You know how I do this by now. Let’s get right into it:
1. Which road team do you think is most likely to win this weekend? (My answer: Lyman. The Eagles have been one of the most consistent teams in 2A this year, with their only loss coming against top-ranked Lovell in Lovell. The only question that remains is how Lyman will play with the added pressure of a state championship game berth on the line. The last three times Lyman has made it to the semifinals (2000, 2004, 2006), the Eagles have lost.)
2. Which bracket is most likely to see BOTH road teams win? (My answer: The Class 4A bracket. And it’s not because the top seeds, Natrona and Sheridan, are primed for upsets. Neither one of those squads has shown that. Instead, I base this answer on the fact that, in the 4A playoffs, you can’t take anything for granted. The two road teams in this semifinal round, Gillette and Cheyenne East, have proven capable of beating anyone, anywhere. If the ball bounces a bit weird, if turnovers go the wrong way, if the focus is on War Memorial and not on the semifinals… we could see a couple upsets. By the way, did you notice that both 4A games this week are rematches from Week 5? Weird.)
3. Which top seed is likely to have the toughest time winning this weekend? (My answer: In addition to Glenrock, which I have already mentioned, I think Douglas will get a tremendous challenge from Buffalo. Douglas won the regular-season meeting by the skin of its teeth — 27-21 — and should get the same sort of challenge from the Bison this time around, too. Also, Buffalo has already proven it can go on the road in the playoffs and win.)
4. Which regular-season rematch is the most intriguing game of the postseason? (My answer: Midwest-Dubois. The regular-season meeting wasn’t all that close — Dubois won 49-20 — but that was also in Week 1. Since that time, Midwest has improved tremendously, particularly on offense; the Oilers have scored at least 52 points in every game since, and the 52-spot was put up in a loss to top-ranked Snake River. Of course, since a Week 2 loss to Snake River, Dubois has scored at least 50 points in every game….)
5. If you could attend any of these 10 games, which one would you go to? (My answer: Lusk-Cokeville. The rematch of last year’s 1A 11-man title game should be a good one. Lusk’s defense has allowed just 47 points all season, while Cokeville has given up just 32. With points likely at a premium, the game will come down to the fundamentals — protecting the ball, converting third downs, kicking. Whichever team can do the fundamentals the best will win. And that can be really fun to watch, because the margin between victory and defeat is so small.)
Onto the picks, with projected winners in bold:
Friday
Class 4A
(4) Cheyenne East at (1) Natrona: The Mustangs are undefeated and may be playing their best football of the season. Dangerous combo. 6 p.m. (NC 37-15)
(3) Gillette at (2) Sheridan: I’m still impressed with how easily Sheridan dispatched Gillette in the Energy Bowl. I anticipate a closer game the second time around, but the game is still Sheridan’s to lose. 6 p.m. (She 39-26-1)
Class 3A
(3E) Buffalo at (1E) Douglas: This might be the game of the week. Douglas won the regular-season game 27-21; since then, both teams have shown their ability to win some big ones. This one might be even closer than the regular-season game. 7 p.m. (Buf 34-26)
(3W) Powell at (1W) Green River: Speaking of “should be closer than the regular-season game,” this one between the Panthers and Wolves meets that criteria, too. The Wolves blasted the Panthers two weeks ago and are the favorites to win here, too, but I would anticipate a better challenge from Powell the second time around. 7 p.m. (tied 5-5)
Class 2A
(2W) Lyman at (1E) Glenrock: Lyman is the only road team I am picking this week. The Eagles have been my No. 2 team in 2A most of the season (behind Lovell), and I think their depth will help see them through a long road trip. 7 p.m. (Glk 2-1)
(2E) Newcastle at (1W) Lovell: The Dogies showed last week that they’re no slouch. And they’ll push Lovell. But week in and week out, Lovell has taken the best shots from numerous teams and has always been up to the challenge. 7 p.m. (Lov 10-4)
Class 1A 11-man
(2E) Lusk at (1W) Cokeville: Like I mentioned above, points may be at a premium in this one. Having the home field will definitely help the Panthers in this one. 1 p.m. (Cok 2-0)
(2W) Riverside at (1E) Southeast: We all knew the Cyclones were good. After the way they demolished Shoshoni in the quarterfinals, I now say the Cyclones are officially scary. 6 p.m. (SE 2-0)
Class 1A six-man
(2N) Kaycee at (1S) Snake River: One number to remember for this game: 60. That’s how many points Snake River beat Kaycee by in the regular season (66-6). Noon. (SR 3-1)
(2S) Midwest at (1N) Dubois: As I mentioned above, Midwest will push Dubois harder than it did in Week 1, and points may be a little bit easier to come by than they were back in early September. A fourth-quarter defensive stand may decide this one. 2 p.m. (tied 5-5)
Semifinal picks, in the books. What are your picks for the second-to-last week of the season? Feel free to comment below with your thoughts about who might be going to Laramie and who might be staying home.
–patrick