Four questions to answer
What’s the biggest change to 1A nine-man this year? The lack of deep, experienced and talented senior classes. Last year, several teams were legitimate state championship threats thanks to senior classes just like that; place any one of those teams into the mix this year and they would be the automatic favorites this year. However, graduation decimated almost all of those programs. Look at it this way: Last year, 20 all-state players returned across the classification. This year, between transfers and attrition, it’s slated to be as few as four all-staters coming back.
Who’s survived the purge? Big Piney and Wind River. The Punchers were junior-heavy last year but kept up with the West Conference’s best, training that will set them up well for 2023. Meanwhile, Wind River graduated a ton but has the benefit of back-to-back big classes and will be a senior-heavy team, a rarity in 1A nine-man this season.
How different will the East Conference look this year? Quite a bit. Three East Conference programs — Wright, Saratoga and Guernsey — will have new coaches. All three teams missed the playoffs last year, but Todd Weber in Saratoga, Neal Hughes in Guernsey and Larry Yeradi in Wright, who takes back the head coaching duties after a year away, will be in positions to change the trajectories of those programs.
What about Pine Bluffs? Oh yeah. I’m not sure how we’ve made it this far without talking about the literal defending champions of the classification. The Hornets won’t be overrun with talent this year but have a system and a set of expectations in place. And they haven’t lost a conference game in two years. Cliche as it is, until someone proves they can beat Pine Bluffs, the Hornets are the team everyone else has to chase.
Preseason class MVP
Cooper Frederick, Wind River. The only two-time all-state selection playing this season at any level above six-man in the state, Frederick has proven his worth time and again to the Cougars’ fortunes. When he does well, so do the Cougars; witness his 1,919 rushing yards in Wind River’s 7-3 season in 2022. A year older, Frederick will be a handful to stop, especially for nine-man’s defenses this year that lack the experience of last year’s units.
Preseason class breakout player
Brenner Moore, Rocky Mountain. Moore was just about the only underclassmen who cracked the Grizzlies’ lineup last year. He put up solid numbers — 26 tackles, a couple pass deflections, 113 receiving yards — but will be much more of a leader on both sides of the ball for a Grizzly team that may need a minute to find itself.
Other players to watch
Louden Bremer, Lingle. As a sophomore, Bremer had a huge influence on the Doggers, leading them in receiving (25 catches for 482 yards) and tackles (71). As a junior, Bremer will play just as critical of a role as the Doggers look for their first home playoff game since 2015.
Karsyn Gurr and Ruben Stoutenberg, Big Piney. Two of Big Piney’s biggest offensive weapons are also threats elsewhere. Stoutenberg carried for 327 yards and had 184 receiving yards, but was also valuable on defense where he led the Punchers with 72 tackles. Gurr led Big Piney in receiving with 363 yards and six TDs but was also the West Conference’s special teams player of the year in 2022 thanks to his kick return abilities.
Shawn Shmidl, Pine Bluffs. Maybe this statistic, more than any, represents the value Shmidl, a junior, brings to the defending state champs: Only one player who had more than 20 tackles last year is expected back for the Hornets in 2023. Shmidl had 54. A cornerstone around which a young defense can build, Shmidl will have to transform from role player to leader to keep the Hornets’ momentum rolling.
Ty Strohschein, Riverside. The Rebels are a significantly better team with Strohschein in the lineup. His experience running the ball (684 yards, six TDs last year) and, maybe even more so, on defense (77.5 tackles, more than double any other returner for Riverside) will be key in a suddenly wide-open West Conference championship and playoff race.
Four key games
Big Piney at Wind River, Sept. 21. Big Piney has the challenge of playing the West Conference’s other three playoff qualifiers from 2022 — Rocky Mountain, Wind River and Shoshoni — all on the road this year. This one against the Cougars in Pavillion could be the biggest test for the Punchers, who play those three games in a span of five weeks to start conference play.
Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain, Sept. 23. After the past two seasons, how could we not include this one? Even though both teams will bring inexperienced rosters to the field in 2023, the advantage is that so does pretty much everyone else. And the stakes could be just as high as usual if these program’s young players have developed quickly.
Southeast at Lingle, Oct. 6. Southeast’s 36-35 victory last season against its longtime Goshen County rival was the margin by which second and third places were decided in the East Conference. With both teams in the championship discussion this fall, the stakes this year could be even higher than just a home playoff game.
Pine Bluffs at Southeast, Oct. 20. The regular-season finale for both teams will likely have some high stakes, just as it did in 2022. Chances are good, though, that the Cyclones will be much more competitive than they were last year, a game that ended 63-6 in the Hornets’ favor on their march toward an undefeated state championship.
Predicted order of finish
East Conference: Pine Bluffs; Southeast; Lingle; Saratoga; Lusk; Wright; Moorcroft; Guernsey.
West Conference: Big Piney; Wind River; Shoshoni; Riverside; Rocky Mountain; Greybull; Wyoming Indian; St. Stephens.
Preseason top five: 1. Pine Bluffs; 2. Big Piney; 3. Wind River; 4. Southeast; 5. Lingle.
Way-too-early title game score prediction
Pine Bluffs 30, Big Piney 28. Right now, the Hornets are the team to take down, but the upsides of programs like the others in the top five are ignored only by the foolhardy. The football may not be as strong as last year, but the race might be even more exciting because of that.
Who do you see taking home the title in a depleted, but incredibly competitive, classification this year? Leave a comment, or drop a line on Twitter or Facebook.
Next Thursday: Class 2A preview.
–patrick