I did it. I worked out all the playoff possibilities for the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth seeds for the Class 4A playoffs.*
The schedule for Week 8 is Cheyenne Central at Kelly Walsh, Evanston at Rock Springs, Green River at Gillette, Laramie at Cheyenne East, and Natrona at Sheridan. The first four games are the most critical to the 5-8 seeds. Anyway, here is the breakdown for who would take the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth seeds, and who would be eliminated, if certain teams win. There are 17 different possibilities for how the seeds could break down. They are as follows:
If East Beats Laramie | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Elim |
RS win, GR win, KW loss | CC | CE | KW | GR | Lar, RS |
RS win, GR loss, KW loss | CC | RS | CE | KW | Lar, GR |
RS loss, GR win, KW loss | CC | CE | KW | GR | Lar, RS |
RS loss, GR loss, KW loss | CC | CE | KW | GR | Lar, RS |
RS win, GR win, KW win* | KW | CC | RS | CE | Lar, GR |
RS win, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | RS | CE | Lar, GR |
RS loss, GR win, KW win | KW | CC | CE | GR | Lar, RS |
RS loss, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | CE | GR | Lar, RS |
*-seeding dependent on Sheridan loss to Natrona | |||||
If Laramie Beats East | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Elim |
RS win, GR win, KW loss | CC | KW | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
RS win, GR loss, KW loss | CC | KW | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
RS loss, GR win, KW loss | CC | KW | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
RS loss, GR loss, KW loss | CC | KW | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
RS win, GR win, KW win | KW | CC | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
RS win, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
RS loss, GR win, KW win | KW | CC | GR | RS | Lar, CE |
RS loss, GR loss, KW win | KW | CC | RS | Lar | CE, GR |
In short:
Kelly Walsh is in. The winner of Kelly Walsh-Central is the fifth seed. If Central loses, the Indians are the sixth seed.
If Laramie loses, they’re out. If East loses, they’re out. If Laramie wins and Green River wins, both East and Laramie are out.
The only place where the Sheridan-Natrona outcome has an effect on these seeds is if KW, Rock Springs, Green River and East all win. If Sheridan happens to beat Natrona on top of all that, then it depends on more than I can explain here.
*It should be known that this interpretation of the seeding possibilities contains breaking of four-way ties, something that is not addressed in the WHSAA handbook. In those cases, I took the team with the top record against the other three teams; when doing that resulted in another tie, I looked at the head-to-head winner of those two teams and made that team the winner of the four-way tiebreaker. Then, I went back to the three-way tiebreaker and started at the start of the tiebreaking procedures for the remaining three teams. I hope this interpretation of the tiebreakers matches with what the WHSAA might use if presented with that situation, but again, it’s important to note that this procedure is not specifically addressed in the handbook.
You’re welcome….
–patrick