Four questions to answer

Powell, right? Yep. Powell is quite clearly the 3A favorite this year. With six of their nine all-state players coming back, and riding the momentum of back-to-back state championships and a 15-game winning streak, the Panthers are the team to catch.

So who can catch Powell? Given the right circumstances, a number of teams have the potential to topple the Panthers off their championship perch. Cody returns all four of its all-state selections; Star Valley returns a pair of all-staters and nearly knocked off Powell in last year’s title game; Green River, Douglas and Buffalo are perennial contenders and should compete again this fall. The path from Powell to Laramie is well-worn, but it’s not free of sinkholes just yet….

What affect will coaching turnover have in 3A? Quite a bit, actually. New coaches in Cody (Matt McFadden) and Riverton (Pat Patterson) will affect their conferences dramatically — McFadden and Cody in how it handles higher expectations and a load of talent, Patterson and Riverton in how it handles the target that comes with winning a conference title and the fallout of a shocking first-round playoff loss.

Will the East Conference actually win a playoff game this year? Maybe not. The power in 3A this year is quite clearly in the West. Of the 13 returning all-state selections, 12 are in the West Conference. Unless the East develops young talent quickly this season, a second consecutive first-round sweep for West Conference teams is a distinct possibility.

Four players to watch

Tony Lujan, Garrett Lynch and Brendan Phister, Powell. Really, I could make all four “players to watch” come from Powell, but out of fairness to the other schools, I’ll group these three together. And what a group it is — Lujan, Lynch and Phister are all already two-time first-team all-state choices, and it’s their leadership that could help lead Powell to a third consecutive state title.

Logan Barker, Douglas. The senior was the East Conference’s defensive player of the year last year, and he’s the only returning East Conference player who was an all-state selection last year. He was also Douglas’ leading rusher last season with 1,008 yards.

Carter Myers, Cody. Myers is the Broncs’ Mr. Everything. As a sophomore, he led Cody in assisted tackles but showed his diversity by notching a fumble recovery, an interception AND a blocked kick on defense, as well. Oh, and he was the team’s No. 2 rusher, No. 3 receiver, No. 2 scorer and top kicker.

Trace Haderlie, Star Valley. Haderlie is 3A’s top returning quarterback; the all-state choice threw for a 3A-best 1,605 yards last season and tossed 16 touchdowns. As the Braves continue to emphasize the passing game, Haderlie’s abilities will help key Star Valley’s success in 2013.

Four key games

Douglas at Buffalo, Sept. 27. Although Riverton is the defending East Conference champion, the Bearcats and Bison have long been the East’s top programs. And a victory in the conference opener is essential to getting a leg up in the race for the conference championship.

Powell at Star Valley, Oct. 4. The angle here is simple: Powell has won the 3A state championship two years in a row, beat Star Valley in last year’s title game and comes into the season with the state’s longest active winning streak. The catch? Powell hasn’t won in Afton since 1999. This game may be Powell’s biggest hurdle to a third consecutive trip to Laramie.

Cody at Powell, Oct. 18. Ten — count ’em, 10 — returning all-state players are slated to play in this game, four for Cody and six for Powell. That alone should make this game worth the price of admission, but the heated nature of one of the state’s oldest rivalries helps make the game a must-see.

Riverton at Lander, Oct. 24. In 2011, Lander was the East’s “it” team in the regular season, but after a 7-1 regular season, the Tigers lost in the quarterfinals. In 2012, Riverton was dubbed “it” after winning the conference championship, but the Wolverines, too, didn’t win a game in the playoffs. Success for the Fremont County schools the postseason in 2013 may depend on ending the regular season the right way here.

Predicted order of finish

East: Douglas, Buffalo, Riverton, Lander, Torrington, Rawlins. West: Powell, Star Valley, Cody, Green River, Jackson, Worland.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

If you believe the hype, the only question is who Powell will beat in the title game. I’ll believe it. Powell 24, Star Valley 14.

Trivia

Now that Rawlins’ losing streak is over, which Wyoming team has the longest active losing streak, entering 2013?

Classification’s 2013 theme song

Powell, Powell, Powell… right? Who do you think has the best chance of knocking the Panthers off their title perch? Can anyone end the winning streak? Comment below and let me know!

Next Thursday: Class 4A.

–patrick

Four questions to answer

Can an East Conference team finally win in Laramie? If so, this year might be the year. The last four Class 2A titles have all been won by current West Conference teams (although, admittedly, Thermopolis was in the East Conference when it won titles in 2009 and 2010). And two West Conference teams, Lovell and Lyman, have played each other for the past two 2A titles. However, the East Conference has more depth than it has the past couple years, and the bulk of the West Conference’s best players have moved on thanks to graduation.

So who’s the favorite in 2A this year? That’s anyone’s guess. Last year’s four semifinalists — Lovell, Lyman, Newcastle and Big Horn — all lost significant numbers due to graduation. The lack of a clear-cut favorite in 2A should make it an interesting year.

No, really. Who’s the favorite? I’m serious, dude. I don’t know. And nobody else seems to know either. In a preseason survey of 2A coaches, no fewer than 10 schools were named as genuine potential heirs to the throne. Even the coaches aren’t sure how the season will play out. When that’s the case, often it’s offseason training that makes the difference. The title in November may come down to work put in during June.

What player’s departure will most affect his former team? The one not caused by graduation. Glenrock’s Jordan Millay, who led the Herders in rushing as a sophomore last year and totaled almost 1,700 yards in his freshman and sophomore years, has been forced out of the sport due to chronic injuries. While Millay should be commended for thinking of his future, his unexpected loss leaves a big hole in the Herder backfield.

Four players to watch

Merritt Crabtree, Newcastle. Crabtree was the East Conference defensive player of the year last year, and with good reason. The Dogies ranked second in 2A in yards allowed per game (216.6) and Crabtree finished third in 2A in defensive points per game (19.9). His 17 tackles for loss were the best in 2A, and he helped force five turnovers (three fumble recoveries, two interceptions).

Connor McCafferty, Big Horn. Conversely, McCafferty was the East’s offensive player of the year a year ago. Few quarterbacks in the state were as efficient as McCafferty, who completed 65 percent of his passes and had a 25-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And he didn’t dink and dunk his way to that: his yards-per-completion average of 13.0 ypc was best in the state last year, making his efficiency even more impressive.

Austin Houskeeper, Mountain View. Houskeeper had a huge season as a sophomore, finishing second in Class 2A in both passing yards per game (161.0) and defensive points per game (20.1). That kind of versatility will be a big boon to an improved Buffalos squad that returns three all-state selections.

Critter Ruwart, Wheatland. Is it the year of the quarterback in 2A? Possibly, especially with McCafferty, Houskeeper and Ruwart — the top three passers in 2A a year ago — back for more. Ruwart had more completions (100) and threw for more yards (1,566) than anyone in 2A last year, and his presence will help keep the Bulldogs in the hunt in a competitive East Conference.

Four key games

Big Horn at Newcastle, Sept. 13. This Week 2 game has all the preseason indications of being a big one in the East — much like it was last year, when the two teams met in the final week of the regular season, both undefeated. If nothing else, this game will help us figure out how much parity exists in the East this year.

Mountain View at Greybull, Sept. 13. Both Buffs squads came up again and again in the coaches’ lists of preseason favorites. The West Conference opener between the two programs might be the game that pushes one ahead of the other.

Lyman at Lovell, Sept. 20. Lyman beat Lovell in last year’s 2A title game; Lovell beat Lyman in the 2011 2A title game. And in both cases, the team that won the regular-season game won the rematch in Laramie.

Glenrock at Wheatland, Sept. 27. If the Herders or Bulldogs want to challenge for the conference championship, they have to win this game in Week 4. For Glenrock, this game starts a critical three-week stretch in which the Herders face Wheatland, Big Horn and Newcastle in consecutive weeks.

Predicted order of finish

East: Big Horn, Burns, Glenrock, Wheatland, Newcastle, Wright, Moorcroft, Tongue River. West: Mountain View, Lovell, Greybull, Lyman, Pinedale, Thermopolis, Kemmerer, Big Piney.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

This is ridiculous. No fewer than 10 teams are legit threats to make it to Laramie. But put a gun to my head and I’ll say: Mountain View 12, Big Horn 8.

Trivia

Lyman coach Dale Anderson won the state championship in his first year with the Eagles. Before Anderson, who was the last Wyoming coach to win a state championship in his first year as head coach at that school? (This is a trick question — it has two answers.)

Classification’s 2013 theme song

I think Class 2A has the potential to be the most even, exciting, parity-filled classification of the year. How about you? Who do you think will emerge from this group of contenders to be the favorite? Post your thoughts below.

Next Thursday: Class 3A.

–patrick

Four questions to answer

Does having fewer teams in 1A make it easier to qualify for the playoffs this year? Mathematically, yes, but realistically, no. With three teams gone to six-man football (Wyoming Indian, Saratoga and Normative Services) and Upton and Sundance still involved in their co-op agreement, only 11 schools will comprise the 1A 11-man division this fall, a total that’s down from 16 as recently as 2011. But the top tier of teams remains in the classification, and perennial powers Southeast, Lusk and Cokeville haven’t gone anywhere….

Can anyone win this year’s 1A title other than Southeast, Lusk or Cokeville? In short, no. The three powerhouse programs have a combined 11 all-state selections back this fall; the other eight programs in the classification have just seven returning all-staters combined. And of all the 1A 11-man schools, only these three have reached Laramie the past three years.

So of those three schools, who’s the favorite to win it all? That’s the million-dollar question this year. Cokeville and Lusk have four returning all-state selections apiece, while defending champ Southeast has three. All three teams are loaded for title runs, but none of the three is the clear-cut favorite entering the season.

Of the remaining eight teams, which one has the best chance to spring a playoff upset on one of the favorites? Probably Upton-Sundance. The Patriots, in the second year of their co-op, return one of the most explosive players in the classification in junior running back Jett Materi. The Patriots played exceptionally better the second half of 2012 than in the first half, and now that the kinks have been worked out of the co-op situation, the U-S squad has the potential to be one of the spoilers in 1A this fall.

Four players to watch

Wyatt Somsen and Colton Stees, Southeast. Yes, I’m cheating a bit by taking two players with one choice. But Somsen was the East Conference’s offensive player of the year last year (he ran for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns) and Stees, in addition to opening a lot of holes for Somsen on the offensive line, was the conference’s defensive player of the year two years ago. And they were both all-state choices last year. Together, they give the Cyclones an offense-defense tandem few, if any, teams in 1A can match.

Cody Nate and Brock Teichert, Cokeville. Again, two players go together with one choice, but to bring up one and not the other is a disservice to the way Cokeville plays football. Nate and Teichert were equally valuable pieces of the Panther lines in 2012. On offense, they paced a strong rushing game, and on defense, they finished third and fourth on the team in total defensive points. Nate is already a two-time all-state selection, while Teichert earned his first all-state nod last year.

Tucker McKim, Riverside. As a sophomore last year, McKim led 1A 11-man in catches (46) and receiving yards (670). One of four returning players who were named all-state as sophomores, McKim will need a similar season in 2013 for Riverside to stay competitive in the West.

Matthew VandeBossche, Lusk. VandeBossche led the Tigers in all-purpose offense, scoring and punting last year and also played a key role on the Tigers’ defense. One of just four juniors named to the Casper Star-Tribune’s Super 25 first team a year ago, VandeBossche’s play will be critical in the Tigers’ attempt to return to Laramie.

Four key games

Southeast at Cokeville, Sept. 13. Two of them most consistent, most successful 1A 11-man programs over the last two decades are meeting for the first time in the regular season. This might be the biggest nonconference game in the state this year, regardless of classification. Just don’t expect either coach to play every card in the deck in the regular season — not with a potential rematch awaiting in the postseason.

Shoshoni at Burlington and Rocky Mountain at Riverside, Sept. 20. Will any teams step up to Cokeville’s challenge in the West Conference this year? We’ll find out in Week 3. The Wranglers, Huskies, Grizzlies and Rebels all want to be that team to challenge the Panthers, but to do so, they have to win competitive conference openers against a team that wants to do exactly what they’re trying to do.

Upton-Sundance at Lusk, Oct. 11. The Patriots almost pulled off the upset against the Tigers before falling in last year’s regular-season finale. In the co-op’s second year, the Patriots could be even more dangerous, even (and maybe especially) to a top-tier 1A team like Lusk.

Lusk at Southeast, Oct. 18. This is the most important East Conference game year in and year out. With a combined seven all-state choices back this fall (four for Lusk, three for Southeast), this year looks no different. Oh, and the Tigers have to be eager for a bit of revenge for what the Cyclones did to them in Laramie last November….

Predicted order of finish

East: Southeast, Lusk, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Pine Bluffs. West: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Shoshoni, Burlington, Wind River.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

Some 1A math for you: Big 3, minus 1, plus “The War,” equals a guess. Southeast 21, Cokeville 20.

Trivia

Who has more victories as a Wyoming high school head football coach — Cokeville’s Todd Dayton or the other 10 coaches in Class 1A 11-man combined?

Classification’s 2013 theme song

How many 1s and 11s can you handle? After all, there are 11 1A 11-man teams this year… which one will end up No. 1? Comment below with some thoughts and we’ll figure out November in August together.

Next Thursday: Class 2A.

–patrick

Four questions to answer

Will the new six-man teams be competitive in their first year? At least one will be in the title hunt right away, but with four new teams entering six-man this year — Wyoming Indian, Normative Services and Saratoga moving down from 11-man and St. Stephens coming up from the junior-varsity level — anything is possible. Saratoga, an 11-man playoff qualifier just two years ago, has the best chance of being immediately competitive. Meanwhile, NSI and Wyoming Indian are a combined 5-57 the past four years and can only benefit from the switch.

Even so, is Dubois still the favorite? Yep. The Rams won their first state football championship last year and even though they lost five all-staters, main offensive weapon Sterling Baker and fellow all-state pick Austin Tharp will return to keep the Rams in the upper echelon of six-man.

Whose turn is it for a breakthrough year? Midwest. The Oilers have been gearing for 2013 for a while now, and with both of the squad’s all-state players (Cam Ray and Tucker Even) back from last year, can you blame them? Midwest is the early favorite in a restructured East Conference and is a legitimate threat to make it back to a state championship game for the first time since winning the nine-man title in 1991.

How have you gotten this far without mentioning Snake River? Good question. The Rattlers have been participants in the past three state title games, winning it all in 2010 and 2011. But the perennial pacesetters in six-man lost 10 seniors and all their starters to graduation and now face a conference schedule that includes state champ Dubois, up-and-comer Meeteetse and 11-man newcomer Wyoming Indian. The Rattlers will likely still be one of six-man’s better teams, but unlike the last few years, the Rattlers will have to earn that designation rather than have it given to them.

Four players to watch

Sterling Baker, Dubois. The North Conference’s offensive player of the year last year, Baker ran for 1,933 yards and 34 touchdowns in leading the Rams to the state championship. He also threw most of the Rams’ passes, throwing for 569 yards and 12 scores, and was second on the team in defensive points. He’ll again be the catalyst for the Rams if they hope to make it back to Laramie to defend their title.

Cam Ray, Midwest. One of two all-state choices back for the Oilers this fall, Ray led the Oilers in most major statistical categories, piling up 1,983 yards of all-purpose offense, scoring 114 points and notching more than 20 defensive points per game. The diminutive quarterback will be a big piece of Midwest’s success in 2013.

Seth Bennett, Meeteetse. Bennett missed the bulk of his sophomore season due to injury, but came back with a vengeance as a junior. He led Class 1A six-man in rushing yards (1,951), rushing touchdowns (39), scoring (261 total points) and all-purpose offense (3,485 total yards), and was fifth in 1A in defensive points. And he’s back.

Story Penning, Hulett. One of the most athletic football players in the state, Penning is the charge that makes the Red Devils’ offense go. An all-state choice last year, Penning ran for 1,420 yards — 12.5 yards per attempt — and 17 touchdowns; more importantly, he was second in the state with 27 defensive points per game.

Four key games

Saratoga at Midwest, Sept. 20. Perhaps the most intriguing game on the six-man calendar, this game will answer numerous questions: Is this really Midwest’s breakthrough year? How will Saratoga match up in six-man conference play? And can either team mount a serious challenge to the West Conference’s top teams in the playoffs?

Hulett at Kaycee, Sept. 28. No one can overlook the Red Devils this fall. Poised for a breakthrough year in six-man, Hulett will need this victory over the perennial contenders from Kaycee to establish itself as a serious contender for the state title.

Dubois at Snake River, Oct. 19. Snake River beat Dubois for the 2011 six-man title; Dubois beat Snake River for the 2012 six-man title. This one is big.

Dubois at Wyoming Indian, Oct. 25. Every game the Chiefs play this fall will be interesting, as the school with just one playoff berth in program history to its credit tries to reverse its fortunes in what may be its only playoff-eligible year of six-man. The regular-season finale could be the ramp-up to a memorable playoff run, or it could be the end of a busted experiment. For long-suffering Chiefs football fans, we can hope for the former.

Predicted order of finish

East: Midwest, Guernsey, Saratoga, Hulett, Kaycee, Hanna, NSI. West: Dubois, Meeteetse, Snake River, Wyoming Indian, Farson, St. Stephens, Ten Sleep.

Way-too-early title-game score prediction

I can’t pick the Oilers without being accused of being a homer. So I’ll vote my head and not my heart. Dubois 60, Midwest 56.

Trivia

Normative Services enters 2013 with an unfortunate streak in tow — the Wolves haven’t beaten a varsity opponent on the road in 21 consecutive tries. The question: Who was the last varsity team to lose to NSI away from Sheridan?

Classification’s 2013 theme song

So who’s your pick to win it all in six-man this year? The changes, plus the talent turnover, will make this one of the most intriguing classifications this season. Post some thoughts below and let’s start discussing the season!

Next Thursday: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick

We close out a week’s worth of picks with the big-school classification today. Please spend a second reading a brief introduction about how these picks were made.

THE PICKS
Natrona; Gillette; Cheyenne East; Sheridan; Kelly Walsh; Cheyenne Central; Rock Springs; Evanston; Cheyenne South; Laramie.

THE TEAMS
Natrona

Pick: First in 4A
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Favorites in 4A? Gillette and Natrona. Gillette has to go to Casper to play the Mustangs this year. And the Mustangs hardly ever lose at home.

Gillette
Pick: Second in 4A
Confidence Index: 80 percent
My gut says: The Camels won’t make it easy on anyone this year. That trip to Casper, though, will be a toughie.

Cheyenne East
Pick: Third in 4A
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: The T-Birds have the talent to beat everyone they face. Except Gillette and Natrona. Those two games will require a couple lucky bounces. Could happen, though.

Sheridan
Pick: Fourth in 4A
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: Sheridan earns the No. 4 spot by default. After the past few years, the Broncs have earned that nod. Of course, they have to re-earn it on the field this year.

Kelly Walsh
Pick: Fifth in 4A
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: Basically every coach in 4A said Kelly Walsh will be improved from last year. Whether that’s enough to get the Trojans into the top four or not is debatable. Hence my low confidence.

Cheyenne Central
Pick: Sixth in 4A
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: The Indians have consistently been a .500 team the past few years. They’ll be competitive again this year, but upper-echelon worthy? Not yet.

Rock Springs
Pick: Seventh in 4A
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Spots 7-10 in 4A are as big a mess as last year. The Tigers earn this spot because I think they’ve got enough player consistency in their program to top the other three.

Evanston
Pick: Eighth in 4A
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I have had a really tough time getting a read on the Red Devils this year. So did the 4A coaches I talked to. The summary? The Red Devils should be playoff contenders. I think.

Cheyenne South
Pick: Ninth in 4A
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: I want to see that losing streak end. Everyone does — unless you’re lined up on the opposite side from the Bison. Unfortunately for South, that means they’ll get the best out of everyone they face.

Laramie
Pick: Tenth in 4A
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: Laramie could – and maybe should – be put higher than this. I hope a new coaching staff can give some stability and strength to the program, but it may take years to see a consistent winner come from the Gem City.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Natrona over Evanston, Gillette over Rock Springs, Cheyenne East over Cheyenne Central, Sheridan over Kelly Walsh; semifinals, Natrona over Sheridan, Gillette over Cheyenne East; championship, Natrona over Gillette.

Ho-hum, another Gillette-Natrona title game. Right? Or am I missing something in looking at Wyoming’s big-school classification?

–patrick

The shaking of my confidence continues today with Class 3A, the fourth of a five-part picks marathon. Before you read the picks below, take a minute to read a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Douglas, Buffalo, Riverton, Lander, Torrington, Rawlins. West: Powell, Star Valley, Cody, Green River, Jackson, Worland.

THE TEAMS
Douglas

Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: The East side is down a bit this year, and a solid Bearcats squad will benefit from that.

Buffalo
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I’m still trying to decide if Buffalo’s slide to a losing record last year was an aberration or the start of a trend. I’m thinking aberration.

Riverton
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: After last year’s run to the conference title, the Wolverines lost a lot to graduation. Such losses almost always precipitate a drop in the standings. Oh, and a new system to learn….

Lander
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: The Tigers still have steps to make to be considered a true conference title contender. But they’re not a bad team by any stretch.

Torrington
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the top four and bottom two are pretty clear in the East. However, that means the Trailblazers are just an upset away from the playoffs….

Rawlins
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: You’ll notice that my confidence levels for Torrington and Rawlins are exactly the same. That’s because the loser of that Torrington-Rawlins game in Week 5 will have a heck of a time escaping the basement.

Powell
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This is one of the easiest picks of the season. The two-time defending champs have a ton of talent coming back. And everyone knows it.

Star Valley
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The West will be a challenging conference this year. I’m really curious to see how the Braves respond after some success last year.

Cody
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Cody’s best chance at a state title may be a year away. That doesn’t mean they can’t be contenders right now, though.

Green River
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: I’m a bit scared to have the Wolves this low, but in a stacked conference, this is all the higher they can go in the preseason.

Jackson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Unfortunately for the Broncs (and Worland), I think the dividing line between playoff and non-playoff teams in the West this year is pretty clear.

Worland
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: I feel like everyone’s overlooking Worland. Including me.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Douglas over Green River, Cody over Buffalo, Star Valley over Riverton, Powell over Lander; semifinals, Star Valley over Douglas, Powell over Cody; championship, Powell over Star Valley.

Class 3A seems pretty straightforward this year: Everyone’s chasing Powell, and the West is stronger than the East. But is it really that simple? Is anything in life ever what it seems?

Tomorrow: Class 4A.

–patrick

The five-part pick-a-thon for Wyoming high school football continues today with Class 2A. Before you dive in, see a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Big Horn, Burns, Glenrock, Wheatland, Newcastle, Wright, Moorcroft, Tongue River. West: Mountain View, Lovell, Greybull, Lyman, Pinedale, Thermopolis, Kemmerer, Big Piney.

THE TEAMS
Big Horn

Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: In talking to the coaches in the East this summer, one thing is clear: No one knows who the favorite is. Big Horn gets the nod out of respect for what it did a year ago.

Burns
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the East, Burns has the most returning. And they’ve got something to prove after a couple years of lackluster season finishes.

Glenrock
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I think Glenrock is a playoff team this year. That means they could finish anywhere from first to fourth… and anywhere in between.

Wheatland
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: It’s been hard for me to get a read on the Bulldogs. I think they’ve got the talent to win the whole thing. I think they have to prove it to both themselves and their opponents before they can be legit contenders, though.

Newcastle
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: This was the hardest pick of them all. Newcastle should be really good this year. In a jumbled, unpredictable East, though, they could finish on the outside looking in. But, obviously, I’m not confident about that…

Wright
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: Of the six teams with legit chances to make a run at the East Conference title this year, the Panthers were the one most often labeled with the “potential” tag. The task is turning potential into results.

Moorcroft
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 80 percent
My gut says: Moorcroft will be better. The problem is most everyone else in the East is, too.

Tongue River
Pick: Eighth in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: The rebuilding continues in Dayton. Rome wasn’t built in a day; neither will be the Eagles.

Mountain View
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Mountain View might be a year away from its best season. They’re still good enough to win the West this year, though.

Lovell
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: The Bulldogs lost a lot from last year’s squad, so having them this high is a bit scary to me. They earned a lot of respect from other coaches in the conference, though, even despite that.

Greybull
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: For a team that finished 3-6, this might seem high, but almost every coach in the West said Greybull has the goods to go far this year.

Lyman
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: Lyman earned more respect than this last year, but the loss of a tremendous senior class puts the Eagles here for now. I can’t tell whether they’re ready for another deep playoff run or rebuilding after losing so much.

Pinedale
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The Wranglers are still middle-of-the-road right now: good enough to demand respect, but not good enough (yet) to be feared.

Thermopolis
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: A coaching change and the loss of a decently sized senior class has me thinking the worst for the Bobcats this fall. I put them here because I think they’ve got enough talent to prove me wrong. I think.

Kemmerer
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence Index: 15 percent
My gut says: A Shawn Rogers-coached team should never be picked this low. And yet, here, I did it. I’m dumb.

Big Piney
Pick: Eighth in West
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Until the Punchers pick up a conference victory, I have to default to picking them here. That said, this is a program that will improve dramatically this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish outside the cellar.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Big Horn over Lyman, Burns over Greybull, Lovell over Glenrock, Mountain View over Wheatland; semifinals, Big Horn over Lovell, Mountain View over Burns; championship, Mountain View over Big Horn.

My confidence index in that championship game actually happening? Like 2 percent. This classification is by far the least predictable of any class this year. Talking to the coaches in the classification only further proved that.

Tomorrow: Class 3A.

–patrick

Our look at predictions for each classification of Wyoming high school football turns today to Class 1A 11-man. See a brief introduction to how these picks are made.

THE PICKS
East: Southeast, Lusk, Upton-Sundance, Lingle, Pine Bluffs. West: Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Shoshoni, Burlington, Wind River.

THE TEAMS
Southeast

Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: Either Lusk or Southeast will win the East this year. The game between the two of them is in Yoder. Hence me picking the Cyclones.

Lusk
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: The Tigers won’t finish any lower than second. They’ll have to beat Southeast in  Yoder, though, to earn the top seed – a tough task.

Upton-Sundance
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This may be the easiest pick of the season. The Patriots are solid and deep, but they probably don’t have enough to keep up with Southeast or Lusk. Yet.

Lingle
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: The Doggers are consistently a tough team to beat. All it will take for them to move up is for one team to overlook them.

Pine Bluffs
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: I feel like the Hornets deserve respect this fall, but every time I look at the conference, they end up here. Sorry, Pine.

Cokeville
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 100 percent
My gut says: When the stampede is coming, you get the heck out of the way.

Rocky Mountain
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: Places 2-6 in the West are a mess. But I think the Grizzlies have the slightest of edges to take that second spot and host in the first round.

Riverside
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’ve got the Rebels awfully high this season, especially considering that the squad has had turnover in both the playing and coaching ranks. But I like the talent up in Basin.

Shoshoni
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 10 percent
My gut says: Shoshoni should be higher than this. Like I said, places 2-6 are a mess. I wish I could just say “tie” and move on. But I can’t, because you expect more of me than that. So I put Shoshoni here, knowing they’ll probably not finish here.

Burlington
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Of all the teams in the West, Burlington may have lost the most from last year. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a playoff-caliber team, though.

Wind River
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I had to put someone last. The Cougars could just as easily finish second in the conference as they could sixth. It’s that kind of year in the West. Lots of fun = low predictability.

PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Southeast over Shoshoni, Lusk over Riverside, Rocky Mountain over Upton-Sundance, Cokeville over Lingle. Semifinals, Southeast over Rocky Mountain, Cokeville over Lusk. Championship, Southeast over Cokeville.

The big three still reign supreme in Class 1A 11-man this year, and it will be interesting to see (1) whether Southeast, Lusk or Cokeville wins the state title and (2) if any of the other eight teams in the class can even come close to knocking off one of those three.

Tomorrow: Class 2A.

–patrick

In preparation for the second annual Wyoming Sports Preview Guide magazine, I’ve spent the last two months talking to football coaches across the state. So far, I’ve talked to 62 of the 64 coaches (NSI doesn’t have a coach yet, and for one school I talked to an assistant coach rather than the head coach).

A standard question I asked every coach was to pick the favorite in their conference. In asking that question, something became clear — sometimes, the coaches are just as uncertain about who should be the favorites as the guys asking the question.

Just like in previous years, I’m posting my predictions for the standings for each classification and conference. But new this year is the “Confidence Index,” a number that demonstrates my faith that I’ve picked that team’s placing correctly. The “Confidence Index” has no basis in math; it’s more an instinctual feeling than anything.

As we progress, you’ll notice some classifications and conferences have a higher overall confidence than others. That’s not a mistake. Some classes are easier to pick than others — both for me and for the coaches.

The picks will start today with the classification with the smallest schools, Class 1A six-man:

THE PICKS
East: Midwest, Guernsey, Saratoga, Hulett, Kaycee, Hanna, NSI. West: Dubois, Meeteetse, Snake River, Wyoming Indian, Farson, St. Stephens, Ten Sleep.

THE TEAMS
Midwest
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 85 percent
My gut says: Almost every coach in six-man says this is the Oilers’ year to break through. I agree.

Guernsey
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Guernsey will challenge the best teams in six-man this year. To finish this high, though, they’ll have to win a bevy of tough games.

Saratoga
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The transition from 11-man to six-man will be good for the Panthers, and I’m all but certain they’ll make the playoffs. But the steep learning curve may keep them from hosting in the first round.

Hulett
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 70 percent
My gut says: Hulett is a genuine middle-of-the-pack team. The game against Kaycee in Week 4 may be for a playoff spot.

Kaycee
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 45 percent
My gut says: I think I have Kaycee too low. But I also think the four teams I have ahead of them are better teams – this year. One upset will be all Kaycee needs to make the postseason.

Hanna
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 60 percent
My gut says: Hanna won’t be an easy team to beat. However, a coaching change plus a lack of depth probably means this won’t be the Miners’ year to make a deep playoff run.

NSI
Pick: Seventh in East
Confidence Index: 30 percent
My gut says: I’m so scared to put the Wolves here. Six-man could be the program’s niche. As it stands, though, the lack of certainty about the program’s makeup from year to year forces me to have them here.

Dubois
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: Just like Midwest in the East, Dubois in the West was basically a unanimous No. 1 choice from the coaches. I trust them.

Meeteetse
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: The Longhorns are poised to be one of six-man’s toughest teams to beat this fall. Even so, I’m not sure if it’s enough to oust Dubois as the favorite.

Snake River
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 25 percent
My gut says: I put the Rattlers here out of respect for the program and the tradition it has. What scares me is that the team lost basically all the experience it had to graduation, and the players coming back are untested.

Wyoming Indian
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 35 percent
My gut says: I think the Chiefs could finish even higher than this, but I hesitate to put them any higher because of (1) history and (2) the six-man learning curve. The Week 6 showdown vs. Snake looms huge.

Farson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the Pronghorns are steadily improving, and they have what it takes to notch a couple victories this year. But that’s it.

St. Stephens
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence: 65 percent
Why?: The Eagles are young and inexperienced. They’ll struggle in their first year of varsity play. But they’ve got enough going right to pull a surprise or two.

Ten Sleep
Pick: Seventh in West
Confidence: 50 percent
My gut says: The Pioneers only anticipate having seven players. They’re two injuries away from not even having a team. That won’t make them pushovers, though.

THE PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Midwest over Wyoming Indian, Guernsey over Snake River, Meeteetse over Saratoga, Dubois over Hulett; semifinals, Midwest over Meeteetse, Dubois over Guernsey; championship, Dubois over Midwest.

Six-man football has generally been upset-free in its short history, but the classification has more teams — and now more parity — than in previous years. That could make for a fun, unpredictable season.

Tomorrow: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick

For the first time, you can get your hands on a Wyoming high school football preview magazine that fully covers every team in the state.

Wyoming-football.com coupled with idahosports.com this summer to produce the Wyoming Sports Preview Guide. The magazine has full preview stories, schedules and key players for every team in the state, from Class 4A to six-man. It is the most complete preview you will find anywhere.

In addition to print distribution across the state (it’s free!), the magazine is also available online.

I would like to thank all the coaches statewide in Class 3A, Class 2A and Class 1A who I contacted over the summer for their help. Of the 52 coaches I contacted, 51 got back to me. (The Class 4A stories were done by others, so I can’t speak to that, but having seen the finished product, Class 4A fans have plenty to be excited about, too.)

As the first run at such a project in Wyoming, we did hit a couple snags, but I am ultimately pleased with the final product. If you see a stack in your town, pick up a copy of the Wyoming Sports Preview Guide, or check it out online right now. With your support, this magazine can become an annual project.

–patrick