Category Archives: Ramblings

Last week, we looked at how the conferences would have formed in 1976 if we used the 2014 conference structure. Today, we’ll jump ahead to 1985.

By 1985, Wyoming had expanded from three football classifications (AA, A and B) to four (4A, 3A, 2A and 1A). At that time, all four were 11-man classifications; the nine-man designation didn’t come along until 1989, and it broke off into its own class in 1990, which gave the state the five football classifications it has had ever since.

Applying this year’s conference alignments to the 1985 enrollment figures, here are the conferences we would have had back then:

Class 4A
1. Natrona, 2,054
2. Cheyenne East, 1,856
3. Cheyenne Central, 1,774
4. Kelly Walsh, 1,587
5. Gillette, 1,579
6. Laramie, 1,246
7. Sheridan, 1,156
8. Rock Springs, 1,101
9. Riverton, 981
10. Green River, 866

Class 3A East
11. Lander, 727
12. Rawlins, 693
15. Douglas, 578
20. Torrington, 469
21. Wheatland, 423
22. Buffalo, 368
Class 3A West
13. Cody, 690
14. Evanston, 670
16. Powell, 518
17. Star Valley, 513
18. Worland, 508
19. Jackson, 507

Class 2A East
23. Newcastle, 336
24. Glenrock, 321
25. Thermopolis, 304
31. Wind River, 187
34. Hanna, 168
35. Lusk, 165
36. Saratoga, 152
Class 2A West
26. Kemmerer, 248
27. Lyman, 237
28. Mountain View, 236
29. Lovell, 228
30. Greybull, 192
32. Pinedale, 185
33. Big Piney, 182

Class 1A 11-man East
38t. Seton, 138
41. Sundance, 129
42. Lingle, 123
44. Guernsey, 114
45. Upton, 109
49. Pine Bluffs, 99
50. Burns, 95
52. Southeast, 87
Class 1A 11-man West
37. Tongue River, 145
38t. Wyoming Indian, 138
40. Moorcroft, 131
43. Rocky Mountain, 118
46. Dubois, 107
47t. Basin, 106
47t. Shoshoni, 106
51. Big Horn, 94

Class 1A six-man East
53. Wright, 82
55. Midwest, 78
56. Hulett, 75
Class 1A six-man West
54. Cokeville, 79
57. Burlington, 67
58. Meeteetse, 64
63. Ten Sleep, 57

This actually shapes up pretty close to the state’s first attempt at a five-class structure in 1990. It’s here where we can see the rise of the western middle-sized town (the likes of Evanston, Kemmerer and others growing and Lander shrinking) forcing some uncomfortable alignments in 3A and 2A, where Lander and Wind River are forced into makeshift “East” conferences.

But that’s nothing compared to 1A, where the consolidation out west and the sheer number of smaller schools in the southeast corner has severely reduced the available schools for a “West” conference. Consequently, to get balanced eight-team conferences, we REALLY have to stretch, as Moorcroft heads west to keep things even.

And those six-man conferences look suspiciously like the nine-man conferences of the early 1990s….

Here are the retroactive five-class champions from 1985:

Class 4A: Natrona over Sheridan. Natrona actually beat Cody in the 1985 4A title game, but with Cody in 4A, the Broncs would have been replaced with… well, the Broncs. NC beat Sheridan 17-13 in the regular season in 1985 in Sheridan.
Class 3A: Cody over Evanston. Cody was the 4A runner-up in 1985; Evanston was the 3A champ over Torrington. In this matchup, the Broncs had the advantage; in five games against common opponents in 1985, Cody was 5-0, while Evanston was 3-2.
Class 2A: Lovell over Glenrock. Glenrock’s only losses were to Rawlins and Torrington, making them the top team in the East, while Lovell only lost to state champ Shoshoni. The nod goes to the Bulldogs, because coin flip.
Class 1A 11-man: Shoshoni over Seton. These two actually met in the 2A title game in 1985, and the Wranglers came out on top. Convenient.
Class 1A six-man: Wright over Cokeville. With real 1A champ Big Horn in a different conference, the real runner-up (Wright) would have met semifinalist Cokeville for the state title — and Wright actually would have had the edge in this one.

In both 1976 and 1985, we’ve had to fudge the geographic limits of the state to come up with equitable conference alignments. In 2014, we’ve had to do the same, but the alignments we’ve got in 2014 are actually pretty well suited for the enrollment splits the state has now. I think the biggest failure would be if, in 20 years from now, Wyoming high schools are using the same conference structure they’re using now. Reclassification is an endless process; just about the time we think we have a handle on it, enrollments will change and the process starts again.

–patrick

Several years ago, my dad gave me a stash of old material that he figured I could use more than he could. In that pile was a 1976-77 WHSAA directory, which — much like today’s directory — included the coaches for each sport, phone numbers, addresses and mascots for every school.

But the old WHSAA directories also included enrollment figures alongside each school’s listing, providing a nice glimpse into the makeup of Wyoming’s classification structure for that era.

In 1976, of course, Wyoming had only three classifications of football — Class AA, Class A and Class B. For football, the largest 14 schools were Class AA, the next 15 were Class A and the rest (33 schools in 1976, including 29 11-man schools and four eight-man schools) were Class B. (See the 1976 classifications and conferences here.)

But what if we retroactively applied the 2014 classification structure, with five classifications and the six-man option, to the state with its 1976 enrollments? What would the conferences have looked like back then with today’s conference structures? And if we squint really hard, can we gain some insights into the state’s current classification structure?

Well, first things first: Since 1976, we’ve lost some schools and we’ve gained some schools. In all, 11 high schools that were open in 1976 are no longer open (St. Mary’s, Medicine Bow, Byron, Goshen Hole, Jeffrey City, Cowley, Deaver-Frannie, Albin, La Grange, Huntley, Manderson). They’re included here. On the flipside, since 1976, Wyoming has had six schools opened or renamed due to consolidation (Cheyenne South, NSI, Riverside, Rocky Mountain, Southeast, Wright). They’re not included here.

Here’s how the conferences would have looked in 1976 if we had used the 2014 conference structure:

Class 4A
1. Natrona, 2,126
2. Cheyenne East, 1,577
3. Cheyenne Central, 1,309
4. Kelly Walsh, 1,301
5. Laramie, 1,196
6. Rock Springs, 1,152
7. Sheridan, 1,112
8. Riverton, 970
9. Gillette, 923
10. Lander, 854

Class 3A East
12. Rawlins, 696
16. Torrington, 554
19. Newcastle, 414
20. Thermopolis, 390
21. Buffalo, 388
22. Douglas, 360
Class 3A West
11. Cody, 733
13. Powell, 645
14. Worland, 582
15. Green River, 556
17. Star Valley, 486
18. Jackson, 434

Class 2A East
24. Wheatland, 322
28. Glenrock, 217
29. Lusk, 203
30. St. Mary’s, 190
31. Sundance, 181
35. Pine Bluffs, 150
36. Tongue River, 146
Class 2A West
23. Evanston, 355
25. Lovell, 266
26. Kemmerer, 262
27. Greybull, 227
32. Pinedale, 178
33. Big Piney, 177
34. Saratoga, 157

Class 1A 11-man East
37t. Upton, 145
41. Lingle, 129
44. Guernsey, 121
45. Moorcroft, 111
47. Big Horn, 104
48. Burns, 102
50. Midwest, 93
51. Medicine Bow, 90
Class 1A 11-man West
37t. Lyman, 145
39. Wind River, 144
40. Wyoming Indian, 138
42t. Basin, 126
42t. Mountain View, 126
46. Hanna, 109
49. Dubois, 97
52. Meeteetse, 84

Class 1A six-man East(ish)
53. Shoshoni, 83
54. Hulett, 80
57. Cokeville, 68
59. Goshen Hole, 62
65. Glendo, 55
Class 1A six-man West (but really Northwest)
56. Burlington, 70
58. Byron, 66
62. Ten Sleep, 56
63. Cowley, 55
64. Deaver-Frannie, 55

Other schools without football programs, with their 1976 enrollments, included Snake River (72), Encampment (59), Jeffrey City (58), Albin (50), Kaycee (48), La Grange (48), Huntley (46), Arvada-Clearmont (45), Manderson (39), Rock River (36), Chugwater (35) and Farson (29). St. Stephens was not a WHSAA member in 1976.

In this scenario, the conference alignments actually line up pretty well. The only place where it gets messy is in six-man, where a predominance of Bighorn Basin teams makes up half the teams in the classification. Splitting those up into two even conferences would be an exercise in futility — so we end up with a “conference” that has Goshen Hole, Cokeville and Hulett all under one umbrella.

We’re stretching it a bit in Class 2A; we’ve got Evanston and Saratoga — two schools that have never played each other in football — in the same conference. And we’ve had to split up some natural geographic rivals to fit them into classifications and conferences. (Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?)

That 3A West sure looks familiar, though.

If we retroactively did some playoff brackets in 1976 with these alignments, we’d likely get championship games that look like this:

Class 4A: Laramie over Cheyenne Central. Without pesky Cody there to ruin it, Laramie coach John Deti Sr. finishes his career with a state title. Laramie beat Central 16-9 in the regular season.
Class 3A: Cody over Green River. Cody was the Class AA champ in 1976, while Green River won the Class A crown. Cody had the edge, thanks to a 2-0 record against common opponents (Green River was 1-1).
Class 2A: Glenrock over Kemmerer. Glenrock didn’t lose to any of the schools classified in this scenario as “2A” schools, while Kemmerer only lost to Evanston and had avenged that loss with a victory earlier in the season. They only had one common opponent, Thermopolis — a team Glenrock beat but Kemmerer didn’t.
Class 1A 11-man: Lyman over Guernsey-Sunrise. This was actually the Class B title game. It’s so nice when we have actual playoff brackets to reference….
Class 1A six-man: Byron over Cokeville. Byron was the Northwest’s representative in the Class B playoffs in 1976 but would have gotten a big challenge from Cokeville, which nearly knocked eventual Class B state champ Lyman from the playoffs.

Next week: 1985 in five classes.

–patrick

In the last blog post, we looked at the increasing average margin of victory in Wyoming high school football games. Specifically, we noted that 2009 was the year in which margins of victory grew significantly.

But why 2009?

Well, the answer is pretty simple, really: conference size.

Conferences were restructured prior to the 2009 season; in that change, the number of teams per conference, especially in 4A, 2A and 1A, exploded.

In 2008, the largest conference in the state was six teams. In 2009, the smallest 11-man conference in the state were the two 3A conferences with six teams each; the conferences in 2A and 1A 11-man were eight teams deep while 4A made its move to one 10-team superconference.

We understood, even prior to the 2009 season, that travel mileage would increase because of this change. Here’s a blog post I wrote in January 2009 that addressed just this problem.

One of the hidden repercussions of the change, though, was the decline in the competitiveness of regular-season games. To be honest, I don’t think anyone foresaw that.

Yet, here we are. Teams are traveling farther to play in games that aren’t as competitive.

Just like in 2009, I think the answer is straightforward: smaller conferences.

Similar to the proposal I outlined five-plus years ago, I humbly submit these conference alignments for discussion:

Class 4A
East: Gillette, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne South, Sheridan.
West: Natrona, Rock Springs, Kelly Walsh, Laramie, Evanston.
Top four teams in each conference qualify for playoffs.

Class 3A
East: Douglas, Torrington, Buffalo.
Central: Riverton, Rawlins, Lander.
Northwest: Cody, Powell, Worland.
Southwest: Green River, Star Valley, Jackson.
Top two teams in each conference qualify for playoffs. Conference brackets rotate on a three-year basis.

Class 2A
East: Wheatland, Newcastle, Glenrock, Burns, Wright.
North: Lovell, Thermopolis, Greybull, Big Horn.
Southwest: Pinedale, Mountain View, Lyman, Big Piney, Kemmerer.
Top two teams in each conference, plus the third-place teams in the Southwest and East (as the largest conferences) qualify for playoffs. Seeding set by rotation (teams from same conference won’t play each other in first round).

Class 1A 11-man
Northeast: Moorcroft, Tongue River, Sundance, Upton (or Upton-Sundance).
Northwest: Rocky Mountain, Shoshoni, Riverside, Burlington.
Southeast: Lusk, Pine Bluffs, Southeast, Lingle.
Southwest: Wyoming Indian, Wind River, Saratoga, Cokeville.
Top two teams in each conference qualify for playoffs. Conference brackets rotate on two-year basis (no cross-corner brackets in first round, e.g. Northwest teams won’t ever play Southeast teams in first round and Northeast won’t play Southwest in first round).

Class 1A six-man
Northeast: NSI, Midwest, Hulett, Kaycee.
Northwest: St. Stephens, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep.
Southeast: Hanna, Guernsey-Sunrise, Rock River.
Southwest: Dubois, Farson, Snake River.
Top two teams in each conference qualify for playoffs. Conference brackets rotate on two-year basis (no cross-corner brackets in first round, e.g. Northwest teams won’t ever play Southeast teams in first round and Northeast won’t play Southwest in first round).

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Smaller conferences allow flexibility. I’ve set this up so the largest conference is five teams, meaning that no one school will play more than four conference games — allowing at least half the season to be focused on close, competitive nonconference games. For example, in my proposal, Laramie is not in the same conference as any of the Cheyenne schools; however, the Plainsmen have enough flexibility in their schedule to allow them to play all three in the nonconference season.

Smaller conferences are not magic, though. And it creates flaws, especially in the playoffs. In the semifinal round, specifically, teams would “earn” hosting duties on rotation, not on record; with this system, it’s only a matter of time before some 4-5 conference champ hosts a 9-0 team simply because of the hosting rotation. We saw that quite a bit in the 1980s and 1990s, and it frustrated a handful of teams that were forced to travel — or left out of the playoffs completely (see Midwest, 1986, which went 7-1 but did not qualify for the postseason because of no other reason than playoff rotation).

To their credit, larger conferences and competitive-equity scheduling have made playoffs more representative of the “best eight” in each classification. And I do think that putting a focus on having teams play other teams of a similar skill level — other varsity teams when possible — is a laudable goal.

But the method used for establishing this competitive equity hasn’t worked — specifically, building massive conferences to develop competitive equity in the regular season and to get “the best eight teams” into the playoffs has resulted in increased travel, more blowouts and a more frustrating regular-season experience for players, coaches and fans.

I don’t think we’ll ever see travel levels reduced to the levels we saw in the 1990s, because some changes that Wyoming has made are here to stay. Schools are probably sticking with the eight-game or nine-game regular seasons; they’re probably going to let the WHSAA continue to do the scheduling; they’re probably not returning to scheduling two or three or four sub-varsity opponents in one season.

Smaller conferences won’t fix all of that. But they’re a start.

The conference alignments in use this year will also be used in 2015. The WHSAA won’t have the chance to address conference size until it goes through its next reclassification cycle in the fall of 2015, prior to the 2016 season.

Between now and then?

Better save your gas money. And start doing squats.

–patrick

This week, we’ve looked at the myriad options Wyoming schools have for reducing travel for ridiculously long road trips and we’ve examined how average travel distance has increased by more than 50 miles per game, one way, in the past 20 years. Today, we’re going to examine why schools have traded away short road trips for long ones.

In short, eight reasons explain why Wyoming schools are traveling more than 50 more miles per road game, one way, than they were 20 years ago:

1. Schools want competitive equity. This is BY FAR the most important of these reasons. Back in 1994, the state was in a bust cycle. Finances were a key concern for schools across the state. That meant keeping teams as close to home as possible, even if that meant playing a JV team or playing a game that was nearby but may result in a blowout.

Now, in 2014, the state is booming again. Finances still carry weight but, clearly, travel costs are less of a concern, and schools are more comfortable with traveling farther to play teams of similar skill level. All the other reasons listed below have their genesis in this reason.

2. The conferences are bigger. Competitive equity is not just tied to the regular season — there’s been a concerted effort to get “the best eight teams” into each playoff bracket. That means putting more teams into each conference to try to eliminate the possibility of an “undeserving” team with one upset to its name sneaking in to the playoffs, or having a second-place team in a small conference qualify for the playoffs even if it’s significantly worse than a third-place team in another conference that didn’t qualify. By far, the size of the conferences is the second-most important reason for increased travel, and it was directly spawned by competitive equity concerns.

For example, look at Tongue River’s 1998 season. The Eagles did not qualify for the playoffs, finishing 0-2 in the three-team Class 1A-Division I Northeast Conference. Meanwhile, Wright finished 1-1 in the Southeast Conference and qualified for the playoffs, despite losing to Tongue River 25-8 during the regular season. Of the six teams in the “East,” Tongue River was one of the four best but didn’t qualify for the playoffs for no other reason than its three-team conference was stronger than Wright’s three-team conference.

That was one of the drawbacks of small conferences — every once in a while, the conferences did not reflect an accurate dispersal of talent in the classification, and the best two (or four) teams in a conference qualified for the playoffs instead of the best eight in the state.

Consider this: Twenty years ago, the largest conferences in the state were six teams deep; some conferences were as small as three teams. In 2014, the SMALLEST conference in the state will be six teams; other conferences will be seven, eight, or in the case of Class 4A, 10 teams.

In theory, what happened to Tongue River in 1998 won’t happen with these larger regional conferences.

This is a small piece of a larger trend in Wyoming high school sports — the move from districts to regions. Just as other sports (specifically basketball and volleyball, and to a lesser extent track) changed from (northeast, southeast, southeast or southwest) district to (east or west) regional events starting in the late 1990s, football has moved from small district conferences of three to five schools to large regional conferences of six, seven or eight schools. The main reason why this has happened is simple: getting “the best eight” to state and competitive equity at the state tournament.

3. The regular season is longer. One of the biggest influences on Wyoming’s increased travel distances is its longer regular season. From 1993 to 2000, four of Wyoming’s five classifications had seven-game regular seasons (Class 3A had an eight-game regular season but a smaller playoff bracket). However, when the WHSAA took over football scheduling in 2001, schools in all classifications voted to expand to an eight-game regular season. By 2009, Class 4A schedules were officially expanded to nine games. Of course, with more weeks to fill, schools had to stray farther from home to find opponents.

4. Schools don’t play sub-varsity games anymore. Part of why the WHSAA took over football scheduling in 2001 was to help every school in the state complete a full schedule. Prior to 2001, many schools couldn’t fill out a seven-game regular season, much less an eight- or nine-game schedule. Schools that were most susceptible to this problem were the ones in far-flung places like Pinedale, Big Piney, Cokeville, Saratoga or Dubois. The WHSAA’s intervention was incredibly successful in helping schools fill out their schedules with quality varsity competition. The tradeoff, though, was that to fill those schedules with other varsity teams, teams had to travel farther (or teams had to travel farther to come to them).

5. Schools don’t play interclass games anymore. One of the fallouts of larger conferences is fewer nonconference opportunities. The trend, especially the last few years, has been for the WHSAA to fill those nonconference dates with teams from the same classification. For comparison’s sake: In 1994, there were 25 varsity-versus-varsity in-state interclass games. In 2014, there will be seven; they’re all in Week 1, and none of them involve Class 4A or Class 1A six-man schools.

6. The state has basically abandoned out-of-state scheduling. In 1994, Wyoming schools scheduled 24 out-of-state varsity football games. Those games had an average one-way distance of 121.2 miles — more than 20 miles shorter than the average game that year. In 2014, the WHSAA scheduled three out-of-state games. Three. Those other states, and the teams they contain, may as well not even exist. An easy way to get close, competitive games had been all but closed off.

7. Wyoming added six-man football. Six-man football’s resurrection in 2009 has definitely created some long road trips. But it’s important to note that six-man alone hasn’t thrown Wyoming’s travel stats out of whack. In fact, six-man’s anticipated travel in 2014 (average 190 miles per game, one way) is actually shorter than the state average (193 miles per game, one way) for the season. However, six-man’s influence has affected 11-man, too. Some schools’ move to six-man — particularly Guernsey, Hanna and Dubois — has eliminated some nearby games for regional competition, forcing those schools’ former opponents to travel farther for road games. Also, unlike their nine-man alter egos from the early 1990s, six-man programs can’t play 11-man teams in nonconference games.

8. Schools don’t want local control. Since power ratings were removed from the playoff qualifying equation after the 2008 season, the WHSAA has offered schools the chance to return to scheduling their own football games. Thus far, the schools have refused to retake local control. This way, schools’ schedules stay full — and the hassle of building a schedule stays with the WHSAA and away from the schools’ activities directors, who don’t mind the reduced workload — but opportunities for nearby out-of-state or sub-varsity games are greatly diminished.

The biggest reason why travel is as out of control as it is? Travel isn’t the priority in scheduling. Competitive equity is. Unless (or until) schools decide that travel, and travel costs, outweigh competitive equity, players will need to dedicate some extra time to squats to prepare their butt muscles for 50 extra miles sitting in the bus prior to kickoff….

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Still, the big question hanging over all of this has yet to be answered: Has the schools’ collective focus on competitive equity over travel really made a difference? Are games closer on the scoreboard now that competitive equity is the focus in scheduling?

In short, no. Actually, the focus on competitive equity in scheduling has made games MORE lopsided than before.

Here’s a look at the average and median margin of victory the past 26 regular seasons (no playoff games included) of Wyoming high school football — the 13 prior to the WHSAA taking over state scheduling and the 13 since. I’ve also included the standard deviation. Six-man results, which skew to larger margins of victory and which have only been around on a statewide basis since 2009, have been removed to allow for a comparison across all years:

Year	Average MOV	Median MOV	Std Dev
1988	19.8	18	13.4
1989	20.6	19	13.8
1990	19.6	18	13.6
1991	18.9	17	13.6
1992	20.4	19	14.6
1993	20	18	13.5
1994	20.9	20.5	13.7
1995	18.7	15	12.9
1996	20.7	18	13.8
1997	20.4	20	13.7
1998	20	18	13.7
1999	21.6	20	15.1
2000	24.5	24	14.8
2001	22.3	21	14.2
2002	23.5	20	16.5
2003	24.8	23	15.1
2004	23.9	21	15.4
2005	21.5	21	14.4
2006	20.6	18.5	14.4
2007	19.8	18	13.1
2008	22	20	15.1
2009	23.1	20	16
2010	25.4	24	17.8
2011	24.6	22	16.1
2012	27	27	16.6
2013	25	23	15.5

A quick glance at this table tells us something immediately: The average margin of victory the past 13 years, since the WHSAA took over scheduling, is higher than it was the previous 13 years. But we need to dig deeper to see why.

It’s important to note that margin of victory was increasing before the state took over in 2001. The average MOVs in 1999 and 2000 were the highest they had been in more than a decade, and the WHSAA’s first schedule in 2001 actually reduced the average MOV from its 2000 peak. And even through 2008, MOVs stayed fairly stable and consistent — and not that much higher than the MOVs from the previous decade.

Then we hit 2009, and average and median MOVs exploded, all the way up to a one-season high of 27 (both average and median) in 2012. In fact, the four-year stretch from 2010-13 contains four of the five highest average margins of victory for the past 26 years.

Obviously, something changed. So what happened in 2009 that caused MOVs to explode? (Don’t say six-man. Remember, six-man results have been removed from this analysis.)

The answer is more straightforward than you think. And one simple change could address several of the problems Wyoming has seen the past few years. We’ll talk about it in the next blog post.

–patrick