Class 1A 11-man preview: Big cats and small fries

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With two clear favorites — one in each conference — Class 1A 11-man seems to have all the drama of a second-grade school play. But we’ve often seen that the more predictable small-school football appears, the less predictable it actually is. Will that be the case in 2014?

Four questions to answer

Is this the year Lusk finally breaks through to win a state championship? For the Tigers’ sake, let’s hope so. No team in the state has won as many games as Lusk has the past four years (36) without winning at least one state championship. The Tigers have done everything right — except win in Laramie, where they’re 0-3 the past four years.

Cokeville stands in their way again, huh? Yep. The Panthers have won three championships in four years. They return four all-state players and have 11 seniors — the biggest senior class coach Todd Dayton has had in his three-plus decades with the Panthers. They haven’t lost a conference game in five years. And all indications are that they’re on track to make it Laramie again this year.

Will anyone challenge Lusk or Cokeville? Probably not. Of the 16 returning all-state players in the classification, seven either play for the Tigers or Panthers. Several squads — Southeast, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Riverside and Rocky Mountain among them — could pose threats, but Lusk and Cokeville start the year head and shoulders above the rest.

Which of the four new teams in the classification has the best chance to contend? Tongue River. Class 1A 11-man expanded from 11 to 15 teams this year, as Wyoming Indian and Saratoga came up after one year in six-man and Tongue River and Moorcroft dropped from Class 2A. Of those, Tongue River has the best chance to make the most immediate impact — the Eagles have improved incrementally since John Scott took over the program in 2012 but have yet to make the postseason.

Four players to watch

Jace Petersen, Cokeville. After missing his sophomore campaign due to injury, Petersen led Cokeville to a state title last year on his legs (746 rushing yards, 14 TDs) and his arm (790 passing yards, another 14 more TDs). A Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team pick last year, he’s also a key piece of Cokeville’s defense and will be one of the classification’s most dynamic players this year.

Derick VandeBossche, Lusk. Few players play as well both offensively and defensively as VandeBossche. Already a two-time all-state pick, he was Lusk’s leading tackler as a junior a year ago and was also a key piece of the offense, rushing for 500 yards and grabbing team highs in receptions (18) and receiving yards (199).

Jett Materi, Upton-Sundance. The Patriots’ best opportunity at a deep playoff run in the history of their three-year co-op just might be this season, thanks in big part to their dynamic running back. Materi, a two-time all-state choice, ran for more than 116 yards per game a year ago and scored 13 of the team’s 21 touchdowns.

Tucker McKim, Riverside. For the second consecutive season, McKim led Class 1A 11-man in receiving yards and catches. He’s put up better combined numbers the past two years (105 catches, 1,455 yards) than seven of the 11 TEAMS in the class the past two years. The Rebels could ride him to an upset or two and could be a darkhorse contender because of his playmaking ability.

Four key games

Riverside at Burlington, Sept. 12. Both the Rebels and Huskies are eager to prove they belong in the discussion for a home playoff game. The loser of this conference opener has a heck of a lot more difficult time to climb back into that discussion.

Cokeville at Rocky Mountain, Sept. 26. One of the Panthers’ most difficult challenges on their way to a sixth consecutive conference championship will be this road date with a Grizzlies.

Tongue River at Lingle, Oct. 17. One of the most intriguing East Conference games comes when the Eagles venture south to play the Doggers in the first meeting between the two programs — and it might be for a playoff spot.

Southeast at Lusk, Oct. 17. Tigers-Cyclones. Write it down. In ink. This is always, always, ALWAYS a big game. This game has influenced the conference championship race every season since 2009 when the schools were rejoined in Class 1A 11-man.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Lusk, Southeast, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Tongue River, Pine Bluffs, Moorcroft. West Conference: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Burlington, Shoshoni, Saratoga, Wind River, Wyoming Indian.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Lusk 21, Cokeville 16. No one can say the Tigers don’t deserve a title. This is the year the law of averages works in Lusk’s favor.

So is this finally Lusk’s year? Will Cokeville’s massive senior class get in the Tigers’ way again? Could Southeast, or Rocky Mountain, or someone else sneak in and nab the title unexpectedly? Let’s start the discussion with your thoughts….

–patrick

Class 1A six-man preview: What now?

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The best teams were hit hard by graduation. The best players are gone. In Class 1A six-man, the loss of the graduating class of 2014 has created uncertainty. In the first of our five classification previews, we look at how six-man might come together this fall:

Four questions to answer

What now? That’s the question many around six-man are asking. With the classification’s two most exciting players — Dubois’ Sterling Baker and Meeteetse’s Seth Bennett — lost to graduation, a big, gaping hole exists at the top of the classification for both individual and team accolades. Aside from the initial season in 2009, the six-man classification has never started a season with so much uncertainty.

So with all the turnover, who’s the favorite? Guernsey-Sunrise. The Vikings are the consensus favorite in six-man thanks to their bevy of returning players. Semifinalists a year ago, Guernsey will lean on back Brady Esquibel to help get the team back to Laramie for the first time since going undefeated in 2009.

What about out West? The West Conference is a complete toss-up this year — the two dominant programs last year, Meeteetse and Dubois, lost a lot to graduation, while the remaining teams in the conference (Snake River, Farson, St. Stephens and Ten Sleep) should all be vastly improved. Look for a lot more parity in the West than in the East.

Will Rock River win a game in its first varsity season? Probably more than one. The Longhorns, who have played junior-varsity ball the past two seasons, have proven that they won’t be a pushover once they make the move to varsity play. And the schedule is kind — Rock River faces two teams that went winless last season (St. Stephens and NSI) in its first two games of the season.

Four players to watch

Brady Esquibel, Guernsey-Sunrise. No returning player in six-man had more rushing yards than Esquibel’s 1,505 last year. He ran for 28 touchdowns, threw nine more and caught one, too, and was second for the Vikings in defensive points. If the Vikings are to cash in on their preseason ranking, it’ll be in big part thanks to Esquibel.

Rowan Hawk, Dubois. Hawk was a key piece of Dubois’ 2013 season, leading the team in catches and receiving yards as well as defensive points. His presence will be crucial if the Rams want to make it back to Laramie after missing out last season.

Shawn Shepperson, Meeteetse. The defending champs have a key returner in Shepperson, who led the team in defensive points a year ago. Shepperson is also Meeteetse’s leading returning rusher. His presence helps give the Longhorns experience and stability on a team that lost a lot to graduation.

Taylor Rouse, Kaycee. Six-man is a game for versatile players, and few are more versatile than Rouse. The only sophomore selected to the Class 1A six-man all-state team last year, he ran for 997 yards, threw for 645 more and had 226 receiving yards to boot. He led the Buckaroos in scoring and is also the team’s leading returning tackler.

Four key games

Guernsey-Sunrise at Kaycee, Sept. 13. It almost seems unfair to have the game that pits the two favorites for the East Conference championship in the second week of the season. But the Vikings and Buckaroos will figure out real quick if they’re going to spend the season as the one doing the chasing or the one being chased.

Meeteetse at Snake River, Sept. 13. The Longhorns’ defense of their West Conference championship starts with a road trip to Baggs to play what might be the most improved team in the classification. This game will be a key indicator for both teams early in the season.

Midwest at Kaycee, Sept. 27. If either the Oilers or Buckaroos want to make a serious run at a state championship game berth, this game will be critical. By late October, this game could decide who gets to host a playoff game and who has to hit the road.

Dubois at Meeteetse, Oct. 3. Don’t sleep on the Rams. Despite losing all-everything player Sterling Baker, Dubois has the athleticism to compete with any team in the classification — even the defending champs.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Guernsey, Kaycee, Hanna, Midwest, Rock River, Hulett, NSI. West Conference: Meeteetse, Dubois, Snake River, Farson, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Guernsey-Sunrise 54, Kaycee 40. The Vikings are pretty much everyone’s preseason pick in six-man. Those are high expectations for a team that hasn’t been to Laramie since 2009, but Guernsey is deep and talented enough to justify those ideas.

So who do you think is the favorite in a year of uncertainty? Which team has the best shot to win it all in Laramie? Who might be a surprise? Share your thoughts with a comment or five.

Next Tuesday: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick

Championship game picks: The case for 10, the picks for five

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We’ve waited all year for this weekend. So let’s get right to it:

Class 2A
Mountain View (2W, 8-3) vs. Big Horn (2E, 9-1)
Series record: First meeting.
Last meeting: First meeting.
State championships: Mountain View, 3. … Big Horn, 3.
Title game appearances: This is the ninth title game appearance for Mountain View. … This is the 12th title game appearance for Big Horn.
Title game record: Mountain View, 3-5. … Big Horn, 3-8.
How they got here: Mountain View made it to Laramie with a pair of eight-point playoff victories, beating Newcastle 20-12 in the quarterfinals and Thermopolis 14-6 in the semifinals. … Big Horn beat Lyman 52-14 and Lovell 28-19 to reach the title game.
The case for Mountain View: The Buffalos might have more individual talent than any 2A team in the state. And it’s young talent at that. Quarterback Austin Houskeeper, leading rusher Cade Covington and leading receiver Caleb Flake are all juniors. Mountain View is stacked for a title run next year; this year’s success is a not-so-unexpected result of having the talent, and now the confidence, to compete with the best.
The case for Big Horn: Few teams possess the offensive balance and the defensive opportunism the Rams do. Big Horn leads Class 2A in offensive yards per game (393.1) and turnover margin (plus-17), two important statistics in a classification of football that turns just as much on yards as it does on opportunism and consistency. The ability of Rams quarterback Connor McCafferty to take care of the ball (28 touchdowns, only two interceptions) has helped the Rams find their rhythm, especially in the playoffs.
The pick: At the beginning of the season, I picked Mountain View to beat Big Horn 12-8 in the title game. That seems like so long ago, and, in retrospect, it was little more than a lucky guess. Class 2A had more parity than any other classification in the state, and that’s shown in the playoffs. However, Big Horn has been the more consistent, more dominant team the past few weeks, and the Rams will ride that consistency to the championship. Big Horn 24, Mountain View 19.

Class 3A
Powell (1W, 11-0) vs. Douglas (1E, 10-0)
3 p.m. Friday
Series record: Powell leads 5-2.
Last meeting: Powell beat Douglas 15-14 in the 3A championship game on Nov. 11, 2011, in Laramie.
State championships: Powell, 7. … Douglas, 5.
Title game appearances: This is the eighth title game appearance for Powell. … This is the 12th title game appearance for Douglas. 
Title game record: Powell, 5-2. … Douglas, 5-6.
How they got here: Powell was efficient, beating Torrington 48-20 and Cody 26-13 to reach the championship. … Douglas beat Jackson 52-14 and handled Star Valley 32-7 to return to Laramie after a one-year absence.
The case for Powell: The Panthers returned six (!) all-state players from last year’s team, and each one of them has played even better this season — Brendon Phister, Riley Stringer and Anthony Lujan are 1-2-3 for Powell in defensive points, Hayden Cragoe has been a rock at quarterback, Cory Heny leads the team in rushing touchdowns AND interceptions, and Garrett Lynch has chipped in a little bit everywhere. But Powell has also had new stars rise to the top and give the Panthers a formidable, talented look that few teams have ever had at the 3A level. Oh, and Powell has won 26 games in a row. That should count for something.
The case for Douglas: Even with Powell’s success, Douglas may be the most dominant team in 3A this year. Douglas’ closest game this year was 17 points. The Bearcats lead 3A in total offense and they’re just a scant few yards behind Powell in total defense. And even with an offense that has led 3A in passing, Douglas also has 3A’s top leading ground gainer in Logan Barker (1,523 yards).
The pick: With all due respect to all the other schools in Class 3A, these two teams have been head and shoulders above all the other 3A teams all season long. They both play the same game: balanced offense, dominant line play, physical defense. Their offensive and defensive statistics darn near mirror each other. This championship game should live up to the billing that a game between two undefeated traditional powers brings with it. Think 2011 redux, where one big play late changes everything. Powell 20, Douglas 14. 

Class 1A six-man
Meeteetse (1W, 10-1) vs. Midwest (1E, 9-1)
10 a.m. Saturday
Series record: Midwest leads 12-6.
Last meeting: Midwest beat Meeteetse 71-30 on Sept. 8, 2012, in Meeteetse.
State championships: Meeteetse, 1. … Midwest, 2.
Title game appearances: This is the third title game appearance for Meeteetse. … This is the sixth title game appearance for Midwest.
Title game record: Meeteetse, 1-1. … Midwest, 2-3.
How they got here: Meeteetse was barely challenged in the first two rounds, beating Kaycee 65-14 and Guernsey-Sunrise 64-12. … Midwest thumped Farson 56-6 before rallying for an amazing 64-62 victory over Dubois in the semifinals.
The case for Meeteetse: What has turned the Longhorns from contender to favorite is one thing: balance. In 2012, Seth Bennett was carrying the team; in 2013, Bennett is leading the team. And that’s a huge difference. Although Bennett has still put up big numbers, throwing and passing for more than 1,000 yards apiece, he doesn’t have to do everything anymore. He has help from other talented players like Jasper Smith, Shawn Shepperson, Carter Johnson and Dalton Abarr. The Longhorns have been better, and more successful, for that balance.
The case for Midwest: The Oilers’ key to success is its depth. That’s how Midwest beat Dubois in the semifinals — when the Rams lost steam in the fourth quarter, the Oilers were still going strong. Cam Ray, Tucker Even and Kacey Gussman have combined to give Midwest a three-pronged (read: deep) attack on both offense and defense. And when they get tired, a supporting group of players can fill in and keep Midwest competitive — a formula that has led the Oilers to an undefeated season in which the only loss was a forfeit. 
The pick: Every neuron in my brain says Meeteetse is the favorite. And if you were to assign a point spread on this game, the Longhorns would have the advantage. But you can’t ignore what Midwest did last week — specifically, how it won. When you win games like that, you believe you can overcome any deficit. I’ve seen teams make runs like this before. It’s the stuff of destiny. Midwest 58, Meeteetse 54.

Class 1A 11-man
Lusk (1E, 9-0) vs. Cokeville (1W, 9-1)
1 p.m. Saturday
Series record: Cokeville leads 3-0.
Last meeting: Cokeville won 28-7 in a semifinal playoff game on Nov. 4, 2011, in Cokeville.
State championships: Lusk, 5. … Cokeville, 20.
Title game appearances: This is the 13th title game appearance for Lusk. … This is the 26th title game appearance for Cokeville.
Title game record: Lusk, 5-7. … Cokeville, 19-6.
How they got here: Lusk destroyed Riverside 68-0 and then came from behind to beat Lingle 30-21 in the semifinals. … Cokeville ran through both Upton-Sundance (56-0) and Southeast (39-7) to make it here.
The case for Lusk: Defense, defense, defense. Lusk had seven consecutive shutouts at one point this season. If that doesn’t make the case, nothing will. The Tiger defense, led by Derick and Matt VandeBossche, Martin Fitzwater, Zane Hladky and Logan Lamar, has been tough to crack. Don’t forget, it was a late pick-six by Hunter Dockery that sealed Lusk’s victory over Lingle in the semifinals. Stout and opportunistic defense creates better situations for an offense that’s just as efficient but gets overshadowed.
The case for Cokeville: The Panthers have the three Ts going for them: tradition, teamwork and Todd. Coach Todd Dayton and the Panthers are traditional small-school favorites, and they find that success by not relying on any one player. By design, no one player stands out on offense — five players have more than 280 rushing yards this season, but none more than James Teichert’s 801, and five players have more than 100 receiving yards, but none more than Braxton Delgado’s 197. That makes the Panthers tough to stop, because shutting one avenue down opens another one that’s just as reliable.
The pick: Everything points to this being a classic small-school showdown. The Panthers and Tigers have the classification’s top two offenses and top two defenses. They won their respective conferences and haven’t lost a game within the classification. This will be a good one, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lusk win, but…. Cokeville 22, Lusk 14.

Class 4A
Natrona (4, 8-3) vs. Cheyenne East (3, 9-2)
4 p.m. Saturday
Series record: Natrona leads 39-17.
Last meeting: Cheyenne East won 42-41 in triple overtime on Sept. 6 in Casper.
State championships: Natrona, 16. … Cheyenne East, 3.
Title game appearances: This is the 14th title game appearance for Natrona. … This is the seventh title game appearance for Cheyenne East.
Title game record: Natrona, 9-4. … Cheyenne East, 3-3.
How they got here: Natrona rode defense, beating Kelly Walsh 33-0 and upending previously undefeated Gillette 14-7 to make it to The War. … Cheyenne East eked out tight victories over Cheyenne Central (13-7) and Sheridan (28-27) to reach it to the championship.
The case for Natrona: If you had proposed Natrona’s 2013 season as a movie, no one would have accepted it. Too unrealistic, too unbelievable. Three overtime losses at home? And then the chance to play those same three teams in the playoffs? No way that would happen in real life. Yet here we are, and NC can do just that. The Mustangs have already avenged their OT losses to Kelly Walsh and Gillette; now, only East stands in the way of a Natrona championship and a completed redemption tour. A championship would be an unbelievable end to a beyond-belief season.
The case for Cheyenne East: The Thunderbirds have already beaten Natrona, at Casper no less. They have one of the most dynamic and exciting players in the state in junior quarterback Tevis Bartlett, who’s put up amazing numbers (1,335 rushing yards, 1,441 passing yards). They’ve been to the title game before and they know what it takes to win it. And, as if the orange and black needed this ugly reminder from a couple years back, the Thunderbirds know what it takes to beat the Mustangs in the playoffs. Did we mention that East has already beaten Natrona this year?
The pick: A big-school championship game hasn’t gone to overtime since the epic triple-overtime game between Cody and Laramie in the 1976 Class AA title game. This one might break that streak — and put an impossible end on a surreal season. Natrona 20, Cheyenne East 17, OT.

Last week: 7-3 (70 percent). This season: 245-52 (82 percent).

Each one of the title games is worth watching. So get your butt down to Laramie and do just that. If you can’t (like me), then let’s stay here and chat about it instead.

–patrick

Semifinal playoff picks: The second time around

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I think we’ve been here before.

I think we’ve played this game.

We think we know what’s coming.

And how the title will be claimed.

We’d be right to look back quickly

To deduce what lies ahead.

But circumstances change for all,

When all but the strong have fled.

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The intrigue that normally comes along for a semifinal playoff round has been all but removed from this year’s semis.

Just look at the matchups: All but one game in the Class 4A through Class 1A 11-man brackets is a rematch of a regular-season game. The one that isn’t a rematch, Big Horn-Lovell in Class 2A, is a rematch of a Zero Week scrimmage.

What’s more, of the seven repeat games, five are in the same location as the regular-season game.

If we believe the regular-season results, this weekend will be a dud. All but one of those seven regular-season games was decided by 17 points or more.

Here’s how the regular-season games between this year’s semifinal qualifiers came out, and where this week’s rematch is:

4A: Gillette 24, Natrona 23, OT, in Casper; rematch in Gillette. … Sheridan 42, Cheyenne East 21, in Sheridan; rematch in Sheridan

3A: Powell 35, Cody 0, in Powell; rematch in Powell. … Douglas 34, Star Valley 17, in Douglas; rematch in Douglas.

2A: Big Horn-Lovell, Zero Week scrimmage in Lovell; “rematch” in Lovell. … Mountain View 45, Thermopolis 13, in Thermopolis; rematch in Mountain View.

1A 11-man: Cokeville 42, Southeast 0, in Cokeville; rematch in Cokeville. … Lusk 20, Lingle 0, in Lusk; rematch in Lusk.

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One classification is conspicuous in its absence from the above list: Class 1A six-man.

In six-man, we actually have two playoff games that aren’t regular-season rematches: Guernsey-Sunrise at Meeteetse and Dubois at Midwest.

Thanks to the relatively few number of six-man schools and the numerous cross-conference games, we can get a pretty good gauge on the games themselves and who might win. However, the fact that neither team has played the other this season gives a whole lot more intrigue to this week’s six-man games, intrigue not present in any other classification.

That doesn’t mean these teams don’t know each other. Guernsey-Sunrise and Meeteetse faced each other in last year’s quarterfinals, with Meeteetse escaping with a two-point victory; Dubois and Midwest played in last year’s semifinals, and the Rams won on their way to the state championship.

One of the things I love about the quarterfinals in all classifications is how the cross-bracketing of playoffs gives us some unique matchups. Sometimes that carries over to the semifinals, sometimes it doesn’t. This year, the only place where it did was six-man, and that makes this year’s small-school bracket that much more interesting — especially in a game that can turn so quickly and points can pile up so fast as six-man.

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Now, the picks. As usual, the team I’m picking to win is in bold, and the team that can use my picks as motivation is in regular type:

Friday
Class 4A
(4) Natrona at (1) Gillette: The first game between these two squads was a classic, as the Camels barely slipped by the Mustangs in overtime. But get this: The Camels have won 22 consecutive home playoff games, a streak dating back to a loss in the 1997 title game. Gillette does not lose home playoff games. But if anyone can play with Gillette, it’s NC — the regular season showed us that.
(3) Cheyenne East at (2) Sheridan: Of all the regular-season blowout rematches, I think this is the one with the most potential to swing the other way. East’s worst game of the year came at Sheridan, and Sheridan’s best game of the year just might have been against East. That 42-21 score was accurate for that night, but might not be an accurate reflection of how closely matched these teams really are. The trouble for East is that Sheridan has been efficient all season long, and Don Julian’s teams always seem to play better in the postseason.

Class 3A
(3W) Cody at (1W) Powell: Weird things happen in playoff games, and weird things happen in rivalry games. Put them together? Uh-oh. Powell can’t overlook Cody, even though the Panthers beat the Broncs soundly in the regular season. But the obvious pick is the Panthers and for the continuation of their 25-game winning streak.
(2W) Star Valley at (1E) Douglas: I think everyone had the Bearcats pegged as the preseason East champs. But I’m not sure anyone was ready for the efficiency that Douglas has used to tear through its opponents. One of those victims was the Braves… and unless something unusual happens, Douglas is on track to make it to the title game for the sixth time in eight years.

Class 2A
(2E) Big Horn at (1W) Lovell: Lovell is two things: undefeated and fortunate. Every close game the Bulldogs have been in, they’ve won: 32-26 over Lyman, 22-12 over Mountain View, 28-20 over Greybull, 33-27 over Thermopolis, and 28-18 in fourth-quarter come-from-behind fashion last week against Wheatland. How much good fortune can one team have before it runs out? It’ll be close, but I say the Rams get their revenge for the 2012 semis as the law of averages catches up with Lovell.
(4W) Thermopolis at (2W) Mountain View: I think the Bobcats just want people to keep doubting them. They play their best in those circumstances. Thermop proved it can play with, and beat, anyone last week when it knocked off East top seed Burns. Mountain View will be just as tough. I like the Buffalos in the Bridger Valley, but I think the Bobcats are confident and could make this a close one.

Class 1A 11-man
(2E) Southeast at (1W) Cokeville: I think Southeast is better than it was when it played, and lost 42-0 to, Cokeville early in the regular season. But 42 points better? I’m not so sure. That, and Cokeville has been straight demoralizing teams — since losing in Week 1 to Mountain View, the Panthers have won every game by at least 37 points.
(3E) Lingle at (1E) Lusk: The Tigers beat the Doggers 20-0 a few weeks ago, the second of seven consecutive shutouts by Lusk. Read that again: seven consecutive shutouts. Lusk doesn’t need a shutout to move on to Laramie, but the Tigers’ defense has been playing exceptionally well all season long and that should continue in the semis.

Class 1A six-man
(2E) Guernsey-Sunrise at (1W) Meeteetse: The Vikings have been playing solidly all season long, and they know they can play with the Longhorns. Remember, these two teams met in last year’s quarterfinals and Meeteetse won 50-48. But the top-ranked Longhorns are top-ranked for a reason, and they should make it to a state title game for the first time since 1993, even though I think the Vikings will score their fair share of points.
(2W) Dubois at (1E) Midwest: I may be barred for life from Oiler Field after this pick — going against my hometown Oilers at home in the playoffs. Midwest has the talent and the confidence to win this, but Dubois does too. And where Dubois has the edge is experience: Dubois has beaten Midwest two years in a row in the six-man semifinals to make it to Laramie, and Midwest, despite reaching the semis in 2009, 2011 and 2012, still has yet to make it to Laramie. Nothing would make me happier, though, than to see the Oilers prove me wrong….

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 19-1 (95 percent). This season: 238-49 (83 percent).

A step away from the title game, we can easily overlook just how much the teams that are remaining have overcome to even make it here. A trip to the semifinals is no small feat. The semifinals are never the goal, of course, but only five of the 20 remaining teams will win a championship. Who do you think is on their way to Laramie? Share your thoughts below.

This is a week that needs a theme song. So here’s this:

–patrick

Quarterfinal playoff picks: A long time coming

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When the postseason schedule is set, you can pretty much count in certain teams to be there.

Seven schools come into the playoffs this year with postseason qualifying streaks of 10 or more years; the players for three schools have never known a year in which their school didn’t make the postseason.

Gillette (24 consecutive years), Natrona (22) and Cokeville (21) all reached the postseason to continue impressive postseason qualifying streaks. Southeast (17 years), Big Horn (15), Douglas (12), and Cheyenne Central (10) have all qualified for more than a decade straight, too.

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Missing out: Some teams not in the bracket this year either continued or broke some long streaks, too. Buffalo missed the playoffs for the first time since missing in 1998 — the Bison had qualified for 14 consecutive years — while Green River missed the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Wyoming Indian missed the playoffs for the 17th year in a row, by far the longest such active streak in the state, while Rawlins, Moorcroft, Pinedale and NSI all missed the playoffs for the fifth year in a row.

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Our house: The same four teams (Gillette, Natrona, Sheridan, Cheyenne East) are hosting in the 4A quarterfinals for the third consecutive year.

Cokeville hosts in the opening round for the 21st consecutive season; Southeast is hosting a first-round playoff game for the 17th consecutive season. Douglas (eight straight seasons) and Gillette (seven) have also been first-round hosts consistently and continue those streaks this year.

Of this year’s first-round hosts, Rocky Mountain has been the longest removed from such duties; the Grizzlies are hosting a playoff game for the first time since 2002. This is also Rocky’s first playoff game on its new field in Cowley.

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Welcome back: Of the 40 teams in the playoffs, Jackson breaks the longest playoff drought; the Broncs are in the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Torrington, which, like Jackson, is in the 3A bracket, is in the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

The other 38 teams that qualified for this year’s postseason either qualified last year or in 2011.

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On to the picks, where I see a lot of scratch brackets happening. Can it really be that straightforward? Projected winners in bold:

Class 4A
(8) Evanston at (1) Gillette: The Camels are rolling right now; last week’s victory over East helped prove that to everyone. Rematch of a 2012 quarterfinal playoff game.
(5) Kelly Walsh at (4) Natrona: No doubt KW was fortunate to win the Oil Bowl. It will take even more of that kind of good fortune to beat the Mustangs in the playoffs. First playoff meeting since 2006; that year, NC lost in the regular season and won in the playoffs.
(7) Laramie at (2) Sheridan: The Broncs have been lost in the shuffle a bit this year since losing the Energy Bowl. But they’ll come out firing, especially against a Plainsmen team that they now know they can’t overlook. First playoff meeting since 2000.
(6) Cheyenne Central at (3) Cheyenne East: These intra-city rivals are meeting for the fourth time in two years. That hasn’t happened since back in the days when they played each other twice a year. That said, East has won all three games the past three years. Rematch of a 2012 quarterfinal playoff game.

Class 3A
(4E) Torrington at (1W) Powell: The Panthers were silly if they didn’t book their hotel rooms for Laramie two weeks from now back in November. First playoff meeting since the 1957 Class A title game.
(3W) Cody at (2E) Lander: The Tigers are playing well and, at home, will give the Broncs fits. Still, I like Cody on the road. First playoff meeting.
(4W) Jackson at (1E) Douglas: The Bearcats have been scary efficient in blowing through the East Conference. Jackson will be game, but it may not be much of a game. First playoff meeting since 2007 semifinals.
(3E) Riverton at (2W) Star Valley: I wondered how the Braves would respond after having so much success, but losing so much to graduation, after last year. Consider that question answered. First playoff meeting since 1998 3A title game.

Class 2A
(4E) Wheatland at (1W) Lovell: Despite this being a 1-4 game, I think the Platte County Bulldogs could put up a real fight in this game and make Lovell work for this victory. The parity in 2A this year will be evident in games like this. First game between these two programs.
(3W) Lyman at (2E) Big Horn: As far as the Rams are concerned, this was the game that should have been played a year ago in Laramie. The Eagles are a tough first-round draw and I think it’ll be close, but Big Horn has been playing really well lately. Only the second game between these programs; first came in 2011 quarterfinals.
(4W) Thermopolis at (1E) Burns: Even back in August, we knew Burns would be tough. But unbeaten? The Broncs have been impressive and have responded to every challenge so far this season. Look for that to continue. First playoff meeting.
(3E) Newcastle at (2W) Mountain View: We saw this game last year. The only difference was that it was in Newcastle. I’ll go with the home team again… but the Dogies will make it interesting. This could be the best game of the week; if I could only watch one game this week, this would be the one. Rematch of a 2012 quarterfinal game.

Class 1A 11-man
(4E) Upton-Sundance at (1W) Cokeville: Good luck, Patriots: Cokeville has NEVER lost a first-round playoff game since the playoffs expanded to eight teams in 1991. First game between these programs; Cokeville last played Upton in 2005, Sundance in 1991.
(3W) Burlington at (2E) Southeast: The Huskies played well enough to win the West Conference’s triangular playoff on Tuesday. But there’s a big difference between winning a triangular playoff and winning a playoff game. First meeting since 2008 title game.
(4W) Riverside at (1E) Lusk: The Tigers have notched six consecutive shutouts, including a 52-0 beat down of the Rebels, and are coming off a bye. Advantage Lusk. First playoff meeting since 2008.
(3E) Lingle at (2W) Rocky Mountain: The Doggers are one of only two road teams I’m picking to win this week. And it’s tough, because I love the Grizzlies and I think they’ve had a great season. Every time I think about this game, though, my gut tells me Lingle has the upper hand, even on the road. Only the second game between these programs; the first came in the 2009 quarterfinals.

Class 1A six-man
(4E) Kaycee at (1W) Meeteetse: The Longhorns have been on fire ever since they got back from Texas. No reason to think that will stop now. First playoff meeting.
(3W) Snake River at (2E) Guernsey-Sunrise: The Vikings won the most important game of their season last week, and I think that momentum will carry over to their meeting with the Rattlers. First playoff meeting and, oddly enough, only the third time they’ve ever played on the same field.
(4W) Farson at (1E) Midwest: Midwest’s only loss this season came courtesy of the Pronghorns. Sort of. Forfeits are funny like that. In this case, it means zilch. The Oilers are primed for a deep playoff run. First playoff meeting.
(3E) Hulett at (2W) Dubois: The Rams already beat the Red Devils once this season on the road. This time, Dubois has the home-field advantage AND the mental edge of prior success. First playoff meeting since the 2006 1A quarterfinals.

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 26-5 (84 percent). This season: 219-48 (82 percent).

The first round of the postseason is always a fun time — the potential for upsets, the elimination of pretend contenders, the high-stakes nature of every game. So what teams should we watch for this week? Who’s being overlooked, and who’s being looked at too much? Post your thoughts below.

–patrick

Week 8 picks: How Gillette’s undefeated season fits 4A’s conventional wisdom

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The conventional wisdom in Class 4A the past few years has been counterintuitive: A loss or two in the regular season isn’t bad.

Just look at the records of the state championship winning teams since 2005: Central in 2005 (7-4), Gillette in 2006 (11-1), East in 2007 (9-2), Gillette in 2008 (10-2), Sheridan in 2009 (11-1), Natrona in 2010 (11-1), Sheridan in 2011 (11-1).

Last year’s 12-0 Natrona team was the first big-school squad to win a state championship while going undefeated since Green River did it in 2004.

Which brings us to this year’s Class 4A race.

Of the conference championships up for grabs last week, only one remains undecided — Class 4A.

The big schools’ regular-season title remains undecided because the two teams with the best records, Gillette and Cheyenne East, weren’t on each other’s schedules until the final week of the regular season.

Gillette, at 8-0 but with scares from Cheyenne Central (16-10) and Natrona (24-23 in OT), has emerged as the favorite for the big-school championship. Cheyenne East, with its only loss in a 7-1 season an inexplicable 42-21 defeat at Sheridan, remains as the Camels’ lone challenger.

The winner Friday wins the regular-season crown.

Nice, but not the ultimate goal.

Win or lose, the Camels have home-field advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs. East can earn the same with a victory Friday, but will need some help to get the No. 2 seed if it loses.

Class 4A’s recent championship history has proven a Camel loss wouldn’t be devastating. The Camels themselves in 2006 and 2008 showed that a regular-season loss could be overcome in the playoffs. And a Gillette loss might put them on the opposite side of the bracket from the team that gave Gillette its biggest challenge this season, Natrona.

But the odd conventional wisdom falls apart in the face of this: It’s still better to be undefeated entering the playoffs than it is to enter with a loss.

Natrona in 2011 is the last big-school team since Laramie in 2000 to enter the playoffs undefeated and not win the state title — and Laramie lost the title game to an undefeated Gillette team that year.

Final summation? Nothing definitive. Both the Camels and the Thunderbirds have a great shot at winning the state title, win or lose this week for both. And while a loss or two in the regular season doesn’t hurt, an undefeated run is historically better….

And with some parity finally returning to Class 4A this year, the Camels have a fantastic chance to show such parity doesn’t really apply to them.

Now that would be some conventional wisdom everyone can understand.

Other games I’m watching: Almost all of them. Of this week’s 32 games, 23 have some kind of influence on the postseason, either in qualifying or in seeding. Only eight of the 40 playoff spots are still available, but only 12 of the 32 teams that have qualified actually know their seed. And 18 teams are going for those final eight spots. Yeah, it’s a busy week. … Both Thursday games (Riverton at Lander and Newcastle at Wheatland) are critical. Their timing is handy, though. Because of how everything else worked out, and because these two games were scheduled a day early, we’ll know the 3A East and 2A East seedings before Friday’s first snap. … I’ll be keeping a close eye on the games that help to decide who hosts in the first round and who goes on the road, especially Jackson-Star Valley, Riverton-Lander, Greybull-Lyman, Southeast-Lingle and Guernsey-Kaycee. … A lot of pride will be at stake in Moorcroft when the Wolves host Wright. Both teams are winless this year and don’t want to have that streak carry over to next year.

On to the picks. Teams I think will be winners by the time the game is done in bold:

Thursday
Class 3A
Riverton at Lander
Class 2A
Newcastle at Wheatland
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Evanston
Cheyenne South at Sheridan
Gillette at Cheyenne East
Kelly Walsh at Laramie
Rock Springs at Natrona
Class 3A
Buffalo at Rawlins
Douglas at Torrington
Jackson at Star Valley
Powell at Green River
Worland at Cody
Class 2A
Glenrock at Burns
Greybull at Lyman
Lovell at Big Piney
Mountain View at Kemmerer
Thermopolis at Pinedale
Tongue River at Big Horn
Wright at Moorcroft
Class 1A 11-man
Pine Bluffs at Upton-Sundance (at Sundance)
Riverside at Burlington
Shoshoni at Cokeville
Southeast at Lingle
Wind River at Rocky Mountain
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Wyoming Indian
Farson at Meeteetse
Hanna at Saratoga
Midwest at St. Stephens
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey-Sunrise at Kaycee
Normative Services at Hulett
Snake River at Ten Sleep
Open: Lusk.

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 27-5 (84 percent). This season: 193-43 (82 percent).

How are your school’s postseason plans shaking up? Will Week 8 influence your quarterfinal opponent? Is Week 8 your make-or-break? Or will you be ready to hang up those cleats by the end of this week’s games? Post a comment below to fill me in on what’s at stake for you in Week 8… or to make fun of my picks. Either way, it’s cool.

–patrick

Week 7 picks: Don’t count out Southeast

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Normally, Week 8 provides Wyoming football fans with the most postseason drama.

This year, though, we’ll get a lot more questions answered in Week 7.

We enter the weekend with the possibility that EVERY conference championship could be decided by the end of Friday’s games.

One conference champion has already been decided, as Lovell wrapped up the 2A West title last week with a victory and some help.

Of the remaining eight conferences, six of them can be won on Friday with nothing more than a victory. Two other conference titles can be wrapped up with the right set of circumstances.

Here’s how the conference title races break down:

4A: Gillette can win the conference title with a victory and a Cheyenne East loss.

3A East: Douglas can win the conference title with a victory; Riverton can with the title with a victory and a Lander loss.

3A West: Powell can win the conference title with a victory.

2A East: Burns can win the conference title with a victory.

2A West: Lovell has already won the conference title.

1A 11-man East: Lusk can win the conference title with a victory; Southeast can win the title with a victory and a Lingle loss.

1A 11-man West: Cokeville can with the conference title with a victory and a Shoshoni loss.

1A six-man East: Midwest can win the title with a victory.

1A six-man West: Meeteetse can win the title with a victory.

+++

Of course, all the teams highlighted here play in important games this week. Of these, though, one game keeps drawing my attention: Lusk at Southeast. This should not be a surprise to anyone… These two programs have been among the most consistent, successful programs in the state the past few years, and they played each other for the state title last season.

This year, Lusk is undefeated, coming in 6-0. And Southeast is 3-3, in danger of its first losing season since 1996.

Anyone who claims Southeast is out of the running, though, has a memory that’s much too short for my liking. All we have to do is look back to last year.

Lusk, if you’ll remember, was undefeated until losing to Southeast in the title game, while Southeast struggled to a 5-3 regular season (6-2, but with a forfeit) before catching fire in the playoffs. Remember, Lusk beat Southeast in the regular season last year, too.

Oddly enough, the 2013 season is shaping up a lot like 2012 for these two teams. Lusk’s still unbeaten; Southeast has some losses.

But to doubt Southeast is to reject every historical precedent we’ve seen.

Despite the 3-3 record, I still have the Cyclones ranked third in my Class 1A 11-man poll (behind my No. 1 Cokeville and my No. 2 Lusk). Southeast’s losses are to Burns, Cokeville and the Natrona sophomores; the Cyclones’ victories are against struggling Pine Bluffs and Wind River, but also 21-6 against an Upton-Sundance squad that I think is one of the best in the classification this year.

The Cyclones have made it to the state title game six of the past seven years. Even with the losses, and even with a .500 record — and even if the Cyclones lose to Lusk on Friday — it’s silly to count out the blue and white.

A victory against Lusk would all but give Southeast the conference crown and home-field advantage in the playoffs (although Lingle still has something to say about that).

Lusk, though, is the favorite, and I’m picking the Tigers to win. Lusk has notched five shutouts in a row entering Friday’s game. The Tigers’ demonstrated prowess on both sides of the ball should have them in great position to reach Laramie for the third time in four years.

The easy pick (and, let’s admit it, my pick) for the 1A 11-man title game is Lusk-Cokeville. The only problem with that pick is that Southeast will make the playoffs. And you never count out Southeast.

Ever.

+++

Best of the rest: All of the games involving potential conference championship clinchers are on my radar, obviously: Cody-Powell, Douglas-Riverton, Wheatland-Burns, Burlington-Cokeville, Kaycee-Midwest, Meeteetse-St. Stephens. On paper, most of them look like lopsided matchups. If more than two of these are close games, I’ll be happy. … The Wheatland-Burns game lost some of its luster when the Bulldogs lost last week, but this one can still be memorable; it means just as much in the conference championship race as we figured it might a week ago at this time. … Cheyenne South’s best chance to break its losing streak may come Friday at home against Rock Springs. The Bison end the season with a road trip to Sheridan, so it may be now or next year for South to finally pull out a victory. … Torrington hasn’t beaten Buffalo since 1992. That streak may end this week, after 21 years and nine games between them. … The messy 2A West gets even messier this week; two of the three teams tied for second (Mountain View and Thermopolis) play each other in what might be the most important game of the season for both teams. I already fear figuring out the playoff scenarios for that conference next week. … Speaking of messy playoff races, a postseason spot may be on the line Saturday when Saratoga hits the road to face Guernsey. That game has been the toughest of the week to pick. The 1A six-man East Conference has been fun to follow this year; it’ll be interesting to see if that regular-season big-game gamut pays off in the postseason for East squads.

Quick look back at last week: Why isn’t Jackson’s 64-48 victory over Green River getting more attention? I mean, 112 combined points? That’s the most in one 11-man game since 1930 (when Cheyenne High combined with University Prep for 119 points, as the Indians unceremoniously dumped the Buckaroos 113-6). And it’s tied for the fifth-most EVER in state history in an 11-man game. Has six-man desensitized us to basketball-worthy scores? Anyway…

On to the Week 7 picks. Teams I think will win are in bold, because if I underlined them you’d try to click on them.

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Kelly Walsh
Evanston at Cheyenne East
Laramie at Gillette
Natrona at Sheridan
Rock Springs at Cheyenne South
Class 3A
Cody at Powell
Douglas at Riverton
Green River at Star Valley
Jackson at Worland
Lander at Rawlins
Torrington at Buffalo
Class 2A
Big Piney at Greybull
Glenrock at Wright
Kemmerer at Lovell
Lyman at Pinedale
Moorcroft at Big Horn
Mountain View at Thermopolis
Tongue River at Newcastle
Wheatland at Burns
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Cokeville
Lingle at Upton-Sundance (at Upton)
Lusk at Southeast
Rocky Mountain at Shoshoni
Wind River at Riverside
Class 1A six-man
Hulett at Hanna
Kaycee at Midwest
Meeteetse at St. Stephens
Wyoming Indian at Farson
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Snake River
Saratoga at Guernsey-Sunrise
Ten Sleep at Normative Services
Interclass
Natrona sophs at Pine Bluffs

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 24-8 (75 percent). This season: 166-38 (81 percent).

So… You know how we do this by now. You disagree with my picks and tell me why I’m wrong, I soberly nod in agreement, everybody happy! Do your part in this interaction and comment below.

–patrick

Week 6 picks: A love letter to Class 2A

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Normally, by this point in the season, a classification has established its hierarchy — we have a good idea of who’s at the top of the classification, who’s at the bottom and who’s in the middle.

Not in Class 2A this year.

Nine schools have winning records. Not included in that list are Newcastle and Greybull — Newcastle’s in-state losses have come to schools that are a combined 14-1, while Greybull’s losses have come to schools a combined 16-4.

In a classification where simply qualifying for the playoffs is a challenge, every game is critical.

This week, Class 2A has four standout games: Big Horn at Wheatland and Newcastle at Glenrock in the East, and Lyman at Mountain View and Thermopolis at Lovell in the West.

Every single one of those games could be the game that makes or breaks a season. Can former No. 1 Big Horn give streaking Wheatland its first loss? Will Newcastle fall further behind in the East race, or keep pace by beating the suddenly vulnerable Herders? Will Mountain View’s sudden losing streak continue against its Bridger Valley rival? Can Thermopolis come back from its first loss to beat the undefeated Bulldogs?

All four games have huge postseason implications.

The other four games in 2A could turn out to be just as big, too. But that’s what makes the classification a blast to follow this season.

This year’s 2A parity reminds me a lot of one of my favorite seasons: Class 2A in 2007. That year, every playoff game was decided by eight points or fewer, and Riverside won the state championship by winning games by two points, one point and one point.

I expect something similar in the 2A playoffs this year.

Predictability is boring. Class 2A is anything but.

Other things to watch this week: This may be the most unpredictable week of the year. I struggled with several choices. Look for lots of close games this week. … Star Valley-Cody will be interesting to watch. A Cody victory could add fuel to an already heated rivalry next week, but that also means the Broncs need to be careful of looking ahead. The Braves are way too good for anyone to look past. … Speaking of Lincoln County vs. the BHB, how about the long trip Cokeville has to make to Cowley to play Rocky Mountain? The Panthers and Grizzles are part of a three-way logjam atop the 1A 11-man West standings, and this game will help break it up. … I’ve been really impressed with Torrington’s improvement this year. I’m curious to see how the Trailblazers match up against last year’s 3A East champs, Riverton. … The most underrated game of the week might be Wyoming Indian-Snake River. Neither team has proven contender-worthy yet, but both teams are good enough to take seriously come playoff time. … Seems like kind of an off week in 4A, but don’t overlook Sheridan-Central. How will the Broncs bounce back after a tough loss, and can they rebound on the road against a game Indian squad? … Two teams are guaranteed to pick up their first victories of the season, as two games (Wind River-Burlington and Hanna-NSI) feature winless squads facing off against each other.

Here are this week’s picks. Projected winners in bold; projected spoilers in regular type:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Laramie
Cheyenne South at Natrona
Gillette at Rock Springs
Kelly Walsh at Evanston
Sheridan at Cheyenne Central
Class 3A
Buffalo at Lander
Green River at Jackson
Rawlins at Douglas
Star Valley at Cody
Torrington at Riverton
Worland at Powell
Class 2A
Big Horn at Wheatland
Burns at Moorcroft
Newcastle at Glenrock
Lyman at Mountain View
Pinedale at Big Piney
Thermopolis at Lovell
Wright at Tongue River
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Wind River
Cokeville at Rocky Mountain
Pine Bluffs at Lingle
Riverside at Shoshoni
Upton-Sundance at Lusk
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey-Sunrise at Midwest
Hulett at Saratoga
St. Stephens at Dubois
Snake River at Wyoming Indian
Ten Sleep at Farson
Saturday
Class 2A
Greybull at Kemmerer
Class 1A six-man
Hanna at Normative Services
Meeteetse at Kaycee
Interclass
Southeast at Natrona sophs

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 26-5 (84 percent). This season: 142-30 (83 percent).

Now I call on you. What games draw your interest this week? What picks do you disagree with? Post a comment below and we can talk, and then later this week we can stop the talk and actually play, which is way better.

–patrick

Week 5 picks: Why neither Gillette nor Sheridan wants to host the Energy Bowl

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Only two undefeated teams remain in Class 4A football.

They play each other on Friday.

The stakes are bigger than just staying undefeated. Then again, the Energy Bowl always has been more than just another game on the schedule.

When Gillette and Sheridan face off at Camel Stadium on Friday night, the two teams will pick up a rivalry that’s been going strong every year since 1970.

Together, the two Northeast corner rivals have won nearly half of the big-school championships in the past two-plus decades (11 of 23). Of those, Sheridan has seven; Gillette has four.

Often, one team has had to go through the other to find postseason success. Especially the past two years, the rivalry has been accentuated. Gillette and Sheridan have played each other in the state semifinals each of the past two years. In each case, the team that won the Energy Bowl won the playoff rematch.

While the series’ stakes are still high, the regular-season series has taken an odd turn: The past four years, the road team has won the Energy Bowl. This is the longest such streak in series history. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gillette coach Vic Wilkerson call up Sheridan coach Don Julian and ask to move the game to Sheridan… and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Julian say no.

Usually, we can attribute streaks like that to weird mixes of coincidence and timing. This year, though, with the stakes as high as ever (or at least as high as they can get in the regular season), both teams would love any advantage they can find.

When the game is over, only one undefeated team will remain in Class 4A. While we’ve seen 4A teams overcome a rivalry loss in the regular season to win a state title — Gillette won the state title in 2008 after losing the Energy Bowl — the recent success of both these programs forces some extra meaning onto this game.

And even though “Rivalry Week” is in full force in 4A with both the Oil Bowl and Capital Bowl, the Energy Bowl will be the one everyone in 4A will concentrate on this week.

No matter where it’s played.

+++++

Powell will play against more than just Star Valley on Friday; the Panthers will also play against history. Strange things happen when Powell comes to Afton to play Star Valley. I wrote about this phenomenon a couple years ago; Star Valley almost always beats Powell in Afton, no matter the circumstances. All-time, Powell is 2-15 in Afton, winning only in 1986 and 1999.

The state’s longest active winning streak may have its toughest test to date, and it may have little to do with the home team itself.

+++++

Other games I’d be interested in watching, if I had the chance: The best game in the state might be the six-man showdown between Saratoga and Kaycee. In a tight, competitive East Conference, every victory is valuable, and none more than this one. … BTW, the dividing line in six-man is pretty clear here: The East is 7-0 against the bottom five teams in the West (not counting Midwest’s forfeit loss to Farson) and is 0-3 against Meeteetse and Dubois. … To be a true contender, you’ve gotta win the big ones. Upton-Sundance finds out this week if it’s a contender, as the Patriots travel to Yoder to play Southeast. … The same goes for undefeated Thermopolis, which has its biggest test of the season on Friday when it goes south to face defending 2A champ Lyman. Thermop’s four victories this year are over teams that are a combined 2-14. … Let’s not forget Central-East and Natrona-Kelly Walsh in 4A. Two things tend to happen in rivalry games: weird stuff and blowouts. In-between rarely happens. Get ready for something.

My picks are below, with the teams I have determined to be the most likely teams to win their respective games represented in the boldface type:

Thursday
Class 1A 11-man
Shoshoni at Wind River
Interclass
Lingle at Natrona JV
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Cheyenne Central (moved from East)
Evanston at Rock Springs
Laramie at Cheyenne South
Kelly Walsh at Natrona
Sheridan at Gillette
Class 3A
Cody at Jackson
Lander at Douglas
Powell at Star Valley
Rawlins at Torrington
Riverton at Buffalo
Worland at Green River
Class 2A
Big Horn at Glenrock
Kemmerer at Big Piney
Lovell at Greybull
Mountain View at Pinedale
Newcastle at Wright
Thermopolis at Lyman
Tongue River at Burns
Wheatland at Moorcroft
Class 1A 11-man
Lusk at Pine Bluffs
Riverside at Cokeville
Rocky Mountain at Burlington
Upton-Sundance at Southeast
Class 1A six-man
Farson at St. Stephens
Kaycee at Saratoga
Snake River at Hanna
Wyoming Indian at Meeteetse
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Ten Sleep
Midwest at Hulett
Normative Services at Guernsey-Sunrise

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 28-4 (88 percent). This season: 116-25 (82 percent).

We’re more than halfway through the regular season. What are you seeing that’s drawing your interest? What game do you want to watch this week? Post some thoughts below and let’s talk about it for a while.

–patrick

Week 4 picks: Mountain View, Lovell and the 2A West’s status quo

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The Class 2A West Conference conversation has been dominated by two programs the past three years: Lovell and Lyman.

Mountain View has a chance to end that this week.

The Buffalos host Lovell on Friday in a game that, if the Buffalos have their way, will help usher in a new era for the 2A West hierarchy — or, if the Bulldogs have their way, a game that will help Lovell maintain the status quo it has helped establish.

Lovell is the known commodity. The Bulldogs won the 2A title in 2011, finished second to Lyman and 2012 and also tied for the conference crown in 2010 before falling to eventual state champ Thermopolis in the semifinals that year. Last week, the Bulldogs won their biggest game of the season — so far — by beating Lyman 32-26 in Lovell.

In the past couple years, that victory, even in Week 3, would have all but cemented a conference championship and home-field advantage in the playoffs.

But 2013 is different in the 2A West this year, thanks in large part to Mountain View.

The Buffs are the rising contenders. Last year, Mountain View notched its first winning season since 2006. With the bulk of their players returning, the Buffalos were the Class 2A preseason No. 1 — even with Lyman and Lovell lurking, two schools anchored by the support of three years of dominance.

This week, Lovell and Mountain View both come in on three-game winning streaks; together, they represent two-thirds of the undefeated teams in 2A West Conference play (surprising Thermopolis is also 2-0 in the conference standings).

One way or another, this game will either preserve or destroy the 2A West as we’ve come to know it the past three years.

+++

The (unfortunate) record watch: If Tongue River loses today to Moorcroft, the Eagles will tie the state record for the longest home losing streak. Tongue River hasn’t won at home since beating Lusk 13-12 in the regular-season finale in 2007. Since then, the Eagles have lost 17 straight in Dayton, including two so far this season. TR has won three games in that span, but they’ve all been road victories. The existing state record of 18 consecutive home losses is held by two teams — Lander (1967-71) and Newcastle (1999-2004). Meanwhile, Saratoga holds the state home winless streak at 19, going 0-18-1 from 1965-70. More information about home and road winning and losing streaks is available here.

+++

Other stuff I’m watching: In the 2A East, Burns-Newcastle pits another up-and-coming team against an established contender. It will be interesting to see if the Broncs can keep rolling. … Two of the best six-man teams in the state so far this year meet Friday when Meeteetse faces Dubois. Can the defending champ Rams stop the Longhorns’ high-powered offense? … Jackson has been one of the most intriguing teams in the state so far this year. We’ll see how legit the Broncs are after they face the Powell steamroller up in Park County, though. … Something amazing I discovered this week: Buffalo hasn’t started a season 0-4 since 1948. The Bison have to beat Douglas this week to avoid starting the 2013 season 0-4.

+++

Here are my picks for the week, with the teams I think will win in bold:

Thursday
Interclass
Billings Senior, Mont., JV at Rocky Mountain
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Kelly Walsh
Cheyenne South at Gillette
Laramie at Cheyenne Central
Natrona at Evanston
Rock Springs at Sheridan
Class 3A
Douglas at Buffalo
Green River at Cody
Jackson at Powell
Riverton at Rawlins
Star Valley at Worland
Torrington at Lander
Class 2A
Big Piney at Lyman
Burns at Newcastle
Glenrock at Wheatland
Kemmerer at Thermopolis
Lovell at Mountain View
Moorcroft at Tongue River
Pinedale at Greybull
Wright at Big Horn
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Upton-Sundance (at Sundance)
Lusk at Riverside
Pine Bluffs at Shoshoni
Wind River at Southeast
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey-Sunrise at Farson
Meeteetse at Dubois
Midwest at Hanna
St. Stephens at Snake River
Saratoga at Normative Services
Ten Sleep at Wyoming Indian
Saturday
Class 1A 11-man
Cokeville at Lingle
Class 1A six-man
Hulett at Kaycee

For a full schedule including kick times, check out the 2013 schedule and results page.

Last week: 26-5 (84 percent). This season: 88-21 (81 percent).

The Week 4 slate has what appear to be a lot of straightforward games. But we all know it’s not that easy (especially in 2A). Who’s ready to pull an upset this week? Who am I overlooking? Post your thoughts below and let’s talk.

–patrick