Monthly Archives: August 2015

For five seasons, Class 4A has been controlled by the big four. Cheyenne East, Natrona, Sheridan and Gillette have advanced to 4A’s semifinal round five years in a row, with nary a challenge from the classification’s other six schools.

The buildup to 2015 has shown the usual suspects will likely meet each other for a sixth consecutive year in the semifinals, and almost certainly one of those four schools will win the title.

Just don’t tell that to the other six. Severe graduation losses in the big four, coupled with continued growth among 4A’s lower tier, shows 2015 might be the year the gap finally closes between 4A’s elite programs and its also-rans.

Four questions to answer

Is it still the big four in charge? For now, yes. Cheyenne East, Natrona, Sheridan and Gillette have had the final four playoff spots in Class 4A on lockdown since 2010, an unprecedented streak of success for a foursome of teams. However, enough uncertainty surrounds the top of the classification to make a surprise semifinalist — like maybe Cheyenne South, Cheyenne Central or Kelly Walsh — a possibility.

So of those big four, who’s the favorite? Right now on paper, it’s Sheridan. Of the top four 4A teams, the Broncs lost the fewest players. Experience is always key in Class 4A, and Sheridan has more of it than any other team.

Which of the other six schools have the best chance to break up the top four’s superiority? For the first time, Cheyenne South. The Bison return an experienced quarterback in Austin Barker, a solid running back in Marquez Jefferson and a defense that returns four of its top five tacklers. With that much talent back, South will likely earn its first playoff berth in school history.

Isn’t Natrona still in the mix? Of course. But the defending state champs lost more to graduation than any other team in the state. The Mustangs return just two of their top 22 tacklers from last year and just one of their 12 all-state selections. Those losses leave NC in a precarious situation — trying to reload with players who have basically no varsity experience.

Four players to watch

Quinn Happold, Cheyenne East. The only 4A player who’s a returning all-state selection at two positions (offensive and defensive line), Happold will be an important piece of the T-Birds’ restructuring process this season. It all starts up front.

Austin Barker, Cheyenne South. How Barker — who threw for a 4A-best 197 yards per game — missed out on all-state honors last year is beyond me. But he’s back for his senior season, and he could be the one who leads South to its first playoff berth in program history.

Zach Taylor, Gillette. A two-time all-state selection and Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team selection at linebacker last year, Taylor is also Gillette’s leading returning rusher. Already a legit defensive star, Taylor may be called on to do more on the offensive side this year, too.

Dontae Crow, Sheridan. Although Crow didn’t show up on the all-state list last year, every coach in the state knows who he is. After all, he posted more than 20 yards per catch as Sheridan’s top receiver last year and led Sheridan with six pass breakups. He’s an important, explosive player in what may be Sheridan’s breakthrough year.

Four key games

Cheyenne East at Natrona, Sept. 4. Of 4A’s top four, the Thunderbirds and the Mustangs have the most questions surrounding them entering the fall. The 4A hierarchy could be established quickly with this Week 1 contest.

Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne South, Sept. 4. Both the Indians and the Bison could be poised for breakout seasons in 2015. This contest will help establish which team is a legit threat to 4A’s top four and which one is simply along for the ride.

Sheridan at Gillette, Oct. 2. The Energy Bowl always ranks high as a key 4A game, but in a year where the Broncs and Camels return more players than most of their competitors, this game could be for the top seed in the playoffs.

Natrona at Sheridan, Oct. 16. Natrona has won six straight against Sheridan. For the Broncs to rise to the level of 4A favorite, they’ll have to be able to overcome the Mustangs in Week 7. At least they get this one at home….

Predicted order of finish

Sheridan, Gillette, Natrona, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Cheyenne Central, Kelly Walsh, Evanston, Laramie, Rock Springs.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Sheridan 30, Gillette 20. On paper, the Broncs have more returning firepower than any other team in Class 4A. If they can put it together like they’re capable, they’ll be the team to beat.

Do you agree? Is Sheridan actually the team to beat? Who has the best chance of winning it all? Which team has the best chance of knocking off one of the “big four” in the playoffs? Post your thoughts and let’s talk 4A.

–patrick

When at least half the teams in a classification start the season with a realistic chance to win a state championship, you know you’re in for a fun year.

This is what we have in Class 3A this year.

With big losses suffered by last year’s title-game participants, the 2015 season is a big question mark. The classification has no clear favorite and no clear dividing lines between the challengers and the pretenders. That should make for a fun, unpredictable, and stressful year in 3A.

Four questions to answer

Are we seeing a changing of the guard in 3A? Possibly. Up until last year, 3A had been ruled for the past half-dozen years by Powell and Douglas, who each won three titles in a row. Then Cody won the title last year and demolished the hierarchy we all knew. And with the Broncs losing a ton of talented seniors, that means 3A is as wide open as it’s been in probably 20 years.

So who’s going to seize the open spot atop the class? Maybe Cody. Maybe Douglas. Maybe Jackson. Maybe Torrington. Maybe…. No one has a definitive answer. The bulk of last year’s best teams lost their best players; the bulk of last year’s challengers return their best players. That makes things messy, and competitive, and fun, in the top half of the class.

What position will be key to a deep playoff run? 2015 will be the year of the running back in 3A. Jackson’s Theo Dawson and Torrington’s Skyler Miller were both Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first-team selections and were their respective conference’s offensive players of the year last year, and they’re both back for their senior campaigns in ’15. For a couple programs starved for success (Jackson has just one title in the past 28 years; Torrington hasn’t won it all since 1990), running back will be the most important position on the field.

What’s up in Worland? Good question. A program and community known for stability, the Warriors will have their sixth head coach in five years when former Douglas assistant Todd Weber takes over this fall. Stability at the top will be key for re-establishing a program that has struggled to find its identity since longtime coach Wade Sanford left after the 2011 season.

Four players to watch

Theo Dawson, Jackson. He was the offensive player of the year in the West Conference last year. He was on the Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team. He ran for 1,439 yards last season. He’s also the state’s most high-profile recruiting target. Everyone’s keeping their eyes on Mr. Dawson, and for good reason.

Skyler Miller, Torrington. He was the offensive player of the year in the East Conference last year. He was on the Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team. He ran for 1,305 yards last season. And don’t forget, Miller’s Trailblazers beat Dawson’s Broncs in the playoffs last year.

Jace Allard, Rawlins. Allard finished second in the state, regardless of classification, with his 2,238 passing yards last season. He’s the leading returning passer in the state and he fronts a rejuvenated Outlaw offense that can cause teams fits. As long as Rawlins’ running game remains strong, Allard could rack up even gaudier stats this fall, potentially leading Rawlins to its first playoff victory since 2000.

Cam Myers, Cody. Cody had nine all-state players last year and Myers is the only one who’s back this fall. He’s Cody’s leading returning rusher, receiver and tackler. With last year’s seniors gone, Myers’ responsibilities will be magnified that much more this fall.

Four key games

Riverton at Torrington, Sept. 25. The Wolverines have been quiet so far this offseason, but they’ll definitely challenge the Trailblazers in both teams’ East Conference opener. If Riverton can pull off the road victory, watch out.

Torrington at Douglas, Oct. 2. While Torrington returns a boatload of players, Douglas returns a boatload of tradition. And if the Trailblazers want to be East Conference champs, they’ll have to knock off the Bearcats in Douglas — always a tough task.

Jackson at Cody, Oct. 9. These two teams played a hard-fought game last year, one of Cody’s toughest tests on the way to a title. Both teams will need this victory; that urgency could make this one a classic.

Powell at Cody, Oct. 23. The regular-season finale between these longtime rivals could be the biggest game of the year by the time Week 8 rolls around. Or it could just be another game. Either way, Panthers-Broncs is always a can’t-miss affair.

Predicted order of finish

East: Torrington, Douglas, Rawlins, Riverton, Buffalo, Lander. West: Jackson, Cody, Star Valley, Powell, Green River, Worland.

Preseason top five: Jackson, Torrington, Cody, Douglas, Rawlins.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Jackson 24, Torrington 20. However, picking a champion for this classification this early is an exercise in futility. With no clear favorites, 3A will be a blast to follow all season long.

I can realistically see seven or eight different programs having a real shot at a state title. Goodness. Who do YOU think is the favorite for the 3A title? Which team has some surprises ready to show the rest of the state? Post a comment and we can try to figure this classification out together — because I know, this year, I don’t think anyone has any real idea of what might happen.

Next week: Class 4A.

–patrick

Class 2A has shown more parity over the past decade than any other classification.

With five different state champions in the past five years — and eight different champions in the past nine years — 2A has been full of unpredictability. In fact, accounting for reclassification, nine of the 14 schools in 2A have won state titles in the past nine years.

A 10th may join the ranks this fall.

In short, expect another “typical” year in 2A.

Four questions to answer

Will we see Big Horn and Mountain View in the title game for the third consecutive year? Maybe, but neither one is the favorite for the 2015 title. That honor goes to Wheatland, which retains all four of its all-state selections. The Bulldogs nearly knocked off Big Horn in the semifinals last year and appear poised for a run at the school’s second football title and its first since 1984.

Who else has a good shot at the title? Well, Mountain View and Big Horn. The Buffalos return three all-staters and the Rams a pair; Thermopolis is the only other team in the classification to bring back more than one all-state selection from last year.

Anyone else in the state title mix? Not really. Class 2A has a bunch of teams with potential — Lovell, Greybull, Big Piney, Lyman, Glenrock, Newcastle and Thermopolis should all be competitive. But none stands out as a potential championship threat. Yet.

Can Kemmerer break its losing streak? If so, look for it to happen sooner, not later. The Rangers, who enter the season on a state-worst 20-game losing streak, are the only 2A team with a new coach. Kemmerer native Jason Ferrarini has the unenviable task of trying to end the streak in a season with an unforgiving schedule that gets tougher as the season progresses.

Four players to watch

Justis Borton, Wheatland. Borton was the 2A East lineman of the year last year as a junior and led the Bulldogs with 11.5 tackles for loss. He fronts a cadre of Bulldog seniors ready to make a run at a state championship.

Josh Calvert, Wheatland. If Borton is the best lineman in 2A this year, his teammate Calvert is right on his heels. Calvert led the Bulldogs’ defense in defensive points last season, notching team highs in solo tackles, assisted tackles and blocked kicks. Strength up front makes Wheatland a tough team to stop.

Tyler Cornwell, Thermopolis. Cornwell’s numbers dipped a bit in his junior campaign, going from 1,012 rushing yards in 2013 to 924 in 2014, but he’s 2A’s leading returning rusher and the only player in the classification who’s already got two all-state selections to his name. (Updated 2:20 p.m. Aug. 6 to fix Tyler’s first name.)

Beau Green, Lovell. Green enters his third season under center for the Bulldogs as one of the classification’s most established quarterbacks. He threw for 1,056 yards and 13 touchdowns last year and piled up 1,271 and 16 TDs as a sophomore; if his young receivers come along quickly, this year could be even bigger.

Four key games

Mountain View at Greybull, Sept. 11. Mountain View’s biggest conference game may be its first against Greybull — a challenge made even tougher by the 329-mile one-way trip. The defending champs will have to prove their mettle early to establish themselves as the team to beat out west.

Big Horn at Thermopolis, Oct. 2. While Wheatland is the clear favorite in the East, both the Rams and Bobcats will line up with competitive squads this fall, too. This midseason showdown may make the difference between who hosts a playoff game and who goes on the road.

Lyman at Mountain View, Oct. 23. The Bridger Valley Bowl has had huge implications the past few years, and this year figures to be no different. This Week 8 showdown will likely have playoff seeding and qualification question marks all over it.

Big Horn at Wheatland, Oct. 23. The defending conference champion Rams have to make the trip south to play the Bulldogs in the regular-season finale. If both teams live up to preseason expectations, this could be for the East title.

Predicted order of finish

East: Wheatland, Big Horn, Thermopolis, Glenrock, Newcastle, Burns, Wright. West: Mountain View, Greybull, Lovell, Big Piney, Lyman, Pinedale, Kemmerer.

Preseason top five: Wheatland, Big Horn, Mountain View, Thermopolis, Greybull.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Wheatland 28, Big Horn 14. The Bulldogs have enough talent to earn the title of preseason favorite. In a classification that, historically, is as parity-filled and competitive as 2A, though, Wheatland can’t take anything for granted.

So what do you think? Is the 2A title Wheatland’s to lose? What team do you see as the one poised to break through this season? Leave a comment and we can chat about what looks like a predictable season — which, as we know, in 2A, means little….

Next week: Class 3A.

–patrick