Week 5 picks

Newcastle’s road back to legitimacy was a long one.

Midway through the 2011 season, though, we can see the Dogies are not just legit — they might just be a little bit dangerous, too.

Since losing to Custer, S.D., and to Southeast to start the season, the Dogies have won three games in a row heading into Friday’s showdown with Glenrock (kickoff at 6 p.m. in Glenrock). More importantly, all three of those games have been 2A East Conference games.

What stands out about the Dogies’ recent run is keyed by defense. The Dogies’ last three opponents have scored just 12 total points.

Of course, Newcastle’s recent success helps offset some of the struggles the Dogies have experienced the past, oh, three decades. Newcastle has had just one winning season since 1983 and has made the playoffs just twice this century.

Last year, the Dogies made the playoffs and finished 4-6 — at one point winning four out of five games — a good first step for a program with such a spotty recent history. Newcastle’s quick start to the 2011 conference season helps show they plan on making winning a more consistent trait.

The next step is to beat the teams that have set the standard everyone else has tried to follow. Teams like Glenrock.

The Herders’ success has more or less mirrored the Dogies’ struggles. Glenrock has won three state titles since 2002 and has made it to a state title game in six of the past nine years.

Newcastle helped show it was up for such a challenge last year by beating Glenrock 7-6; however, that victory came in an unusually difficult 2-6 year for the Herders. That’s not the case this year, as the Herders enter their game with the Dogies at 4-0.

Friday’s victor takes sole control of first place in the 2A East and controls its own destiny the rest of the season for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

It’s a position Glenrock knows well and Newcastle hasn’t seen in awhile. That’s why I am picking the Herders to win.

If Newcastle wins, though, it will be just the latest step in a long-awaited and very visible march to respectability that’s been a long time coming. (Glenrock leads series 22-15)

Here are the rest of the Week 5 picks, with the teams I think will win in bold and the teams I think will still have fun anyway in non-bold:

Friday
Class 4A
Cheyenne Central at Laramie: The Indians always seem about one play away from breaking into 4A’s upper echelon. Maybe those plays are just building up somewhere for unleashing later in the season. 7 p.m. (CC 62-58-6)
Cheyenne South at Evanston: After winning a really close one last week, the Red Devils have to be feeling pretty good about their chances for the rest of the season. 7 p.m. (First meeting)
Natrona at Cheyenne East: This is a really tough trip for the Mustangs, but the orange and black have a defense that has given up just 25 points all season. Having that to rely on should ease some of the pressure off the offense. 7 p.m. (NC 36-15)
Rock Springs at Kelly Walsh: Both of these teams desperately need a victory to keep playoff hopes moving forward. Winless KW might be feeling a bit more desperate than the one-win Tigers, though — and the Trojans get this one at home. 7 p.m. (KW 11-10)
Sheridan at Gillette: Subplots aside, the ability for both teams to run the ball consistently will probably be what determines the winner in this one. That, and maybe a big special teams play somewhere along the way. May be the best game of the week in any classification. 7 p.m. (She 38-26-1)
Class 3A
Cody at Jackson: Cody just keeps moving in the right direction. They just keep losing, too. I am playing a hunch that I think that losing streak comes to an end this week, but the good play will continue. 7 p.m. (Cod 13-6)
Lander at Douglas: Man, I have fretted about this pick all week long. This is one of those games where I just pick the home team and don’t sweat the outcome, because it should be a great game no matter what. 7 p.m. (Lan 6-5)
Powell at Star Valley: Back in May, some gentlemen (who shall remain nameless) put me on the spot and asked me who would win the 3A football title in November. I said Powell. I have yet to see any reason to waver on that choice. 4 p.m. (SV 23-8)
Rawlins at Torrington: You heard it here first: The Rawlins losing streak ends Friday, in Torrington, at 27 games. Outlaws have been improving rapidly. 7 p.m. (Tor 22-4-1)
Riverton at Buffalo: When was the last time you saw the Bison lose their first two conference games of a season? 1932? 7 p.m. (Buf 6-5)
Worland at Green River: The Wolves got a bit of a scare put into them last week, but they should rally around that narrow escape and come out firing this week. 7 p.m. (GR 5-4)
Class 2A
Big Horn at Wheatland: Wheatland turned the ball over seven times to Glenrock two weeks ago; Big Horn turned it over four times against Glenrock last week. The team that forces the most turnovers in this one will probably be the team to win. 6 p.m. (First meeting)
Burns at Moorcroft: The Broncs have had a handle on the Wolves the past two seasons. It’s a long trip, but the Broncs should have what it takes to get it done for a third year in a row. 3 p.m. (Mor 7-2)
Kemmerer at Big Piney: There’s no escaping the fact that the Punchers are struggling this year — which is all the more reason for the Rangers not to overlook them. 3 p.m. (Kem 21-17-1)
Lovell at Greybull: Greybull has quietly started the season undefeated, and they’ll definitely give Lovell, who’s also undefeated, everything it can handle. But the Bulldogs are the favorites out west and will be until someone proves otherwise. 7 p.m. (Lov 52-27-4)
Mountain View at Pinedale: Who are these Buffalos? Even when they lose they look good. But they’ll win this one. 7 p.m. (MV 36-25-2)
Thermopolis at Lyman: Remember last year, when Thermop beat Lyman 53-0 in the playoff quarterfinals? So do the Eagles. 2 p.m. (The 12-5)
Class 1A 11-man
Cokeville at Rocky Mountain: To butcher a phrase: Long trip. Amazing results. 2 p.m. (Cok 6-0)
Lingle at Sundance: Both of these squads need to win here to keep playoff dreams alive. The Doggers still have the edge in this one, though. 1 p.m. (Lin 4-3)
Lusk at Pine Bluffs: I think we can say that there might not be a lot of points scored in this one — these two teams have combined to allow just 63 points this season. (Of course, 44 of those were to Southeast.) 7:30 p.m. (Lus 25-6)
Riverside at Shoshoni: Have I mentioned recently just how much I hate picking 1A West games this year? 6 p.m. (Rsd 11-5)
Southeast at Normative Services: The Cyclones have never lost to the Wolves. And they’ve outscored them 123-8 the past two seasons. 6 p.m. (SE 6-0) (Edit: This game will be played in Sheridan, not Casper.)
Wind River at Saratoga: Have I mentioned recently just how much I hate picking 1A West games this year? 3:30 p.m. (WR 6-2)
Wyoming Indian at Burlington: Have I mentioned recently just how much I hate picking 1A West games this year? 3 p.m. (Brl 14-4)
Class 1A six-man
Dubois at Ten Sleep: The Pioneers have oh-so-gently reminded the rest of six-man that they’re still here and still a threat to win a bunch of games this fall. Don’t think Dubois doesn’t know that, though. 3 p.m. (Dub 11-4)
Hulett at Midwest: It’s weird for this old Oiler to think of this as a nonconference game; nevertheless, the Oilers have won three in a row since falling to Dubois in Week 1 and that momentum should keep growing. 7 p.m. (Mid 27-17-1)
Meeteetse at Kaycee: The Buckaroos had a tough loss last week but should rebound nicely in this conference showdown against a struggling Longhorn team. 3 p.m. (Kay 2-0)
Snake River at Hanna: There was a time, maybe like in March or May or even July, when this game looked like a lot of fun, being the rematch of last year’s title game and all. Not so much anymore. 3 p.m. (Han 7-2)
Interstate
Upton at Hill City, S.D.: The short explanation? It’s Hill City’s homecoming. 6:30 p.m. (Upt 10-2)
Saturday
Class 1A six-man
Guernsey at Farson: A long trip for the Vikings might just swing the advantage to the Pronghorns in what looks like a fairly even game on paper. On paper. 2 p.m. (Gue 3-0)
Open: Wright.

How about your thoughts, picks, guidance for the Week 5 slate? Post some thoughts below and we can talk a little bit about high school football at the regular season’s just-past-halfway point.

–patrick