The shaking of my confidence continues today with Class 3A, the fourth of a five-part picks marathon. Before you read the picks below, take a minute to read a brief introduction to how these picks are made.
THE PICKS
East: Douglas, Buffalo, Riverton, Lander, Torrington, Rawlins. West: Powell, Star Valley, Cody, Green River, Jackson, Worland.
THE TEAMS
Douglas
Pick: First in East
Confidence Index: 75 percent
My gut says: The East side is down a bit this year, and a solid Bearcats squad will benefit from that.
Buffalo
Pick: Second in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I’m still trying to decide if Buffalo’s slide to a losing record last year was an aberration or the start of a trend. I’m thinking aberration.
Riverton
Pick: Third in East
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: After last year’s run to the conference title, the Wolverines lost a lot to graduation. Such losses almost always precipitate a drop in the standings. Oh, and a new system to learn….
Lander
Pick: Fourth in East
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: The Tigers still have steps to make to be considered a true conference title contender. But they’re not a bad team by any stretch.
Torrington
Pick: Fifth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: I think the top four and bottom two are pretty clear in the East. However, that means the Trailblazers are just an upset away from the playoffs….
Rawlins
Pick: Sixth in East
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: You’ll notice that my confidence levels for Torrington and Rawlins are exactly the same. That’s because the loser of that Torrington-Rawlins game in Week 5 will have a heck of a time escaping the basement.
Powell
Pick: First in West
Confidence Index: 90 percent
My gut says: This is one of the easiest picks of the season. The two-time defending champs have a ton of talent coming back. And everyone knows it.
Star Valley
Pick: Second in West
Confidence Index: 50 percent
My gut says: The West will be a challenging conference this year. I’m really curious to see how the Braves respond after some success last year.
Cody
Pick: Third in West
Confidence Index: 40 percent
My gut says: Cody’s best chance at a state title may be a year away. That doesn’t mean they can’t be contenders right now, though.
Green River
Pick: Fourth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: I’m a bit scared to have the Wolves this low, but in a stacked conference, this is all the higher they can go in the preseason.
Jackson
Pick: Fifth in West
Confidence Index: 65 percent
My gut says: Unfortunately for the Broncs (and Worland), I think the dividing line between playoff and non-playoff teams in the West this year is pretty clear.
Worland
Pick: Sixth in West
Confidence Index: 55 percent
My gut says: I feel like everyone’s overlooking Worland. Including me.
PLAYOFFS: Quarterfinals, Douglas over Green River, Cody over Buffalo, Star Valley over Riverton, Powell over Lander; semifinals, Star Valley over Douglas, Powell over Cody; championship, Powell over Star Valley.
Class 3A seems pretty straightforward this year: Everyone’s chasing Powell, and the West is stronger than the East. But is it really that simple? Is anything in life ever what it seems?
Tomorrow: Class 4A.
–patrick
Patrick,
This just happened to be the first class that I have read, so here we go with some PREDICTIONS:
The West will be wild this year and I think that Cody will beat either Powell or Star Valley and force a 3 way tie…
I think you are right with the East, as defending conference champions Riverton, seem to be catching on to the new system pretty well. Buffalo and Douglas will be a good game in Buffalo..In fact, Buffalo gets the toughest two conference games at home. Lander could knock off one of these teams and will fight with Rawlins for the 4th playoff spot. Could be a jamboree for the last two playoff spots in the East.
Don’t be too quick to shut out the Jackson Broncs, last year they were one turn over away from beating Cody, who actually isn’t that good of a team, they are very young. The Jackson broncs lose 3 starters due to graduation so watch out.
As always Patrick, hats off for tackling all the classifications, I know I”d never do that. In 3A, Powell has horses for sure. As good as Cragoe is at quarterback, I was even more impressed with him in our two meetings as a tackler. Especially the state championship. There were no fewer than a half-dozen times it looked like we were going to get a big running play and he would make a terrific tackle. I am reminded of John Wendling and Chris Prosinski when I watch him on defense. Lynch is a physical specimen and Heny is a game-breaker and Stringer is one of a great handful of linemen. There’s a reason people are chasing them. As for the Braves, we will be a bit of a different team than last year because it just isn’t every year you have a 190 lb running back with some speed like Brough last year. But the biggest adjustment will be our offensive line. We’ve got some very strong and capable kids coming in there, but we’ve got some work to do with them in terms of varsity experience. Skill-position wise, the Braves seem loaded. Haderlie at QB will have a lot of guys to spread the ball around to if the line gives him time. Eric Pantuso and Bryan Burton are two guys people may not be familiar with that I think will have big years. Sam Gertsch is the team leader along with Haderlie and they should be tough. The good news in a match up with Powell is that the game is in Afton. Even when Powell wins the title they struggle in Afton. That might be a HUGE game in terms of 3A West and playoff seeding potential.
Cody is a team that really impressed me down the stretch. That was not the same group that we hammered during the regular season. They have some big strong kids on the line that may be able to control the game against most teams if they click. Some good talent returning at QB, RB and WR, They definitely could mess up a Powell/SV tilt in the West.
I differ from Patrick on the 4th spot in the West, I don’t know that Green River has enough guys coming back from back-to-back really athletic teams. Maybe I”m dead wrong, hopefully Mr. Core can enlighten us. Jackson has a ton of kids coming back, but they will really miss Linsenmann as a back, he was a special kid. I think that 4th spot if up for grabs with GR and Jax. I think Worland is really getting beat up with the overall numbers of their program, but they obviously have a lot of history.
I’m anxious to see how Douglas responds after not making the title game. That’s a good staff and I was impressed by Roberts at QB, he’s a scrapper. Buffalo is always tough, but losing Rogers is a big deal. I was amazed by him at HB and during the soccer season. As for Riverton, not to offend anyone, but when you graduate a loaded class like they did and then have the entire coaching staff overhauled, it rarely pans out well in that first year. Lander could surprise, but I would list them behind Douglas and Buffalo.
Anyway, there’s my, well, it was more like 5 cents instead of 2 cents, but like everybody else, I”m anxious for some more high school football! Good luck to everybody over the next six weeks, hopefully everybody is healthy heading into the season.
Jackson has good potential and I’m excited to see what they do with it. It’s that old joke — Jackson has nine starters back from a team that missed the playoffs, but conversely Jackson has nine starters back from a team that missed the playoffs. Jackson in also fortunate that it has Green River at Jackson this year.
–patrick