Class 3A preview: Waiting for a Star (Valley) to fall

by ⋅ Leave a Comment

Prior to last season, Star Valley last won a state football championship in 1996. Yet, after 19 years without a title, the Braves will be the odds-on favorite to win a second consecutive Class 3A title — even after losing their coach and five all-state players.

However, the Braves’ quest for a repeat championship has plenty of roadblocks, including several in their own conference. After all, the West Conference has the 2015 champs (Star Valley), the 2014 champs (Cody), the 2015 runner-up (Green River) and, lest we forget, the team that won the conference championship a year ago (Jackson).

Meanwhile, a team from the East with a losing record a year ago might be the best team in the classification this year.

Yep, just another year in the crazy mixed-up world of Class 3A football.

Four questions to answer

Can Star Valley defend its title even after losing its head coach? Yes. Although Chris Howell is gone to Utah, his replacement, McKay Young, has been with the program for several years and has already proven himself a capable head coach, going 25-6 at Malad High in Idaho before coming to Afton. The Braves’ transition should be smooth.

Does that mean Star Valley is the favorite to win the 3A title? Again: Yes. The Braves return enough talent — fronted by returning all-state selections Kellen Hansen, Collin McGinley and McCabe Smith — to make another successful run at a 3A championship. But that also means the Braves will be everyone’s target all season long.

Who’s most likely to challenge the Braves for the throne? Douglas. Don’t let the Bearcats’ 3-6 record from 2015 deceive you. This team is loaded for 2016. The Bearcats return all three of their all-state choices and lost little to graduation. Watch out.

Anyone else in the mix? Definitely. Jackson, Torrington, Green River, Riverton and Buffalo have all been mentioned by 3A coaches as having what it takes to compete for a title. Green River in particular, thanks to its run to the title game with a junior-heavy squad in 2015, has the attention of 3A coaches across the state.

Four players to watch

Logan Harris, Torrington. In short, Harris is one of the state’s top linemen. A Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team pick as a junior, Harris was second for the Trailblazers in defensive points last year and notched a Class 3A-best 14 tackles for loss. He’s just as valuable on offense.

Blake Waite, Green River. Last year’s 3A West Defensive Player of the Year was the classification leader in defensive points last year. He was everywhere — 64 solo tackles and 69 assisted tackles proves that. As offenses turn their attention to him, his numbers may dip, but his presence will help open up opportunities for teammates.

T.J. Abraham, Powell. Not many players lead their teams in rushing, tackling, punt and kick returns and scoring in the same season. Usually, when they do, they’re seniors. Abraham did that for the Panthers as a junior. He’ll be the focus not only for the Panthers, but for every single one of the Panthers’ opponents this fall, too.

McCabe Smith, Star Valley. Smith, who was also a Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first-team selection last year, leads the Braves’ charge for a repeat title. A valuable piece of both the offensive and defensive lines, Smith led the Braves with 11 tackles for loss and four sacks a year ago.

Four key games

Star Valley at Douglas, Sept. 16. The most intriguing nonconference game pits the defending champs on the road against a team in Douglas that returns almost every key player from a year ago. The distance it has to travel, and the talent awaiting at the end of that trip, makes this game a double-edged sword for Star Valley.

Torrington at Riverton, Sept. 23. It would be easy to look at both the Trailblazers and the Wolverines and say they’re rebuilding. Far from it. Both have enough talent to compete for the East Conference title — and more — and the conference opener will be telling for both programs.

Jackson at Green River, Sept. 30. Jackson certainly hasn’t forgotten how last season ended. The Broncs will be fired up for this rematch against the Wolves in a game that may be key in deciding home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Green River at Star Valley, Oct. 7. The regular-season game between these two last season came down to the final play. The state championship game rematch wasn’t as thrilling. Even so, both teams will be on edge for this one, especially given their recent history.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Douglas, Riverton, Torrington, Buffalo, Rawlins, Lander. West Conference: Star Valley, Green River, Jackson, Powell, Cody, Worland.

Preseason top five: Star Valley, Douglas, Green River, Riverton, Jackson.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Star Valley 20, Douglas 14. The Braves will start the season as the 3A favorites, but not by much. They’ll need to prove themselves week in and week out. The fact that their coach has experience in the Star Valley system should make the transition easier than a coaching transition normally is — and that gives the Braves the early edge in 3A.

Cheesy 80s pop song that should play over the loudspeakers at War Memorial Stadium after this classification’s title game

Waiting for a Star to Fall by Boy Meets Girl. I think everyone in 3A is waiting for a “Star” to fall…

The last five 3A champions, as well as both of last year’s title-game participants, were West Conference teams. Is this the year an East Conference team shakes things up? Who’s everyone overlooking? How do you see 3A coming together this fall? Leave a comment and let us know!

Next Thursday: Class 4A.

–patrick

Class 2A preview: Who can it be now? (Because it could be anybody.)

by ⋅ 9 Comments

Go ahead: Pick any team in 2A.

Chances are good that the team you’ve chosen has won a championship in the past decade.

Wheatland, Big Horn, Lyman, Lovell, Thermopolis, Big Piney, Kemmerer, Glenrock, Mountain View… they’ve all won titles in this classification since 2006. And Burns won one in a different classification in that span.

That’s 10 programs out of 14 that have tasted championship-level success in the classification this decade. It’s easier to count the programs that haven’t won titles the past 10 years than the ones that have.

No wonder it feels like basically every program in the classification has the ability to take home a championship. Within the past few years, most of them have.

Four questions to answer

Defending champion Wheatland has to be the favorite, right? Well… no. Wheatland had a great 2015, but that title season was built with seniors, more than you could count on both hands. Now, the Bulldogs are restructuring, both with personnel and with new coach Tom Waring. They’ll still be in the hunt, but they won’t be the favorites from Day 1 like they were last year.

What team WILL be the favorite on Day 1? No one knows. Really. A strong case can be made for several teams — Greybull, Big Horn, Glenrock, Wheatland, Mountain View, Lovell — but no one team has a better case than any other. Parity may be the rule of the season.

Is this surprising? No way. Not for Class 2A. As noted, nine different programs have won the Class 2A title the past 10 years. Parity atop the classification has defined 2A for a decade, and this year appears no different.

Surprise me: Which team has the best chance to come out of nowhere? Pinedale. The Wranglers have a new coach (Mitch Espeland) and a new approach. As West Conference opponents can tell you, Pinedale was a tough team to beat last fall and was nearly in position to host a playoff game, but some bad bounces left the team out of the playoffs entirely. With nine starters back on both sides of the ball, the Wranglers might just be the surprise team of the classification.

Four players to watch

Garrett Schwindt, Glenrock. Last year’s 2A East Offensive Player of the Year ran for 1,341 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2015. With the Herders’ No. 2 and 3 options in the running game lost to graduation, Schwindt will take on an even bigger role in Glenrock’s option offense. Oh, and he was the Herders’ leading tackler a year ago, too.

Dawson Forcella, Greybull. Forcella was one of the Buffs’ top players on both offense and defense. He ran for 848 yards and 11 scores on one side of the ball and notched six tackles for loss, four pass breakups and an interception on the other. His versatility will be key for Greybull’s playoff push.

Nolan McCafferty, Big Horn. McCafferty is the only returning 2A player who was on the Casper Star-Tribune’s Super 25 first team last year. And it was mostly for his work on defense, where he was the Rams’ leading tackler. That’s likely to continue — after all, he is 2A’s leading returning tackler — but look for McCafferty to also take on more responsibilities on the offensive side of the ball this year, as well.

Jaret Collins, Lovell. Collins was the 2A West Lineman of the Year last season and is back for his senior year. He led the Bulldogs in tackles for loss (6) and sacks (3) last season, but on a Lovell team that lost four of its top six tacklers to graduation, he will be called on to do even more to get the Bulldogs back to the top of the West.

Four key games

Mountain View at Lyman, Sept. 9. The Bridger Valley Bowl is now in Week 2. So, in addition to being the rivalry game, this game takes on the added dimension of being both programs’ first conference game. A victory or a loss here might dictate the course of an entire season.

Lovell at Greybull, Sept. 16. Last year, this game was a squeaker; Lovell’s 18-15 victory gave it the West Conference championship. The stakes for this year’s game could be just as high.

Glenrock at Wheatland, Sept. 23. Games won’t get much bigger than this. Rematch of last year’s title game… regional rivals… contenders for the conference crown again… Yeah, this game has just about everything going for it.

Big Horn at Wheatland, Oct. 21. People tend to forget how efficiently and completely the Rams beat the Bulldogs last year. That’s because the Bulldogs overcame the loss to win the state title, while the Rams cratered in the quarterfinals. Even so, this Week 8 matchup should again have huge postseason implications.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Glenrock, Big Horn, Wheatland, Newcastle, Thermopolis, Burns, Moorcroft. West Conference: Greybull, Mountain View, Lovell, Pinedale, Lyman, Big Piney, Kemmerer.

Preseason top five: Glenrock, Greybull, Big Horn, Wheatland, Mountain View.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Glenrock 20, Greybull 18. The thing about the 2A playoffs this year? Every game could be decided by a single possession. Don’t count on anyone running away with the championship this year.

Cheesy 80s pop song that should play over the loudspeakers at War Memorial Stadium after this classification’s title game

Who Can it Be Now? by Men At Work. For obvious reasons. If you haven’t detected a trend for 2A yet, double-check those reading comprehension skills.

We can always count on 2A to be competitive at the top. So what do you think? Is this another year of dynasty-destroying parity? If so, who’s going to knock Wheatland from the catbird’s seat? Post a comment and let’s try to figure out this riddle together.

Next Thursday: Class 3A.

–patrick

Class 1A 11-man preview: The plea: Don’t forget about me

by ⋅ Leave a Comment

Once again, Class 1A 11-man appears predictable.

Just not in the same ways it was a couple years ago.

The 2015 season played out with uncertainty. No teams went undefeated, and neither one of the two top seeds in the playoffs reached the state title game.

The likelihood of such parity playing out again this year, though, is pretty slim. The favorites are loaded, and the distinction between lions and lambs seems clear.

But that’s why they play the games, right?

Four questions to answer

Can Upton-Sundance repeat? Not only can the Patriots repeat — they will be the favorites to do so. Of the Patriots’ six all-state selections last year, four were underclassmen. And with those four (seniors Hunter Woodard, John Sullivan and Thomas Davis and junior Dawson Butts), the Patriots will be the odds-on favorites to win Class 1A 11-man.

Is anyone else even in the discussion? Yes, but not really. Shoshoni could be Upton-Sundance’s biggest challenge to a title defense, and the two teams will play each other in Week 3 in what will likely be an anticlimactic feeling-out. Sure, you can throw in Tongue River, Cokeville, Rocky Mountain and Southeast into the conversation… but for now, these teams have a lot more to prove than Upton-Sundance does.

How much did reclassification affect 1A 11-man? In some ways, a bunch; in others, hardly at all. Riverside, Burlington and Lingle made the move to six-man, while Wright and Moorcroft flip-flopped spots between 2A and 1A 11-man. The biggest ripples from those changes will be felt in the nonconference part of the schedule; with only six teams per conference, nonconference travel has been greatly increased. However, of the teams that left the classification, only Lingle has been past the first round of the playoffs the past three years. Reclassification affected a lot but likely won’t affect who goes deep in the playoffs.

Is the East Conference still ahead of the West Conference? Yes. The talent in 1A 11-man definitely shifts to the East side of the state this year, just as it did last year. Although it’s unlikely the East will sweep the West in the first round of the playoffs as it did a year ago, the East Conference league schedule is definitely more challenging — and probably will prepare those teams better for the postseason.

Four players to watch

Brennan Kutterer, Tongue River. There wasn’t a single player in the state who averaged more defensive points per game last season than Kutterer, who led 11-man football regardless of classification with 282 defensive points (25.6 per game) and 76 solo tackles. However, he is the only one of the Eagles’ top four tacklers to return, making his return that much more critical to the Eagles’ hopes for another run at a title game.

J.J. Pingetzer, Shoshoni. The player closest to Kutterer’s heels in defensive points last season was Pingetzer — and Pingetzer is back this year, too. The Wrangler senior was the centerpiece of Class 1A 11-man’s best defenses last season, winning the West Conference’s defensive player of the year honors while notching nearly 12 tackles per game.

Ruger Lewis, Pine Bluffs. The senior led Class 1A 11-man with 168.4 rushing yards per game and finished the year with 1,179 yards. No returning player in the state, regardless of classification, comes close to Lewis’ yards per game average. On an improving Pine Bluffs team, Lewis might be primed for an even better season this fall.

Dawson Butts, Upton-Sundance. As a sophomore, Butts was a huge part of the Patriots’ title run, leading the team in rushing yards (1,202), receiving yards (181) and interceptions (four). Now that opponents know what he is capable of doing, he may be keyed on more this fall, but that should open up opportunities for his teammates, a nice benefit to have on a team that’s both deep and rich with talent.

Four key games

Shoshoni at Southeast, Sept. 9. One of the most appealing games of the nonconference schedule pits two teams that both have lofty goals this fall. Throw in the revenge angle — Shoshoni’s loss to Southeast in last year’s quarterfinals ended an undefeated season — and the game takes on a significance most early September games don’t have.

Pine Bluffs at Upton-Sundance, Sept. 23. The Hornets’ 3-4 finish in 2015 was a huge step forward. Their growth will be tested, though, in their first conference game, which just happens to come on the home field of the defending state champions.

Shoshoni at Cokeville, Oct. 21. For now, the Wranglers are the favorites in the West Conference; the Panthers aren’t. How that role reversal changes this Week 8 matchup will be intriguing to see play out.

Tongue River at Upton-Sundance, Oct. 21. The rematch of last year’s 1A 11-man title game doesn’t happen until the final week of the regular season. But that will only add to the suspense — by then, this game may have bigger things at stake than just the memories of 2015.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Upton-Sundance, Tongue River, Southeast, Pine Bluffs, Wright, Lusk. West Conference: Shoshoni, Cokeville, Rocky Mountain, Saratoga, Wind River, Wyoming Indian.

Preseason top five: Upton-Sundance, Shoshoni, Tongue River, Southeast, Cokeville.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Upton-Sundance 36, Shoshoni 20. The Patriots start the season head and shoulders above the rest of the classification. The question will be if they can stay there when every other team in the state starts gunning for them.

Cheesy 80s pop song that should play over the loudspeakers at War Memorial Stadium after this classification’s title game

Don’t You Forget About Me by Simple Minds. With Upton-Sundance the favorite to repeat as state champions, every other team is shouting this… And if U-S actually repeats, well, we won’t forget that, either.

So will it be a Patriot repeat? Will some underdog come in and spoil the fun for U-S fans? Will some team surprise us all? Let us see your predictions for 1A 11-man by leaving a comment.

Next Thursday: Class 2A preview.

–patrick

Class 1A six-man preview: Everybody wants to (and can) rule the (six-man) world

by ⋅ Leave a Comment

Six-man football in 2016, in one word? Adjustment.

Welcome, Lingle, Riverside and Burlington, to the world of six-man football. Your entries make six-man as deep, as talented and as difficult to grasp as ever.

The status quo of six-man just got tossed aside — there’s too much new blood for the old ways to feel comfortable anymore.

And yet… and yet… even among all the change in the classification, the classification’s stability at the top remains unquestioned. The best teams on paper are familiar programs. At least in 2016, it looks like what we’ve come to know about six-man will remain consistent. Or, as consistent as it can be in a year of adjustment.

Four questions to answer

How will six-man’s newcomers affect the state title chase? Not all that much, to be honest. Three programs — Lingle, Riverside and Burlington — will move from 11-man to six-man this fall, but only Burlington will be eligible for the playoffs. Although Lingle and Riverside will be big in the regular season, their influence won’t extend to the postseason. For now.

Who should be in the title chase, then? The usual suspects. Kaycee and Meeteetse, last year’s state champion and state runner-up, have the talent needed to again be contenders. Only six players return from last year’s six-man all-state team, and half of them play for either the Buckaroos or the Longhorns.

Who’s everyone overlooking? Farson. The Pronghorns have some young but talented players returning — the team’s top three tacklers last year were all freshmen — and also draw a favorable schedule, playing what will likely be their most strenuous West Conference games (against Meeteetse, Snake River and Burlington) at home.

So there’s not a lot of parity, then? Wait, wait, wait… I didn’t say that. Actually, coaches say this may be the most wide-open year in recent six-man history, with six or seven teams possessing legitimate ability to run at a title, including under-the-radar teams like Guernsey-Sunrise and Snake River. The difference between the pack leaders and the also-rans is smaller than ever.

Four players to watch

Seth Frederick, Guernsey-Sunrise. Of all players in six-man, Frederick is the one who shows up most often by name when coaches across the state list the top players in the classification. With reason: He’s been an all-state pick twice. And if the Vikings are going to reach Laramie, it’ll be on the legs of Frederick, who is the team’s lone returning all-state player, and a player every coach in the state will devise defensive game plans to stop.

Dalton Abarr, Meeteetse. A two-time all-stater already, Abarr runs the Longhorns’ offense like a surgeon. He led the team in passing (1,391 yards, 30 touchdowns, zero interceptions) and rushing (881 yards, 20 touchdowns) last year. His role on defense was more limited, but Abarr’s leadership in his senior season will be a big piece of the Longhorns’ push for another title game trip.

Mark Largent, Kaycee. The junior was the leading tackler on the Buckaroos’ state championship team last season, and he leads a defense that returns four of its top six tacklers — meaning opponents won’t be able to key solely on him. He’s also one of Kaycee’s top receivers.

Dallen Fleenor, Lingle. The senior was an all-stater for the Doggers at the 11-man level after piling up 872 rushing yards, 78 defensive points and team highs in receiving yards (103) and interceptions (three). Fleenor’s versatility should make Lingle’s transition from 11-man to six-man easier than usual.

Four key games

Midwest at Normative Services, Sept. 9. The Oilers lost just one senior from last year’s team. The Wolves are coming off their first six-man playoff qualification. Both teams are eager to prove they belong, and they’ll settle their differences in the first week of conference play.

Burlington at Farson, Sept. 10. The Huskies’ first conference game in six-man comes on the road against the Pronghorns, a team that could be one of the classification’s best. This will be a good litmus test for both teams.

Meeteetse at Snake River, Sept. 16. The Longhorns and Rattlers finished 1-2 in last year’s West Conference standings, and this Week 3 showdown in Baggs may again decide who takes the top seed into the playoffs.

Kaycee at Guernsey-Sunrise, Sept. 30. Kaycee’s only conference loss last year came at the hands of the Vikings. Both teams figure to be chasing the East Conference title this year, so this one will again be important.

Predicted order of finish

East Conference: Guernsey-Sunrise, Kaycee, Lingle, Midwest, NSI, Hanna, Hulett, Rock River. West Conference: Meeteetse, Farson, Snake River, Riverside, Burlington, Dubois, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens.

Preseason top five: Meeteetse, Guernsey-Sunrise, Lingle, Farson, Kaycee.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Meeteetse 44, Guernsey-Sunrise 36. The most interesting week in six-man might actually be the semifinals; enough parity exists in the classification to ensure that any team making it that far has a better-than-usual shot at a championship.

Cheesy 80s pop song that should play over the loudspeakers at War Memorial Stadium after this classification’s title game

Everybody Wants to Rule the World by Tears For Fears. Everybody wants to rule six-man… and what makes 2016 unique is that most of the teams in the classification are actually capable of doing so.

Maybe, just maybe, we’ll finally get a six-man championship game that’s actually close. Since six-man returned in 2009, title-game scores have been 76-16, 67-12, 54-33, 54-30, 65-30, 80-30 and 51-32. Unless you’ve actually made the trip to Baggs or Kaycee or Meeteetse or Farson, you probably haven’t seen just how exciting and competitive six-man football can really be. I think the parity’s in place not only for a competitive regular season but also for a heck of a title game.

Which team do you think has the best chance to hoist the title trophy come November? Leave your thoughts in a comment and let’s chat about it!

Next Thursday: Class 1A 11-man.

–patrick

Wyoming high school football preview magazine is out for 2015!

by ⋅ Leave a Comment

The annual Wyoming high school football preview magazine — with previews of every team in the state — is now out!

Hard copies of the magazine will be available soon at the locations of the advertisers who bought space in the magazine. The digital edition requires Flash and is best viewed on a desktop.

The magazine is by far the most comprehensive look at Wyoming high school football heading into the 2015 season. Every team has a full preview, including a listing of the schedule and that team’s key returning players. Every coach in the state took part in interviews over the summer for their team’s preview.

The magazine is a collaborative effort between wyoming-football.com and staff at idahsports.com.

Download your copy today! And pick up the hard copy at the advertisers who so generously supported this effort.

–patrick

Class 4A preview: Are the Big Four on the brink?

by ⋅ Leave a Comment

For five seasons, Class 4A has been controlled by the big four. Cheyenne East, Natrona, Sheridan and Gillette have advanced to 4A’s semifinal round five years in a row, with nary a challenge from the classification’s other six schools.

The buildup to 2015 has shown the usual suspects will likely meet each other for a sixth consecutive year in the semifinals, and almost certainly one of those four schools will win the title.

Just don’t tell that to the other six. Severe graduation losses in the big four, coupled with continued growth among 4A’s lower tier, shows 2015 might be the year the gap finally closes between 4A’s elite programs and its also-rans.

Four questions to answer

Is it still the big four in charge? For now, yes. Cheyenne East, Natrona, Sheridan and Gillette have had the final four playoff spots in Class 4A on lockdown since 2010, an unprecedented streak of success for a foursome of teams. However, enough uncertainty surrounds the top of the classification to make a surprise semifinalist — like maybe Cheyenne South, Cheyenne Central or Kelly Walsh — a possibility.

So of those big four, who’s the favorite? Right now on paper, it’s Sheridan. Of the top four 4A teams, the Broncs lost the fewest players. Experience is always key in Class 4A, and Sheridan has more of it than any other team.

Which of the other six schools have the best chance to break up the top four’s superiority? For the first time, Cheyenne South. The Bison return an experienced quarterback in Austin Barker, a solid running back in Marquez Jefferson and a defense that returns four of its top five tacklers. With that much talent back, South will likely earn its first playoff berth in school history.

Isn’t Natrona still in the mix? Of course. But the defending state champs lost more to graduation than any other team in the state. The Mustangs return just two of their top 22 tacklers from last year and just one of their 12 all-state selections. Those losses leave NC in a precarious situation — trying to reload with players who have basically no varsity experience.

Four players to watch

Quinn Happold, Cheyenne East. The only 4A player who’s a returning all-state selection at two positions (offensive and defensive line), Happold will be an important piece of the T-Birds’ restructuring process this season. It all starts up front.

Austin Barker, Cheyenne South. How Barker — who threw for a 4A-best 197 yards per game — missed out on all-state honors last year is beyond me. But he’s back for his senior season, and he could be the one who leads South to its first playoff berth in program history.

Zach Taylor, Gillette. A two-time all-state selection and Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team selection at linebacker last year, Taylor is also Gillette’s leading returning rusher. Already a legit defensive star, Taylor may be called on to do more on the offensive side this year, too.

Dontae Crow, Sheridan. Although Crow didn’t show up on the all-state list last year, every coach in the state knows who he is. After all, he posted more than 20 yards per catch as Sheridan’s top receiver last year and led Sheridan with six pass breakups. He’s an important, explosive player in what may be Sheridan’s breakthrough year.

Four key games

Cheyenne East at Natrona, Sept. 4. Of 4A’s top four, the Thunderbirds and the Mustangs have the most questions surrounding them entering the fall. The 4A hierarchy could be established quickly with this Week 1 contest.

Cheyenne Central at Cheyenne South, Sept. 4. Both the Indians and the Bison could be poised for breakout seasons in 2015. This contest will help establish which team is a legit threat to 4A’s top four and which one is simply along for the ride.

Sheridan at Gillette, Oct. 2. The Energy Bowl always ranks high as a key 4A game, but in a year where the Broncs and Camels return more players than most of their competitors, this game could be for the top seed in the playoffs.

Natrona at Sheridan, Oct. 16. Natrona has won six straight against Sheridan. For the Broncs to rise to the level of 4A favorite, they’ll have to be able to overcome the Mustangs in Week 7. At least they get this one at home….

Predicted order of finish

Sheridan, Gillette, Natrona, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Cheyenne Central, Kelly Walsh, Evanston, Laramie, Rock Springs.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Sheridan 30, Gillette 20. On paper, the Broncs have more returning firepower than any other team in Class 4A. If they can put it together like they’re capable, they’ll be the team to beat.

Do you agree? Is Sheridan actually the team to beat? Who has the best chance of winning it all? Which team has the best chance of knocking off one of the “big four” in the playoffs? Post your thoughts and let’s talk 4A.

–patrick

Class 3A preview: It’ll be a blast — but whose dreams will die in the explosion?

by ⋅ 3 Comments

When at least half the teams in a classification start the season with a realistic chance to win a state championship, you know you’re in for a fun year.

This is what we have in Class 3A this year.

With big losses suffered by last year’s title-game participants, the 2015 season is a big question mark. The classification has no clear favorite and no clear dividing lines between the challengers and the pretenders. That should make for a fun, unpredictable, and stressful year in 3A.

Four questions to answer

Are we seeing a changing of the guard in 3A? Possibly. Up until last year, 3A had been ruled for the past half-dozen years by Powell and Douglas, who each won three titles in a row. Then Cody won the title last year and demolished the hierarchy we all knew. And with the Broncs losing a ton of talented seniors, that means 3A is as wide open as it’s been in probably 20 years.

So who’s going to seize the open spot atop the class? Maybe Cody. Maybe Douglas. Maybe Jackson. Maybe Torrington. Maybe…. No one has a definitive answer. The bulk of last year’s best teams lost their best players; the bulk of last year’s challengers return their best players. That makes things messy, and competitive, and fun, in the top half of the class.

What position will be key to a deep playoff run? 2015 will be the year of the running back in 3A. Jackson’s Theo Dawson and Torrington’s Skyler Miller were both Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first-team selections and were their respective conference’s offensive players of the year last year, and they’re both back for their senior campaigns in ’15. For a couple programs starved for success (Jackson has just one title in the past 28 years; Torrington hasn’t won it all since 1990), running back will be the most important position on the field.

What’s up in Worland? Good question. A program and community known for stability, the Warriors will have their sixth head coach in five years when former Douglas assistant Todd Weber takes over this fall. Stability at the top will be key for re-establishing a program that has struggled to find its identity since longtime coach Wade Sanford left after the 2011 season.

Four players to watch

Theo Dawson, Jackson. He was the offensive player of the year in the West Conference last year. He was on the Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team. He ran for 1,439 yards last season. He’s also the state’s most high-profile recruiting target. Everyone’s keeping their eyes on Mr. Dawson, and for good reason.

Skyler Miller, Torrington. He was the offensive player of the year in the East Conference last year. He was on the Casper Star-Tribune Super 25 first team. He ran for 1,305 yards last season. And don’t forget, Miller’s Trailblazers beat Dawson’s Broncs in the playoffs last year.

Jace Allard, Rawlins. Allard finished second in the state, regardless of classification, with his 2,238 passing yards last season. He’s the leading returning passer in the state and he fronts a rejuvenated Outlaw offense that can cause teams fits. As long as Rawlins’ running game remains strong, Allard could rack up even gaudier stats this fall, potentially leading Rawlins to its first playoff victory since 2000.

Cam Myers, Cody. Cody had nine all-state players last year and Myers is the only one who’s back this fall. He’s Cody’s leading returning rusher, receiver and tackler. With last year’s seniors gone, Myers’ responsibilities will be magnified that much more this fall.

Four key games

Riverton at Torrington, Sept. 25. The Wolverines have been quiet so far this offseason, but they’ll definitely challenge the Trailblazers in both teams’ East Conference opener. If Riverton can pull off the road victory, watch out.

Torrington at Douglas, Oct. 2. While Torrington returns a boatload of players, Douglas returns a boatload of tradition. And if the Trailblazers want to be East Conference champs, they’ll have to knock off the Bearcats in Douglas — always a tough task.

Jackson at Cody, Oct. 9. These two teams played a hard-fought game last year, one of Cody’s toughest tests on the way to a title. Both teams will need this victory; that urgency could make this one a classic.

Powell at Cody, Oct. 23. The regular-season finale between these longtime rivals could be the biggest game of the year by the time Week 8 rolls around. Or it could just be another game. Either way, Panthers-Broncs is always a can’t-miss affair.

Predicted order of finish

East: Torrington, Douglas, Rawlins, Riverton, Buffalo, Lander. West: Jackson, Cody, Star Valley, Powell, Green River, Worland.

Preseason top five: Jackson, Torrington, Cody, Douglas, Rawlins.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Jackson 24, Torrington 20. However, picking a champion for this classification this early is an exercise in futility. With no clear favorites, 3A will be a blast to follow all season long.

I can realistically see seven or eight different programs having a real shot at a state title. Goodness. Who do YOU think is the favorite for the 3A title? Which team has some surprises ready to show the rest of the state? Post a comment and we can try to figure this classification out together — because I know, this year, I don’t think anyone has any real idea of what might happen.

Next week: Class 4A.

–patrick

Class 2A preview: Who let the (Bull)dogs out?

by ⋅ 4 Comments

Class 2A has shown more parity over the past decade than any other classification.

With five different state champions in the past five years — and eight different champions in the past nine years — 2A has been full of unpredictability. In fact, accounting for reclassification, nine of the 14 schools in 2A have won state titles in the past nine years.

A 10th may join the ranks this fall.

In short, expect another “typical” year in 2A.

Four questions to answer

Will we see Big Horn and Mountain View in the title game for the third consecutive year? Maybe, but neither one is the favorite for the 2015 title. That honor goes to Wheatland, which retains all four of its all-state selections. The Bulldogs nearly knocked off Big Horn in the semifinals last year and appear poised for a run at the school’s second football title and its first since 1984.

Who else has a good shot at the title? Well, Mountain View and Big Horn. The Buffalos return three all-staters and the Rams a pair; Thermopolis is the only other team in the classification to bring back more than one all-state selection from last year.

Anyone else in the state title mix? Not really. Class 2A has a bunch of teams with potential — Lovell, Greybull, Big Piney, Lyman, Glenrock, Newcastle and Thermopolis should all be competitive. But none stands out as a potential championship threat. Yet.

Can Kemmerer break its losing streak? If so, look for it to happen sooner, not later. The Rangers, who enter the season on a state-worst 20-game losing streak, are the only 2A team with a new coach. Kemmerer native Jason Ferrarini has the unenviable task of trying to end the streak in a season with an unforgiving schedule that gets tougher as the season progresses.

Four players to watch

Justis Borton, Wheatland. Borton was the 2A East lineman of the year last year as a junior and led the Bulldogs with 11.5 tackles for loss. He fronts a cadre of Bulldog seniors ready to make a run at a state championship.

Josh Calvert, Wheatland. If Borton is the best lineman in 2A this year, his teammate Calvert is right on his heels. Calvert led the Bulldogs’ defense in defensive points last season, notching team highs in solo tackles, assisted tackles and blocked kicks. Strength up front makes Wheatland a tough team to stop.

Tyler Cornwell, Thermopolis. Cornwell’s numbers dipped a bit in his junior campaign, going from 1,012 rushing yards in 2013 to 924 in 2014, but he’s 2A’s leading returning rusher and the only player in the classification who’s already got two all-state selections to his name. (Updated 2:20 p.m. Aug. 6 to fix Tyler’s first name.)

Beau Green, Lovell. Green enters his third season under center for the Bulldogs as one of the classification’s most established quarterbacks. He threw for 1,056 yards and 13 touchdowns last year and piled up 1,271 and 16 TDs as a sophomore; if his young receivers come along quickly, this year could be even bigger.

Four key games

Mountain View at Greybull, Sept. 11. Mountain View’s biggest conference game may be its first against Greybull — a challenge made even tougher by the 329-mile one-way trip. The defending champs will have to prove their mettle early to establish themselves as the team to beat out west.

Big Horn at Thermopolis, Oct. 2. While Wheatland is the clear favorite in the East, both the Rams and Bobcats will line up with competitive squads this fall, too. This midseason showdown may make the difference between who hosts a playoff game and who goes on the road.

Lyman at Mountain View, Oct. 23. The Bridger Valley Bowl has had huge implications the past few years, and this year figures to be no different. This Week 8 showdown will likely have playoff seeding and qualification question marks all over it.

Big Horn at Wheatland, Oct. 23. The defending conference champion Rams have to make the trip south to play the Bulldogs in the regular-season finale. If both teams live up to preseason expectations, this could be for the East title.

Predicted order of finish

East: Wheatland, Big Horn, Thermopolis, Glenrock, Newcastle, Burns, Wright. West: Mountain View, Greybull, Lovell, Big Piney, Lyman, Pinedale, Kemmerer.

Preseason top five: Wheatland, Big Horn, Mountain View, Thermopolis, Greybull.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Wheatland 28, Big Horn 14. The Bulldogs have enough talent to earn the title of preseason favorite. In a classification that, historically, is as parity-filled and competitive as 2A, though, Wheatland can’t take anything for granted.

So what do you think? Is the 2A title Wheatland’s to lose? What team do you see as the one poised to break through this season? Leave a comment and we can chat about what looks like a predictable season — which, as we know, in 2A, means little….

Next week: Class 3A.

–patrick

Class 1A 11-man preview: Whatever happened to predictability?

by ⋅ 1 Comment

The past few years in Class 1A 11-man have been pretty predictable: Cokeville, Lusk, occasionally Southeast, and everyone else.

Not this year.

Graduation, coaching turnover, program resurgence and more make the classification more turbulent and parity-filled than ever. Several squads have a better-than-average chance at hoisting the state championship trophy in November.

When the top programs graduate a lot of players and the mid-range programs don’t, it means the race is wide open.

Four questions to answer

Cokeville again, right? Don’t be so sure. The Panthers have won four of the past five Class 1A 11-man championships but probably face their toughest challenge of the 2010s this year. Although the Panthers are still the prohibitive favorites, they’ll face tough challenges from improved West Conference foes like Rocky Mountain and Shoshoni and may see even tougher challengers come from the East.

Like who? Well, Lingle, Upton-Sundance, Southeast and Tongue River could all be better than last year, and Lingle in particular seems poised for a big breakthrough. Don’t be surprised if the classification’s two smallest schools (Lingle and Cokeville), who both had to opt up to 11-man after their enrollments had them in six-man, end up facing off for the state title.

Which team is most likely to play spoiler for that scenario? Shoshoni. The Wranglers return all four of their all-conference selections and both their all-state picks, seniors Patrick Forster and Connor Wilkinson. Although Shoshoni hasn’t won a playoff game since 2001, this might be the year the Wranglers cause some serious damage in the postseason.

Hey, you forgot to mention Lusk. Right? Nope… With a new coach and just one of its seven all-state players back, the Tigers are in full rebuilding mode. However, for Lusk, that means something different than it does for most schools. The Tigers are still a favorite for a playoff berth, but making it back to a title game will be difficult for a team with something Lusk teams aren’t used to having: a lack of experience.

Four players to watch

Colten Wunder, Lingle. The Doggers’ leading tackler from a year ago leads a stacked Lingle defense that returns six of its top nine tacklers. If Wunder can provide consistency in the front seven, he could be the key to a run at a conference — or state — title.

Ellis Toomer, Cokeville. The all-state selection is Cokeville’s leading returning rusher, receiver and tackler. For better or for worse, maintaining Cokeville’s dynasty will fall heavily on Toomer and his senior classmates.

Connor Wilkinson, Shoshoni. Wilkinson pulled off a rare double dip last year by leading the Wranglers in both rushing (666 yards, 7 TDs) and receiving (231 yards, 1 TD). He’s also a cornerstone of the Wranglers’ defense.

Jeff Burroughs, Southeast. An all-stater as a sophomore, Burroughs missed most of last year with a broken leg. Despite that, he still led the Cyclones in rushing and passing yards — showing both his talent and his importance to his team. His presence will be key in Southeast’s attempt to bounce back to its winning ways.

Four key games

Shoshoni at Rocky Mountain, Sept. 11. Both the Wranglers and Grizzlies have high hopes in 2015. And if either one wants to challenge Cokeville for supremacy in the West Conference, they have to win this key league opener.

Cokeville at Shoshoni, Sept. 18. Cokeville’s toughest conference road game comes early in the season, and that plays to Shoshoni’s advantage. An experienced Wrangler squad might just be game enough to give the defending champs a tussle.

Southeast at Lingle, Sept. 25. The Cyclones have been a sleeper team this offseason, but they could be a surprise contender out of the East if everyone returns healthy. This game against the Doggers could be a huge statement game for Southeast.

Lusk at Lingle, Oct. 9. Lingle has beaten Lusk just once in the past decade. And if the Doggers want to be legit contenders for the conference and state crowns, they’ll have to find a way to overcome their perennial nemesis.

Predicted order of finish

East: Lingle, Upton-Sundance, Southeast, Lusk, Tongue River, Moorcroft, Pine Bluffs. West: Cokeville, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Burlington, Wind River, Saratoga, Wyoming Indian.

Preseason top five: Cokeville, Lingle, Shoshoni, Upton-Sundance, Southeast.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Cokeville 20, Lingle 14. Even when Cokeville is down, it’s good. The Panthers have enough talent in tow to win it all — but so do about five other teams in the classification. Look for a lot of parity at the top, and maybe even a surprise champion. Until then, though, count on the team that’s won four of the past five 1A 11-man titles.

In short: 1A 11-man is going to be fun this year. Even teams that finish second or third in their respective conferences will be legit threats to win a state championship. That sort of unpredictability should give us plenty to talk about… so leave a comment and let’s chat!

Next week: Class 2A.

–patrick

Class 1A six-man preview: Parity? Perfection? Both?

by ⋅ 3 Comments

Since six-man’s restart in 2009, every season has started with a clear favorite. Even though that preseason favorite didn’t always win the state title, at least there was consistency when coaches tried to answer the question of who was the team most likely to win it all.

This year, though, the predictions vary widely. That lack of certainty means a variety of teams have real chances to win it all this year. Talent, experience and past successes are evenly distributed across several teams.

In short: Six-man will be really tight at the top this fall.

Four questions to answer

Can Guernsey repeat as state champion? Maybe, but six-man’s trends suggest otherwise. Repetition has proven challenging in the classification, as six-man hasn’t had a repeat champion since Snake River in 2011. Dubois won it all in 2012, Meeteetse in 2013 and Guernsey in 2014.

Will the classification have another undefeated champ? Probably. Since six-man was reinstated in 2009, every single state champion has been undefeated against in-state competition. Those regular-season losses have all proven fatal to a team’s title hopes.

You’re dancing around the obvious question: Who’s the favorite? Right now, Meeteetse, Kaycee and Guernsey have the coach’s votes. Six-man only has six returning all-state players coming back this year, and five of the six are on these three teams.

What program is the darkhorse in all of this? Farson. The Pronghorns could be one of the surprise teams in six-man this year if everything goes right. They lost some key players to graduation and to transfers, but if they can overcome or recoup those losses, they might host a playoff game for the first time in program history.

Four (OK, five) players to watch

Taylor Rouse, Kaycee. Rouse is the only two-time all-state selection playing in six-man this year, and by the time this season is done, he’ll likely have three. He ran for 1,584 yards and 24 touchdowns last year and scored a whopping 205 points (22.8 points per game). He’s the keystone in Kaycee’s state title hopes this year.

Braden Duncan, Snake River. Duncan’s rushing totals last year — 2,129 yards, 25 touchdowns, 13.9 yards per attempt — were gaudy, even for six-man. And despite leading six-man in rushing, he still couldn’t crack the all-state team. But opposing coaches know about him, and his presence makes the Rattlers an automatic contender.

Zac Rose, Dubois. If the Rams want to make it to their fourth championship game in five years, it’ll be on Rose’s back. The all-state selection is Dubois’ leading returner in rushing, tackling, scoring and kick returning. His role is critical on a team that lost four all-state selections to graduation.

Dalton Abarr and Carter Johnson, Meeteetse. Abarr, a junior quarterback, and Johnson, a senior receiver/running back, make up six-man’s most dynamic aerial threat. They combined for 640 yards and 12 TDs a year ago, nearly half of Abarr’s 1,328 passing yards. Oh, and they’re the Longhorns’ top two returning tacklers, too.

Four key games

Kaycee at Guernsey, Sept. 11. The Buckaroos’ first East Conference game of the season is on the grass of the defending state champions. The trajectory of the East race will be set right here; the loser will play catch-up all season long.

Snake River at Meeteetse, Sept. 11. Similarly, the West Conference’s pace will be set in the conference opener between the Rattlers and Longhorns, two teams that each want to prove they’re the favorite.

Farson at Meeteetse, Sept. 25. The Pronghorns nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback last year against the Longhorns, eventually coming up one point short. Both teams will have that game in mind this time around in a game that will have huge playoff implications.

Hanna at Kaycee, Oct. 23. This Week 8 game could be huge. The Miners are eager to prove they’ve got what it takes to hang with the state’s best teams, and a victory here could go a long way toward a deep playoff push.

Predicted order of finish

East: Kaycee, Guernsey, Hanna, Midwest, Hulett, NSI, Rock River. West: Meeteetse, Snake River, Farson, Dubois, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens.

Preseason top five: Kaycee, Meeteetse, Snake River, Guernsey, Farson.

Way-too-early title game score prediction

Kaycee 54, Meeteetse 52. The state’s six-man coaches are split — about a third say Kaycee is the team to beat, about a third say Meeteetse and about a third think someone else could come in and surprise everyone. Expect a tight one in Laramie. But expect the road to Laramie to be full of parity and problems, and don’t be surprised if one of those dark-horse teams pulls off something six-man doesn’t see too much: a playoff upset.

Six-man’s wide-open nature this fall should provide some excitement and may lead to another thing that Wyoming has yet to see: a six-man title game that’s actually close late in the fourth quarter. Do you think it’ll actually finish that way? Post a comment and let’s talk about the 80×40 version of the game.

Next week: Class 1A 11-man.

(Updated 4:58 p.m. Aug. 7 to fix the dates of the Sept. 11 games.)

–patrick