2010 predictions

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No need for superfluous introductions: Here are some predictions for the 2010 football season.

Class 4A

The overview: It’s not very often that two teams that finished with four combined victories the previous season are the odds-on favorites. But that’s the case this year with Natrona and East. The Mustangs were 2-8 last year and the Thunderbirds 2-7, but both teams relied heavily on underclass players to fill key roles on the varsity. That means this year, seemingly everyone is picking one of these two teams as a preseason Cinderella. And what a fairy-tale story it would be if these two teams could end up playing each other in Laramie in November.

But let’s slow down. There are eight other teams in this classification, including defending champ Sheridan, defending runner-up Central, fast-rising Kelly Walsh, scary Green River and always tough Gillette. Those are teams that finished with winning records last season, and while all five lost some talented players, all five also have enough talent returning to give any team a fight.

The picks: Right now, Cinderella is too pretty to ignore. You can’t deny that, on paper, Natrona and East have the most talented teams. Remember, East beat Central in the Capital Bowl last year, and Natrona lost six of its eight games by seven points or less. Despite the final records, these two teams were close to the top teams in the classification. Look for one of these two teams to turn it all around and win the title in November — and look for the other to come up a few points short. For now, I like East with its dangerous aerial combination of QB Trevon Hinker and WR Jeremiah Hunter.

The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. East; 2. Natrona; 3. Central; 4. Gillette; 5. Sheridan.

Class 3A

The overview: In a word: Douglas. Winners of state titles in 2008 and 2009, the Bearcats are loaded again for 2010. Everyone else is chasing them. That’s really all you need to know. (Although 3A gets all kinds of fun after that, as Buffalo, Cody, Star Valley, Powell, Wheatland and Worland all appear to have the ability to be the team to face Douglas in Laramie in November.)

The picks: With the tradition behind them and the talent in the locker room, Douglas has to be the favorite in 3A. Behind them, teams are lining up for their chance. That’s the tough part about being on top — everyone is gunning for you every time you step on the field. Of course, the Bearcats have taken everyone’s best shot for the past 20 games and haven’t lost yet…. So the question now becomes who Douglas will play in the title game. In August, I can’t help but look to Buffalo; the Bison have some tradition, too, and some talented players return from last year’s semifinal team.

The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Douglas; 2. Buffalo; 3. Cody; 4. Star Valley; 5. Powell.

Class 2A

The overview: For the first time since 1999, a team not named “Big Piney,” “Glenrock” or “Kemmerer” won the state’s third division, as Thermopolis basically came out of nowhere with a wide-open offense (well, as wide open as you can be in 2A) and an underrated but incredibly tough defense to win it all. This year, Thermopolis has its QB back in Mitch Syverson, which helps give the Bobcats an early edge in what is — for the first time in years — a wide-open classification.

That’s not to say that the Bobcats will just walk down to Laramie and win it all again. Thermopolis lost a ton of talented players and needs some of last year’s reserves to step up quickly. If they don’t, several teams — including Greybull, Glenrock and Big Horn — have the capability to knock them off and be this year’s out-of-nowhere team.

The picks: This isn’t as easy as it used to be. For the past few years, all I’ve had to do here is say “Kemmerer vs. Glenrock,” and chances are that I’d be pretty safe. Actually, that’s not a bad pick this year, either, but it’s no certainty, either. I think Thermopolis and Greybull have, on paper, the most talent. I think Glenrock is always tough and always seems to find players to fit its unique offense. I think Big Horn could be incredibly tough to stop. I think Kemmerer is being overlooked. I think Big Piney, Lovell and Wright are all worthy of preseason mention. I think I don’t know who to pick….

For now, let’s say Thermopolis vs. Greybull in the title game. Just let me adjust my picks every week between now and then.

The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Thermopolis; 2. Greybull; 3. Glenrock; 4. Big Horn; 5. Kemmerer.

Class 1A 11-man

The overview: You can’t mention this division without mentioning Southeast. The Cyclones have won four consecutive state championships. But, man, oh, man, will they have a tough time making it five. Cokeville, Lusk and Lingle will make sure of that.

If the boys from Yoder want to make it five straight, they will need to put together their best effort to do so, as this classification is STACKED on the top side. Cokeville has some amazing talent coming back. Lusk has been pointing to 2010 for a long time and is poised for a playoff breakthrough. Lingle has some solid returners on both sides of the ball and now has experience and confidence going for it, too.

The picks: My goodness, the playoffs are going to be fun. For now, I think Cokeville — on paper — has 1A’s most talent, including RB Chance Maddock. I think Southeast has earned the title of perennial favorite. For now, I’ll go with those two teams. But, wow, Lusk and Lingle… how can you NOT like either of those teams to win it all, as well? I can’t wait for the first weekend in November and the semifinals.

The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Cokeville; 2. Southeast; 3. Lusk; 4. Lingle; 5. Ummm….. Burlington? Why not.

Class 1A six-man

The overview: No team will dominate the division the way Guernsey did last fall — and that’s a good thing. Teams like Ten Sleep, Midwest, Kaycee and Hanna all have to be considered in the preseason discussion. As the playoffs proved last year, six-man is anything but predictable, especially with the wide-open play and the loads of talent that seemingly each team carries. With the division moving to a one-conference format for playoff seeding this year, every game in weeks 1-7 will be a conference game, so that should create some interesting matchups in the postseason.

The picks: Although you have to respect Guernsey and what the Vikings accomplished last fall, I also think you have to realize that this division is no longer a one-team show. Kaycee and Ten Sleep, especially, have the talent and athleticism to make a run at the title this fall. I think this classification is the least predictable of them all, as teams are still working to establish their identities, but I also think that makes it fun. Right now, I’ll lean toward another Guernsey-Kaycee title game, with Kaycee winning it this time thanks to an athletic group led by back Shawn Straub.

But don’t be surprised to see some other teams step up and challenge that. And don’t be surprised if the team that wins it all come November has two or three losses along the way. I think there’s that much parity at the top.

The wyoming-football.com preseason top five: 1. Kaycee; 2. Guernsey; 3. Ten Sleep; 4. Hanna; 5. Midwest.

So, what do you think? Which teams will still be standing in November? Who are some of the top players? Which teams have the ability to come out of nowhere and win a title? Which favorites will capitalize on their expectations? Leave a comment below and let’s get this discussion started!

–patrick

2010 schedule and some early predictions

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Although they were posted a few weeks ago by the WHSAA, I have yet to mention the 2010 football schedules. There wasn’t much drama involved in them this year — for the most part, the 2009 schedule was simply flipped into the 2010 schedule, with only the locations of the games changing — so I didn’t really talk about them much when they came out. But now that we’re more than a month removed from the 2009 championships (and now that I’ve posted the update here!), I think we can officially start looking forward.

Here’s a little breakdown of each team’s 2010 season schedule outlook with a link to the full schedules:

4A Schedules

Gillette: One of the early favorites in 4A. The tough part of the season might come at the end. Road games at Sheridan and Natrona will probably be key for playoff seeds, but the Camels get Central, Kelly Walsh and Green River at home in the final four weeks of the season.
Central: Central has to replace a ton of seniors, and the Indians will be tested early. At Natrona to start, home against an improved Rock Springs teams, then at Evanston and at Laramie. Surviving that will be important.
East: Could be the turnaround story of ’10 and should be one of the early favorites. The schedule sets up favorably, too, but road games against Sheridan and Gillette the first two weeks will test the Thunderbirds’ mettle.
Evanston: A big question mark, the Red Devils still have a lot of rebuilding to do. Having Gillette, Natrona, Central and Green River the first four weeks will either be empowering or will be too much to overcome.
Green River: Will be underrated next season but should return enough talent to stay competitive. The Wolves look like they have a really balanced schedule, which helps, but starting with two road games the first two weeks (East and Kelly Walsh) won’t help.
Kelly Walsh: I’m thinking KW could be decent next fall, and the schedule shapes up beautifully. The rematch with Sheridan comes right off the bat (this time in Casper), which will help the team move past the loss. The only stumbling blocks appear to be road games with East and Gillette — and the Oil Bowl.
Laramie: It’s tough to get a read on the Plainsmen, who have to replace a ton of backfield talent. Unfortunately for Laramie, they’ll get some big tests the first four weeks: at Rock Springs, home against Gillette, at Natrona, home against Central. Survive that stretch, and Laramie will be dangerous.
Natrona: If the Mustangs find ways to win close games, they’ll be really good. The schedule appears to be bottom heavy, which might actually play into NC’s favor. Season ends with four toughies: at East, home against Gillette and Rock Springs, then at Sheridan.
Rock Springs: I’ve got high expectations for the Tigers. Weeks 2-7 (home vs. Gillette, at Sheridan, home vs. Kelly Walsh, at Green River in the Trona Bowl, home vs. East, then at Natrona) will be a grind, but it’ll also be a great way for a young team to prove itself.
Sheridan: Defending champs have a LOT of holes to fill and probably won’t start ’10 as the favorites. KW, East and Green River right off the bat will help the Broncs gauge where they’re at right away.

Half-educated made in December top 5 picks for 2010: 1. Gillette; 2. East; 3. Natrona; 4. Kelly Walsh; 5. Sheridan.

3A Schedules

Buffalo: Few schools consider a semifinal appearance a down year, but that’s how it is for the Bison, who have work to do but will start from a solid base of returners. Having its toughest three conference games (Douglas, Riverton, Torrington) on the road won’t help.
Cody: Could be a dangerous team if the pieces come together. The schedule shapes up well, too, with three home conference games, but drawing Star Valley and Worland for the road games will make it tough to go unbeaten in league play.
Douglas: The domination the Bearcats exhibited in 2009 makes them the early 2010 favorites. Back-to-back road trips to Jackson and Star Valley (the only change in the 3A schedule) in Weeks 2-3 will be a good early test. Douglas also gets Buffalo and Riverton at home.
Jackson: In a word: rebuilding. In two words: still rebuilding. On the plus side, the Broncs get their final two conference games, games that could be crucial to playoff seeding (or qualifying), at home, with Worland and Star Valley making the visits to Teton County in Weeks 7 and 8.
Lander: To steal a line from Dethklok, possibly awesome, possibly horrible. They’ll get to know the Bighorn Basin well, with trips to Worland, Powell AND Cody, which might be a good test but could also steal some of the Tigers’ thunder.
Powell: Should be better than they were in ’09 — and shouldn’t crater like the ’09 team. Then again… back-to-back road games against Worland and Cody in Weeks 6 and 7, plus a tough non-conference schedule, will make it tough on the Panthers.
Rawlins: Nowhere to go but up. The Outlaws’ schedule fits into that “tough but it could be worse” mold, but Rawlins definitely got the short end of the stick by being forced to finish the regular season with road games at Wheatland and Buffalo in Weeks 7 and 8.
Riverton: The Wolverines? No clue. Should be decent, could be bad. I don’t know. Rough non-conference schedule, and draw both Douglas and Torrington for road games, but get Buffalo at home.
Star Valley: Got high hopes for the Braves, who should be among 3A’s best. The schedule shapes up decent, too, as the Braves draw both of last year’s championship game participants (Cody and Douglas) to Afton. Two road games to end the conference slate (Lander and Jackson) isn’t exactly the funnest way to end the regular season, though.
Torrington: The Trailblazers should have more balance, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. As for the schedule, the start (at Chadron, Neb., then at Worland) and the end (at Douglas) don’t look fun, but the rest looks manageable.
Wheatland: Under the radar, the Bulldogs could be a dangerous team in 2010. They’ll have to learn to win on the road, though, as they draw three tough conference games (Buffalo, Riverton and Torrington) away from Platte County.
Worland: A rebuilding team draws a decent schedule. Manageable, but no cakewalk, especially with road games against Buffalo, Wheatland and Star Valley in the first four weeks of the season.

Half-educated made in December top 5 picks for 2010: 1. Douglas; 2. Star Valley; 3. Cody; 4. Buffalo; 5. Powell.

2A Schedules

Big Horn: Write it down: The Rams will be a breakthrough team in 2010. Big Horn gets both Glenrock and Thermopolis at home in Weeks 4-5, and if the Rams can win both of those, watch the —- out. The road games are winnable, and matching up with Greybull at Greybull in Week 1 will be a great start.
Big Piney: For the Punchers, who could be a tough team to beat, they’ll have to prove their worth in the second half of the season. They draw road games against Kemmerer, Pinedale and Lovell in Weeks 5, 6 and 8 respectively, all sandwiching a heckuva tough home game versus Greybull in Week 7.
Burns: Wow. The Broncs couldn’t do much worse than this. Three of their four conference road games come against Big Horn, Glenrock and Thermopolis. Good luck with that, Burns. Road warriors, you must become.
Glenrock: Perennial contenders, the Herders have to get good fast, as they get Kemmerer, Thermopolis and Big Horn in Weeks 1, 3 and 4. A soft second half of the season, including drawing an improving Wright team at home, won’t help Glenrock prepare for the playoffs, either.
Greybull: The early favorites to win the West in 2010 have their toughest stretch in the second half of the season, as road games with Lovell in Week 5 and Big Piney in Week 7 sandwich a home game against always-tough Kemmerer in Week 6. Drawing Big Horn out of the gate in Week 1 will be a fun test, too.
Kemmerer: Rangers need to rebuild a bit but should still be in the hunt. The schedule looks balanced, although the games do appear to get tougher toward the second half of the season, and the big showdown with Greybull is a road game.
Lovell: The Bulldogs should again be pretty good, in part thanks to a decent, balanced schedule. The final two weeks — at Kemmerer in Week 7 and at home against Big Piney in Week 8 — will be crucial for playoff qualifying/seeding, so being on point for those will be key.
Lyman: The Eagle rebuilding project gets tested early and often in 2010. Lyman’s first four opponents are Thermopolis, Kemmerer, Lovell and Big Piney. Whew. If nothing else, Lyman will figure out quickly where it stands and how much improvement it still needs to make.
Moorcroft: A crash-and-burn finish to ’09 might be repeated in ’10, especially with how the schedule shapes up. The Wolves have it kinda easy early but draw Big Horn, Wright and Glenrock in the final three weeks of the season.
Mountain View: Work to do in the Bridger Valley, and with a schedule that starts with Cokeville, Greybull, Big Piney and Lovell (with only Greybull at home), that work will be put to the test early. Fortunately, the showdown with Kemmerer waits until Week 8. How nice. 🙂
Newcastle: There just aren’t any soft spots for the young Dogies in 2010. However, with home games against Wright and Glenrock in Weeks 4 and 5 respectively, Newcastle is at least in the position to KO some unsuspecting teams and draw a little momentum for a late run.
Pinedale: The upside for the struggling Wranglers comes in the schedule in that most of the toughest games are at home. Kemmerer, Greybull and Big Piney all have to come to Pinedale — and it’s always easier to pull off upsets at home.
Thermopolis: The defending champs, and the early favorites to win it all in ’10, drew a decent-but-it-coulda-been-easier schedule…. The two games that will arguably be toughest, Glenrock in Week 3 and Big Horn in Week 5, are both on the road.
Tongue River: Rebuilding continues in Dayton, where, aside from a home game against Glenrock to kick off the conference season in Week 2, the tough side of the schedule comes at the end. The Thunder Bowl with Big Horn is Week 7, and a road game at defending champ Thermopolis comes in Week 8.
Wright: Could be the breakthrough team in 2A this year, but have the misfortune of sharing a conference with Thermop, Glenrock and Big Horn….. and Wright draws both the defending champ and the runner up on the road in Weeks 2 and 6. Big Horn does come to Wright in Week 3, though.
Wyoming Indian: The Chiefs caught no favors to start league play. After opening with Big Piney at home in Week 2, the Chiefs go to Greybull in Week 3, then to Kemmerer in Week 4…. Survive that stretch without a ton of injuries, and Wyoming Indian has a chance.

Half-educated made in December top 5 picks for 2010: 1. Thermopolis; 2. Greybull; 3. Glenrock; 4. Kemmerer; 5. Big Horn.

1A 11-man Schedules

Burlington: The best team to not make the playoffs last year, the Huskies could be decent. The three toughest games of the season might come at the end, though, as the Huskies sandwich home games against Wind River in Week 6 and Cokeville in Week 8 with a trip to Byron to face Rocky Mountain in Week 7.
Cokeville: Could be the best of the bunch of 1A come 2010. The only trouble is that three of the toughest conference games are all road games: Riverside in Week 2, Wind River in Week 7 and Burlington in Week 8. It’s a tough schedule, but Cokeville is used to the long road trips and shouldn’t be fazed.
Dubois: No soft spots on the Rams’ schedule next fall, and the games against semifinalists Wind River (Week 3) and Cokeville (Week 6) are both road games. Dubois does draw some other key games at home, though: Rocky, Burlington, Riverside and Shoshoni all make the trip to Dubois.
Hulett: The Red Devils were senior-laden and have a lot of rebuilding to do. On the plus side, all the long trips to the southeast corner aren’t happening in 2010 as Pine Bluffs, Lingle and Southeast all have to come to Hulett. That’ll definitely help Hulett keep its legs.
Lingle: Lost a lot of talent but should still be strong next season. The Doggers get to face both Lusk and Southeast at home this season, so that should help them as they try to set the pace out East.
Lusk: It looks more and more like Lusk could break out in 2010, and we’ll know early in the season if that’s the case. Southeast comes to Lusk in Week 3, while the Tigers go to Lingle in Week 4, and Lusk could win both; everything outside that two-week stretch looks more than winnable.
Normative Services: The Wolves have plenty of work to do, but at least they’ll get to do a bunch of it closer to home this year. The long road trips to Lusk and Pine Bluffs are now home games, but the hellish stretch of Weeks 5-7 (Southeast, Lingle and Lusk in that order) still exists.
Pine Bluffs: The Hornets have potential, and if it wasn’t for a two-week stretch at the season’s midpoint, I’d be high on Pine Bluffs. As it is, road games in Weeks 4-5 against Southeast and Lusk respectively looks like a tough sore spot to overcome….
Riverside: To be honest, I’m not quite sure which direction the Rebels are headed. Even so, the conference schedule is bookended by a pair of key home games, vs. Cokeville in Week 2 and vs. Wind River in Week 8. In between are a bunch of winnable games.
Rocky Mountain: Not sure why, but I feel good about the Grizzlies next fall. They’ll need to make their hay early, though: three of the Grizzlies’ last four games are on the road, including LONG trips to Cokeville and Saratoga.
Saratoga: Another team that I can’t quite feel out yet… But the schedule doesn’t shape up very well. The Panthers start at home against Lingle, then have road trips to Burlington and Cokeville to start 1A West Conference play. Starting with those three games will certainly give Saratoga a test early.
Shoshoni: For a team that went winless in 2009, there’s nowhere to go but up. Unfortunately, the schedule provides no reprieve, as the Wranglers face six teams in the first six weeks that finished at .500 or better: Pine Bluffs, Wind River, Burlington, Cokeville, Riverside and Rocky Mountain, in that order.
Southeast: Five straight? Why not? Southeast has enough coming back to make it possible. The schedule, especially in conference, will be a test, though, as the first two and two of the last three league games for the Cyclones are on the road.
Sundance: The Bulldogs should be an improved team in 2010, but the schedule will test that improvement, especially on the road. Sundance has to go to Lusk, Pine Bluffs and Lingle (including Lusk and Lingle back to back in Weeks 5-6), three long trips to face three teams that were playoff qualifiers in 2009.
Upton: Improving on last year’s 2-6 record will take some work. The back end of the schedule does not shape up well for the Bobcats, either, who travel to Pine Bluffs and Southeast in back-to-back weeks, then face Lusk at home in the regular-season finale.
Wind River: The Cougars lose a bunch of talented seniors but should have enough back to stay in the thick of things. The schedule is definitely tougher in the second half than in the first, though, and WR has to make three tough trips into the Bighorn Basin (Riverside, Rocky Mountain and Burlington).

Half-educated made in December top 5 picks for 2010: 1. Cokeville; 2. Lusk; 3. Southeast; 4. Lingle; 5. Wind River.

1A 6-man schedules

(The six-man schedules see the most change in 2010, as Fort Washakie/the bye week is removed and a whole new schedule was developed. Each team will play a seven-game regular season, with a bye week in Week 8 before the playoffs.)
Farson: With a year under their belts, the Pronghorns should be more competitive next fall and should pull off a couple victories. Their best chances come early, with Meeteetse at home in Week 1 followed by road dates at Hanna and Snake River. But Farson only has three home games.
Guernsey: As reward for winning the state championships, the Vikings get maybe the kindest schedule in the division. Guernsey gets four of its first five games at home, but has to travel to Ten Sleep and Kaycee to close the season in Weeks 6-7, which will be tough.
Hanna: Five of the seven weeks of the 2010 season shape up really well for the Miners, who should be among the division’s best despite losing some talented players. The two not-so-fun weeks? Weeks 3-4, when the Miners have back-to-back road games against ’09 runner-up Kaycee and champ Guernsey.
Kaycee: Another year on the gridiron, plus a bunch of talent coming back, could put Kaycee right back in the championship game in 2010. The Buckaroos didn’t draw a great schedule with only three home games and with three of the first four on the road, but the entire season is manageable.
Snake River: The Rattlers draw a pretty balanced schedule and with more experience should be able to take advantage of it. Snake River is the only six-man team that gets a home-road alternating schedule all season, and they got a good mix of what’s at home and what’s not.
Meeteetse: The Longhorns have some work to do before they can challenge six-man’s top teams, and the 2010 schedule doesn’t shape up too well. There are only three home games, but on the plus side, the Longhorns get some of their toughest competition at home (Guernsey, Hanna and Snake River).
Midwest: With a decent number of returners, the Oilers should be good again this fall, but they’ll get tested right away. Midwest gets a road date with Guernsey and a home matchup with Kaycee the first two weeks of the season. After that, the rest of the schedule is tolerable.
Ten Sleep: Numbers are always the concern for Ten Sleep, but for 2010 the schedule is interesting, too. The Pioneers have early road games against Hanna and Midwest but get both Kaycee and Guernsey at home late in the season.

Half-educated made in December top 5 picks for 2010: 1. Guernsey; 2. Kaycee; 3. Midwest; 4. Ten Sleep; 5. Hanna.

So there it is, your first glance at the 2010 season. What do you think — either about how the schedules break down or who might rise to the top next season? I’d love to hear your thoughts. Post a comment below and we’ll talk about it.

Looking forward to 2010….

–patrick

State championship shakeup for 1973-74

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Deciding mythical state champions has always been a difficult task to do.

Unfortunately, that’s how champions were decided in Wyoming from 1962-74 in the A, B and C classes, and from every year forward until a playoff was established in 1968 for Class AA schools.

Even now, more than 30 years later, who actually won those mythical championships is subject to debate.

With that in mind, I’m making a couple changes to my state champions listing to be more consistent.

Specifically, I’m talking about the state championship teams listed for 1973 and 1974. The teams listed as champions for the A, B and C classes for those years were the champions as decided by the Casper Star-Tribune. The champions listed for other “mythical” years were the winners of the UPI statewide polls or, in the case of 1962 before the UPI poll started, the Associated Press statewide polls.

Therefore, in order to remain consistent, I’ve decided to list the mythical champions of 1973 and 1974 as the winners of the UPI poll, not the winners of the Star-Tribune poll.

What does that mean?

Well, it means that some shared championships are going away. Green River won the UPI’s Class A poll in 1973 outright from Buffalo; therefore, Green River will be listed as the mythical champ, not as sharing it with Buffalo. And for 1974, Torrington won the UPI’s Class A poll, so they  will take sole control of the mythical championship rather than sharing it with Kemmerer; and in Class B, Tongue River won the top spot in the UPI poll, so the Eagles will take sole command of the Class B mythical title rather than sharing it with Saratoga. No UPI Class C poll was ever commissioned; therefore, Deaver-Frannie’s mythical Class C title of 1974 will be going away, too.

Of course, many more teams than the one listed in my champions listing still “claim” mythical championships, and I’m not the one to tell them that those championships aren’t any less valid than they were back then. I simply want to stay consistent in which poll I chose to compile my listing, hence these changes. These changes aren’t meant to slight any teams. If only we could have had a playoff to decide it all…. but I guess it’s too late for that now. The debate remains.

For reference, here were the final polls for the years 1973 and 1974, including the Class AA poll taken after the Class AA championship game:

1974
UPI polls
Class AA
1. Cheyenne East, 9-1, 50 points
2. Rawlins, 9-1, 38 points
3. Natrona, 7-2, 32 points
4. Worland, 7-1, 20 points
5. Riverton, 5-3, 10 points
Class A
1. Torrington, 9-0, 48 points
2. Kemmerer, 8-0, 40 points
3. Lovell, 7-1, 26 points
4. Jackson, 5-4, 10 points
5. Glenrock, 5-3, 8 points
Class B
1. Tongue River, 9-0, 48 points
2. Saratoga, 8-0, 40 points
3. Cokeville, 7-0-1, 18 points
4. Basin, 6-1-1, 10 points
5. Deaver-Frannie, 8-0, 8 points

Casper Star-Tribune polls
Class A
1t. Torrington, 9-0-0, 54 points
1t. Kemmerer, 9-0-0, 54 points
3. Lovell, 7-1-0, 43 points
4. Glenrock, 5-3-0, 35 points
5t. Newcastle, 5-4-0, 33 points
5t. Star Valley, 4-4-0, 33 points
Class B
1t. Saratoga, 8-0-0, 61 points
1t. Tongue River, 9-0-0, 61 points
3. Cokeville, 9-0-1, 57 points
4. Basin, 7-1-1, 55 points
5. Guernsey-Sunrise, 7-2-0, 49 points
Class C/Eight-man
1. Deaver-Frannie, 9-0-0, 39 points
2. Cowley, 8-1-0, 34 points

1973
UPI polls
Class AA
1. Laramie, 9-1, 50 points
2. Riverton, 7-3, 35 points
3. Natrona, 6-3, 22 points
4. Cheyenne East, 6-2-1, 14 points
5. Worland, 6-2-1, 12 points
Class A
1. Green River, 8-1, 56 points
2. Buffalo, 8-1, 46 points
3. Kemmerer, 8-2, 42 points
4. Torrington, 7-2, 16 points
5. Lovell, 6-2, 14 points
Class B-C
1. Tongue River, 9-0, 50 points
2. Byron, 9-0, 46 points
3. Cowley, 9-0, 40 points
4. Pinedale, 7-2, 25 points
5. Upton, 7-1-1, 14 points

Casper Star-Tribune polls
Class A
1t. Buffalo (3), 8-1, 78 points
1t. Green River (3), 8-1, 78 points
3. Kemmerer (1), 8-2, 74 points
4. Torrington, 7-2, 59 points
5. Lovell, 5-2, 58 points
Class B-C
1. Tongue River (4), 9-0, 87 points
2. Cowley (2), 9-0, 85 points
3. Byron (1), 9-0, 84 points
4. Guernsey-Sunrise, 7-2, 70 points
5. Pinedale, 7-2, 68 points

2009 WHSAA football power ratings: Glad or sad they’re gone?

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The Wyoming High School Activities Association’s eight-year experiment with power ratings came to a merciful close last fall. The 2009 season was a return to the past — using conference records to determine playoff qualifiers — but did it make any change?

Actually, if last year’s system was in place this year, only one of the playoff qualifiers would have changed: Powell would have made it in Class 3A and Riverton would have been bumped.

That’s the only change, but it’s interesting and important to note that the more common opponents teams have, the less relevant power ratings become. Such was the case this year — with nothing but common opponents in 4A and all but one week of common opponents in 2A and 1A 11-man.

For argument, though, here are this year’s WHSAA power ratings, class by class, with a little breakdown of how playoff qualifying would have broken down:

In Class 4A, it wouldn’t have mattered, since the power ratings can’t really influence anything if the teams only play each other round-robin style. The playoff pairings are exactly the same. For argument’s sake, though, here they are:
1. Sheridan 32.39
2. Cheyenne Central 31.28
3. Gillette 31.28
4. Green River 30.27
5. Kelly Walsh 29.06
6. Rock Springs 27.94
7. Laramie 26.83
8. Natrona 25.72
9. Cheyenne East 25.72
10. Evanston 24.03

In Class 3A…. There is the most room for change, because there are fewer common opponents in this division than in any other. With the East (Douglas) hosting the title game last year, the West top seed would have been No. 1 overall. (Note: All that’s missing is the result from Hardin, Mont., from Friday, which would bump Cody’s PR up or down a few decimals, but wouldn’t have affected playoff seeding anyway.)
1. Douglas 32.82
2. Buffalo 30.88
3. Star Valley 30.50
4. Cody 30.30
5. Worland 29.88
6. Torrington 29.07
7. Powell 28.50
8. Lander 28.38
9. Riverton 27.13
10. Jackson 25.75
11. Wheatland 24.44
12. Rawlins 23.25
Playoff Pairings: (8) Lander at (1W) Cody; (5) Star Valley at (2E) Buffalo; (6) Torrington at (2W) Worland; (7) Powell at (1E) Douglas

In both 2A and 1A 11-man, little would have changed because the systems, like the one in 4A, relies a ton on conference games….

In Class 2A… With both of last year’s hosts, Burns and Glenrock, in the East, the top seed would have gone to the West Conference champ… but little matter. Playoff pairings would have been exactly the same.
1. Glenrock 33.75
2. Kemmerer 32.63
3. Greybull 32.25
4. Thermopolis 31.88
5. Big Piney 30.88
6. Big Horn 30.00
7. Lovell 29.63
8. Wright 28.38
9. Burns 27.00
10. Moorcroft 26.88
11. Lyman 26.25
12. Pinedale 26.00
13. Mountain View 25.13
14. Wyoming Indian 25.00
15. Tongue River 24.63
16. Newcastle 23.75
Playoff  pairings: (8) Wright at (1W) Kemmerer; (5) Big Piney at (2E) Thermopolis; (6) Big Horn at (2W) Greybull; (7) Lovell at (1E) Glenrock.

In 1A 11-man… A couple first-round matchups would have been flipped around, with Riverside and Pine Bluffs cutting their travel down to play teams closer to home in the first round. With Burlington hosting last year, the top seed would have gone to the East Conference winner… The Dubois-Shoshoni game scheduled for Tuesday is omitted here; neither one was in the playoff hunt, and the result of that game would have had a negligible effect on the power ratings and wouldn’t have changed the playoff pairings.
1. Cokeville 33.11
2. Lingle 32.25
3. Southeast 32.00
4. Wind River 31.86
5. Lusk 31.13
6. Pine Bluffs 29.56
7. Riverside 29.49
8. Rocky Mountain 29.36
9. Burlington 28.76
10. Hulett 28.38
11. Saratoga 26.39
12. Sundance 26.13
13. Upton 25.81
14. Normative Services 25.13
Dubois, Shoshoni NA
Playoff pairings: (8) Rocky Mountain at (1E) Southeast; (5) Lusk at (2W) Wind River; (6) Pine Bluffs at (2E) Lingle; (7) Riverside at (1W) Cokeville.

In 1A six-man… without a defending state champion, the conference that earned hosting duties would have been assigned by the WHSAA. I’ve presented both options below. Oddly enough, the four East Conference teams went 1-4 in the power ratings… In either case, the first-round pairings would have been different in both options.
1. Guernsey 33.97
2. Midwest 31.95
3. Hanna 30.17
4. Kaycee 29.34
5. Ten Sleep 28.25
6. Snake River 27.03
7. Meeteetse 24.56
8. Farson 23.50
Playoff pairings with East winner as top seed: (8) Farson at (1E) Guernsey; (5) Hanna at (2W) Snake River; (6) Kaycee at (2E) Midwest; (7) Meeteetse at (1W) Ten Sleep.
Playoff pairings with West winner as top seed: (8) Farson at (1W) Ten Sleep; (5) Hanna at (2E) Midwest; (6) Kaycee at (2W) Snake River; (7) Meeteetse at (1E) Guernsey.

Like I said earlier today, I haven’t heard anyone whining about the loss of power ratings. After seeing this, though, what do you think? Still glad to see it gone, or do you think there were instances this year that give it cause for coming back? Let me know your opinion; post a comment below.

–patrick

Maxpreps preseason rankings

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The annual Maxpreps preseason rankings are out (click here for the Wyoming previews), and the Green River Wolves are in the overall No. 1 spot.

You can get pretty into the Maxpreps ratings, which rank the 11-man schools in Wyoming 1-54 (six-man schools aren’t ranked in the preseason for Wyoming, probably because so many schools are new). Burns is ranked tops in 2A and third overall; Douglas is No. 1 in 3A and fifth overall; and Wind River is the top 1A 11-man team and is 13th overall.

Take a look at the rankings, then let me know what you think: bogus or beautiful? Post a comment below.

Maxpreps and the Massey Ratings are the only computer rankings that I know of that rank high school teams throughout the year. Maxpreps generally gives small schools too much credit; Massey ratings are generally kinder to larger schools. Massey ratings usually take about three weeks to get up to speed, but once they do I’ll try to remember to post the rankings here each week.

Season kickoff is in two-plus days for the 4As…. nine-plus days for everyone else…. it’s starting to get fun.

–patrick

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