Quarterfinal picks: A look at why regular-season results don’t mean all that much in Wyoming football playoff rematches

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In a state as sparsely populated as Wyoming, this situation is bound to happen: You beat a team once, only to play that same team again in the playoffs.

For Equality State football programs, the playoff rematch is fairly common: In the 982 playoff games the state has had since 1931, Wyoming high school football teams have played rematches of regular-season games 375 times. So 38.2 percent of all playoff games have been rematches of regular-season games.

Of course, the advantage in those rematch games goes to the team that won in the regular season. But quite often, that regular-season success actually hasn’t paid off in the rematch that really counts. In fact, in those 375 playoff rematches, the team that won in the regular season lost 78 times — or in more than 20 percent of the games.

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Last year’s playoffs had four games where the regular-season loser was the postseason winner. Two of those four were in the Class 4A semifinals: East avenged its loss to Sheridan, as did Natrona against Gillette. Natrona also beat Kelly Walsh in the 4A quarterfinals after losing in the regular season. The last one is in on a technicality but counts all the same, as Midwest beat Farson in the 1A six-man quarterfinals after having to forfeit its regular-season game to the Pronghorns.

Recently, Wyoming’s playoffs have had a few teams that have avenged those regular-season losses in the playoffs. The 2012 and 2011 playoffs had three reversals of fortune; 2010 had four; 2009 had five; 2008 had only one. And there’s no real pattern. The recent high came in 2005, when six playoff game rematches ended with the regular-season loser winning, but that scenario didn’t happen at all one year prior in the 2004 playoffs.

In the bulk of those “reversal” games, the regular-season game was close. Even so, almost no margin of victory in the regular season translates into a favorites’ position in the postseason. In 37 of the 78 games won by the regular-season loser, the regular-season game was decided by eight points or less. Do the math, and you can see that 41 times, a team lost its playoff rematch after winning in the regular season by eight or more points.

Even teams that win by relatively large margins in the regular season aren’t safe in the playoffs. The biggest turnarounds, ranked by the size of the margin of victory in the regular season, are:

34 points (2006): Mountain View beat Glenrock 41-7 in the regular season; Glenrock won the rematch 7-0 in the 3A quarterfinals.

35 points (2010): Big Horn beat Thermopolis 42-7 in the regular season, but Thermopolis won the rematch 13-9 in the 2A championship game.

42 points (2010): Evanston beat Cheyenne East 42-0 in the regular season; East won the rematch 30-20 in the 4A quarterfinals just two weeks later.

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Meanwhile, close games in the regular season are no guarantees of close games in the playoffs. Last year’s NC-KW rematch was one of the extreme examples of that. The biggest turnarounds, ranked by the size of the margin of victory in the postseason:

33 points (2013): Kelly Walsh beat Natrona in the Oil Bowl last year 21-20 but lost in the rematch 33-0 in the 4A quarterfinals.

34 points (2012): Lusk beat Southeast 7-6 in the regular season; Southeast won the rematch 40-6 in the 1A 11-man championship in Laramie.

35 points (2002): Mountain View beat Glenrock 28-19 in the regular season but lost the rematch 35-0 in the 3A title game.

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Finally, sometimes, the regular-season game is a perfect indicator of what will happen in the postseason. The “Why did we do this, again?” award for exact same scores in both the regular-season game and the rematch (and, in all three cases, both games were in the same place, too) goes to:

Southeast and Upton: In 2008, Southeast beat Upton 34-0 both in the regular season and in the 1A quarterfinals more than a month later; both games were in Yoder.

Riverton and Cody: In 2004, Riverton beat Cody 48-7 both in the regular season and in the 5A quarterfinals three weeks later; both games were in Riverton.

Pine Bluffs and Guernsey-Sunrise: In 1991, Pine Bluffs beat Guernsey-Sunrise 20-14 both in the regular season and in the 1A semifinals almost two months later; both games were in Guernsey.

In short: Regular-season success only gives you about an 80 percent chance of winning that rematch in the postseason. Beware overconfidence, and respect the history. This happens more than you might think.

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This year, half of the 20 quarterfinal playoff games are rematches — all four Class 4A games, two games in 3A (Powell-Riverton and Star Valley-Douglas), three games in 2A (all except Thermopolis-Mountain View), and one game in 1A six-man (Hanna-Snake River). If statistical tradition holds, two of the 10 teams that won in the regular season will lose in the rematch….

On to the picks, where statistical tradition is ignored, but I still choose a few road teams to win first-round games. Projected winners in bold, like I’ve done for years, but hey, this might be your first visit here and you’re learning how I do things. So there you go:

Friday
Class 4A
(8) Evanston at (1) Natrona: The Mustangs haven’t lost yet and beat Evanston 48-6 about a month ago. NC should keep rolling. First playoff meeting since the 1995 quarterfinals.
(5) Cheyenne Central at (4) Sheridan: Cheyenne Central’s last-minute victory against Evanston last week was the Indians’ second straight victory. But that momentum doesn’t mean much to the Broncs, who are 2-2 in their last four but still the favorites. First playoff meeting since the 2009 title game.
(7) Kelly Walsh at (2) Cheyenne East: KW is 1-4 in its past five games, and the one game the Trojans won, they won by one point. And even though KW played East tough in the regular season, the T-Birds should win at home. Throw in the twist that this is the first playoff game at the new Okie, and East will be sure to protect the home turf. First playoff meeting.
(6) Laramie at (3) Gillette: Laramie’s steady improvement hasn’t gone unnoticed. The Plainsmen could be pesky. Then again…. Nah. Gillette beat Laramie two weeks ago. The 4A hierarchy sustains itself. First playoff meeting since the 2000 4A title game.
Class 3A
(4E) Rawlins at (1W) Cody: Rawlins’ turnaround under first-year coach Corey Wheeler has been fun to watch. A team so mired in losing deserves to have some success. However, Cody has not-so-quietly emerged as the team to beat from the West Conference. First playoff meeting.
(3W) Powell at (2E) Riverton: This one is brutal. Riverton beat Powell 20-14 at Wolverine Stadium on Sept. 19. I like what the Wolverines have done and I like their chances. But it’s so hard to ignore what Powell has done the past three years. The Panthers know how to win in the playoffs. Ugh… OK. Wolverines. First playoff meeting since the 2010 quarterfinals. (BTW, Riverton was the last team to beat Powell in the playoffs in that 2010 meeting.)
(4W) Star Valley at (1E) Douglas: The Braves are the best 2-6 team in the state. Douglas is still a notch or two above that, though. The Bearcats’ run through the East Conference was really impressive, and I think that momentum continues deep into the playoffs. Rematch of a semifinal playoff game from last year.
(3E) Torrington at (2W) Jackson: These two schools have never faced each other in football prior to this game. They’re both greatly improved and have both the momentum and the ability to go deep in the playoffs. If it’s close, though, you take the team at home — not the team that’s traveling 400-some miles one way to play. First meeting.
Class 2A
(4E) Thermopolis at (1W) Mountain View: This one might be closer than it appears; Mountain View overcame its only loss with style, but Thermopolis has been quietly consistent. And we all remember what Thermop did as a 4-seed in last year’s playoffs. Right, Burns? Rematch of a semifinal game from a year ago.
(3W) Greybull at (2E) Newcastle: This might be the toughest playoff game to choose. Greybull has made great strides this season and were impressive in knocking off Lovell last week, and they’re a better team than the one that lost to Newcastle by 20 earlier this year. I still like the Dogies at home, though, in a close one. First playoff meeting since the 2010 quarterfinals.
(4W) Lovell at (1E) Big Horn: This rivalry has been fun to watch develop the past three years. This time, though, the unbeaten Rams have the decided advantage, in part due to the 25-0 victory Big Horn put on Lovell in Week 1. Third consecutive year they’ve met in the playoffs after semifinal showdowns in 2012 and 2013.
(3E) Wheatland at (2W) Lyman: Remember back in Week 1? When Wheatland went all the way across the state and beat Lyman 13-0 on the Eagles’ home field? So does everyone else who will step on that same field just shy of two months later. Just like the other 2-3 2A game, this one’s really tough to choose, but I’ll stick with the team that won this game the first time around. Rematch of a 2012 quarterfinal game.
Class 1A 11-man
(3E) Upton-Sundance at (2W) Rocky Mountain: Rocky Mountain’s most impressive victory of the season was probably the one the Grizzlies put up last week against Burlington. The Griz clearly aren’t the team that lost to Tongue River in Week 1. Then again, Upton-Sundance’s most impressive victory of the season was probably the one they put up last week against Southeast. I think the Patriots get the program’s first playoff victory. First playoff meeting.
(4E) Tongue River at (1W) Cokeville: Watching Tongue River’s continuous improvement has been fun to watch this year. Watching Cokeville’s domination of a classification for three decades has been fun, too. Just the second meeting between these programs; the first was in the 1956 six-man state title game.
(3W) Shoshoni at (2E) Lingle: Something lit a fire under Shoshoni after starting 0-3, and the Wranglers have won five in a row. Lingle, though, has lost only to Lusk and presents a strong challenge to the Wranglers’ momentum. This one will be fun to watch. First playoff meeting.
Class 1A six-man
(4E) Midwest at (1W) Dubois: Since losing to Farson in Week 3, Dubois has been on a tear. The West was full of parity this year, but the Rams are the top seed from that conference for a reason. Fourth consecutive playoff meeting after semifinal games the past three years.
(3W) Meeteetse at (2E) Kaycee: This one will be fun. I honestly don’t know who to pick — the Longhorns, the defending champs, or the Buckaroos, who are probably the odds-on favorites to be the 2015 champs? Again, this one will be fun. Rematch of a quarterfinal game from last year.
(4W) Farson at (1E) Guernsey-Sunrise: Farson deserved better than this for the fantastic season it’s had. Unfortunately for the Pronghorns, they draw the top-ranked Vikings in the first round. First playoff meeting since the 2009 quarterfinals.
(3E) Hanna at (2W) Snake River: Hanna’s kind of in the same boat as Farson: Great season. A couple tough losses. Better than you think. Capable of giving opponent a good game. Still the underdogs. In this case, though, Snake’s already beaten Hanna once this year, and it wasn’t neighborly (76-44 in Week 1). First playoff meeting since the 2010 title game.
Saturday
Class 1A 11-man
(4W) Riverside at (1E) Lusk: Riverside had to win a triangular playoff game against Wind River just to make it to the postseason. Lusk is undefeated, got to rest up with a Week 8 bye and is playing at home. Advantage Tigers. Rematch of a quarterfinal game from a year ago, a game Lusk won by 68.

Last week: 27-5 (84 percent). This season: 220-53 (81 percent).

For a full season schedule, including kickoff times for this week’s games, click here.

The first week of the playoffs is usually pretty predictable. What team do you think is best poised to pull an upset? Which road teams have the ability to keep their seasons rolling? Which favorites should be booking rooms in Laramie? Comment below and let’s chat about it.

–patrick

What if: Modern enrollments, 1976 alignment rules for Wyoming high school football

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The past couple weeks, we’ve looked at how the seasons of 1976 and 1985 would have shaped up if given modern conference and classification alignments. But what if, like many other aspects of Wyoming life, the WHSAA was resistant to changing a classification setup? What if, in 2014, we were still using the 1976 classification and conference alignments — with the largest 14 schools in Class AA, the next 15 in Class A and the rest in Class B?

Well, we’d likely have conferences and classifications that look like this:

Class AA East
1. Gillette, 2,439
4. Cheyenne East, 1,468
5. Kelly Walsh, 1,395
6. Cheyenne Central, 1,269
7. Cheyenne South, 1,223
8. Sheridan, 1,017
9. Laramie, 991

Class AA West
2. Natrona, 2,184
3. Rock Springs, 1,562
10. Evanston, 918
11. Green River, 817
12. Riverton, 788
13. Star Valley, 717
14. Jackson, 673

Class A East
16. Douglas, 516
17. Rawlins, 507
21. Torrington, 399
22. Buffalo, 328
24. Wheatland, 298
25. Newcastle, 237
27. Glenrock, 222

Class A West
15. Cody, 661
18. Lander, 493
19. Powell, 484
20. Worland, 426
23. Pinedale, 303
26. Mountain View, 222
28. Lovell, 215
29. Thermopolis, 210

Class B Northeast
35. Big Horn, 157
36. Wright, 156
37. Moorcroft, 153
41. Tongue River, 123
45. Sundance, 103 (contingent on co-op breakup)
50. Upton, 81 (contingent on co-op breakup)
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*57. NSI, 65
*58. Midwest, 63
*60. Hulett, 51
*62. Kaycee, 47

Class B Southeast
34. Burns, 166
42. Lusk, 116
44. Pine Bluffs, 109
46. Southeast, 101
51. Lingle, 80
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*56. Guernsey, 65
*67. Rock River, 33

Class B Northwest
33. Greybull, 175
38. Wyoming Indian, 139
39. Wind River, 128
40. Rocky Mountain, 124
43. Shoshoni, 115
48. Riverside, 97
49. Burlington, 82
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*53. St. Stephens, 70
*59. Dubois, 52
*66. Meeteetse, 40
*68. Ten Sleep, 33

Class B Southwest
30. Lyman, 204
31. Big Piney, 198
32. Kemmerer, 177
47. Saratoga, 100
52. Cokeville, 74
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*55. Hanna, 68
*61. Farson, 49
*63. Snake River, 46

This week, we could be prepping for that big Natrona-Jackson showdown. Or the Converse rivalry game between Douglas and Glenrock. Or the top-tier showdown between Cody and Mountain View. … However, the uneven split in Class AA might force us to split up the two Casper schools, or consider moving Laramie to the West, or consider a North-South arrangement instead of the East-West split used in 1976 (with a North of Gillette, Sheridan, Natrona, Kelly Walsh, Riverton, Star Valley and Jackson and a South of Cheyenne East, Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne South, Laramie, Rock Springs, Evanston and Green River).

Meanwhile, 13 of the state’s smallest programs would be left to the breeze, maybe unable to field a team at all, as six-man is but a distant memory in our three-class 2014. Of those 13, only a handful would be in existence in 2014, large enough to support an 11-man squad. (Of course, in 1976, a few squads opted to play eight-man together instead — a plausible scenario in our alternate 2014.)

Oddly enough, with only three classifications, Wyoming might be able to squeeze all three of its title games into one epic day (instead of one epic weekend) at War Memorial Stadium.

In short, our Fridays (and our old Championship Saturday) would be quite different.

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One of the things to consider is that, with fewer classifications, reclassification would be a much bigger deal. With fewer schools switching classifications from one cycle to the next, and therefore a smaller percentage of schools changing classifications, each move would cause huge shifts in conference balance, competitive equity and a host of other concerns that are somewhat minimized by having more numerous classifications.

Does this alignment look better to you than the one Wyoming uses now? In some ways, I actually like this one better; in some ways, I’m incredibly happy to see the changes time has brought to Wyoming high school football. Share some thoughts and let’s talk reclassification options… if you’re so inclined.

–patrick

What if: 1985 enrollments, modern alignment rules for Wyoming high school football

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Last week, we looked at how the conferences would have formed in 1976 if we used the 2014 conference structure. Today, we’ll jump ahead to 1985.

By 1985, Wyoming had expanded from three football classifications (AA, A and B) to four (4A, 3A, 2A and 1A). At that time, all four were 11-man classifications; the nine-man designation didn’t come along until 1989, and it broke off into its own class in 1990, which gave the state the five football classifications it has had ever since.

Applying this year’s conference alignments to the 1985 enrollment figures, here are the conferences we would have had back then:

Class 4A
1. Natrona, 2,054
2. Cheyenne East, 1,856
3. Cheyenne Central, 1,774
4. Kelly Walsh, 1,587
5. Gillette, 1,579
6. Laramie, 1,246
7. Sheridan, 1,156
8. Rock Springs, 1,101
9. Riverton, 981
10. Green River, 866

Class 3A East
11. Lander, 727
12. Rawlins, 693
15. Douglas, 578
20. Torrington, 469
21. Wheatland, 423
22. Buffalo, 368
Class 3A West
13. Cody, 690
14. Evanston, 670
16. Powell, 518
17. Star Valley, 513
18. Worland, 508
19. Jackson, 507

Class 2A East
23. Newcastle, 336
24. Glenrock, 321
25. Thermopolis, 304
31. Wind River, 187
34. Hanna, 168
35. Lusk, 165
36. Saratoga, 152
Class 2A West
26. Kemmerer, 248
27. Lyman, 237
28. Mountain View, 236
29. Lovell, 228
30. Greybull, 192
32. Pinedale, 185
33. Big Piney, 182

Class 1A 11-man East
38t. Seton, 138
41. Sundance, 129
42. Lingle, 123
44. Guernsey, 114
45. Upton, 109
49. Pine Bluffs, 99
50. Burns, 95
52. Southeast, 87
Class 1A 11-man West
37. Tongue River, 145
38t. Wyoming Indian, 138
40. Moorcroft, 131
43. Rocky Mountain, 118
46. Dubois, 107
47t. Basin, 106
47t. Shoshoni, 106
51. Big Horn, 94

Class 1A six-man East
53. Wright, 82
55. Midwest, 78
56. Hulett, 75
Class 1A six-man West
54. Cokeville, 79
57. Burlington, 67
58. Meeteetse, 64
63. Ten Sleep, 57

This actually shapes up pretty close to the state’s first attempt at a five-class structure in 1990. It’s here where we can see the rise of the western middle-sized town (the likes of Evanston, Kemmerer and others growing and Lander shrinking) forcing some uncomfortable alignments in 3A and 2A, where Lander and Wind River are forced into makeshift “East” conferences.

But that’s nothing compared to 1A, where the consolidation out west and the sheer number of smaller schools in the southeast corner has severely reduced the available schools for a “West” conference. Consequently, to get balanced eight-team conferences, we REALLY have to stretch, as Moorcroft heads west to keep things even.

And those six-man conferences look suspiciously like the nine-man conferences of the early 1990s….

Here are the retroactive five-class champions from 1985:

Class 4A: Natrona over Sheridan. Natrona actually beat Cody in the 1985 4A title game, but with Cody in 4A, the Broncs would have been replaced with… well, the Broncs. NC beat Sheridan 17-13 in the regular season in 1985 in Sheridan.
Class 3A: Cody over Evanston. Cody was the 4A runner-up in 1985; Evanston was the 3A champ over Torrington. In this matchup, the Broncs had the advantage; in five games against common opponents in 1985, Cody was 5-0, while Evanston was 3-2.
Class 2A: Lovell over Glenrock. Glenrock’s only losses were to Rawlins and Torrington, making them the top team in the East, while Lovell only lost to state champ Shoshoni. The nod goes to the Bulldogs, because coin flip.
Class 1A 11-man: Shoshoni over Seton. These two actually met in the 2A title game in 1985, and the Wranglers came out on top. Convenient.
Class 1A six-man: Wright over Cokeville. With real 1A champ Big Horn in a different conference, the real runner-up (Wright) would have met semifinalist Cokeville for the state title — and Wright actually would have had the edge in this one.

In both 1976 and 1985, we’ve had to fudge the geographic limits of the state to come up with equitable conference alignments. In 2014, we’ve had to do the same, but the alignments we’ve got in 2014 are actually pretty well suited for the enrollment splits the state has now. I think the biggest failure would be if, in 20 years from now, Wyoming high schools are using the same conference structure they’re using now. Reclassification is an endless process; just about the time we think we have a handle on it, enrollments will change and the process starts again.

–patrick

What if: 1976 enrollments, modern alignment rules for Wyoming high school football

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Several years ago, my dad gave me a stash of old material that he figured I could use more than he could. In that pile was a 1976-77 WHSAA directory, which — much like today’s directory — included the coaches for each sport, phone numbers, addresses and mascots for every school.

But the old WHSAA directories also included enrollment figures alongside each school’s listing, providing a nice glimpse into the makeup of Wyoming’s classification structure for that era.

In 1976, of course, Wyoming had only three classifications of football — Class AA, Class A and Class B. For football, the largest 14 schools were Class AA, the next 15 were Class A and the rest (33 schools in 1976, including 29 11-man schools and four eight-man schools) were Class B. (See the 1976 classifications and conferences here.)

But what if we retroactively applied the 2014 classification structure, with five classifications and the six-man option, to the state with its 1976 enrollments? What would the conferences have looked like back then with today’s conference structures? And if we squint really hard, can we gain some insights into the state’s current classification structure?

Well, first things first: Since 1976, we’ve lost some schools and we’ve gained some schools. In all, 11 high schools that were open in 1976 are no longer open (St. Mary’s, Medicine Bow, Byron, Goshen Hole, Jeffrey City, Cowley, Deaver-Frannie, Albin, La Grange, Huntley, Manderson). They’re included here. On the flipside, since 1976, Wyoming has had six schools opened or renamed due to consolidation (Cheyenne South, NSI, Riverside, Rocky Mountain, Southeast, Wright). They’re not included here.

Here’s how the conferences would have looked in 1976 if we had used the 2014 conference structure:

Class 4A
1. Natrona, 2,126
2. Cheyenne East, 1,577
3. Cheyenne Central, 1,309
4. Kelly Walsh, 1,301
5. Laramie, 1,196
6. Rock Springs, 1,152
7. Sheridan, 1,112
8. Riverton, 970
9. Gillette, 923
10. Lander, 854

Class 3A East
12. Rawlins, 696
16. Torrington, 554
19. Newcastle, 414
20. Thermopolis, 390
21. Buffalo, 388
22. Douglas, 360
Class 3A West
11. Cody, 733
13. Powell, 645
14. Worland, 582
15. Green River, 556
17. Star Valley, 486
18. Jackson, 434

Class 2A East
24. Wheatland, 322
28. Glenrock, 217
29. Lusk, 203
30. St. Mary’s, 190
31. Sundance, 181
35. Pine Bluffs, 150
36. Tongue River, 146
Class 2A West
23. Evanston, 355
25. Lovell, 266
26. Kemmerer, 262
27. Greybull, 227
32. Pinedale, 178
33. Big Piney, 177
34. Saratoga, 157

Class 1A 11-man East
37t. Upton, 145
41. Lingle, 129
44. Guernsey, 121
45. Moorcroft, 111
47. Big Horn, 104
48. Burns, 102
50. Midwest, 93
51. Medicine Bow, 90
Class 1A 11-man West
37t. Lyman, 145
39. Wind River, 144
40. Wyoming Indian, 138
42t. Basin, 126
42t. Mountain View, 126
46. Hanna, 109
49. Dubois, 97
52. Meeteetse, 84

Class 1A six-man East(ish)
53. Shoshoni, 83
54. Hulett, 80
57. Cokeville, 68
59. Goshen Hole, 62
65. Glendo, 55
Class 1A six-man West (but really Northwest)
56. Burlington, 70
58. Byron, 66
62. Ten Sleep, 56
63. Cowley, 55
64. Deaver-Frannie, 55

Other schools without football programs, with their 1976 enrollments, included Snake River (72), Encampment (59), Jeffrey City (58), Albin (50), Kaycee (48), La Grange (48), Huntley (46), Arvada-Clearmont (45), Manderson (39), Rock River (36), Chugwater (35) and Farson (29). St. Stephens was not a WHSAA member in 1976.

In this scenario, the conference alignments actually line up pretty well. The only place where it gets messy is in six-man, where a predominance of Bighorn Basin teams makes up half the teams in the classification. Splitting those up into two even conferences would be an exercise in futility — so we end up with a “conference” that has Goshen Hole, Cokeville and Hulett all under one umbrella.

We’re stretching it a bit in Class 2A; we’ve got Evanston and Saratoga — two schools that have never played each other in football — in the same conference. And we’ve had to split up some natural geographic rivals to fit them into classifications and conferences. (Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?)

That 3A West sure looks familiar, though.

If we retroactively did some playoff brackets in 1976 with these alignments, we’d likely get championship games that look like this:

Class 4A: Laramie over Cheyenne Central. Without pesky Cody there to ruin it, Laramie coach John Deti Sr. finishes his career with a state title. Laramie beat Central 16-9 in the regular season.
Class 3A: Cody over Green River. Cody was the Class AA champ in 1976, while Green River won the Class A crown. Cody had the edge, thanks to a 2-0 record against common opponents (Green River was 1-1).
Class 2A: Glenrock over Kemmerer. Glenrock didn’t lose to any of the schools classified in this scenario as “2A” schools, while Kemmerer only lost to Evanston and had avenged that loss with a victory earlier in the season. They only had one common opponent, Thermopolis — a team Glenrock beat but Kemmerer didn’t.
Class 1A 11-man: Lyman over Guernsey-Sunrise. This was actually the Class B title game. It’s so nice when we have actual playoff brackets to reference….
Class 1A six-man: Byron over Cokeville. Byron was the Northwest’s representative in the Class B playoffs in 1976 but would have gotten a big challenge from Cokeville, which nearly knocked eventual Class B state champ Lyman from the playoffs.

Next week: 1985 in five classes.

–patrick

Class 4A preview: Who’s the fifth Beatle?

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Class 4A has been the most predictable classification in the state each of the past four years. Four schools (Sheridan, Gillette, Cheyenne East and Natrona) have had their run of the classification. Together the past four years, they’re 104-8 against the other six schools in the classification (Natrona and Sheridan are 27-1, Gillette 26-2 and East 24-4), including 16-0 in the playoffs.

The past four regular seasons have been little more than preludes to semifinal rounds that have been as consistent as Old Faithful. So is 2014 the year that the Federal Trade Commission raids Wyoming’s 4A playoff system, invoking the Sherman Antitrust Act? Well…

Four questions to answer

The fab four again, right? Yes. Gillette, Sheridan, Cheyenne East and Natrona have comprised Class 4A’s semifinal round of the playoffs for the past four years. Pencil in five. As for the order of those four schools? That’s anyone’s guess. The parity at the top of the classification remains strong, and no one of those four teams is the clear-cut favorite.

How will new coaches shake up the classification? Enough to be noticeable. With former Wyoming Cowboy Drew Severn taking over for longtime coach Brick Cegelski at Cheyenne Central and with David Hastings coming from the Utah prep ranks to coach Rock Springs, an upset or two is entirely possible, but it will probably be a couple years before these schools can consistently hang with 4A’s best.

What program will be the biggest surprise this season? Laramie. Year 2 of the Chuck Syverson rebuilding project is underway. Year 1 brought a late-season upset of Kelly Walsh; the Plainsmen also played tough against other solid programs. Remember, this is a program that has only had two first-team all-state selections the past six years. Continued success could help Laramie continue to pull upsets.

Where is Tevis Bartlett going to play college football? Wherever he wants. Now leave him alone (see below).

Four players to watch

Tevis Bartlett, Cheyenne East. Everyone understands Bartlett’s offensive prowess — he ran for 1,400 yards, threw for 1,521 and was in on 32 touchdowns last year. But he was also East’s top tackler a year ago, and he’s as competitive as they come. No wonder he’s drawing interest from top-tier college programs.

Tayton Montgomery, Cheyenne Central. No receiver in the state, regardless of classification, had as many receiving yards as Montgomery did last season (976). With a new coach, Montgomery’s numbers may fluctuate, but his importance to the Indians’ offensive attack remains steadfast.

Logan Wilson, Natrona. Few players are as versatile as Wilson, who was a first-team all-state selection at four positions — wide receiver, defensive back, kicker and punter. He led NC in receiving, scoring and interceptions last season and will be a key piece of the Mustangs’ championship chase.

Talon Nelson, Gillette. The Camels have some rebuilding to do on offense, but Nelson has the No. 1 receiver position on lockdown. He led the team in catches (22) and receiving yards (527) a year ago. Do the math, and it’s clear: He averaged an unreal 24 yards per catch. That’s a threat Gillette needs to break in a new quarterback.

Four key games

Natrona at Cheyenne East, Sept. 5. The rematch of last year’s title game comes early — just one week after the season openers. It’s the first high-profile game of the year, and both teams will be eager to prove themselves.

Natrona at Gillette; Sheridan at Cheyenne East, Sept. 19. This is the only week when the top four teams face each other on the same week. The toughest choice will be choosing which one to attend.

Gillette at Sheridan, Oct. 3. The Energy Bowl is always a big game. It’s even bigger when both schools figure to be a part of the championship race.

Cheyenne East at Gillette, Oct. 23. This regular-season finale might be the biggest game of the season. Well, the biggest game of the regular season.

Predicted order of finish

Cheyenne East, Natrona, Gillette, Sheridan, Cheyenne Central, Evanston, Laramie, Rock Springs, Kelly Walsh, Cheyenne South.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Cheyenne East 22, Gillette 21. Tevis Bartlett caps his high-school career with the game-winning two-point conversion. OK, maybe that’s too specific for a top-loaded classification where anything can happen.

And that’s 4A. Boring old 4A. Or is this the year we see some change? Are we bound for another predictable semifinal round? Or is 2014 the year we see someone else break the monotony of 4A football? Post a comment and let me know what you’re thinking.

–patrick

Class 3A preview: 27 + 2014 = Record?

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Normally, when a team wins 27 consecutive games and three state championships, it gains a New York Yankees-type following: Just as many people want to see that team fail as succeed.

But not Powell. Not this year. Not with this offseason.

Truth is always stranger, more more heart-rending and more amazing than fiction. Powell’s 2014 season will likely be memorable for a variety of reasons, but after what the Panthers have faced this offseason, it’s safe to say no one is rooting to see the Panthers fail this autumn. Except maybe the 11 other schools in Class 3A, who all want their chance to dethrone the Panthers.

Four questions to answer

Can Powell break the state record for consecutive victories? Definitely — but it’s no given. Powell has won 27 consecutive games entering this season. The state record for consecutive victories is 34 (Laramie, 1959-63) and the record for consecutive unbeaten games is 36 (Worland, 1953-56). Powell does face some challenges to that streak, though — namely Miles City, Mont., in a Zero Week game, Douglas in Week 1 and an always-tough rivalry game against Cody in Week 8.

Who has the best chance to keep Powell from four-peating? Douglas or Cody. The Bearcats — losers to Powell in the 2011 and 2013 Class 3A title games — return only two starters on offense but have one of the classification’s stoutest defenses. Cody returns a stable of talented and athletic players. And they both have the chance to get film on the Panthers prior to the playoffs.

Is 3A still top-heavy? Definitely. The favorites are clear; the contenders are clear; the teams that still need development are clear. And the five teams anticipated to be on the top of their conferences — Douglas and Riverton in the East and Powell, Cody and Star Valley in the West — all play each other in the nonconference season. Expect a lot of playoff rematches come the semifinals and state championship.

OK, so you just turned 3A into a five-team race. Which squad is most likely to make you look like a fool? Torrington. The Trailblazers have slowly been gaining respect from 3A coaches statewide and have what may be the most athletic group of players that fourth-year coach Mark Lenhardt has ever had. This might be Torrington’s year to shift from developing to developed.

Four players to watch

Riley Stringer, Powell. Already a two-time all-state selection — and the Casper Star-Tribune’s statewide defensive player of the year last year as a junior — Stringer is one of the best linemen in the state. He is Powell’s leading returning tackler and finished with 15.5 tackles for loss a year ago. Look for more of the same.

Bay Parks, Douglas. Parks is Douglas’ leading returning tackler and led the Bearcats with six sacks a year ago. His influence will be a big part of a young Bearcat squad that has to replace several starters.

Carter Myers, Cody. Myers is a beast on both sides of the ball. He led Cody in rushing yards (1,023) and scoring (103 points) on offense and also led the Broncs in defensive points. If Cody is going to challenge Powell out west, it will be in big part because of Myers.

Theo Dawson, Jackson. Dawson burst on the statewide scene as a sophomore by leading the Broncs, the best rushing team in Class 3A year ago, in rushing yards (924) despite missing a big chunk of the season to injury. As a junior, he could help the Broncs mess up the dreams of some unsuspecting West Conference foes if they’re not ready for him.

Four key games

Powell at Douglas, Sept. 5. The rematch of the 2011 and 2013 Class 3A championship game is important for both squads; the winner of this Week 1 matchup will gain confidence — and a target on its back. Never mind Powell’s whole winning streak thing…

Cody at Star Valley, Sept. 26. The first West Conference game of the season for both teams will help quickly clarify which team has the best chance to challenge Powell’s supremacy.

Douglas at Riverton, Oct. 17. A senior-laden Wolverines squad could be Douglas’ biggest challenge in the East Conference. And Riverton draws the game at home.

Cody at Powell, Oct. 24. If Powell reaches this point in the season without a loss, this game will be for the state’s unbeaten streak record. But it could also be critical for playoff seeding and maybe a conference championship, too.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Douglas, Riverton, Torrington, Lander, Buffalo, Rawlins. West Conference: Powell, Cody, Star Valley, Jackson, Worland, Green River.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Powell 20, Cody 18. There’s enough parity at the top of 3A that a Powell four-peat is not a given. Don’t be surprised if this year’s state champ has a couple losses during the regular season.

Is Powell destined for another undefeated season? Can Cody or Douglas stop them? What other schools have the goods to hang with the best in the class? Let’s start the conversation with your comments.

–patrick

Consecutive winning and losing season streaks in Wyoming high school football

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Throughout its history, the Cokeville Panther football program has been among Wyoming’s best. Longtime coach Todd Dayton, though, took Cokeville’s success to unparalleled heights.

Cokeville had an all-time record of 126-96-10 before Dayton arrived as head coach in 1980. The Panthers’ pre-Dayton winning percentage of .565 would have it just outside the top 10 for active Wyoming programs.

Then Dayton arrived and turned the program into a juggernaut. Dayton’s career record at Cokeville is 282-52 — a .844 winning percentage — and Cokeville’s record of 408-148-10 gives it a winning percentage 0f .730, which is the best among active Wyoming programs by a wide margin.

Consider this: Natrona, which is second to Cokeville in active programs with a .664 winning percentage, would have to win 211 consecutive games to reach Cokeville’s .730 winning percentage.

Consistency is what has given Cokeville its success. In fact, the Panthers are trying to notch their 27th consecutive winning season and their 29th consecutive non-losing season in 2014. Both streaks are the longest in state history.

Through 2013 season, here are Wyoming’s longest streaks of winning, non-losing, non-winning and losing seasons. The asterisk (*) denotes a current streak:

Top 10 winning (better than .500)
1. Cokeville, 26, 1988-2013*
2. Southeast, 16, 1997-2012
3. Glenrock, 15, 1963-77
4t. Byron, 14, 1963-76
4t. Natrona, 14, 1932-45
6t. Douglas, 13, 1948-60
6t. Lusk, 13, 1991-2003
6t. Natrona, 13, 1993-2005
9t. Laramie, 12, 1954-65
9t. Star Valley, 12, 1961-72
9t. Torrington, 12, 1947-58

Top 10 non-losing (.500 or better)
1. Cokeville, 28, 1986-2013*
2. Glenrock, 24, 1956-79
3. Byron, 23, 1954-76
4. Torrington, 22, 1937-58
5. Natrona, 19, 1927-45
6t. Southeast, 17, 1997-2013*
6t. Torrington, 17, 1966-82
8t. Mountain View, 16, 1991-2006
8t. Natrona, 16, 1993-2008
10. Pine Bluffs, 15, 1959-73

Top 10 losing (worse than .500)
1. Newcastle, 22, 1984-2005
2. Sundance, 14, 1941-54
3t. Laramie, 13, 2001-13*
3t. Rawlins, 13, 2001-13*
3t. Wyoming Indian, 13, 1983-95
6t. Burns, 12, 1941-73 (gaps, 1945 and 1947-66)
6t. St. Mary’s, 12, 1960-71
6t. Rawlins, 12, 1987-98
9t. Big Horn, 11, 1959-69
9t. Manville, 11, 1930-41 (gap 1933)
9t. Worland Institute, 11, 1951-61

Top 10 non-winning (.500 or worse)
1. Wyoming Indian, 24, 1983-2006
2. Newcastle, 22, 1984-2005
3. Torrington, 18, 1996-2013*
4. Thermopolis, 17, 1973-89
5. Kelly Walsh, 15, 1987-2001
6t. Basin, 14, 1922-35
6t. Cheyenne East, 14, 1986-99
6t. Greybull, 14, 1963-76
6t. Sundance, 14, 1941-54
10t. Farson, 13, 1940-53 (gap 1952)
10t. Laramie, 13, 2001-13*
10t. Meeteetse, 13, 1941-54 (gap 1943)
10t. Rawlins, 13, 2001-13*

These streaks have been added to the streaks page.

–patrick

Class 2A preview: Where parity unsurprisingly dominates

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Class 2A, due in part to its large number of schools and its consistent turnover of seniors, always seems to have parity. This is especially true at the top of the classification — Class 2A’s playoffs have been among the most exciting the past few years. Will 2014 bring more of the same? Probably….

Four questions to answer

Can Big Horn repeat as state champion? Can they? Yes. Will they? That’s not as clear. The Rams return four of their seven all-state selections from a year ago but have to replace quarterback Connor McCafferty, who was the Casper Star-Tribune’s Super 25 offensive player of the year last year. He won’t be easily replaced, but the Rams have talent in spades everywhere else.

So is Big Horn the favorite in the 2A this year? Well… it depends on who you ask. Big Horn is solid, but so is Mountain View, and Lovell, and Lyman, and Newcastle, and Thermopolis, and…. Class 2A’s parity has been its calling card for several years, but more teams than ever are in the conversation as championship contenders.

Who’s everyone forgetting about? Lovell. It sounds silly to say that a team that started 9-0 and returns five of its nine all-conference selections is overlooked, but the Bulldogs’ success has been overshadowed by the fact that they didn’t make it to Laramie last year. They shouldn’t be: Lovell’s deep and experienced, and it only lost six seniors from last year’s team. Watch out.

Will Thermopolis’ move to the East Conference change anything? Not really. The Bobcats are back in the East after two years in the West Conference. The change isn’t that big to Thermopolis — the only team that’s new to the Bobcats is Wheatland. The two schools haven’t played each other since 1986 but will open East Conference play by facing each other.

Four (OK, five) players to watch

Christian Mayer, Big Horn. When you score five touchdowns in a state championship game, you draw attention. That’s the case for Mayer, who might be Class 2A’s most dangerous wide receiver and return specialist.

Austin Houskeeper and Cade Covington, Mountain View. If the Buffalos return to the state championship game, it will be on the backs of these two-time all-state picks. Covington was Mountain View’s leading rusher last year and Houskeeper had more than 2,100 yards of all-purpose offense — and they both finished in Mountain View’s top three in defensive points.

Tyler Cornwell, Thermopolis. Class 2A had six running backs break 1,000 yards a year ago, but Cornwell is the only one who’s back. Just a junior, Cornwell ran for 1,012 yards a year ago and will run behind an experienced offensive line to boot.

Calder Forcella, Greybull. It’s no surprise the dynamic quarterback of the Buffaloes led his team by throwing for 1,717 yards and 14 touchdowns a year ago. But he also led his team in rushing yards (624) and rushing touchdowns (nine). With a new coach, his numbers might not be as high, but his responsibilities will be just as critical.

Four key games

Big Horn at Lovell, Sept. 5. These two teams have had pretty epic semifinal games the past two years. Now we don’t have to wait until the playoffs to see them face each other.

Lovell at Mountain View, Sept. 26. This game pits the team that won the West Conference title last year against the team that represented the West in the state championship game. And both teams have the goods to be contenders again this year. This one is big.

Mountain View at Lyman, Oct. 24. Mountain View and Lovell are the clear contenders in the West, but don’t forget about Lyman. The Eagles could be one of the classification’s top teams, and the Bridger Valley Bowl on the regular season’s final day could be for a conference title.

Newcastle at Thermopolis, Oct. 24. Both teams have the potential to challenge Big Horn for supremacy in the East Conference. If things go right for both teams, this regular-season finale should be for way more than just bragging rights.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Big Horn, Newcastle, Thermopolis, Wheatland, Burns, Glenrock, Wright. West Conference: Mountain View, Lovell, Lyman, Greybull, Pinedale, Big Piney, Kemmerer.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Big Horn 34, Mountain View 28. If the Rams can find someone as consistent as Connor McCafferty under center, they have the weapons to repeat.

What do you think? Which teams have the best chance of keeping Big Horn from repeating? What teams will be better than we think? Post a comment to kickstart the 2A conversation.

Next Tuesday: Class 3A.

–patrick

Class 1A 11-man preview: Big cats and small fries

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With two clear favorites — one in each conference — Class 1A 11-man seems to have all the drama of a second-grade school play. But we’ve often seen that the more predictable small-school football appears, the less predictable it actually is. Will that be the case in 2014?

Four questions to answer

Is this the year Lusk finally breaks through to win a state championship? For the Tigers’ sake, let’s hope so. No team in the state has won as many games as Lusk has the past four years (36) without winning at least one state championship. The Tigers have done everything right — except win in Laramie, where they’re 0-3 the past four years.

Cokeville stands in their way again, huh? Yep. The Panthers have won three championships in four years. They return four all-state players and have 11 seniors — the biggest senior class coach Todd Dayton has had in his three-plus decades with the Panthers. They haven’t lost a conference game in five years. And all indications are that they’re on track to make it Laramie again this year.

Will anyone challenge Lusk or Cokeville? Probably not. Of the 16 returning all-state players in the classification, seven either play for the Tigers or Panthers. Several squads — Southeast, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Riverside and Rocky Mountain among them — could pose threats, but Lusk and Cokeville start the year head and shoulders above the rest.

Which of the four new teams in the classification has the best chance to contend? Tongue River. Class 1A 11-man expanded from 11 to 15 teams this year, as Wyoming Indian and Saratoga came up after one year in six-man and Tongue River and Moorcroft dropped from Class 2A. Of those, Tongue River has the best chance to make the most immediate impact — the Eagles have improved incrementally since John Scott took over the program in 2012 but have yet to make the postseason.

Four players to watch

Jace Petersen, Cokeville. After missing his sophomore campaign due to injury, Petersen led Cokeville to a state title last year on his legs (746 rushing yards, 14 TDs) and his arm (790 passing yards, another 14 more TDs). A Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team pick last year, he’s also a key piece of Cokeville’s defense and will be one of the classification’s most dynamic players this year.

Derick VandeBossche, Lusk. Few players play as well both offensively and defensively as VandeBossche. Already a two-time all-state pick, he was Lusk’s leading tackler as a junior a year ago and was also a key piece of the offense, rushing for 500 yards and grabbing team highs in receptions (18) and receiving yards (199).

Jett Materi, Upton-Sundance. The Patriots’ best opportunity at a deep playoff run in the history of their three-year co-op just might be this season, thanks in big part to their dynamic running back. Materi, a two-time all-state choice, ran for more than 116 yards per game a year ago and scored 13 of the team’s 21 touchdowns.

Tucker McKim, Riverside. For the second consecutive season, McKim led Class 1A 11-man in receiving yards and catches. He’s put up better combined numbers the past two years (105 catches, 1,455 yards) than seven of the 11 TEAMS in the class the past two years. The Rebels could ride him to an upset or two and could be a darkhorse contender because of his playmaking ability.

Four key games

Riverside at Burlington, Sept. 12. Both the Rebels and Huskies are eager to prove they belong in the discussion for a home playoff game. The loser of this conference opener has a heck of a lot more difficult time to climb back into that discussion.

Cokeville at Rocky Mountain, Sept. 26. One of the Panthers’ most difficult challenges on their way to a sixth consecutive conference championship will be this road date with a Grizzlies.

Tongue River at Lingle, Oct. 17. One of the most intriguing East Conference games comes when the Eagles venture south to play the Doggers in the first meeting between the two programs — and it might be for a playoff spot.

Southeast at Lusk, Oct. 17. Tigers-Cyclones. Write it down. In ink. This is always, always, ALWAYS a big game. This game has influenced the conference championship race every season since 2009 when the schools were rejoined in Class 1A 11-man.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Lusk, Southeast, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Tongue River, Pine Bluffs, Moorcroft. West Conference: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Burlington, Shoshoni, Saratoga, Wind River, Wyoming Indian.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Lusk 21, Cokeville 16. No one can say the Tigers don’t deserve a title. This is the year the law of averages works in Lusk’s favor.

So is this finally Lusk’s year? Will Cokeville’s massive senior class get in the Tigers’ way again? Could Southeast, or Rocky Mountain, or someone else sneak in and nab the title unexpectedly? Let’s start the discussion with your thoughts….

–patrick

Class 1A six-man preview: What now?

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The best teams were hit hard by graduation. The best players are gone. In Class 1A six-man, the loss of the graduating class of 2014 has created uncertainty. In the first of our five classification previews, we look at how six-man might come together this fall:

Four questions to answer

What now? That’s the question many around six-man are asking. With the classification’s two most exciting players — Dubois’ Sterling Baker and Meeteetse’s Seth Bennett — lost to graduation, a big, gaping hole exists at the top of the classification for both individual and team accolades. Aside from the initial season in 2009, the six-man classification has never started a season with so much uncertainty.

So with all the turnover, who’s the favorite? Guernsey-Sunrise. The Vikings are the consensus favorite in six-man thanks to their bevy of returning players. Semifinalists a year ago, Guernsey will lean on back Brady Esquibel to help get the team back to Laramie for the first time since going undefeated in 2009.

What about out West? The West Conference is a complete toss-up this year — the two dominant programs last year, Meeteetse and Dubois, lost a lot to graduation, while the remaining teams in the conference (Snake River, Farson, St. Stephens and Ten Sleep) should all be vastly improved. Look for a lot more parity in the West than in the East.

Will Rock River win a game in its first varsity season? Probably more than one. The Longhorns, who have played junior-varsity ball the past two seasons, have proven that they won’t be a pushover once they make the move to varsity play. And the schedule is kind — Rock River faces two teams that went winless last season (St. Stephens and NSI) in its first two games of the season.

Four players to watch

Brady Esquibel, Guernsey-Sunrise. No returning player in six-man had more rushing yards than Esquibel’s 1,505 last year. He ran for 28 touchdowns, threw nine more and caught one, too, and was second for the Vikings in defensive points. If the Vikings are to cash in on their preseason ranking, it’ll be in big part thanks to Esquibel.

Rowan Hawk, Dubois. Hawk was a key piece of Dubois’ 2013 season, leading the team in catches and receiving yards as well as defensive points. His presence will be crucial if the Rams want to make it back to Laramie after missing out last season.

Shawn Shepperson, Meeteetse. The defending champs have a key returner in Shepperson, who led the team in defensive points a year ago. Shepperson is also Meeteetse’s leading returning rusher. His presence helps give the Longhorns experience and stability on a team that lost a lot to graduation.

Taylor Rouse, Kaycee. Six-man is a game for versatile players, and few are more versatile than Rouse. The only sophomore selected to the Class 1A six-man all-state team last year, he ran for 997 yards, threw for 645 more and had 226 receiving yards to boot. He led the Buckaroos in scoring and is also the team’s leading returning tackler.

Four key games

Guernsey-Sunrise at Kaycee, Sept. 13. It almost seems unfair to have the game that pits the two favorites for the East Conference championship in the second week of the season. But the Vikings and Buckaroos will figure out real quick if they’re going to spend the season as the one doing the chasing or the one being chased.

Meeteetse at Snake River, Sept. 13. The Longhorns’ defense of their West Conference championship starts with a road trip to Baggs to play what might be the most improved team in the classification. This game will be a key indicator for both teams early in the season.

Midwest at Kaycee, Sept. 27. If either the Oilers or Buckaroos want to make a serious run at a state championship game berth, this game will be critical. By late October, this game could decide who gets to host a playoff game and who has to hit the road.

Dubois at Meeteetse, Oct. 3. Don’t sleep on the Rams. Despite losing all-everything player Sterling Baker, Dubois has the athleticism to compete with any team in the classification — even the defending champs.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Guernsey, Kaycee, Hanna, Midwest, Rock River, Hulett, NSI. West Conference: Meeteetse, Dubois, Snake River, Farson, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Guernsey-Sunrise 54, Kaycee 40. The Vikings are pretty much everyone’s preseason pick in six-man. Those are high expectations for a team that hasn’t been to Laramie since 2009, but Guernsey is deep and talented enough to justify those ideas.

So who do you think is the favorite in a year of uncertainty? Which team has the best shot to win it all in Laramie? Who might be a surprise? Share your thoughts with a comment or five.

Next Tuesday: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick