2009 WHSAA football power ratings: Glad or sad they’re gone?

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The Wyoming High School Activities Association’s eight-year experiment with power ratings came to a merciful close last fall. The 2009 season was a return to the past — using conference records to determine playoff qualifiers — but did it make any change?

Actually, if last year’s system was in place this year, only one of the playoff qualifiers would have changed: Powell would have made it in Class 3A and Riverton would have been bumped.

That’s the only change, but it’s interesting and important to note that the more common opponents teams have, the less relevant power ratings become. Such was the case this year — with nothing but common opponents in 4A and all but one week of common opponents in 2A and 1A 11-man.

For argument, though, here are this year’s WHSAA power ratings, class by class, with a little breakdown of how playoff qualifying would have broken down:

In Class 4A, it wouldn’t have mattered, since the power ratings can’t really influence anything if the teams only play each other round-robin style. The playoff pairings are exactly the same. For argument’s sake, though, here they are:
1. Sheridan 32.39
2. Cheyenne Central 31.28
3. Gillette 31.28
4. Green River 30.27
5. Kelly Walsh 29.06
6. Rock Springs 27.94
7. Laramie 26.83
8. Natrona 25.72
9. Cheyenne East 25.72
10. Evanston 24.03

In Class 3A…. There is the most room for change, because there are fewer common opponents in this division than in any other. With the East (Douglas) hosting the title game last year, the West top seed would have been No. 1 overall. (Note: All that’s missing is the result from Hardin, Mont., from Friday, which would bump Cody’s PR up or down a few decimals, but wouldn’t have affected playoff seeding anyway.)
1. Douglas 32.82
2. Buffalo 30.88
3. Star Valley 30.50
4. Cody 30.30
5. Worland 29.88
6. Torrington 29.07
7. Powell 28.50
8. Lander 28.38
9. Riverton 27.13
10. Jackson 25.75
11. Wheatland 24.44
12. Rawlins 23.25
Playoff Pairings: (8) Lander at (1W) Cody; (5) Star Valley at (2E) Buffalo; (6) Torrington at (2W) Worland; (7) Powell at (1E) Douglas

In both 2A and 1A 11-man, little would have changed because the systems, like the one in 4A, relies a ton on conference games….

In Class 2A… With both of last year’s hosts, Burns and Glenrock, in the East, the top seed would have gone to the West Conference champ… but little matter. Playoff pairings would have been exactly the same.
1. Glenrock 33.75
2. Kemmerer 32.63
3. Greybull 32.25
4. Thermopolis 31.88
5. Big Piney 30.88
6. Big Horn 30.00
7. Lovell 29.63
8. Wright 28.38
9. Burns 27.00
10. Moorcroft 26.88
11. Lyman 26.25
12. Pinedale 26.00
13. Mountain View 25.13
14. Wyoming Indian 25.00
15. Tongue River 24.63
16. Newcastle 23.75
Playoff  pairings: (8) Wright at (1W) Kemmerer; (5) Big Piney at (2E) Thermopolis; (6) Big Horn at (2W) Greybull; (7) Lovell at (1E) Glenrock.

In 1A 11-man… A couple first-round matchups would have been flipped around, with Riverside and Pine Bluffs cutting their travel down to play teams closer to home in the first round. With Burlington hosting last year, the top seed would have gone to the East Conference winner… The Dubois-Shoshoni game scheduled for Tuesday is omitted here; neither one was in the playoff hunt, and the result of that game would have had a negligible effect on the power ratings and wouldn’t have changed the playoff pairings.
1. Cokeville 33.11
2. Lingle 32.25
3. Southeast 32.00
4. Wind River 31.86
5. Lusk 31.13
6. Pine Bluffs 29.56
7. Riverside 29.49
8. Rocky Mountain 29.36
9. Burlington 28.76
10. Hulett 28.38
11. Saratoga 26.39
12. Sundance 26.13
13. Upton 25.81
14. Normative Services 25.13
Dubois, Shoshoni NA
Playoff pairings: (8) Rocky Mountain at (1E) Southeast; (5) Lusk at (2W) Wind River; (6) Pine Bluffs at (2E) Lingle; (7) Riverside at (1W) Cokeville.

In 1A six-man… without a defending state champion, the conference that earned hosting duties would have been assigned by the WHSAA. I’ve presented both options below. Oddly enough, the four East Conference teams went 1-4 in the power ratings… In either case, the first-round pairings would have been different in both options.
1. Guernsey 33.97
2. Midwest 31.95
3. Hanna 30.17
4. Kaycee 29.34
5. Ten Sleep 28.25
6. Snake River 27.03
7. Meeteetse 24.56
8. Farson 23.50
Playoff pairings with East winner as top seed: (8) Farson at (1E) Guernsey; (5) Hanna at (2W) Snake River; (6) Kaycee at (2E) Midwest; (7) Meeteetse at (1W) Ten Sleep.
Playoff pairings with West winner as top seed: (8) Farson at (1W) Ten Sleep; (5) Hanna at (2E) Midwest; (6) Kaycee at (2W) Snake River; (7) Meeteetse at (1E) Guernsey.

Like I said earlier today, I haven’t heard anyone whining about the loss of power ratings. After seeing this, though, what do you think? Still glad to see it gone, or do you think there were instances this year that give it cause for coming back? Let me know your opinion; post a comment below.

–patrick

WHSFB HQ debate, circa 2011 — What about South?

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Welcome, Cheyenne South.

And good luck, Wyoming High School Activities Association.

Although Wyoming’s newest high school on Cheyenne’s south side won’t be opening until next fall, freshman will begin participating for South at the sub-varsity level in team sports and at the varsity level in individual sports this fall.

The South football team, meanwhile, will not be heading for varsity play until 2011. It’s perfect timing, since that’s when the WHSAA will reclassify its schools again and align them into new divisions.

The question with realigning football to fit Cheyenne South into the scheme boils down to one simple question: Will the WHSAA choose to keep Class 4A at 10 teams, or expand it to 11 or 12?

10 Teams

If the WHSAA elects to stay at 10 for 4A — and, by default, stick with the 10-12-16 split it has now in football for 4A, 3A and 2A — South will bump out the smallest 4A football school (right now Green River) into 3A. And Green River will bump the smallest 3A football school, right now Wheatland, into 2A. And Wheatland will bump the smallest 2A football school, right now Wyoming Indian, into 1A.

The other option is to go to a 10-14-14 split, where Green River will still be bumped down to 3A but the largest 2A school, right now Pinedale, will be bumped up from 2A into 3A. With that set-up, the smallest 2A (now Wyoming Indian) heads to 1A.

Another question that comes out of this: Would Green River ACCEPT a “demotion” to 3A? It’s possible the Wolves could just opt up to 4A, rendering the whole 10-team league idea moot.

11 Teams

The possibility is there that the WHSAA could just expand 4A to 11 teams, much like it had before the most recent reclassification cycle. Of course, that means the division would need to be split into two conferences and the round-robin schedule in place now would be gone. It sounds like a disaster situation for scheduling, especially if the other divisions remain with limited out-of-conference play, and I think the WHSAA would do everything it could to avoid this situation. I think the only way this happens is if Green River and Star Valley both push hard — Green River to stay 4A and Star Valley to stay 3A.

12 Teams

If the WHSAA expands to 12 for 4A, South and the No. 12 school, right now Star Valley, would join the 4A football ranks. From there, the question becomes: How many in 3A? A 12-12 split makes the most sense, as the largest 2A football school, right now Pinedale, jumps in to take Star Valley’s spot in 3A. And then the largest 1A football school, right now Pine Bluffs, jumps to take Pinedale’s spot in 2A.

Given its past history, I don’t see the WHSAA putting more than 24 schools into 4A and 3A combined for football.

Of course, enrollment changes and school shifts could help dictate the alignment of the classifications and conferences much more than the addition of one school.

Even so, there will be change in 2011. And there will plenty of possibilities.

And I’m sure the WHSAA leadership has already jumped on some ideas — and the phone — to see what might be coming down the pipe during reclassification debates when it comes up for vote next fall.

Also….

I made a couple quick updates to the site today. I posted an updated list of missing games to reflect what games still need updates. Check it out and see if you can add some information into the scores database that I don’t have.

I also corrected Upton’s record for 2004. The Bobcats were 8-3; I had them listed at 7-4. The correction has been made on all the relevant pages.

–patrick

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