Wyoming high school football playoff scenarios entering Week 8, 2023

Here are the playoff scenarios for all classifications of Wyoming high school football entering Week 8 of the 2023 season:

Class 4A
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Cheyenne Central at Rock Springs; Natrona at Thunder Basin; Sheridan at Campbell County.
Sheridan: In. No. 1 seed.
Cheyenne East: In. No. 2 seed.
Natrona: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 5 seed with loss and Campbell County victory. Tie for 3-4-5 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and Sheridan victory.
Campbell County: In. No. 3 seed with victory and Thunder Basin victory. No. 4 seed with Natrona victory, win or lose. Tie for 3-4-5 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and Thunder Basin victory.
Thunder Basin: In. Tie for 3-4-5 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Sheridan victory. No. 4 seed with victory and Campbell County victory. No. 5 seed with loss.
Cheyenne Central, Rock Springs: In. No. 6 seed with victory. No. 7 seed with loss.
Kelly Walsh: In. No. 8 seed.
Cheyenne South, Laramie: Out.
In the scenario where Natrona, Campbell County and Thunder Basin tie for the 3-4-5 seeds, score differential breaks the tie. Current differentials are Natrona +10, Campbell County +2, Thunder Basin -12. In this scenario, if Thunder Basin wins by eight or fewer, Natrona wins the tiebreaker and the No. 3 seed, with Campbell County 4 and Thunder Basin 5. If Thunder Basin wins by nine or more, Campbell County wins the tiebreaker, with Thunder Basin 4 and Natrona 5.
Note: Kelly Walsh loses potential tiebreakers for the 6-7-8 seeds with both Central and Rock Springs, so the Trojans cannot climb higher than the No. 8 seed.

Class 3A East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Douglas at Lander; Rawlins at Buffalo; Worland at Riverton.
Buffalo, Douglas, Riverton, Worland: In. Seeding options galore. See below.
Lander, Rawlins: Out.
Potential scenarios include:

Douglas beats Lander
	Riverton	Buffalo	Douglas	Worland
Riverton win, Buffalo win*	1	2	3	4
Riverton win, Rawlins win	2	3	1	4
Worland win, Buffalo win	4	1	2	3
Worland win, Rawlins win**	4	2	1	3
Lander beats Douglas
Riverton win, Buffalo win	1	2	3	4
Riverton win, Rawlins win	1	2	3	4
Worland win, Buffalo win***	4	1	2	3
Worland win, Rawlins win****	Tie 1-2-3-4	Tie 1-2-3-4	Tie 1-2-3-4	Tie 1-2-3-4

*In case of a Buffalo-Riverton-Douglas three-way tie for the 1-2-3 seeds, Riverton wins the No. 1 seed by point differential (Riverton +3, Buffalo -1, Douglas -2). Buffalo gets the No. 2 seed by virtue of the head-to-head victory against Douglas.
**In case of a Riverton-Buffalo-Worland three-way tie for the 2-3-4 seeds, Buffalo earns the tiebreaker with the victory over the highest-ranking non-tied team (Douglas). Worland would earn the No. 3 seed with the victory over Riverton.
***In case of a Riverton-Douglas-Worland three-way tie for the 2-3-4 seeds, Douglas earns the tiebreaker with head-to-head victories over both teams. Worland would be No. 3 by defeating Riverton.
****In case of a four-way tie for first, the WHSAA’s four-way tiebreaker is used. I believe (but am not certain) Buffalo would be No. 1 and Douglas No. 2, as they are 2-1 against opponents in the tie and have the “advantage,” with Buffalo earning the head-to-head against Douglas for No. 1. Then Worland, with a head-to-head against Riverton, would be No. 3, and Riverton No. 4. That said, we’ve never seen a four-way tiebreaker used. I say we ro-sham-bo for it.

Class 3A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Evanston at Green River; Jackson at Star Valley; Powell at Cody.
Star Valley: In. No. 1 seed.
Cody, Powell: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Evanston: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory. Out with loss and Jackson victory. Tie for 4-out-out seeds with loss and Star Valley victory (point differential to break).
Jackson: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory and Green River victory. Tie for 4-out-out seeds with loss and Green River victory. Out with Evanston victory, win or lose.
Green River: Neither in nor out. Tie for 4-out-out seeds with victory and Star Valley victory (point differential to break). Out with Jackson victory. Out with loss.
If Green River, Evanston and Jackson tie for the No. 4 seed, point differential will help decide the tiebreaker. Evanston is currently +12, Jackson 0 and Green River -12. Green River would have to beat Evanston by 12 or more to force a coin flip for the final spot. If Green River wins by 11 or fewer, Evanston wins the tiebreaker and would earn the No. 4 seed.

Class 2A East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Tongue River at Wheatland.
Big Horn: In. No. 1 seed.
Torrington: In. No. 2 seed.
Tongue River, Wheatland: In. No. 3 seed with victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Burns, Glenrock, Newcastle, Upton-Sundance: Out.

Class 2A West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Cokeville at Lyman; Thermopolis at Lovell.
Mountain View: In. No. 1 seed.
Cokeville: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Thermopolis victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (point differential to break) with loss and Lovell victory.
Lyman: Neither in nor out. No. 2 seed with victory and Thermopolis victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (point differential to break) with victory and Lovell victory. No. 4 seed with loss and Lovell victory. Tie for 3-4-out seeds (point differential to break) with loss and Thermopolis victory.
Lovell: Neither in nor out. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (point differential to break) with victory and Lyman victory. No. 3 seed with victory and Cokeville victory. Tie for 3-4-out seeds (point differential to break) with loss and Cokeville victory. Out with loss and Lyman victory.
Thermopolis: Neither in nor out. No. 4 seed with victory and Lyman victory. Tie for 3-4-out seeds (point differential to break) with victory and Cokeville victory. Out with loss.
Kemmerer, Pinedale: Out.
In the scenario where Cokeville, Lyman and Lovell tie for the 2-3-4 seeds, the score differential tiebreaker will be used. Current differentials are Cokeville +12, Lovell -4, Lyman -8. In this scenario, if Lyman beats Cokeville by nine or fewer, Cokeville wins the tiebreaker and would be the No. 2 seed, with Lovell then No. 3 and Lyman 4. If Lyman beats Cokeville by 10 or more, Lyman wins the tiebreaker and is No. 2, with Cokeville No. 3 and Lovell No. 4.
In the scenario where Lyman, Lovell and Thermopolis tie for the 3-4-out seeds, the score differential tiebreaker also comes into play. Current differentials are Lovell +8, Lyman +4 and Thermopolis -12. In this scenario, if Thermopolis beats Lovell by four or fewer points, Lovell wins the tiebreaker and the No. 3 seed, with Lyman getting the 4 and Thermopolis finishing out. If Thermopolis wins by five points or more, then Lyman wins the tiebreaker, with Thermopolis getting the No. 4 seed and Lovell finishing out.

Class 1A nine-man East
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Pine Bluffs at Southeast; Wright at Lusk.
Lingle: In. No. 1 seed.
Pine Bluffs: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss and Wright victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with loss and Lusk victory.
Lusk: In. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Southeast victory. No. 3 seed with Pine Bluffs victory, win or lose. No. 4 seed with loss and Southeast victory.
Southeast: In. No. 2 seed with victory and Wright victory. Tie for 2-3-4 seeds (score differential to break) with victory and Lusk victory. No. 4 seed with loss.
Guernsey, Saratoga, Wright: Out.
Moorcroft: Ineligible.
In the scenario where Lusk, Pine Bluffs and Southeast tie for the 2-3-4 seeds, score differential will be used to break the tie. Right now, differentials are Pine Bluffs +7, Southeast -2, Lusk -5. In this scenario, Southeast would need to beat Pine Bluffs by five points or more to earn the No. 2 seed, with Pine Bluffs then earning the No. 3 seed by head-to-head victory against Lusk, which would be No. 4. If Southeast wins by four points or fewer, Pine Bluffs would be No. 2 by differential, and Lusk would be 3 by virtue of head-to-head victory over Southeast, and the Cyclones would be 4.
Note: Saratoga could tie both Lusk and Southeast in the right scenarios, but since the Panthers lose tiebreakers to both teams, Saratoga can’t qualify for the playoffs.

Class 1A nine-man West
Week 8 games affecting playoff seeding: Big Piney at Riverside.
Wind River: In. No. 1 seed.
Big Piney, Riverside: In. No. 2 seed with victory. No. 3 seed with loss.
Rocky Mountain: In. No. 4 seed.
Greybull, Shoshoni: Out.
Wyoming Indian: Ineligible.
Note: Wind River holds tiebreakers over both Big Piney and Riverside, while Rocky Mountain loses tiebreakers to both of those teams.

Class 1A six-man North
Burlington: In. No. 1 seed.
Kaycee: In. No. 2 seed.
Meeteetse: In. No. 3 seed.
Hulett: In. No. 4 seed.
Midwest, Ten Sleep: Out.

Class 1A six-man South
Snake River: In. No. 1 seed.
Encampment: In. No. 2 seed.
Dubois: In. No. 3 seed.
Farson: In. No. 4 seed.
Casper Christian, Hanna: Out.

First-round games we already know: Kelly Walsh at Sheridan in 4A; Rocky Mountain at Lingle in 1A nine-man.

Six-man pairings:
(4S) Farson at (1N) Burlington
(3N) Meeteetse at (2S) Encampment
(4N) Hulett at (1S) Snake River
(3S) Dubois at (2N) Kaycee

I think that covers all the possible scenarios. If something looks weird or wrong, let me know and I will update.

–patrick