Category Archives: Picks

The 2011 Class 4A playoffs brought a unique twist for Wyoming’s big schools.

For the first time in big-school history, the same four teams — Gillette, Cheyenne East, Sheridan and Natrona — reached the playoff’s semifinal round as the previous year.

The feat was unprecedented in the big school ranks and extremely rare outside the big-school division. In fact, only three other times in Wyoming’s football history have the same four teams reached the semifinals.

But then it happened again in 2012. And again in 2013. And again in 2014.

Let me translate that: The same four programs have been in the 4A semifinals for five consecutive years.

Not only is such a run unprecedented, it’s unfathomable given the state’s high school football history.

The first two occurrences of repeat semifinalists were more anomalistic than trendsetting: Burlington, Big Horn, Hulett and Meeteetse reached the Class 1A nine-man semifinals in both 1993 and 1994, while Star Valley, Riverton, Torrington and Lander made the Class 3A semifinals consecutively in 1994 and 1995.

Probably the closest parallel in Wyoming to the 4A string we’re seeing now came from 2001-03, when Mountain View, Lovell, Big Piney and Glenrock all reached the Class 3A semis for three consecutive years.

Those three occurrences — 1A nine-man in 1993-94, 3A in 1994-95 and 3A in 2001-03 — are the only times Wyoming had repeat semifinalists until the foursome of Cheyenne East, Gillette, Sheridan and Natrona put their recent lock on the 4A semifinals.

Those “Big Four” have had their way in the playoffs, too. Of the 20 first-round playoff games the past five years, only three finished within a possession — East 28, Evanston 27 in 2011; East 13, Central 7 in 2013; and Sheridan 10, Kelly Walsh 3 in 2010. Last year’s 4A quarterfinal games were decided by 21, 30, 43 and 45 points, an average margin of victory of almost 35 points.

This week, 4A’s “Big Four” play each other; it’s the only time this week that these four schools play against one another in the same week. East will be at Sheridan, while Gillette will be at Natrona.

So far this season, East, Gillette, Sheridan and Natrona are 10-0 against the other six teams in 4A.

Anomaly, trend, or the result of elite programs separating themselves from the pack.

Call it what you will.

The same four teams, five years in a row? Maybe six, if the same four teams survive and advance again? Maybe more?

Wyoming has never had a run like that. And may never have one like it again.

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Other games to watch this week:

You guys: Cokeville-Shoshoni. For reals. I could write all day about this series. I nearly did. Cokeville is 23-1 all-time in this series, with that one Shoshoni W coming in 1997. But this Friday might be the time the Wranglers finally break that curse. I’m still taking Cokeville, because Cokeville, but if Shoshoni can pull this one off, I’ll be sure to shoot off some fireworks on the Wranglers’ behalf. …

Speaking of Wranglers, when did Lovell-Pinedale get this interesting? Pinedale has been one of the most pleasant surprises of 2015 — they’re 2-0 for just the second time since 1991 — while Lovell bounced back big last week with its victory against Big Piney. I’m taking Lovell, but Pinedale’s success has my attention. …

Central-Rock Springs could be a season-maker for one of those squads. The Tigers already have as many victories as the past two years combined, while Central has hung tough with quality competition and knocked off rival South. Both have shown flashes of greatness. …

Pine Bluffs might be better than we think. This week’s game in Yoder against Southeast will be telling. …

The big question of the week: Will Riverside actually step foot on a field? The Rebels forfeited in Week 1 and were forfeited to in Week 2. Unprecedented. …

A host of other games stick out as potential nailbiters: Evanston-Laramie, Kelly Walsh-Cheyenne South, Buffalo-Worland, Dubois-Farson, Hulett-NSI. Curious to see how those come out.

On to the picks, in which I choose the teams I think will win the upcoming games for the week and denote those teams by putting their school’s name in bold. Like you didn’t know that. Pffft.

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Rock Springs
Cheyenne East at Sheridan
Evanston at Laramie
Gillette at Natrona
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne South
Class 3A
Buffalo at Worland
Douglas at Star Valley
Jackson at Rawlins
Lander at Cody
Powell at Riverton
Torrington at Green River
Class 2A
Burns at Mountain View
Glenrock at Big Horn
Greybull at Big Piney
Kemmerer at Lyman
Lovell at Pinedale
Newcastle at Wheatland
Thermopolis at Wright
Class 1A 11-man
Cokeville at Shoshoni
Lusk at Moorcroft
Pine Bluffs at Southeast
Riverside at Wind River
Saratoga at Rocky Mountain
Upton-Sundance at Tongue River
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Farson
Guernsey-Sunrise at Midwest
Hanna at St. Stephens
Rock River at Kaycee
Interstate
Lingle at Mitchell, Neb.
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Hulett at NSI
Meeteetse at Ten Sleep
Interclass
Natrona sophs at Snake River

For the second week in a row, Burlington will forfeit, and Wyoming Indian picks up the victory the Huskies gave up. The Chiefs’ losing streak is now officially over at 14 games.

For a full schedule including start times, click here.

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Everyone’s favorite pair of adorable brothers, Tad and Homer, made their picks as well:

Tad: Evanston over Laramie; Douglas over Star Valley; Torrington over Green River; Newcastle over Wheatland; Thermopolis over Wright; Riverside over Wind River; Upton-Sundance over Tongue River; Guernsey-Sunrise over Midwest; Hanna over St. Stephens; Hulett over Normative Services.

Homer: Laramie over Evanston; Star Valley over Douglas; Green River over Torrington; Wheatland over Newcastle; Wright over Thermopolis; Wind River over Riverside; Tongue River over Upton-Sundance; Midwest over Guernsey-Sunrise; St. Stephens over Hanna; Normative Services over Hulett.

Both: Cheyenne Central over Rock Springs; Sheridan over Cheyenne East; Natrona over Gillette; Kelly Walsh over Cheyenne South; Worland over Buffalo; Jackson over Rawlins; Cody over Lander; Powell over Riverton; Mountain View over Burns; Big Horn over Glenrock; Greybull over Big Piney; Kemmerer over Lyman; Lovell over Pinedale; Cokeville over Shoshoni; Lusk over Moorcroft; Southeast over Pine Bluffs; Rocky Mountain over Saratoga; Dubois over Farson; Ten Sleep over Meeteetse; Kaycee over Rock River; Lingle over Mitchell, Neb.; Snake River over Natrona sophs.

The records
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Rock Springs (Central 45-17-4 overall, Central 24-10-2 at this location)
Cheyenne East at Sheridan (Sheridan 24-12 overall, Sheridan 17-5 at this location)
Evanston at Laramie (Evanston 13-12 overall, Laramie 7-5 at this location)
Gillette at Natrona (Natrona 40-18 overall, Natrona 17-11 at this location)
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne South (Kelly Walsh 4-0 overall, Kelly Walsh 2-0 at this location)
Class 3A
Buffalo at Worland (Worland 15-13 overall, Worland 7-6 at this location)
Douglas at Star Valley (Douglas 9-2 overall, Star Valley 2-1 at this location)
Jackson at Rawlins (Jackson 7-2 overall, Jackson 2-1 at this location)
Lander at Cody (Cody 50-16-3 overall, Cody 25-7-2 at this location)
Powell at Riverton (Powell 39-31-3 overall, Powell 18-17-2 at this location)
Torrington at Green River (Torrington 2-1 overall, first at this location)
Class 2A
Burns at Mountain View (Mountain View 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Glenrock at Big Horn (Big Horn 5-3 overall, Big Horn 2-0 at this location)
Greybull at Big Piney (Greybull 7-5 overall, Greybull 3-2 at this location)
Kemmerer at Lyman (Kemmerer 23-14 overall, Kemmerer 10-8 at this location)
Lovell at Pinedale (Lovell 9-1 overall, Lovell 5-1 at this location)
Newcastle at Wheatland (Newcastle 23-20-2 overall, tie 10-10-2 at this location)
Thermopolis at Wright (Thermopolis 3-2 overall, tie 1-1 at this location)
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Wyoming Indian (Burlington 17-4 overall, Burlington 7-3 at this location) (Wyoming Indian won this week by forfeit, records represent pre-forfeit status)
Cokeville at Shoshoni (Cokeville 23-1 overall, Cokeville 7-1 at this location)
Lusk at Moorcroft (Lusk 9-3 overall, Lusk 4-2 at this location)
Pine Bluffs at Southeast (Southeast 28-11 overall, Southeast 13-6 at this location)
Riverside at Wind River (Riverside 16-9 overall, tie 5-5 at this location)
Saratoga at Rocky Mountain (Rocky Mountain 6-1 overall, tie 1-1 at this location)
Upton-Sundance at Tongue River (Upton-Sundance 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Farson (Dubois 6-1 overall, Dubois 3-0 at this location)
Guernsey-Sunrise at Midwest (Guernsey-Sunrise 10-8 overall, tie 5-5 at this location)
Hanna at St. Stephens (Hanna 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Hulett at NSI (Hulett 7-5 overall, NSI 4-1 at this location)
Meeteetse at Ten Sleep (Ten Sleep 28-24-1 overall, Ten Sleep 16-13 at this location)
Rock River at Kaycee (Kaycee 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Interstate
Lingle at Mitchell, Neb. (Lingle 2-0 overall, Lingle 1-0 at this location)

Weekly reminder: Tad picks the series leader; Homer picks the location leader; when a series is tied, both Tad and Homer pick the home team. And they always pick a varsity team over a sub-varsity team.

Last week’s records: Patrick, 25-7 (78 percent); Tad, 19-13 (59 percent); Homer, 16-16 (50 percent).

Season records: Patrick, 59-15 (80 percent); Tad, 49-27 (64 percent); Homer, 40-34 (54 percent).

I think Week 3 may be one of the most difficult weeks of the season to predict. Lots of evenly matched teams will play this week, and we may look back on this week in about a month and realize a ton of key games were played on Sept. 18. So who’s ready to break through and be seen on a statewide stage? Post a comment and let’s talk it through.

–patrick

The most overlooked game of Week 2 — heck, maybe the most overlooked game of the season — will probably be played Friday night in Pavillion.

Logically, the game between Wind River and Wyoming Indian won’t, and shouldn’t, get a lot of statewide attention. After all, no other Wyoming teams lost their Week 1 games by as many points as the Chiefs and Cougars did.

Wyoming Indian lost its season opener to Moorcroft 61-0. Wind River lost its season opener to Upton-Sundance 67-0.

On Friday, they play each other.

The statistical anomaly initially attracted me — the teams with the two biggest losses in the state playing each other seven days later doesn’t happen often. But thinking about this game got me thinking about the feeling that exists on the losing side of a blowout, especially in a season opener.

Week 1 is the litmus test for nine months’ worth of offseason preparation. When all that effort and time results in a huge shutout loss, it can’t help but sting.

The Cougars will host the game, trying to rebound from statistically the worst loss in program history. Entering the season, Wind River had never lost a game by more than 56 points; they lost in Week 1 by 67. How much does that hurt? Consider this: The Cougars spent all offseason preparing, knowing that the Upton-Sundance game would be their gauge for 2015. First-year coach Mykah Trujillo brought enthusiasm and energy to the program. Then came three weeks of preseason practice. All that mental and physical effort, and… 67-0. Oof.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, still fight hard. But they’ve lost 13 in a row dating back to September 2013, when the program was in its lone year of six-man play. The Chiefs haven’t won an 11-man game since 2011, when they beat… Wind River. In fact, that game is WIHS’s only 11-man victory in the 2010s. The reasons for Wyoming Indian’s football struggles are complex. That doesn’t mean the losing hurts any less for the guys in the Chiefs’ locker room.

When big victories seem out of reach, little ones become so much more important. Those little victories don’t happen on the scoreboard in a game that finishes 61-0 or 67-0. They manifest themselves as trust, as confidence; they show in effort, in improvement. In the best cases, the young men who play become better men, both mentally and physically, even if the Ws aren’t as consistent as they would like them to be.

Week 2 gives both teams a chance to overcome that sting, if even for an evening, or a moment. That evening and those moments won’t mean much around the state, but for the players in those helmets, and their coaches and parents and families, this evening and those moments have the potential to last a lifetime.

That is why the game between Wind River and Wyoming Indian deserves your attention.

That is why the game of football deserves your attention.

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Some other things I’m keeping an eye on in Week 2:

Kaycee and Guernsey playing this early in the season just doesn’t feel right. This game will go a long way in deciding the 1A six-man East Conference title, and that feels more like a Week 8 responsibility than a Week 2 responsibility. …

I’m really curious to see how Star Valley and Riverton stack up against each other. They both had impressive Week 1 victories, so this game should be good for both squads to improve and gauge their potential at a 3A title run. …

Upton-Sundance at Lusk could be spectacular, maybe the best game of the week. Both teams are coming off massive victories and want to stake their claim as contenders early. …

I’m curious to see how both Greybull and Riverside respond to taking Week 1 off. Greybull draws defending 2A champ Mountain View, while Riverside gets regional rival Burlington. First-game jitters? …

Don’t forget about NSI, either, which plays its first game against Rock River after taking Week 1 off. …

Kelly Walsh had to play my top two 4A teams (Sheridan and Gillette) the first two weeks of the season. I’m interested to see what happens when the Trojans play Rock Springs — which got a big W last week against Laramie — to see if the brutal start to the season was a blessing in disguise or a suicide mission. …

Since 1991, Pinedale has gone 2-0 to start a season just once (2002). A victory against Kemmerer would make the Wranglers 2-0 to start 2015. …

Moorcroft plays its first home night game with a 7 p.m. kickoff against Tongue River. And, of course, Tongue River played its first home night game last week. …

Snake River-Meeteetse is huge. Huuuuuge. Just like Kaycee-Guernsey in the East, this game will likely affect who finishes atop the 1A six-man West.

On to this week’s picks, where the team I think will win is in bold type. A bold font only makes sense for some bold picks:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne South at Cheyenne East
Gillette at Cheyenne Central
Natrona at Laramie
Rock Springs at Kelly Walsh
Sheridan at Evanston
Class 3A
Buffalo at Powell
Cody at Douglas
Green River at Rawlins
Jackson at Lander
Star Valley at Riverton
Torrington at Worland
Class 2A
Big Horn at Lyman
Big Piney at Lovell
Burns at Newcastle
Mountain View at Greybull
Pinedale at Kemmerer
Wheatland at Thermopolis
Wright at Glenrock
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Riverside
Cokeville at Saratoga
Lingle at Pine Bluffs
Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain
Tongue River at Moorcroft
Upton-Sundance at Lusk
Wyoming Indian at Wind River
Class 1A six-man
Kaycee at Guernsey-Sunrise
NSI at Rock River
St. Stephens at Dubois
Snake River at Meeteetse
Interclass
Farson at Evanston JV
Interstate
Bayard, Neb., at Southeast
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Hanna vs. Hulett (at Midwest)
Midwest at Ten Sleep

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The resident brosephs, Tad and Homer, have their picks this week too:

Tad: Gillette over Cheyenne Central; Natrona over Laramie; Big Horn over Lyman; Newcastle over Burns; Mountain View over Greybull; Normative Services over Rock River; Bayard, Neb., over Southeast.

Homer: Cheyenne Central over Gillette; Laramie over Natrona; Lyman over Big Horn; Burns over Newcastle; Greybull over Mountain View; Rock River over Normative Services; Southeast over Bayard, Neb.

Both: Cheyenne East over Cheyenne South; Kelly Walsh over Rock Springs; Sheridan over Evanston; Powell over Buffalo; Douglas over Cody; Rawlins over Green River; Lander over Jackson; Riverton over Star Valley; Worland over Torrington; Lovell over Big Piney; Pinedale over Kemmerer; Wheatland over Thermopolis; Glenrock over Wright; Riverside over Burlington; Cokeville over Saratoga; Lingle over Pine Bluffs; Rocky Mountain over Shoshoni; Tongue River over Moorcroft; Lusk over Upton-Sundance; Wind River over Wyoming Indian; Hulett over Hanna; Guernsey-Sunrise over Kaycee; Ten Sleep over Midwest; Dubois over St. Stephens; Snake River over Meeteetse; Farson over Evanston JV.

The records
Class 4A
Cheyenne South at Cheyenne East (East 4-0 overall, East 2-0 at this location)
Gillette at Cheyenne Central (Gillette 26-24 overall, Central 17-8 at this location)
Natrona at Laramie (Natrona 48-34-1 overall, tie 18-18-1 at this location)
Rock Springs at Kelly Walsh (Kelly Walsh 15-10 overall, Kelly Walsh 7-4 at this location)
Sheridan at Evanston (Sheridan 13-2 overall, Sheridan 7-1 at this location)
Class 3A
Buffalo at Powell (Powell 20-18 overall, Powell 10-7 at this location)
Cody at Douglas (Douglas 6-1 overall, Douglas 3-0 at this location)
Green River at Rawlins (Rawlins 22-18-7 overall, Rawlins 12-9-2 at this location)
Jackson at Lander (Lander 22-13 overall, Lander 13-5 at this location)
Star Valley at Riverton (Riverton 10-4 overall, Riverton 5-0 at this location)
Torrington at Worland (Worland 8-5 overall, Worland 4-2 at this location)
Class 2A
Big Horn at Lyman (Big Horn 2-1 overall, Lyman 1-0 at this location)
Big Piney at Lovell (Lovell 8-4 overall, Lovell 5-1 at this location)
Burns at Newcastle (Newcastle 4-2 overall, Burns 2-1 at this location)
Mountain View at Greybull (Mountain View 6-3 overall, Greybull 2-1 at this location)
Pinedale at Kemmerer (Kemmerer 23-8 overall, Kemmerer 13-2 at this location)
Wheatland at Thermopolis (Wheatland 5-1 overall, Wheatland 2-1 at this location)
Wright at Glenrock (Glenrock 17-3 overall, Glenrock 8-2 at this location)
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Riverside (Riverside 14-11 overall, Riverside 6-5 at this location)
Cokeville at Saratoga (Cokeville 22-5 overall, Cokeville 10-2 at this location)
Lingle at Pine Bluffs (Lingle 39-22-2 overall, Lingle 19-9-1 at this location)
Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain (Rocky Mountain 12-8 overall, Rocky Mountain 6-3 at this location)
Tongue River at Moorcroft (Tongue River 31-21 overall, Tongue River 13-11 at this location)
Upton-Sundance at Lusk (Lusk 4-0 overall, Lusk 2-0 at this location)
Wyoming Indian at Wind River (Wind River 24-6 overall, Wind River 12-2 at this location)
Class 1A six-man
Hanna at Hulett (Hulett 6-3 overall, game will be at neutral location but Homer will go with the team listed as the official home team, in this case Hulett)
Kaycee at Guernsey-Sunrise (Guernsey-Sunrise 4-1 overall, Guernsey-Sunrise 1-0 at this location)
Midwest at Ten Sleep (Ten Sleep 10-7 overall, Ten Sleep 6-2 at this location)
NSI at Rock River (NSI 1-0 overall, first at this location)
St. Stephens at Dubois (Dubois 2-0 overall, Dubois 1-0 at this location)
Snake River at Meeteetse (Snake River 6-1 overall, Snake River 2-0 at this location)
Interstate
Bayard, Neb., at Southeast (Bay 1-0 overall, first at this location)

Weekly reminder: Tad picks the series leader; Homer picks the location leader; when a series is tied, both Tad and Homer pick the home team. New rule this week: They always pick the varsity team when it plays a sub-varsity team.

Last week’s records: Patrick, 27-5 (84 percent); Tad, 24-8 (75 percent); Homer, 18-14 (56 percent).

Season records: Patrick, 34-8 (81 percent); Tad, 30-12 (71 percent); Homer, 24-18 (57 percent).

What game in Week 2 is on the top of your list? Any potential upsets coming this week? Post your thoughts via a comment and we can chat! It’s the magic of the internet!

–patrick

Random tidbits to keep in mind as we enter the semifinals, as drawn from the state champions listings:

* Two of the 20 programs remaining don’t have a state championship: Newcastle and Upton-Sundance. Upton and Sundance have won state titles separately — they actually both won titles in 2005 — but never as a combined program. Newcastle, meanwhile, came closest in 1981, losing the state title game that year in Class A.

* Aside from Newcastle and Upton-Sundance, the team still in the playoffs that has gone the longest without winning a state championship is Wheatland. The Bulldogs last won a state title in 1984. Torrington (1990), Lingle (1990), Cody (1991), Mountain View (1997) and Riverton (1999) are also trying to win their first titles of the 2000s.

* With a championship this year, Natrona would pass Laramie and be alone in third place in the total championships standings with 17. Sheridan leads with 23 and Cokeville has 21.

* Class 4A hasn’t had a repeat champion since Rock Springs in 2001-02. East is trying to break that streak this year.

* The four remaining teams in the 1A six-man playoffs (Meeteetse, Dubois, Snake River and Guernsey-Sunrise) have all won state six-man titles the past five years. In fact, they’re the only programs in the state that have won six-man titles since the 2009 six-man reboot.

We’re going from 20 to 10 teams, one way or another. The title race gets a heck of a lot clearer after this week — you could even say 20/10 clear (badum). But enough trivia. You came here for semifinal playoff picks, and here they are:

Class 4A
(4) Sheridan at (1) Natrona: Two of the past three seasons, we’ve seen an undefeated team lose in the 4A semifinals — Gillette last year, Natrona in 2011. Probably not this year, though. NC has that San Francisco Giants thing going where they win titles in even-numbered years. Chalk this one up to patterns, and a dominant Mustang defense that can keep pretty much any team in check. First playoff meeting since 2010 title game.
(3) Gillette at (2) Cheyenne East: East’s 28-14 victory against Gillette in the final week of the regular season was one of the most impressive victories of the season for any team in any classification in the state. A coin flip and a yawner of a quarterfinal round later, the T-Birds get to host the rematch. That kind of advantage is huge at this point in the playoffs. The Camels will need to be at their best if they want to have any hopes of coming out of Cheyenne with a victory. (And that’s entirely possible. Just saying.) First playoff meeting since 2008 5A semifinals.
Class 3A
(2E) Riverton at (1W) Cody: Everyone’s known for a long time that 2014 was destined to be Cody’s best season in a while. The Broncs have made good on that hunch. Riverton, however, presents a tough test, because the Wolverines know how to (1) score and (2) win close. If the Wolverines get a chance in the fourth, watch out — but I’m afraid the Broncs may not even give the Wolverines that chance. First playoff meeting since 2012 quarterfinals.
(3E) Torrington at (1E) Douglas: Torrington’s turnaround isn’t complete just yet. Even though the team has its first winning season in a generation, as well as its its first playoff victory in almost a decade, the Blazers still have some work to do. Learning how to knock off teams like Douglas — a program that knows what playoff football is all about — in November takes time. Give Torrington another year or two and then maybe we see this one go the other way. Although, you gotta admit, Torrington was REALLY impressive last week, and only lost to Douglas by seven in the regular season…. Crud. Thinking too much. Need to move on…. . First playoff meeting since 1990 quarterfinals.
Class 2A
(2E) Newcastle at (1W) Mountain View: I’ll admit that I gave up on the Buffalos way too early this season. After they lost to Cokeville, I figured last year was Mountain View’s aberration year. Turns out the Cokeville game was Mountain View’s aberration game. The Dogies stand a good chance at an upset, but Mountain View (aside from one nonconference game) has been the powerhouse we all expected them to be this year. Rematch of quarterfinal playoff games from the past two years.
(3E) Wheatland at (1E) Big Horn: A 19-6 victory against Wheatland two weeks ago and a 23-12 victory against Lovell in the quarterfinals aren’t Big Horn’s most impressive victories of the season. However, the fact that Big Horn has won those close games makes them much less susceptible to an upset than if they’d won by 50. The Bulldogs will keep it close, but the Rams know they’re vulnerable, and that will give them focus. First playoff meeting.
Class 1A 11-man
(3E) Upton-Sundance at (1E) Lusk: I’m not sure what to think of the Patriots. They’re a bit unpredictable, but they’re talented and physical enough to match up with the Tigers. U-S only lost to Lusk by 10 (16-6) in the regular season. If everything goes right, U-S has a chance. Even so, this game is Lusk’s to lose. First playoff meeting.
(2E) Lingle at (1W) Cokeville: Lingle’s had a great season. And Lingle has won in Cokeville in the playoffs within the past few years. And… and… and… No. Cokeville has been rolling everyone all season. The Panthers are talented and confident. Fourth playoff meeting in six years; first playoff meeting since 2012 quarterfinals.
Class 1A six-man
(3W) Meeteetse at (1W) Dubois: About a month ago, these two teams faced off in a defensive (for six-man) struggle, with the Rams winning 28-22. This one should be just as tight. The edge belongs to the homestanding Rams, though, who are trying to make their third state title game in four years. First playoff meeting.
(2W) Snake River at (1E) Guernsey-Sunrise: Egads, the Vikings have been good this season. The Rattlers will be a challenge, but not a challenge Guernsey can’t overcome. With big victories against Dubois and Meeteetse, the Vikings have consistently responded against the best the West can throw at them. Rematch of a quarterfinal playoff game from last year.

Last week: 19-1 (95 percent). This season: 239-54 (82 percent).

For a full season schedule, including kickoff times for this week’s games, click here.

So I just realized: I picked nothing but home teams, nothing but top seeds. Does that make me boring? Or ignorant? What am I missing? Fill me in by making a comment, and then we can all move forward together more informed.

–patrick

With 23 games affecting playoff qualification and seeding, Friday night will be busy for Wyoming high school football teams.

All the work may not be done by the end of the last game on Friday, though.

Depending on how this week’s games come out, we could be left hanging Saturday morning waiting on the results of two triangular playoffs and three coin flips — and, just maybe, a WHSAA ruling on how to break a five-team tie.

In all, 23 of the 32 games this weekend could affect playoff seeding: all five 4A games, three of the six 3A games, five of the seven 2A games, six of the seven 1A 11-man games and four of the seven games involving 1A six-man teams.

However, 30 of the 40 playoff spots up for grabs have been claimed. Another 14 schools have already been eliminated from playoff contention, leaving 19 teams chasing the remaining 10 playoff spots.

Even with all that, only the Upton-Sundance/Southeast game provides a “winner in-loser out” scenario. A variety of other teams could qualify with a victory or miss the postseason with a loss, but no other squads in the state face the clear-cut win and in-lose and out dichotomy Upton-Sundance and Southeast have in their game.

All that’s left for some conferences is seeding. The eight squads for the 3A playoffs, for example, are set; what’s not set is seeding. The Rawlins-Torrington game will give clarity to the East seedings — the winner will be No. 3, the loser No. 4 — to go with Douglas’ guaranteed top seed and Riverton’s sealed No. 2 seed. The 3A West is messier, where the four squads of Cody, Powell, Jackson and Star Valley are all in, but seeding won’t be set until after Friday’s games, or later if there ends up being a three-way tie that must be settled by a coin flip.

A similar scenario exists in the 2A East, where Big Horn, Newcastle, Wheatland and Thermopolis are playing for seeding but might need a coin flip to sort it all out. Also, the 1A six-man West’s seeds will be settled on the field on Friday when the Farson-Snake River games settles the conference’s four seeds, one way or another, which will be divvied out to the Pronghorns and Rattlers as well as Dubois and Meeteetse.

That leaves five conferences — 4A, 2A West, 1A 11-man East and West and 1A six-man East — where games can influence not only seeding but qualification, as well. Class 4A is a mess, as a potential five-way tie could happen between Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne South, Evanston, Laramie and Kelly Walsh given the right circumstances. The WHSAA handbook lists no guidelines for breaking a five-team tie.

The 2A West is much simpler: Lovell has the inside track to the conference’s last seed, but Big Piney could sneak in with a victory and a loss by Lovell.

The two 1A 11-man conferences look similar — set in the top halves, messy in the bottom halves. The top two seeds in each conference, with Lusk and Lingle in the East and Cokeville and Rocky Mountain in the West, are already set. The chase for the final two spots in both conferences is among four teams. (Southeast, Moorcroft, Upton-Sundance and Southeast are playing for the final two spots in the East, while the West’s final two spots are also up for grabs among Burlington, Riverside, Shoshoni and Wind River.) The only potential for a triangular playoff, though, is in the West, where if Cokeville, Rocky Mountain and Shoshoni win their respective games, then Burlington, Riverside and Wind River will meet in a triangular for the final playoff spot.

The 1A six-man East Conference also has potential for a triangular playoff, but only if NSI beats Midwest and Hulett beats Rock River. In that circumstance, NSI, Midwest and Hulett would meet in a triangular with one playoff spot available. Midwest has the advantage heading into the final week, needing only to beat NSI to reach the playoffs.

Clear?

Don’t worry if all the scenarios are a little overwhelming. As straightforward as seeding is supposed to be, we may not be done by the time the regular season is done, anyway.

Other stuff for the week:

The toughest games of the week to pick: Laramie/Kelly Walsh, Rawlins/Torrington, Big Piney/Pinedale, Greybull/Lovell, Upton-Sundance/Southeast, Farson/Snake River. Week 8 is loaded with a ton of potential thrillers. In the bulk of these picks, I just went with the home team and called it good. …

Nothing but pride on the line in the Saratoga-Wyoming Indian and the St. Stephens-Ten Sleep games. The four squads have zero combined victories, but they’ve all got the chance to end the season with a victory. …

The best playoff bracket will be Class 3A’s. Just sayin’. …

Here are my picks for the final week of the regular season, with projected winners, as usual, in bold:

Week 8
Thursday
Class 3A
Riverton at Lander
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Gillette
Evanston at Cheyenne Central
Laramie at Kelly Walsh
Natrona at Rock Springs
Sheridan at Cheyenne South
Class 3A
Buffalo at Douglas
Cody at Powell
Rawlins at Torrington
Star Valley at Jackson
Worland at Green River
Class 2A
Big Piney at Pinedale
Glenrock at Kemmerer
Greybull at Lovell
Mountain View at Lyman
Newcastle at Thermopolis
Wheatland at Big Horn
Wright at Burns (at Pine Bluffs)
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Rocky Mountain
Cokeville at Wind River
Lingle at Moorcroft
Pine Bluffs at Tongue River
Riverside at Shoshoni
Saratoga at Wyoming Indian
Upton-Sundance at Southeast
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Snake River
Guernsey-Sunrise at Meeteetse
Hulett at Rock River
Kaycee at Hanna
NSI at Midwest
Interclass
Dubois at Natrona sophs
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
St. Stephens at Ten Sleep
Open: Lusk.

Last week: 27-5 (84 percent). This season: 193-48 (80 percent).

For a full season schedule, including kickoff times for this week’s games, click here.

The final week of the regular season is here! Are you ready for it? What game strikes you as the biggest of the bunch? Post a comment and let’s chat.

–patrick

Oct. 31, 1981.

The Newcastle Dogies are riding a seemingly unstoppable wave of momentum. They’re 8-0 and cruising into the Class A title game against Jackson. The Dogies won a ton of close games, but that’s not surprising; this is Newcastle’s eighth consecutive winning season. These Newcastle kids know how to win. They beat Torrington 18-14 two weeks ago and Wheatland 7-6 last week to get here.

Those two victories came after a bye week, which was created after Sheridan dropped Newcastle from its schedule after the little guys from Weston County went up to Sheridan the year before and beat — nay, shut out — the Class AA big guys, 14-0. In Sheridan.

But this is no fairy tale. Jackson’s good, and strong, and motivated. Maybe most importantly, the Broncs are at home. Newcastle loses that Class A title game, 13-6. But there’s nothing to suggest the Dogies can’t return, and soon, to try again.

+++

Oct. 19, 1998.

The Big Horn Rams trudge off a cold, muddy field in Gillette, defeated. They’ve lost to Hulett, 12-0, in the first half of a tiebreaking triangular playoff. For the fourth consecutive year — every year since the state abandoned nine-man football and forced the Rams to move to 11-man — the Rams will miss the playoffs.

In that 1998 season, the Rams manage three victories, beating winless Greybull, tiny Meeteetse and fellow nine-man transplant Midwest. But Ten Sleep doubled them up, rival Tongue River beat them by 34, and conference rivals Upton and Hulett beat them by 35 and 23 points, respectively. There’s nothing to suggest a Rams’ resurgence is near.

+++

Nov. 8, 2003.

On their home field, the Big Horn Rams celebrate with a state championship trophy in hand. They’ve just completed a perfect 11-0 season. Lusk, the team Big Horn beat 29-8 in the Class 2A championship game that afternoon, was nothing more than another victim. Lusk was the team that kept Big Horn at bay in the 2002 title game; Big Horn left no doubt in 2003 as to which was the better team.

In that 11-0 season, Big Horn won all but one game by at least 21 points. From wire to wire, the Rams had the mojo of a champion. Just the second title in school history was theirs. Even the novice could see the Rams had the chance to win a heck of a lot more titles, and soon.

+++

Sept. 24, 2004.

After 29 consecutive losses, the Newcastle Dogies have some hope. The Dogies are already 0-4, and Buffalo pasted them 49-6 the previous week in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score might suggest. A victory seems so long ago; a time when the Dogies were expected to win seems almost like a different reality.

But winless Wheatland was coming to Schoonmaker Field. This was going to be Newcastle’s best chance to get a victory and to end the losing streak that dated back to August of 2001 — more than three years on the calendar — and the program’s best chance to win its first home game since 1999.

This night was Newcastle’s. The Dogies scored 34 points, their most in a single game since before the turn of the century, and defeated the Bulldogs by 14.

Yeah, Newcastle didn’t win another game in 2004. And, yeah, the Dogies’ victory came in a losing season, their 21st straight losing season in streak that eventually reached 22, setting a state record no program wants to have. Never had a victory against a winless opponent meant so much. Highs aren’t supposed to be this low.

+++

Nov. 10, 2007.

Big Horn’s back-to-back titles in 2003 and 2004 are memories now. The Rams’ focus is on winning the school’s fourth state title. But against Riverside in one of the best games of the decade, Big Horn can’t stop what can only look like fate’s predetermined outcome. In the game’s final minutes, Riverside drives 99 yards to score, and then converts on a gutsy two-point conversion, to earn a 21-20 victory and the state title.

When losing after giving up a 99-yard drive, and giving up the subsequent two-point conversion, tears will come — either from grief or from frustration. Unfortunately for Big Horn, the loss is a harbinger of losses to come: Big Horn will lose two state title games in the next three years after losing to Riverside, falling short in 2008 and again in 2010. So many tears shouldn’t be shed in times of so much success, but the Rams had the grief or frustration to justify them.

Big Horn’s next state championship would come, in part, thanks to the head coach on the Riverside sideline that day in 2007.

+++

Oct. 21, 2011.

Newcastle coach Matt Conzelman is nearing the end of his third season as head coach. He’s seen his team steadily improve: The Dogies went a traditionally Newcastle-ish 1-8 in 2009, his first year, but finished 4-6 in his second year and were competitive (and headed for a winning record and a semifinal appearance) heading into a key 2A East Conference game against Big Horn by late October 2011.

Big Horn and Newcastle hadn’t played each other until 2009, when reclassification tossed the two schools, traditionally separated by a definitive size difference, together into the hodgepodge 2A East Conference. The little guys with lots of recent tradition had no trouble with the big guys with lots of recent struggles; Big Horn beat Newcastle in 2009 and again in 2010.

Not this time. Not in 2011. This was Newcastle’s chance to show its slow, incremental successes were not accidents. No, Newcastle was for real. And the best way to prove that was by beating the reigning conference champ, a program with a ton of success and title-game trips the past decade. So the Dogies did just that. Final: Newcastle 35, Big Horn 21.

+++

Oct. 19, 2012.

Newcastle was 8-0. Big Horn was 8-0. And they were going to play each other in the final game of the regular season to determine the 2A East Conference champion and the team that would host the first two rounds of playoff games.

Michael McGuire — the coach who helped Riverside top Big Horn back in 2007 — was now the Rams’ leader, in his first season with his new squad. And this was a chance to prove something. Maybe that the Rams were better than everyone thought. Maybe that the title-game losses, five of them since 2000, were the old Big Horn. Maybe that his team, not the Dogies, was the team that could give those big shots out in the West, Lyman and Lovell, their biggest challenge in the playoffs. Maybe that the Rams’ past distractions were now memories.

Big Horn 55, Newcastle 6.

Both teams lost in the 2A semifinals, Big Horn to Lovell and Newcastle to Lyman.

+++

Sept. 13, 2013.

After the consistent success the Dogies found under Conzelman and the revival of pride the Rams found under McGuire, everyone could see the opening game of the 2A East conference schedule would be important. And, eventually, it was — it decided which team would host a playoff game and which one would have to travel.

In one of the highest-scoring games of the season, the Rams beat the Dogies 50-43. However, for both squads, the game was more than a victory or loss. The game was an indicator that both programs had changed.

Newcastle was no longer the pushover, the laughingstock. In a way, the Dogies now resembled the Dogies of old, the program even the likes of Sheridan were scared to play.

Big Horn was no longer the struggling little guy. The Rams had forged a new identity, one found in the early 2000s and refined after several near-misses in the postseason, near-misses that were appeased somewhat by the state championship the Rams won later in the 2013 season.

And those games between the two, from a rivalry that didn’t exist prior to their 2009 happenstance conference marriage, would, for the foreseeable future, always be critical.

+++

Friday’s game between Big Horn and Newcastle is just the sixth in the series between them, but, like usual in this short series, the winner has numerous spoils awaiting them.

If Newcastle can somehow upset the top-ranked Rams, the Dogies will win the 2A East Conference title and earn home-field advantage in the playoffs. Big Horn can’t quite pull off the same feat alone — the Rams need Burns to upset Wheatland on Friday, too, in conjunction with a victory against Newcastle to win the conference on Friday. Otherwise, Big Horn will need to beat Wheatland next week to win the conference title. Chances are good that the teams will finish first and second, in some order, in the East this year.

Either way, though, the fact that the Big Horn-Newcastle game means as much as it does is a testament to two programs that have become consistently successful. Newcastle had to fight through 22 consecutive losing seasons to get here; Big Horn had to fight through being a nine-man also-ran and an an 11-man afterthought.

The fact that this rivalry has become so important so fast is something for each team to cherish on its own sideline, something to admire on the other.

+++

+++

+++

The game between Big Horn and Newcastle is not the only one that could determine a conference champion. In fact, eight of the nine conference champions could be decided by the end of Week 7, and five schools (Natrona, Riverton, Douglas, Newcastle and Cokeville) can win their respective conference crowns simply with a victory:

4A: Natrona can win the No. 1 seed with a victory.

3A East: The Riverton-Douglas winner will win the conference title.

3A West: No one can win the conference this week.

2A East: Newcastle can win the conference with a win; Big Horn can win the conference with a victory AND a Burns victory.

2A West: Mountain View can win the conference title with a victory AND a Greybull victory.

1A 11-man East: Lusk has won the conference title.

1A 11-man West: Cokeville can win the conference title if its JV can beat Wyoming Indian (see explainer below).

1A six-man East: Guernsey has won the conference title.

1A six-man West: Dubois can win the conference title with a victory AND a St. Stephens victory.

Playoff watch: Seventeen schools have already qualified for the playoffs — Natrona, Sheridan, Gillette, Cheyenne East, Riverton, Douglas, Cody, Powell, Big Horn, Newcastle, Lusk, Cokeville, Guernsey, Kaycee, Snake River, Dubois and Meeteetse. Meanwhile, five others (Burns, Wright, Kemmerer, Saratoga and Wyoming Indian) have been mathematically eliminated. The rest is still up for grabs. And only two seeds, Lusk’s No. 1 seed in the 1A 11-man East and Guernsey’s No. 1 in the 1A six-man East, have been set.

This time of year, I feel like I could put every game down as an important game to watch, because basically every game is important for playoff seeding. But here are a few games this week that I’m keeping a special eye on:

In Class 4A, Natrona can wrap up the No. 1 seed in the playoffs if it can beat Sheridan on Friday in Casper. The Mustangs and Broncs have a deep and storied rivalry, and this one between 7-0 NC and 6-1 Sheridan should be another classic. And if Sheridan finds a way to win, we’ll have a messy tiebreaker to settle atop the classification for those all-important top seeds. …

The winner of Friday’s showdown between Douglas and Riverton will be the top seed from the 3A East. Need we say more? …

Another big game lurks in the 3A West, where Powell faces Jackson. While some of the luster wore off this game when Jackson fell to Cody last week, the Broncs from Teton County are still definitely in the hunt for a home playoff game and, if everything falls right, can still have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and help. But Powell is a proud program, and the Panthers are at home. …

One of the toughest games for me to pick this week was Star Valley-Worland. A playoff spot is likely on the line in Washakie County. …

An underrated but key 2A West game is the one between Greybull and Lyman. The winner is likely going to get a home playoff game — a big deal in a parity-filled classification. …

The 1A 11-man West has turned messy. Cokeville is in, and Saratoga and Wyoming Indian are out, leaving five teams chasing four playoff spots. Four of those five play each other this week: Rocky Mountain’s at Riverside and Shoshoni’s at Burlington. By Saturday, will we have more clarity, or more chaos? …

And how about the 1A six-man West? A conference full of parity just keeps throwing us surprises. The six-man West is the only conference in the state where every team has at least one league loss, making the chase for the conference championship, and playoff seeding, really interesting.

1A 11-man West explainer: A quick note of clarification on Cokeville’s schedule this week. The Panthers’ varsity will play the Evanston JV on Wednesday, while their junior varsity plays conference opponent Wyoming Indian on Friday. The varsity game against Evanston’s JV will count toward Cokeville’s overall record, while the JV’s game against Wyoming Indian’s varsity will count toward both teams’ 1A 11-man West Conference standings but not toward Cokeville’s overall record for the season. This has happened a few times in 1A basketball, but to my knowledge it’s the first time it’s happened in football. …

On to the picks. Projected winners are in bold. You should know this by now. You probably do. But I say it anyway:

Wednesday
Interclass
Cokeville at Evanston JV
Thursday
Class 4A
Cheyenne East at Evanston
Interclass
Gillette sophs at Upton-Sundance (at Sundance)
Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne South at Rock Springs
Gillette at Laramie
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne Central
Sheridan at Natrona
Class 3A
Douglas at Riverton
Green River at Cody
Jackson at Powell
Lander at Rawlins
Star Valley at Worland
Torrington at Buffalo
Class 2A
Big Horn at Newcastle
Burns at Wheatland
Lovell at Kemmerer
Lyman at Greybull
Mountain View at Big Piney
Pinedale at Wright
Thermopolis at Glenrock
Class 1A 11-man
Moorcroft at Pine Bluffs
Rocky Mountain at Riverside
Shoshoni at Burlington
Southeast at Lusk
Tongue River at Lingle
Wind River at Saratoga
Wyoming Indian at Cokeville JV
Class 1A six-man
Hanna at NSI
St. Stephens at Farson
Ten Sleep at Dubois
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Midwest at Hulett
Snake River at Kaycee
Open: Meeteetse.

Guernsey-Sunrise already notched a forfeit victory against Rock River this week. Rock River does plan on playing Hulett next week, though.

Last week: 28-4 (88 percent). This season: 166-43 (79 percent).

For a full season schedule, including kickoff times for this week’s games, click here.

So, now that you’re all studied up… leave a comment. I’m ready to chat. Maybe some other folks are, too. I’ve started the conversation and everything….

–patrick