Week 3 picks: 4A’s big four and the rarity of repeat semifinalists

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Screen Shot 2015-09-11 at 7.10.21 AM

Some folks would buy this shirt because it reminds them of the good times of the early 2010s. Some folks would buy it to burn it.

The 2011 Class 4A playoffs brought a unique twist for Wyoming’s big schools.

For the first time in big-school history, the same four teams — Gillette, Cheyenne East, Sheridan and Natrona — reached the playoff’s semifinal round as the previous year.

The feat was unprecedented in the big school ranks and extremely rare outside the big-school division. In fact, only three other times in Wyoming’s football history have the same four teams reached the semifinals.

But then it happened again in 2012. And again in 2013. And again in 2014.

Let me translate that: The same four programs have been in the 4A semifinals for five consecutive years.

Not only is such a run unprecedented, it’s unfathomable given the state’s high school football history.

The first two occurrences of repeat semifinalists were more anomalistic than trendsetting: Burlington, Big Horn, Hulett and Meeteetse reached the Class 1A nine-man semifinals in both 1993 and 1994, while Star Valley, Riverton, Torrington and Lander made the Class 3A semifinals consecutively in 1994 and 1995.

Probably the closest parallel in Wyoming to the 4A string we’re seeing now came from 2001-03, when Mountain View, Lovell, Big Piney and Glenrock all reached the Class 3A semis for three consecutive years.

Those three occurrences — 1A nine-man in 1993-94, 3A in 1994-95 and 3A in 2001-03 — are the only times Wyoming had repeat semifinalists until the foursome of Cheyenne East, Gillette, Sheridan and Natrona put their recent lock on the 4A semifinals.

Those “Big Four” have had their way in the playoffs, too. Of the 20 first-round playoff games the past five years, only three finished within a possession — East 28, Evanston 27 in 2011; East 13, Central 7 in 2013; and Sheridan 10, Kelly Walsh 3 in 2010. Last year’s 4A quarterfinal games were decided by 21, 30, 43 and 45 points, an average margin of victory of almost 35 points.

This week, 4A’s “Big Four” play each other; it’s the only time this week that these four schools play against one another in the same week. East will be at Sheridan, while Gillette will be at Natrona.

So far this season, East, Gillette, Sheridan and Natrona are 10-0 against the other six teams in 4A.

Anomaly, trend, or the result of elite programs separating themselves from the pack.

Call it what you will.

The same four teams, five years in a row? Maybe six, if the same four teams survive and advance again? Maybe more?

Wyoming has never had a run like that. And may never have one like it again.

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Other games to watch this week:

You guys: Cokeville-Shoshoni. For reals. I could write all day about this series. I nearly did. Cokeville is 23-1 all-time in this series, with that one Shoshoni W coming in 1997. But this Friday might be the time the Wranglers finally break that curse. I’m still taking Cokeville, because Cokeville, but if Shoshoni can pull this one off, I’ll be sure to shoot off some fireworks on the Wranglers’ behalf. …

Speaking of Wranglers, when did Lovell-Pinedale get this interesting? Pinedale has been one of the most pleasant surprises of 2015 — they’re 2-0 for just the second time since 1991 — while Lovell bounced back big last week with its victory against Big Piney. I’m taking Lovell, but Pinedale’s success has my attention. …

Central-Rock Springs could be a season-maker for one of those squads. The Tigers already have as many victories as the past two years combined, while Central has hung tough with quality competition and knocked off rival South. Both have shown flashes of greatness. …

Pine Bluffs might be better than we think. This week’s game in Yoder against Southeast will be telling. …

The big question of the week: Will Riverside actually step foot on a field? The Rebels forfeited in Week 1 and were forfeited to in Week 2. Unprecedented. …

A host of other games stick out as potential nailbiters: Evanston-Laramie, Kelly Walsh-Cheyenne South, Buffalo-Worland, Dubois-Farson, Hulett-NSI. Curious to see how those come out.

On to the picks, in which I choose the teams I think will win the upcoming games for the week and denote those teams by putting their school’s name in bold. Like you didn’t know that. Pffft.

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Rock Springs
Cheyenne East at Sheridan
Evanston at Laramie
Gillette at Natrona
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne South
Class 3A
Buffalo at Worland
Douglas at Star Valley
Jackson at Rawlins
Lander at Cody
Powell at Riverton
Torrington at Green River
Class 2A
Burns at Mountain View
Glenrock at Big Horn
Greybull at Big Piney
Kemmerer at Lyman
Lovell at Pinedale
Newcastle at Wheatland
Thermopolis at Wright
Class 1A 11-man
Cokeville at Shoshoni
Lusk at Moorcroft
Pine Bluffs at Southeast
Riverside at Wind River
Saratoga at Rocky Mountain
Upton-Sundance at Tongue River
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Farson
Guernsey-Sunrise at Midwest
Hanna at St. Stephens
Rock River at Kaycee
Interstate
Lingle at Mitchell, Neb.
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Hulett at NSI
Meeteetse at Ten Sleep
Interclass
Natrona sophs at Snake River

For the second week in a row, Burlington will forfeit, and Wyoming Indian picks up the victory the Huskies gave up. The Chiefs’ losing streak is now officially over at 14 games.

For a full schedule including start times, click here.

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Everyone’s favorite pair of adorable brothers, Tad and Homer, made their picks as well:

Tad: Evanston over Laramie; Douglas over Star Valley; Torrington over Green River; Newcastle over Wheatland; Thermopolis over Wright; Riverside over Wind River; Upton-Sundance over Tongue River; Guernsey-Sunrise over Midwest; Hanna over St. Stephens; Hulett over Normative Services.

Homer: Laramie over Evanston; Star Valley over Douglas; Green River over Torrington; Wheatland over Newcastle; Wright over Thermopolis; Wind River over Riverside; Tongue River over Upton-Sundance; Midwest over Guernsey-Sunrise; St. Stephens over Hanna; Normative Services over Hulett.

Both: Cheyenne Central over Rock Springs; Sheridan over Cheyenne East; Natrona over Gillette; Kelly Walsh over Cheyenne South; Worland over Buffalo; Jackson over Rawlins; Cody over Lander; Powell over Riverton; Mountain View over Burns; Big Horn over Glenrock; Greybull over Big Piney; Kemmerer over Lyman; Lovell over Pinedale; Cokeville over Shoshoni; Lusk over Moorcroft; Southeast over Pine Bluffs; Rocky Mountain over Saratoga; Dubois over Farson; Ten Sleep over Meeteetse; Kaycee over Rock River; Lingle over Mitchell, Neb.; Snake River over Natrona sophs.

The records
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Rock Springs (Central 45-17-4 overall, Central 24-10-2 at this location)
Cheyenne East at Sheridan (Sheridan 24-12 overall, Sheridan 17-5 at this location)
Evanston at Laramie (Evanston 13-12 overall, Laramie 7-5 at this location)
Gillette at Natrona (Natrona 40-18 overall, Natrona 17-11 at this location)
Kelly Walsh at Cheyenne South (Kelly Walsh 4-0 overall, Kelly Walsh 2-0 at this location)
Class 3A
Buffalo at Worland (Worland 15-13 overall, Worland 7-6 at this location)
Douglas at Star Valley (Douglas 9-2 overall, Star Valley 2-1 at this location)
Jackson at Rawlins (Jackson 7-2 overall, Jackson 2-1 at this location)
Lander at Cody (Cody 50-16-3 overall, Cody 25-7-2 at this location)
Powell at Riverton (Powell 39-31-3 overall, Powell 18-17-2 at this location)
Torrington at Green River (Torrington 2-1 overall, first at this location)
Class 2A
Burns at Mountain View (Mountain View 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Glenrock at Big Horn (Big Horn 5-3 overall, Big Horn 2-0 at this location)
Greybull at Big Piney (Greybull 7-5 overall, Greybull 3-2 at this location)
Kemmerer at Lyman (Kemmerer 23-14 overall, Kemmerer 10-8 at this location)
Lovell at Pinedale (Lovell 9-1 overall, Lovell 5-1 at this location)
Newcastle at Wheatland (Newcastle 23-20-2 overall, tie 10-10-2 at this location)
Thermopolis at Wright (Thermopolis 3-2 overall, tie 1-1 at this location)
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Wyoming Indian (Burlington 17-4 overall, Burlington 7-3 at this location) (Wyoming Indian won this week by forfeit, records represent pre-forfeit status)
Cokeville at Shoshoni (Cokeville 23-1 overall, Cokeville 7-1 at this location)
Lusk at Moorcroft (Lusk 9-3 overall, Lusk 4-2 at this location)
Pine Bluffs at Southeast (Southeast 28-11 overall, Southeast 13-6 at this location)
Riverside at Wind River (Riverside 16-9 overall, tie 5-5 at this location)
Saratoga at Rocky Mountain (Rocky Mountain 6-1 overall, tie 1-1 at this location)
Upton-Sundance at Tongue River (Upton-Sundance 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Farson (Dubois 6-1 overall, Dubois 3-0 at this location)
Guernsey-Sunrise at Midwest (Guernsey-Sunrise 10-8 overall, tie 5-5 at this location)
Hanna at St. Stephens (Hanna 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Hulett at NSI (Hulett 7-5 overall, NSI 4-1 at this location)
Meeteetse at Ten Sleep (Ten Sleep 28-24-1 overall, Ten Sleep 16-13 at this location)
Rock River at Kaycee (Kaycee 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Interstate
Lingle at Mitchell, Neb. (Lingle 2-0 overall, Lingle 1-0 at this location)

Weekly reminder: Tad picks the series leader; Homer picks the location leader; when a series is tied, both Tad and Homer pick the home team. And they always pick a varsity team over a sub-varsity team.

Last week’s records: Patrick, 25-7 (78 percent); Tad, 19-13 (59 percent); Homer, 16-16 (50 percent).

Season records: Patrick, 59-15 (80 percent); Tad, 49-27 (64 percent); Homer, 40-34 (54 percent).

I think Week 3 may be one of the most difficult weeks of the season to predict. Lots of evenly matched teams will play this week, and we may look back on this week in about a month and realize a ton of key games were played on Sept. 18. So who’s ready to break through and be seen on a statewide stage? Post a comment and let’s talk it through.

–patrick

Lingle tentatively set for six-man play in 2016, 2017

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Lingle will move to the six-man football division for the 2016 and 2017 seasons, the Torrington Telegram reported today.

Lingle coach Kevin Derby told the Casper Star-Tribune the move was necessary to keep the program afloat, as the Doggers will only have about 15 or 16 players the next few years.

Lingle last played sub-11-man football in 1990, when it won the state nine-man championship. Prior to that, the school played six-man and eight-man football through the 1950s and 1960s, last playing six-man in 1956.

–patrick

Keeping up with the Camels; or, Co-ops Gone Wild!

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For a couple decades, Gillette has held a special place in the hearts of other Wyoming high schools’ fans: the most hated high school sports program in the state.

The hate arises from two key areas — jealousy and frustration. Jealousy comes from Gillette’s success; the Camels are consistently at or near the top of every sport it offers. Frustration spurs both from that jealousy of the Camels’ success as well as Gillette’s size; since the early 1990s, Gillette has had one of the largest (and, since Cheyenne opened South High in 2011, the largest) 9-12 enrollment tallies in the state.

Other Class 4A schools sing a similar refrain: Of course Gillette’s the best. It’s the biggest. The only one rooting for Goliath is Goliath’s mom.

The argument, of course, has numerous flaws. Success is not determined by size alone. Body counts mean nothing without the systems in place to help those “bodies” reach excellence, and Gillette has one of the best systems in the state.

Gillette will have the chance to prove that idea in the fall of 2017, when it is scheduled to open a new, comprehensive high school.

But what if the Campbell County School District had decided against a second high school? What if one high school remained the standard in Gillette, maybe for another decade or more? What if that depth turned Gillette into a dominating behemoth that racked up state championships in every sport, forcing other schools rack up participation ribbons instead? And what if the rest of the state’s frustration manifested itself into a beat-Gillette-at-all-costs mentality — one that focused on pooling talent, no matter the setbacks?

The quickest way to pool talent is through a co-op agreement. When a program can bring together the talent of two or three or more high schools onto the same team, that program will inevitably improve simply because of the raw number of bodies available.

For example, what would happen if we took Gillette’s longtime rival Sheridan and added to the Broncs’ roster players from the other Sheridan County schools Tongue River, Big Horn, NSI Academy and Arvada-Clearmont — and then threw in Johnson County schools Buffalo and Kaycee, just for good measure? We’d have a team rich with talent, that’s for sure.

Even then, the Sheridan-Johnson counties co-op would be 676 students smaller than Gillette.

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The crux of this fantasy situation is this: What if Wyoming’s high schools started preparing co-ops with the sole intention of knocking off a big, bad Gillette — a Gillette that, in our scenario, is bigger and badder and more dominant than ever?

The co-ops, of course, would have to play by some rules. They would first have to be somewhat geographically feasible, playing by county lines and school district lines whenever possible. Second, co-ops wouldn’t be able to split up any existing schools. And last, co-ops would have to play by this ground rule: no bigger than Gillette, which has a current WHSAA average daily membership (fancy way of saying enrollment) of 2,439 students 9-12.

(Yes, I know, this is not how the WHSAA defines enrollment for a co-op. But stick with me for the sake of argument.)

The goal here isn’t beating Gillette. The goal is beating Gillette at its own game. That means joining forces for good, not for evil. So you won’t see any 10,000-student super-co-ops here. Beating Goliath with SuperGoliath 2.0 brings no satisfaction.

If Wyoming high schools went through all the rigmarole of forming co-ops following those three rules, we’d end up with 14 semi-feasible high school teams in the state:

Sheridan-Johnson: a co-op of Sheridan, Big Horn, Tongue River, Arvada-Clearmont, NSI Academy, Buffalo and Kaycee. Combined ADM of 1,763 (676 smaller than Gillette).

East Border: a co-op of Crook, Weston, Niobrara, Goshen and Platte counties as well as Wright (Wheatland, Glendo, Guernsey, Chugwater, Lusk, Torrington, Southeast, Lingle, Newcastle, Wright, Moorcroft, Sundance, Upton and Hulett). Combined ADM of 1,867.5 (571.5 smaller than Gillette).

KW-C-M (Kelly Walsh-Converse County-Midwest): a co-op of Kelly Walsh, Douglas, Glenrock and Midwest. Combined ADM of 2,194.5 (289.5 smaller than Gillette).

Cheyenne South-ELC (East Laramie County): a co-op of Cheyenne South, Burns and Pine Bluffs. Combined ADM of 1,498 (941 smaller than Gillette).

Albany-Carbon: a co-op of Laramie, Rock River, Rawlins, Hanna, Encampment, Snake River and Saratoga. Combined ADM of 1,783.5 (655.5 smaller than Gillette).

Northwest: a co-op of Park, Big Horn and Washakie counties (Cody, Powell, Lovell, Rocky Mountain, Greybull, Riverside, Burlington, Meeteetse, Worland and Ten Sleep). Combined ADM of 2,333.5 (105.5 smaller than Gillette).

Sweetwater: a co-op of Rock Springs, Green River and Farson. Combined ADM of 2,426.5 (12.5 smaller than Gillette).

Uinta-Lincoln: a co-op of Evanston, Mountain View, Lyman, Star Valley, Kemmerer and Cokeville. Combined ADM of 2,310.5 (128.5 smaller than Gillette).

Fremont-Hot Springs: a co-op of Riverton, Lander, Wyoming Indian, Wind River, Shoshoni, St. Stephens, Dubois, Fort Washakie Charter, Arapahoe Charter and Thermopolis. Combined ADM of 2,102.1 (336.9 smaller than Gillette).

Teton-Sublette: a co-op of Jackson, Pinedale and Big Piney. Combined ADM of 1,174 (1,265 smaller than Gillette).

The surviving standalone schools are:

Natrona: ADM of 2,183.5 (255.5 smaller than Gillette).

Cheyenne East: ADM of 1,468 (971 smaller than Gillette).

Cheyenne Central: ADM of 1,268.5 (1,170.5 smaller than Gillette).

The estimated borders of Wyoming's 14 Gillette-sized high schools.

The estimated borders of Wyoming’s 14 Gillette-sized high schools.

Those 14 programs could roughly split into two conferences, either north-south or east-west:

North Conference: Gillette (2,439); KW-C-M (2,194.5); East Border (1,867.5); Sheridan-Johnson (1,763); Northwest (2,333.5); Natrona (2,183.5); Fremont-Hot Springs (2,102.1)

South Conference: Cheyenne South-ELC (1,498); Cheyenne East (1,468); Cheyenne Central (1,268.5); Sweetwater (2,426.5); Uinta-Lincoln (2,310.5); Albany-Carbon (1,783.5); Teton-Sublette (1,174)

OR:

East Conference: Gillette (2,439); KW-C-M (2,194.5); East Border (1,867.5); Sheridan-Johnson (1,763); Cheyenne South-ELC (1,498); Cheyenne East (1,468); Cheyenne Central (1,268.5)

West Conference: Sweetwater (2,426.5); Northwest (2,333.5); Uinta-Lincoln (2,310.5); Natrona (2,183.5); Fremont-Hot Springs (2,102.1); Albany-Carbon (1,783.5); Teton-Sublette (1,174)

Take a moment to think about the potential teams that could arise from such co-ops — deep, talented, capable of continuous competitiveness.

Kind of like Gillette.

A lot of the hate on Gillette is unjustified. Size is not everything.

As we can see in these potential co-ops, though, size sure helps.

–patrick

Week 2 picks: The sting of a blowout, the ache of obsolescence

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The most overlooked game of Week 2 — heck, maybe the most overlooked game of the season — will probably be played Friday night in Pavillion.

Logically, the game between Wind River and Wyoming Indian won’t, and shouldn’t, get a lot of statewide attention. After all, no other Wyoming teams lost their Week 1 games by as many points as the Chiefs and Cougars did.

Wyoming Indian lost its season opener to Moorcroft 61-0. Wind River lost its season opener to Upton-Sundance 67-0.

On Friday, they play each other.

The statistical anomaly initially attracted me — the teams with the two biggest losses in the state playing each other seven days later doesn’t happen often. But thinking about this game got me thinking about the feeling that exists on the losing side of a blowout, especially in a season opener.

Week 1 is the litmus test for nine months’ worth of offseason preparation. When all that effort and time results in a huge shutout loss, it can’t help but sting.

The Cougars will host the game, trying to rebound from statistically the worst loss in program history. Entering the season, Wind River had never lost a game by more than 56 points; they lost in Week 1 by 67. How much does that hurt? Consider this: The Cougars spent all offseason preparing, knowing that the Upton-Sundance game would be their gauge for 2015. First-year coach Mykah Trujillo brought enthusiasm and energy to the program. Then came three weeks of preseason practice. All that mental and physical effort, and… 67-0. Oof.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, still fight hard. But they’ve lost 13 in a row dating back to September 2013, when the program was in its lone year of six-man play. The Chiefs haven’t won an 11-man game since 2011, when they beat… Wind River. In fact, that game is WIHS’s only 11-man victory in the 2010s. The reasons for Wyoming Indian’s football struggles are complex. That doesn’t mean the losing hurts any less for the guys in the Chiefs’ locker room.

When big victories seem out of reach, little ones become so much more important. Those little victories don’t happen on the scoreboard in a game that finishes 61-0 or 67-0. They manifest themselves as trust, as confidence; they show in effort, in improvement. In the best cases, the young men who play become better men, both mentally and physically, even if the Ws aren’t as consistent as they would like them to be.

Week 2 gives both teams a chance to overcome that sting, if even for an evening, or a moment. That evening and those moments won’t mean much around the state, but for the players in those helmets, and their coaches and parents and families, this evening and those moments have the potential to last a lifetime.

That is why the game between Wind River and Wyoming Indian deserves your attention.

That is why the game of football deserves your attention.

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Some other things I’m keeping an eye on in Week 2:

Kaycee and Guernsey playing this early in the season just doesn’t feel right. This game will go a long way in deciding the 1A six-man East Conference title, and that feels more like a Week 8 responsibility than a Week 2 responsibility. …

I’m really curious to see how Star Valley and Riverton stack up against each other. They both had impressive Week 1 victories, so this game should be good for both squads to improve and gauge their potential at a 3A title run. …

Upton-Sundance at Lusk could be spectacular, maybe the best game of the week. Both teams are coming off massive victories and want to stake their claim as contenders early. …

I’m curious to see how both Greybull and Riverside respond to taking Week 1 off. Greybull draws defending 2A champ Mountain View, while Riverside gets regional rival Burlington. First-game jitters? …

Don’t forget about NSI, either, which plays its first game against Rock River after taking Week 1 off. …

Kelly Walsh had to play my top two 4A teams (Sheridan and Gillette) the first two weeks of the season. I’m interested to see what happens when the Trojans play Rock Springs — which got a big W last week against Laramie — to see if the brutal start to the season was a blessing in disguise or a suicide mission. …

Since 1991, Pinedale has gone 2-0 to start a season just once (2002). A victory against Kemmerer would make the Wranglers 2-0 to start 2015. …

Moorcroft plays its first home night game with a 7 p.m. kickoff against Tongue River. And, of course, Tongue River played its first home night game last week. …

Snake River-Meeteetse is huge. Huuuuuge. Just like Kaycee-Guernsey in the East, this game will likely affect who finishes atop the 1A six-man West.

On to this week’s picks, where the team I think will win is in bold type. A bold font only makes sense for some bold picks:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne South at Cheyenne East
Gillette at Cheyenne Central
Natrona at Laramie
Rock Springs at Kelly Walsh
Sheridan at Evanston
Class 3A
Buffalo at Powell
Cody at Douglas
Green River at Rawlins
Jackson at Lander
Star Valley at Riverton
Torrington at Worland
Class 2A
Big Horn at Lyman
Big Piney at Lovell
Burns at Newcastle
Mountain View at Greybull
Pinedale at Kemmerer
Wheatland at Thermopolis
Wright at Glenrock
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Riverside
Cokeville at Saratoga
Lingle at Pine Bluffs
Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain
Tongue River at Moorcroft
Upton-Sundance at Lusk
Wyoming Indian at Wind River
Class 1A six-man
Kaycee at Guernsey-Sunrise
NSI at Rock River
St. Stephens at Dubois
Snake River at Meeteetse
Interclass
Farson at Evanston JV
Interstate
Bayard, Neb., at Southeast
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Hanna vs. Hulett (at Midwest)
Midwest at Ten Sleep

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The resident brosephs, Tad and Homer, have their picks this week too:

Tad: Gillette over Cheyenne Central; Natrona over Laramie; Big Horn over Lyman; Newcastle over Burns; Mountain View over Greybull; Normative Services over Rock River; Bayard, Neb., over Southeast.

Homer: Cheyenne Central over Gillette; Laramie over Natrona; Lyman over Big Horn; Burns over Newcastle; Greybull over Mountain View; Rock River over Normative Services; Southeast over Bayard, Neb.

Both: Cheyenne East over Cheyenne South; Kelly Walsh over Rock Springs; Sheridan over Evanston; Powell over Buffalo; Douglas over Cody; Rawlins over Green River; Lander over Jackson; Riverton over Star Valley; Worland over Torrington; Lovell over Big Piney; Pinedale over Kemmerer; Wheatland over Thermopolis; Glenrock over Wright; Riverside over Burlington; Cokeville over Saratoga; Lingle over Pine Bluffs; Rocky Mountain over Shoshoni; Tongue River over Moorcroft; Lusk over Upton-Sundance; Wind River over Wyoming Indian; Hulett over Hanna; Guernsey-Sunrise over Kaycee; Ten Sleep over Midwest; Dubois over St. Stephens; Snake River over Meeteetse; Farson over Evanston JV.

The records
Class 4A
Cheyenne South at Cheyenne East (East 4-0 overall, East 2-0 at this location)
Gillette at Cheyenne Central (Gillette 26-24 overall, Central 17-8 at this location)
Natrona at Laramie (Natrona 48-34-1 overall, tie 18-18-1 at this location)
Rock Springs at Kelly Walsh (Kelly Walsh 15-10 overall, Kelly Walsh 7-4 at this location)
Sheridan at Evanston (Sheridan 13-2 overall, Sheridan 7-1 at this location)
Class 3A
Buffalo at Powell (Powell 20-18 overall, Powell 10-7 at this location)
Cody at Douglas (Douglas 6-1 overall, Douglas 3-0 at this location)
Green River at Rawlins (Rawlins 22-18-7 overall, Rawlins 12-9-2 at this location)
Jackson at Lander (Lander 22-13 overall, Lander 13-5 at this location)
Star Valley at Riverton (Riverton 10-4 overall, Riverton 5-0 at this location)
Torrington at Worland (Worland 8-5 overall, Worland 4-2 at this location)
Class 2A
Big Horn at Lyman (Big Horn 2-1 overall, Lyman 1-0 at this location)
Big Piney at Lovell (Lovell 8-4 overall, Lovell 5-1 at this location)
Burns at Newcastle (Newcastle 4-2 overall, Burns 2-1 at this location)
Mountain View at Greybull (Mountain View 6-3 overall, Greybull 2-1 at this location)
Pinedale at Kemmerer (Kemmerer 23-8 overall, Kemmerer 13-2 at this location)
Wheatland at Thermopolis (Wheatland 5-1 overall, Wheatland 2-1 at this location)
Wright at Glenrock (Glenrock 17-3 overall, Glenrock 8-2 at this location)
Class 1A 11-man
Burlington at Riverside (Riverside 14-11 overall, Riverside 6-5 at this location)
Cokeville at Saratoga (Cokeville 22-5 overall, Cokeville 10-2 at this location)
Lingle at Pine Bluffs (Lingle 39-22-2 overall, Lingle 19-9-1 at this location)
Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain (Rocky Mountain 12-8 overall, Rocky Mountain 6-3 at this location)
Tongue River at Moorcroft (Tongue River 31-21 overall, Tongue River 13-11 at this location)
Upton-Sundance at Lusk (Lusk 4-0 overall, Lusk 2-0 at this location)
Wyoming Indian at Wind River (Wind River 24-6 overall, Wind River 12-2 at this location)
Class 1A six-man
Hanna at Hulett (Hulett 6-3 overall, game will be at neutral location but Homer will go with the team listed as the official home team, in this case Hulett)
Kaycee at Guernsey-Sunrise (Guernsey-Sunrise 4-1 overall, Guernsey-Sunrise 1-0 at this location)
Midwest at Ten Sleep (Ten Sleep 10-7 overall, Ten Sleep 6-2 at this location)
NSI at Rock River (NSI 1-0 overall, first at this location)
St. Stephens at Dubois (Dubois 2-0 overall, Dubois 1-0 at this location)
Snake River at Meeteetse (Snake River 6-1 overall, Snake River 2-0 at this location)
Interstate
Bayard, Neb., at Southeast (Bay 1-0 overall, first at this location)

Weekly reminder: Tad picks the series leader; Homer picks the location leader; when a series is tied, both Tad and Homer pick the home team. New rule this week: They always pick the varsity team when it plays a sub-varsity team.

Last week’s records: Patrick, 27-5 (84 percent); Tad, 24-8 (75 percent); Homer, 18-14 (56 percent).

Season records: Patrick, 34-8 (81 percent); Tad, 30-12 (71 percent); Homer, 24-18 (57 percent).

What game in Week 2 is on the top of your list? Any potential upsets coming this week? Post your thoughts via a comment and we can chat! It’s the magic of the internet!

–patrick

Week 1 picks: Series where home field means the most — and the least

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When Green River and Riverton play each other, home field means everything.

In the 34 games between the Wolves and Wolverines, both teams have had pretty good success against the other at home, but road games have been much tougher.

Riverton has won 11 of its 18 games against Green River on its home field. But on the road, the Wolverines have won only once in 16 games.

In the case of this series, where the game is played has a huge influence on the outcome. That difference of .549 points in winning percentage is the highest difference between home and road games of any in-state series in the state with at least 20 games played.

They play each other Friday. And it’s critical to note that the game will be in Green River.

—

When Mountain View and Kemmerer play, home field means everything, too.

Just the other way around.

In the 36 games between the Buffalos and Rangers, each team has had more success on the road.

Mountain View has won 14 games in 19 tries in Kemmerer but has won only six times in 17 games at home. And the .384 points difference between home and road games for those two squads is both extremely weird and the highest among in-state series of at least 20 games.

—

Most series slant toward the home team. In fact, the home team wins 56 percent of the time in Wyoming high school football games, and every active Wyoming program has a better winning percentage at home than on the road.

But when we break down home-field winning percentage to a team-by-team series level, some weird anomalies — like the Riverton-Green River series and the Kemmerer-Mountain View series — emerge.

I’ve broken out some of the top series where home field seems to bring good luck or bad luck to the home teams. I looked at all in-state series of at least 20 games played of active programs only (plus Upton and Sundance). Oddly enough, three of the top eight involve Green River. Here’s what I found:

Series record is at least a +.300 difference (home teams win more often)
1. Green River-Riverton (Green River .938 at home, Riverton .611 at home, .549 difference, 34 games)
2. Kemmerer-Thermopolis (Kemmerer .818 at home, Thermopolis .667 at home, .485 difference, 28 games)
3. Rocky Mountain-Wind River (Rocky Mountain .933 at home, Wind River .545 at home, .479 difference, 26 games)
4. Sundance-Wright (Sundance .769 at home, Wright .636 at home, .406 difference, 24 games)
5. Cody-Green River (Cody .833 at home, Green River .600 at home, .433 difference, 22 games)
6. Greybull-Lander (Greybull .727 home, Lander .694 at home, .422 difference, 30 games)
7. Cheyenne Central-Gillette (Central .680 at home, Gillette .720 at home, .400 difference, 50 games)
8. Cheyenne East-Green River (East .692 at home, Green River .700 at home, .392 difference, 23 games)
9. Glenrock-Moorcroft (Glenrock .833 at home, Moorcroft .550 at home, .383 difference, 22 games)
10. Midwest-Tongue River (Midwest .667 at home, Tongue River .692 at home, .359 difference, 25 games)
Other series where there’s at least a .300-point difference: Gillette-Green River (Gillette .909 home, Green River .444 at home, .354 difference, 20 games); Jackson-Worland (Jackson .615 at home, Worland .737 at home, .352 difference, 32 games); Lander-Star Valley (Lander .462 at home, Star Valley .867 at home, .328 difference, 29 games); Hanna-Pinedale (Hanna .778 at home, Pinedale .550 at home, .328 difference, 20 games); Buffalo-Glenrock (Buffalo .889 at home, Glenrock .437 at home, .326 difference, 34 games); Kelly Walsh-Laramie (Kelly Walsh .611 at home, Laramie .714 at home, .325 difference, 39 games); Cokeville-Mountain View (Cokeville .813 at home, Mountain View .500 at home, .313 difference, 52 games); Cheyenne East-Sheridan (East .538 at home, Sheridan .773 at home, .311 difference, 36 games); Cheyenne East-Rock Springs (East .696 at home, Rock Springs .611 at home, .307 difference, 41 games); Powell-Star Valley (Powell .471 at home, Star Valley .833 at home, .304 difference, 36 games); Rawlins-Torrington (Rawlins .333 at home, Torrington .969 at home, .302 difference, 31 games); Burlington-Wyoming Indian (Burlington 1.00 at home, Wyoming Indian .300 at home, .300 difference, 21 games); Newcastle-Thermopolis (Newcastle .500 home, Thermopolis .800 at home, .300 difference, 25 games); Gillette-Rock Springs (Gillette .900 at home, Rock Springs .400 at home, .300 difference, 20 games).

+++

Now for the even weirder anomaly: Series where the road team wins more often. The Kemmerer-Mountain View series is by far the most unusual statistical series in home-road difference:

Series record is at least a -.100 difference (road teams win more often)
1. Kemmerer-Mountain View (Kemmerer .263 at home, Mountain View .353 at home, -.384 difference, 36 games)
2. Pinedale-Saratoga (Pinedale .385 at home, Saratoga .357 at home, -.258 difference, 28 games)
3. Evanston-Laramie (Evanston .417 at home, Laramie .385 at home, -.199 difference, 25 games)
4. Cody-Star Valley (Cody .231 at home, Star Valley .588 at home, -.198 difference, 27 games)
5. Lingle-Southeast (Lingle .222 at home, Southeast .588 at home, -.190 difference, 36 games)
6. Green River-Laramie (Green River .385 at home, Laramie .433 at home, -.182 difference, 28 games)
7. (tie) Moorcroft-Newcastle (Moorcroft .273 at home, Newcastle .556 at home, -.172 difference, 20 games)
7. (tie) Riverside-Shoshoni (Riverside .556 at home, Shoshoni .273 at home, -.172 difference, 20 games)
9. Powell-Thermopolis (Powell .727 at home, Thermopolis .125 at home, -.148 difference, 47 games)
10. (tie) Buffalo-Thermopolis (Buffalo .429 at home, Thermopolis .429 at home, -.143 difference, 49 games)
10. (tie) Natrona-Riverton (Natrona .857 at home, Riverton .000 at home, -.143 difference, 26 games)
Other series where there’s at least a -.100-point difference: Cody-Rawlins (Cody .667 at home, Rawlins .211 at home, -.123 difference, 37 games); Lusk-Pine Bluffs (Lusk .765 at home, Pine Bluffs .118 at home, -.118 difference, 35 games); Dubois-Wind River (Dubois .412 at home, Wind River .474 at home, -.115 difference, 37 games) Douglas-Midwest (Douglas .692 at home, Midwest .200 at home, -.108 difference, 24 games); Pine Bluffs-Southeast (Pine Bluffs .211 at home, Southeast .684 at home, -.105 difference, 39 games); Glenrock-Thermopolis (Glenrock .563 at home, Thermopolis .333 at home, -.104 difference, 32 games); Buffalo-Torrington (Buffalo .400 at home, Torrington .500 at home, -.100 difference, 38 games); Glenrock-Lingle (Glenrock .750 at home, Lingle .15o at home, -.100 difference, 23 games); Glenrock-Wright (Glenrock .800 at home, Wright .100 at home, -.100 difference, 20 games)

+++

Some thoughts on the first full week of football in the Equality State:

The underrated game of the week will be Big Piney-Shoshoni. Both programs should be improved, but I like Shoshoni’s chances. … It’s not necessarily an upset pick, but I’ve got St. Stephens beating Rock River for the program’s first victory since coming back to the varsity level in 2013. … Central-South will be a doozy. This one will be good for lots of reasons, chief among them is that both programs need this victory to rebuild confidence after tough losses last week. … I’m also keeping a close eye on Rocky Mountain-Tongue River. The Eagles’ success last year was in part spurred on by their big W over the Grizzlies in Week 1 last year. … I know I talked a lot about Green River-Riverton, but I’m actually taking the road team (Riverton) this time. But watch out for Green River. I think the Wolves will be better this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win at home. Obviously.

On to this week’s picks. As usual, projected winners are bolded. Because italics are for tiddlywinks.

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne South
Cheyenne East at Natrona
Evanston at Gillette
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan
Laramie at Rock Springs
Class 3A
Cody at Buffalo
Douglas at Powell
Riverton at Green River
Worland at Lander
Class 2A
Lovell at Big Horn
Lyman at Wheatland
Pinedale at Thermopolis
Class 1A 11-man
Lusk at Burlington
Moorcroft at Wyoming Indian
Rocky Mountain at Tongue River
Saratoga at Lingle
Wind River at Upton-Sundance
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Midwest
Hulett at Meeteetse
Snake River at Hanna
Ten Sleep at Kaycee
Interclass
Big Piney at Shoshoni
Glenrock at Torrington
Mountain View at Cokeville
Pine Bluffs at Burns
Rawlins at Kemmerer
Southeast at Wright
Interstate
Newcastle at Lead-Deadwood, S.D.
North Fremont, Idaho, at Jackson
Star Valley at Preston, Idaho
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey-Sunrise at Dubois
St. Stephens at Rock River
Open: NSI.

Riverside has forfeited its Week 1 game against Greybull.

+++

Brothers Tad and Homer have their picks to make, too. Here’s who they’ve got winning this week, starting with the games that they’ve picked differently, and the records on which they based those picks (Greybull-Riverside pick removed but record retained):

Tad: Worland over Lander; Lusk over Burlington; Moorcroft over Wyoming Indian; Guernsey-Sunrise over Dubois; Torrington over Glenrock; Pine Bluffs over Burns.

Homer: Lander over Worland; Burlington over Lusk; Wyoming Indian over Moorcroft; Dubois over Guernsey-Sunrise; Glenrock over Torrington; Burns over Pine Bluffs.

Both: Cheyenne Central over Cheyenne South; Natrona over Cheyenne East; Gillette over Evanston; Sheridan over Kelly Walsh; Laramie over Rock Springs; Cody over Buffalo; Powell over Douglas; Green River over Riverton; Big Horn over Lovell; Wheatland over Lyman; Thermopolis over Pinedale; Rocky Mountain over Tongue River; Lingle over Saratoga; Upton-Sundance over Wind River; Midwest over Farson; Hulett over Meeteetse; Rock River over St. Stephens; Hanna over Snake River; Kaycee over Ten Sleep; Shoshoni over Big Piney; Cokeville over Mountain View; Rawlins over Kemmerer; Southeast over Wright; Lead-Deadwood, S.D., over Newcastle; Jackson over North Fremont, Idaho; Star Valley over Preston, Idaho.

The records
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne South (Central 3-1 overall, Central 2-0 at this location)
Cheyenne East at Natrona (Natrona 40-18 overall, Natrona 21-9 at this location)
Evanston at Gillette (Gillette 9-2 overall, Gillette 4-1 at this location)
Kelly Walsh at Sheridan (Sheridan 32-21 overall, Sheridan 20-9 at this location)
Laramie at Rock Springs (Laramie 47-33 overall, Laramie 20-18 at this location)
Class 3A
Cody at Buffalo (Cody 4-2-1 overall, Cody 1-0 at this location)
Douglas at Powell (Powell 7-2 overall, tie 1-1 at this location)
Riverton at Green River (Green River 22-12 overall, Green River 15-1 at this location)
Worland at Lander (Worland 44-37-1 overall, Lander 21-20 at this location)
Class 2A
Lovell at Big Horn (Big Horn 3-1; tie 1-1 at this location)
Lyman at Wheatland (Wheatland 3-1 overall, Wheatland 1-0 at this location)
Pinedale at Thermopolis (Thermopolis 7-1 overall, Thermopolis 2-1 at this location)
Class 1A 11-man
Lusk at Burlington (Lusk 3-0 overall, first at this location)
Moorcroft at Wyoming Indian (Moorcroft 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Rocky Mountain at Tongue River (Rocky Mountain 12-4 overall, Rocky Mountain 6-2 at this location)
Saratoga at Lingle (Lingle 17-9 overall, Lingle 9-5 at this location)
Wind River at Upton-Sundance (Upton-Sundance 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Class 1A six-man
Farson at Midwest (Midwest 5-2 overall, Midwest 3-0 at this location)
Guernsey-Sunrise at Dubois (Guernsey-Sunrise 3-2 overall, Dubois 1-0 at this location)
Hulett at Meeteetse (Meeteetse 5-4 overall, Meeteetse 3-0 at this location)
St. Stephens at Rock River (Rock River 1-0 overall, first at this location)
Snake River at Hanna (Hanna 7-6 overall, Hanna 3-2 at this location)
Ten Sleep at Kaycee (Kaycee 5-1 overall, Kaycee 2-0 at this location)
Interclass
Big Piney at Shoshoni (tie 1-1 overall, Shoshoni 1-0 at this location)
Glenrock at Torrington (Torrington 12-6 overall, Glenrock 5-4 at this location)
Mountain View at Cokeville (Cokeville 33-18-1 overall, Cokeville 19-4-1 at this location)
Pine Bluffs at Burns (Pine Bluffs 29-21 overall, tie 11-11 at this location)
Rawlins at Kemmerer (Rawlins 18-6-2 overall, Rawlins 8-4 at this location)
Riverside at Greybull (Greybull 15-13 overall, tie 7-7 at this location)
Southeast at Wright (Southeast 6-3 overall, Southeast 2-1 at this location)
Interstate
Newcastle at Lead-Deadwood, S.D. (Lead-Deadwood 25-17-1 overall, Lead-Deadwood 15-6 at this location)
North Fremont, Idaho, at Jackson (Jackson 4-3 overall, Jackson 2-1 at this location)
Star Valley at Preston, Idaho (Star Valley 7-3 overall, Star Valley 2-1 at this location)

Weekly reminder: Tad picks the series leader; Homer picks the location leader; when a series is tied, both Tad and Homer pick the home team.

Last week’s records: Patrick, 7-3; Tad, 6-4; Homer, 6-4.

Season records: Patrick, 7-3; Tad, 6-4; Homer, 6-4.

And now it’s your turn. Who’s your choice for a big blowout or a surprising upset in Week 1? Post a comment and let’s get the 2015 season going right!

–patrick

Wyoming high school football preview magazine is out for 2015!

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The annual Wyoming high school football preview magazine — with previews of every team in the state — is now out!

Hard copies of the magazine will be available soon at the locations of the advertisers who bought space in the magazine. The digital edition requires Flash and is best viewed on a desktop.

The magazine is by far the most comprehensive look at Wyoming high school football heading into the 2015 season. Every team has a full preview, including a listing of the schedule and that team’s key returning players. Every coach in the state took part in interviews over the summer for their team’s preview.

The magazine is a collaborative effort between wyoming-football.com and staff at idahsports.com.

Download your copy today! And pick up the hard copy at the advertisers who so generously supported this effort.

–patrick

What we can glean from a decade of preseason predictions

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The 2015 season will be my 11th making public predictions in advance of a Wyoming high school football season.

Some predictions have worked out. Even more have not.

 

I started making predictions in 2005, my first year with the Casper Star-Tribune. Since leaving the CST in 2009, I have continued making preseason picks on this blog.

The methods have varied from year to year, and it wasn’t until 2011 that I started picking every place for every conference. In those four years of preseason picks, I’ve nailed down a team’s end-of-season spot in its respective conference standings 110 times. I’ve missed it 141 times.

Big misses motivate me to do better. My worst single pick came in 2011, when I picked Rocky Mountain to finish second in the Class 1A 11-man East; the Grizzlies finished seventh. I also missed big on Natrona in 2011 (picked fifth, finished first), Shoshoni in 2011 (picked eighth, finished fourth), Big Horn in 2012 (picked fifth, finished first) and Saratoga in 2012 (picked second, finished sixth).

As I looked deeper at my picks, I tried to decipher where I go wrong and how I can improve my preseason predictions. I looked at classifications (am I better at some classes than others?) as well as individual teams (do I perennially overrate or underrate certain programs?).

Here’s what I found:

Patrick’s most overrated teams, since 2011: Evanston (-6), Rock Springs (-5), Burns (-5), Buffalo (-4), Powell (-4), Southeast (-4).

Patrick’s most underrated teams, since 2011: Shoshoni (+7), Kelly Walsh (+4), Jackson (+4).

(The number represents the total number of places in the conference standings that these teams have finished compared to my predictions. It’s an aggregate number since 2011.)

+++

I also tried to look at the teams with the most variance — not necessarily whether the team finished better or worse than my prediction but if they finished differently than what I had picked. The numbers in parentheses here represent those the absolute values of the placings of the programs as compared to my picks.

Patrick’s easiest teams to pick, since 2011: Cokeville (0), Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Douglas, Riverton, Pine Bluffs, Wyoming Indian, Kaycee, Midwest, Hulett, NSI, Dubois, Snake River (1).

Patrick’s toughest teams to pick, since 2011: Natrona (8), Rocky Mountain (8), Rock Springs (7), Burns (7), Shoshoni (7), Saratoga (7).

+++

When I broke my predictions down by class, I found that when I looked at the total potential points available and my variance from that, I found that I was best at picking Class 1A six-man (15.1 percent variance) and worst at picking Class 2A (25.3 percent). In between were Class 4A (18.2 percent), Class 1A 11-man (24 percent) and Class 3A (25 percent).

In my defense, I’d argue that six-man is simply more predictable than 2A….

+++

My state title predictions, meanwhile, date back the full 11 years to 2005 (with the exception of 2011, when I only did conference predictions but no full state predictions and no published preseason top five). In those 10 years, I’ve successfully picked the state champion in the preseason less than half the time (23 out of 50).

However, only a handful of preseason No. 1 choices didn’t reach the title game, and even fewer preseason No. 1s (Powell in 2014, Natrona in 2007, Tongue River in 2007 and Big Horn in 2006) didn’t reach the semifinals. Every preseason No. 1 made the playoffs, though…

And almost every eventual state champion was ranked in my preseason top two. Only five times did the eventual state champ come from outside my preseason top five (Snake River and Thermopolis in 2010, Cheyenne East and Jackson in 2007 and Kemmerer in 2005).

+++

The tl;dr version? I’ve picked the state champion right in the preseason less than half the time. Natrona and Rocky Mountain are hard to pick; Cokeville’s easy. I overrate Evanston and underrate Shoshoni. I’m good at picking six-man and not so good at 2A.

Most of all, preseason predictions are for fun. On the scoreboard, they mean absolutely nothing. These preseason rankings have no effect on the result of any single game. You’ll notice my site doesn’t track preseason polls; it tracks game results.

Part of the beauty of a season is the season itself. Teams rise past expectations — or fall short — all the time. Injuries, slumps, streaks, upsets and distractions affect seasons way more than what we talk about in the preseason.

No matter what the preseason ranking, every team starts 0-0. There’s a certain amount of beauty in that.

–patrick

Week 0 picks: Central and Natrona renew Wyoming’s longest continuous high school football series

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When Cheyenne Central opens the 2015 season on Friday in Casper against Natrona, the Indians and Mustangs will extend a tradition that dates back 96 years.

The two schools have played each other every season since 1920, the longest such streak in state history — and a streak that shows no signs of stopping any time soon.

Although the two schools first played each other in 1908, they’ve played each other in every season since 1920. Of course, in 1920, Wyoming schools didn’t have many options: Only six schools in the state had football teams.

Central and Natrona have been on each other’s regular-season schedules for 95 of those 96 years. In 2004, the two teams did not have a regular-season game scheduled, but they met in the Class 5A playoff semifinals to continue their consecutive years played streak.

Natrona and Central played each other twice in a season four times: in 1935 (the second game was part of the first triangular playoff in state history), 1936 (to decide a playoff qualification after tying in their regular-season game), 1990 (in the playoff semifinals) and 2005 (again in the playoff semifinals).

Their meeting this season will be the 102nd in the series. NC leads the all-time series 52-46-3, with Central having a 28-22-1 series lead in Cheyenne while NC leads in Casper 29-18-2 (NC won the only neutral-site matchup).

Even so, this series is not the most-played series in state history. That honor goes to the Central-Laramie series, which has been played 130 times. However, the Indians and Plainsmen didn’t play each other in 1999, breaking a series that dated back to 1919.

The 20 longest active series in Wyoming high school football that are scheduled to continue this year, and the year the streak began, are:

1. Cheyenne Central-Natrona, 1920

2. Lander-Riverton, 1922

3. Cody-Powell, 1941 (they’ve been on each other’s schedules since 1921 but the 1940 game was not played; Powell won it in a forfeit)

4. Powell-Worland, 1945

5. Big Piney-Pinedale, 1952

6. Lyman-Mountain View, 1955

7t. Big Piney-Lyman, 1956

7t. Big Piney-Mountain View, 1956

9. Jackson-Star Valley, 1959

10t. Cheyenne Central-Cheyenne East, 1960

10t. Cheyenne East-Laramie, 1960

12t. Gillette-Kelly Walsh, 1965

12t. Kelly Walsh-Natrona, 1965

14. Douglas-Torrington, 1967

15. Shoshoni-Wind River, 1969

16. Gillette-Sheridan, 1970

17t. Gillette-Natrona, 1971

17t. Natrona-Sheridan, 1971

19. Glenrock-Newcastle, 1974

20. Pine Bluffs-Southeast, 1978

Several other series have been active for at least 20 years and are scheduled to continue this year. Those series, with starting year, include:

Lusk-Southeast, 1979; Kemmerer-Lyman, 1980; Evanston-Rock Springs, 1983; Jackson-Lander, 1983; Kemmerer-Mountain View, 1983; Lusk-Pine Bluffs, 1983; Powell-Star Valley, 1983; Star Valley-Worland, 1983; Douglas-Rawlins, 1985; Natrona-Rock Springs, 1985; Greybull-Riverside, 1987 (the Basin-Greybull series goes back to 1983); Big Piney-Kemmerer, 1989; Cheyenne East-Rock Springs, 1990; Laramie-Rock Springs, 1990; Buffalo-Powell, 1991; Cheyenne East-Evanston, 1991; Lingle-Lusk, 1991; Lingle-Pine Bluffs, 1991; Burlington-Riverside, 1993.

Streaks that have been going at least 10 years and are scheduled to continue this year include: Burns-Wright, 1995; Burlington-Shoshoni, 1999; Cheyenne Central-Laramie, 2000; Cheyenne Central-Rock Springs, 2000; Buffalo-Rawlins, 2001; Buffalo-Worland, 2001; Cokeville-Shoshoni, 2001; Jackson-Teton, Idaho, 2001; Kemmerer-Pinedale, 2001; Lyman-Pinedale, 2001; Mountain View-Pinedale, 2001; Jackson-Powell, 2002; Kelly Walsh-Sheridan, 2002; Cheyenne Central-Evanston, 2003; Evanston-Laramie, 2003; Greybull-Lovell, 2003; Lyman-Greybull, 2003; Newcastle-Custer, S.D., 2003; Rawlins-Torrington, 2003; Buffalo-Douglas, 2004; Buffalo-Lander, 2004; Buffalo-Torrington, 2004; Cheyenne East-Gillette, 2004; Cheyenne East-Kelly Walsh, 2004; Riverside-Rocky Mountain, 2004; Rocky Mountain-Wind River, 2004.

In addition to the Central-Laramie streak, which was broken in 1999, one other long streak was recently broken: Torrington-Wheatland. The series ended in 2012, as the two schools staged a Zero Week scrimmage instead of a game in 2013, breaking a streak that began in 1923. They had a Zero Week scrimmage again in 2014 and are scheduled for another scrimmage this week.

+++

On to this week’s picks. As usual, the programs in bold are the ones I’ve picked to win this week.

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne South at Evanston
Gillette at Kelly Walsh
Natrona at Cheyenne Central
Rock Springs at Cheyenne East
Sheridan at Laramie
Interstate
Lyman at Altamont, Utah
Custer, S.D., at Newcastle
Miles City, Mont., at Powell
Teton, Idaho, at Jackson
Saturday
Interstate
Southeast at Bridgeport, Neb.

The rest of the Zero Week schedule as I have it:

Scrimmages and jamborees
Friday
Buffalo at Lovell
Cokeville at Bear Lake, Idaho
Farson, NSI at Casper (at Kelly Walsh)
Lander, Mountain View at Green River
Pine Bluffs at Saratoga
Pinedale at Big Piney
Riverside at Tongue River
Shoshoni, Thermopolis at Greybull
Torrington at Wheatland
Worland at Riverton
Wyoming Indian at Kemmerer
Saturday
Big Horn, Moorcroft, Wright at Upton-Sundance (at Upton)
Burns, Lingle, Wind River at Lusk
Dubois, Meeteetse, Midwest, Snake River at Riverton
Guernsey-Sunrise, Ten Sleep at Kaycee
Rawlins at Glenrock
Off: Burlington, Cody, Douglas, Hanna, Hulett, Rock River, Rocky Mountain, St. Stephens, Star Valley.

For a full schedule including kickoff times, click here.

+++

As usual, Zero Week picks for all classifications except 4A come with a disclaimer about what’s a “game” and counted in the standings and what’s not. Remember, I count different than the WHSAA does. For the record, here are the criteria I use to judge whether or not to call an event a “game,” and therefore list it in the standings (and, eventually, as part of the team record on this site):

1. Was the game played with four 12-minute quarters with normal timing rules?

2. Were officials used? And were normal rules of play instituted for the game?

3. Was score kept?

In short, if you don’t want it to count, don’t keep score….

This season, Class 4A has the only contests that will be Wyoming-vs.-Wyoming “games.” Every other contest involving Wyoming teams alone is set up as a controlled scrimmage or jamboree of some kind.

+++

This also marks the first week that guest pickers Tad and Homer will make their picks. Here’s what the brothers have to say:

The picks

Tad: Natrona over Cheyenne Central; Powell over Miles City, Mont.

Homer: Cheyenne Central over Natrona; Miles City, Mont., over Powell.

Both: Evanston over Cheyenne South; Cheyenne East over Rock Springs; Laramie over Sheridan; Lyman over Altamont, Utah; Custer, S.D., over Newcastle; Jackson over Teton, Idaho; Bridgeport, Neb., over Southeast.

The records

Cheyenne South at Evanston (Evanston 4-0 overall, Evanston 2-0 at this location)

Gillette at Kelly Walsh (Gillette 33-20 overall, Gillette 15-12 at this location)

Natrona at Cheyenne Central (Natrona 52-46-3 overall, Central 28-22-1 at this location)

Rock Springs at Cheyenne East (East 23-18 overall, East 16-7 at this location)

Sheridan at Laramie (Laramie 43-34 overall, Laramie 25-14 at this location)

Altamont, Utah, at Lyman (Lyman 4-2 overall, Lyman 2-1 at this location)

Custer, S.D., at Newcastle (Custer 28-17-3 overall, Custer 12-9-2 at this location)

Miles City, Mont., at Powell (tied 4-4, Miles City 3-1 at this location)

Teton, Idaho, at Jackson (Jackson 17-16-1, Jackson 10-7-1 at this location)

Southeast at Bridgeport, Neb. (Bridgeport 9-5, Bridgeport 3-2 at this location)

Weekly reminder: Tad picks the series leader; Homer picks the location leader; when a series is tied, both Tad and Homer pick the home team.

Of course, I welcome your thoughts, too. So what do you think about the opening week of the season? Go ahead and leave a comment and we can chat about what’s going on in Wyoming during Zero Week.

Post updated 10:48 p.m. Aug. 27 to fix location of Lyman game.

–patrick

Meet Tad and Homer: Wyoming-football.com guest pickers for 2015

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Homer, left, and Tad discuss Wyoming high school football over lunch.

Homer, left, and Tad discuss Wyoming high school football over lunch. I think.

Meet Tad and Homer.

They are brothers. They love football, and they love history. They were brought up together, and they see football similarly.

While they agree on most everything, they occasionally disagree. This shows every week during the football season, when Tad and Homer go through Wyoming’s high school football schedule and try to predict the winners.

Tad thinks linearly. Figuring that the best predictor of the future is the past, Tad likes to look at series records and see which team has the better record against the other. And then he picks the program that leads the series.

Homer goes a step beyond his brother. Homer figures that home-field advantage plays into a game, too, so when he looks at series records, he also takes location into play. He bases his pick for that game on the series record in that location instead of the overall series record.

Tad and Homer’s problem? They don’t get out much.

They can’t tell you who is quarterbacking Cheyenne Central or coaching Lander. They like looking at the past and predicting the future, but they don’t have much use for the present.

In preparation for the 2015 season, I sought out Tad and Homer, who volunteered to make some weekly picks for the blog. Seeing as their picks are based solely on series records and nothing that actually happens during the season (remember how I said they don’t get out much?), they made their picks for every game way back in, like, February. In cases where series are tied, or where there has not been a game played in the series or a game in the series played at a certain location, Tad and Homer both opted to give the advantage, and their picks, to the home teams.

As I post my weekly picks throughout the season, I will also post Tad’s picks and Homer’s picks. In doing so, I hope to put the brothers’ differences to rest.

A big philosophical reason why I started wyoming-football.com in 2004 was to use the past to help explain the present and predict the future. I hoped that by finding patterns in past games, we could understand why the game is organized and played the way it is and why games come out the way they do. In short, this site and its 23,000-plus results are a search for understanding.

In the meantime, the 2015 season will act as a test of three competing theories. We shall see what works best: Tad’s approach of picking the team with the best history in the series, Homer’s approach of picking the team with the best history in the series at that location, or my approach actually trying to find value in the present and picking the team with the better chance of winning.

–patrick

Class 4A preview: Are the Big Four on the brink?

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For five seasons, Class 4A has been controlled by the big four. Cheyenne East, Natrona, Sheridan and Gillette have advanced to 4A’s semifinal round five years in a row, with nary a challenge from the classification’s other six schools.

The buildup to 2015 has shown the usual suspects will likely meet each other for a sixth consecutive year in the semifinals, and almost certainly one of those four schools will win the title.

Just don’t tell that to the other six. Severe graduation losses in the big four, coupled with continued growth among 4A’s lower tier, shows 2015 might be the year the gap finally closes between 4A’s elite programs and its also-rans.

Four questions to answer

Is it still the big four in charge? For now, yes. Cheyenne East, Natrona, Sheridan and Gillette have had the final four playoff spots in Class 4A on lockdown since 2010, an unprecedented streak of success for a foursome of teams. However, enough uncertainty surrounds the top of the classification to make a surprise semifinalist — like maybe Cheyenne South, Cheyenne Central or Kelly Walsh — a possibility.

So of those big four, who’s the favorite? Right now on paper, it’s Sheridan. Of the top four 4A teams, the Broncs lost the fewest players. Experience is always key in Class 4A, and Sheridan has more of it than any other team.

Which of the other six schools have the best chance to break up the top four’s superiority? For the first time, Cheyenne South. The Bison return an experienced quarterback in Austin Barker, a solid running back in Marquez Jefferson and a defense that returns four of its top five tacklers. With that much talent back, South will likely earn its first playoff berth in school history.

Isn’t Natrona still in the mix? Of course. But the defending state champs lost more to graduation than any other team in the state. The Mustangs return just two of their top 22 tacklers from last year and just one of their 12 all-state selections. Those losses leave NC in a precarious situation — trying to reload with players who have basically no varsity experience.

Four players to watch

Quinn Happold, Cheyenne East. The only 4A player who’s a returning all-state selection at two positions (offensive and defensive line), Happold will be an important piece of the T-Birds’ restructuring process this season. It all starts up front.

Austin Barker, Cheyenne South. How Barker — who threw for a 4A-best 197 yards per game — missed out on all-state honors last year is beyond me. But he’s back for his senior season, and he could be the one who leads South to its first playoff berth in program history.

Zach Taylor, Gillette. A two-time all-state selection and Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team selection at linebacker last year, Taylor is also Gillette’s leading returning rusher. Already a legit defensive star, Taylor may be called on to do more on the offensive side this year, too.

Dontae Crow, Sheridan. Although Crow didn’t show up on the all-state list last year, every coach in the state knows who he is. After all, he posted more than 20 yards per catch as Sheridan’s top receiver last year and led Sheridan with six pass breakups. He’s an important, explosive player in what may be Sheridan’s breakthrough year.

Four key games

Cheyenne East at Natrona, Sept. 4. Of 4A’s top four, the Thunderbirds and the Mustangs have the most questions surrounding them entering the fall. The 4A hierarchy could be established quickly with this Week 1 contest.

Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne South, Sept. 4. Both the Indians and the Bison could be poised for breakout seasons in 2015. This contest will help establish which team is a legit threat to 4A’s top four and which one is simply along for the ride.

Sheridan at Gillette, Oct. 2. The Energy Bowl always ranks high as a key 4A game, but in a year where the Broncs and Camels return more players than most of their competitors, this game could be for the top seed in the playoffs.

Natrona at Sheridan, Oct. 16. Natrona has won six straight against Sheridan. For the Broncs to rise to the level of 4A favorite, they’ll have to be able to overcome the Mustangs in Week 7. At least they get this one at home….

Predicted order of finish

Sheridan, Gillette, Natrona, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Cheyenne Central, Kelly Walsh, Evanston, Laramie, Rock Springs.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Sheridan 30, Gillette 20. On paper, the Broncs have more returning firepower than any other team in Class 4A. If they can put it together like they’re capable, they’ll be the team to beat.

Do you agree? Is Sheridan actually the team to beat? Who has the best chance of winning it all? Which team has the best chance of knocking off one of the “big four” in the playoffs? Post your thoughts and let’s talk 4A.

–patrick