 from one season to the next; 32 schools have had fall-offs of .750 or more.

And while no school has ever fallen from unbeaten and untied to winless and untied, only the Guernsey Longhorns jumped from a winless, tie-less season to an unbeaten, untied season.

(For full disclosure — Guernsey has one missing game in 1950, an Oct. 13 date with Glenrock. However, Glenrock beat Guernsey 34-6 on Sept. 15 of that season.)

Three programs, meanwhile, went the opposite direction just as fast. Those three programs went from a zero in the loss column one year to a zero in the win column the next year — Cokeville went from 9-0-1 in 1974 to 0-8 in 1975 (a .950 winning percentage decrease), Mountain View went from 7-0-1 in 1971 to 0-9 in 1972 (a .938 decrease) and Lander went from 7-0 in 1927 to 0-5-1 in 1928 (a .917 decrease). Two other programs had decreases of .900 or more in their winning percentage from one year to the next; however, Guernsey is the only program to see its winning percentage jump by more than .900 from one season to the next.

Some schools made both lists thanks to one wild swing. Cokeville had a quick bottoming out in 1975; the Panthers went from 9-0-1 in 1974 to 0-8 to 1975 back up to 6-2 in 1976. (Cokeville’s fall from 1974 to 1975 is statistically the most dramatic in state history, as lined out above.) Two other schools had astronomic rises followed by dramatic tumbles: Guernsey-Sunrise went from 2-6 in 2008 to 9-0 in 2009 back down to 1-8 in 2010, while Lander went from 2-6 in 1926 to 7-0 in 1927 back down to 0-5-1 in 1928.

Below are the schools that have either improved or fallen back by at least .750 in their winning percentage in consecutive years, with the most dramatic turnarounds listed first (minimum four games in each season):

Improvement

Guernsey, 1950-51, from 0-7 to 7-0 (1.00 improvement)

Lingle, 1989-90, from 1-7 to 10-0 (.875 improvement) (Lingle’s sudden fortune was precipitated by a move from 11-man to 9-man; Lingle returned to 11-man in 1991 and went 5-3, reaching the state semifinals)

Lusk, 1990-91, from 1-7 to 7-0 (.875 improvement) (Lusk was ineligible for the 1991 playoffs)

Big Horn, 1939-40, from 0-4 to 6-1 (.857 improvement) (1939 was Big Horn’s first season)

Powell, 1942-43, from 1-6 to 9-0 (.857 improvement)

Cowley, 1939-40, from 0-7 to 5-1 (.833 improvement)

Sunrise, 1937-38, from 0-6 to 5-1 (.833 improvement)

Sunrise, 1945-46, from 0-4 to 5-1 (.833 improvement)

Gillette, 1921-22, from 0-4 to 4-1 (.800 improvement) (1921 was Gillette’s first season)

Greybull, 1982-83, from 0-8 to 8-2 (.800 improvement) (this improvement coincided with Greybull’s move from Class A to Class B)

Hulett, 1956-57, from 0-5 to 4-1 (.800 improvement)

Superior, 1949-50, from 0-7 to 8-2 (.800 improvement)

Greybull, 1923-24, from 0-7 to 5-1-1 (.786 improvement)

St. Mary’s, 1971-72, from 2-7 to 10-0 (.778 improvement) (this improvement coincided with St. Mary’s’ move from Class A to Class B)

Meeteetse, 1986-87, from 0-7 to 7-2 (.778 improvement)

Moorcroft, 1958-59, from 0-4 to 7-2 (.778 improvement)

Newcastle, 1939-40, from 2-7 to 8-0 (.778 improvement)

Burns, 1988-89, from 1-7 to 9-1 (.775 improvement)

Lander, 1971-72, from 1-7 to 8-1 (.763 improvement)

Tongue River, 1961-62, from 0-4-1 to 6-1 (.757 improvement)

Cokeville, 1975-76, from 0-8 to 6-2 (.750 improvement)

Dubois, 1983-84, from 1-7 to 7-1 (.750 improvement)

Guernsey-Sunrise, 2008-09, from 2-6 to 9-0 (.75o improvement) (2009 was Wyoming’s return year to six-man football)

Hulett, 1980-81, from 0-7 to 3-1 (.750 improvement) (Hulett played a sub-varsity schedule in 1981)

Kemmerer, 1923-24, from 1-3 to 5-0 (.750 improvement) (1923 was Kemmerer’s first year)

Lander, 1926-27, from 2-6 to 7-0 (.75o improvement)

Pavillion, 1959-60, from 1-7 to 7-1 (.750 improvement)

Thermopolis, 1989-90, from 2-6 to 11-0 (.75o improvement)

Devolvement

Cokeville, 1974-75, from 9-0-1 to 0-8 (.950 decrease)

Mountain View, 1971-72, from 7-0-1 to 0-9 (.938 decrease)

Lander, 1927-28, from 7-0 to 0-5-1 (.917 decrease)

Midwest, 1991-92, from 10-1 to 0-8 (.909 decrease)

Saratoga, 1982-83, from 9-1 to 0-8 (.900 decrease)

Burns, 1983-84, from 8-1 to 0-7 (.889 decrease)

Byron, 1976-77, from 8-1 to 0-7 (.889 decrease)

St. Mary’s, 1946-47, from 4-0 to 1-8 (.889 decrease)

Guernsey-Sunrise, 2009-10, from 9-0 to 1-8 (.889 decrease)

Kemmerer, 1932-33, from 8-1 to 0-9 (.889 decrease)

Rawlins, 1999-2000, from 9-0 to 1-8 (.889 decrease)

Deaver-Frannie, 1971-72, from 9-0 to 1-7 (.875 decrease)

Meeteetse, 1993-94, from 9-0 to 1-7 (.875 decrease)

Ten Sleep, 1939-40, from 6-1 to 0-6 (.857 decrease)

Basin, 1939-40, from 5-1 to 0-6 (.833 decrease)

Pine Bluffs, 1944-45, from 4-1 to 0-4 (.800 decrease)

Riverton, 2004-05, from 8-2 to 0-8 (.800 decrease)

Sheridan, 1946-47, from 8-0-2 to 1-8 (.789 decrease)

Big Horn, 1968-69, from 7-2 to 0-7 (.778 decrease)

Cokeville, 1969-70, from 8-0 to 2-7 (.778 decrease)

Greybull, 1996-97, from 7-2 to 0-7 (.778 decrease)

Laramie, 1979-80, from 8-1 to 1-8 (.778 decrease)

Natrona, 1985-87, from 10-0 to 2-7 (.778 decrease)

Wheatland, 1966-67, from 8-1 to 1-8 (.778 decrease)

Worland, 1997-98, from 7-2 to 0-8 (.778 decrease)

Greybull, 1977-78, from 8-1 to 1-7 (.764 decrease)

Cody, 1987-88, from 6-2 to 0-8 (.750 decrease)

Hulett, 1961-62, from 7-0 to 2-6 (.750 decrease)

Jackson, 2007-08, from 11-0 to 2-6 (.750 decrease)

Manville, 1947-48, from 6-0 to 1-3 (.750 decrease)

Powell, 1923-24, from 8-0 to 1-4-1 (.750 decrease)

Southeast, 1980-81, from 9-0 to 2-6 (.750 decrease)

–patrick