Note: This is the second of a three-part series examining what Wyoming’s high school sports scene might look like in nine years. For Part 1, click here.

Welcome to 2023. Wyoming is booming. Mineral prices are steady and rising, giving the state a consistent flow of cash. The state has reinvested this cash flow into education, but with a certain mandate: smaller is better.

With that in mind, the state legislature passed legislation that said any community with an elementary school but without its own high school should have its own, as long as that school would support at least 25 students in 9-12. The state also passed legislation that said no community could have one high school have a 9-12 population larger than 2,000 students. In addition, all existing high schools are given the freedom to remain open no matter their student population.

In this dream scenario, every community that had the chance to build a high school took the opportunity. In all, 11 new high schools joined the state — and in the process, 11 new schools’ athletic programs came under the jurisdiction of the Wyoming High School Activities Association. Things are about to change for Wyoming’s high school sports landscape.

Bold schools are new; italicized schools had their enrollments affected by the new schools:

1. Rock Springs, 1,901
2/3/4. Cheyenne Central/East/South, 1,534
5/6. Gillette/Gillette Enzi, 1,457 (lost students to 4J)
7/8/9. Kelly Walsh/Natrona/Casper Mountain, 1,440
10. Laramie, 1,302
11. Sheridan, 1,136
12. Evanston, 920
13. Riverton, 911
14. Green River, 905
15. Jackson, 754 (lost students to Wilson, Alta, Kelly)
16. Cody, 667
17. Powell, 596
18. Rawlins, 582 (lost students to Sinclair)
19. Douglas, 556
20. Worland, 454
21. Lander, 426
22. Afton, 385 (lost students to Thayne)
23. Thayne, 384
24. Buffalo, 363
25. Pinedale, 343
26. Torrington, 339
27. Wheatland, 312
28. Lyman, 255
29. Mountain View, 248
30. Newcastle, 244
31. Lovell, 237
32. Kemmerer, 234
33. Glenrock, 230
34. Moorcroft, 196
35. Thermopolis, 179
36. Tongue River, 173
37. Big Piney, 169 (lost students to LaBarge)
38. Greybull, 162
39. Wright, 161
40. Wyoming Indian, 156
41. Wilson, 154
42. Burns, 132 (lost students to Carpenter)
43. Sundance, 120
44. Wind River, 119
45. Lusk, 118
46. Big Horn, 117
47. Shoshoni, 117
48. Rocky Mountain, 104
49. Saratoga, 90
50. Riverside, 86
51. Pine Bluffs, 81 (lost students to Albin)
52. Upton, 80
53. Lingle, 79
54. Southeast, 77
55. NSI, 76
56. Cokeville, 75
57. St. Stephens, 70
58. Burlington, 68
59. Hanna, 66
60. Guernsey, 64
61. Snake River, 62
62. Carpenter, 55
63. Encampment, 53
64. Dubois, 50
65. Midwest, 49
66. Kaycee, 45
67. Farson, 44
68. Albin, 42
69. Hulett, 38
70. LaBarge, 37
71. Alta, 34
72. Meeteetse, 29
73. Kelly, 27
74. Arvada-Clearmont, 26
75. Ten Sleep, 25
76. 4J, 25
77. Sinclair, 25
78. Chugwater, 20
79. Rock River, 17
80. Glendo, 12

In this scenario, two large schools — one in Gillette, one in Casper — open to meet the “fewer than 2,000” mandate. Star Valley splits to form two smaller 3A schools, one in Afton and one in Thayne. A 2A-sized school opens in Wilson, west of Jackson, and small schools open (or re-open) in Carpenter, Albin, LaBarge, Alta, Kelly, Sinclair and at the 4J school southwest of Gillette.

With more large schools, the WHSAA expands Class 4A football from 10 to 12 schools and adds conference play, but the remaining classifications stay at their current numbers. These conferences are built on the assumption that schools with 40 or more students will add football and join into their respective classifications.

Football conferences
Class 4A North: Gillette, Gillette Enzi, Kelly Walsh, Natrona, Casper Mountain, Sheridan.
Class 4A South: Rock Springs, Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Laramie, Evanston.
Class 3A East: Riverton, Rawlins, Douglas, Worland, Lander, Buffalo.
Class 3A West: Green River, Jackson, Cody, Powell, Afton, Thayne.
(Or instead, a 3A North of Riverton, Cody, Powell, Douglas, Worland and Buffalo and a 3A South of Green River, Jackson, Rawlins, Lander, Afton and Thayne.)
Class 2A East: Torrington, Wheatland, Newcastle, Glenrock, Moorcroft, Thermopolis, Tongue River.
Class 2A West: Pinedale, Lyman, Mountain View, Lovell, Kemmerer, Big Piney, Greybull.
Class 1A 11-man Northeast: Wright, Sundance, Big Horn, Upton.
Class 1A 11-man Southeast: Burns, Lusk, Pine Bluffs, Lingle*, Southeast*.
Class 1A 11-man Northwest: Wind River, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Riverside, Burlington*.
Class 1A 11-man Southwest: Wyoming Indian, Wilson, Saratoga, Cokeville*.
Class 1A six-man East: NSI, Guernsey, Carpenter, Midwest, Kaycee, Albin, Hulett, Rock River.
Class 1A six-man West: St. Stephens, Hanna, Snake River, Dubois, Farson, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep.

*-indicates schools opting up to 11-man from six-man.

Other sports see even more radical change. The WHSAA, realizing the large number of larger schools, expands 4A to 16 teams, but keeps 3A at 16 and 2A at 20. At 16 schools, 4A elects to go to quadrants, under the “smaller is better” mantra.

Conferences for other sports
Class 4A Northeast: Gillette, Gillette Enzi, Casper Mountain, Sheridan.
Class 4A Southeast: Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Laramie.
Class 4A Northwest: Kelly Walsh, Natrona, Riverton, Cody.
Class 4A Southwest: Rock Springs, Evanston, Green River, Jackson.
Class 3A Northeast: Worland, Lander, Buffalo, Newcastle.
Class 3A Southeast: Rawlins, Douglas, Torrington, Wheatland.
Class 3A Northwest: Powell, Afton, Thayne, Lovell.
Class 3A Southwest: Pinedale, Lyman, Mountain View, Kemmerer.
Class 2A Northeast: Moorcroft, Tongue River, Sundance, Big Horn, Upton.
Class 2A Southeast: Glenrock, Wright, Burns, Lusk, Pine Bluffs.
Class 2A Northwest: Thermopolis, Greybull, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Riverside.
Class 2A Southwest: Big Piney, Wyoming Indian, Wilson, Wind River, Saratoga.
Class 1A Northeast: NSI, Midwest, Kaycee, Hulett, Arvada-Clearmont, 4J.
Class 1A Southeast: Lingle, Southeast, Guernsey, Glendo, Carpenter, Albin, Rock River, Chugwater.
Class 1A Northwest: Burlington, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep, St. Stephens, Dubois, Alta, Kelly.
Class 1A Southwest: Cokeville, Hanna, Snake River, Encampment, Farson, LaBarge, Sinclair.

Even completely maxed out, Wyoming caps at 80 high schools. A couple more could be stretched out here — Rozet Elementary pulls from eastern reaches of Gillette and would be at 204 students, while Poison Spider tugs on western Casper and could be a high school with 98 students, including students from other rural western Natrona elementaries. Still, the state is still well short of the number of high schools seen in neighboring states.

But this comes about only with financial excess. What happens if Wyoming goes through a bust the next 10 years instead of a boom?

Tomorrow: What if: Wyoming reduces its high school options?

–patrick

Note: This is the first of a three-part series examining what Wyoming’s high school sports scene might look like in nine years.

Welcome to 2023. Wyoming is getting along fine. Mineral prices are consistent but not enough to give the state cause to expand its option. The state’s been careful with its money, and issued a mandate on high school construction: nothing brand new, but nothing shut down.

After all, Wyoming has entered an unprecedented level of stability for its high schools.

As of now, the last Wyoming high school to close was Albin in 2003. The 11-year gap since Wyoming’s last high school closure is the state’s longest such gap since at least World War II — and may be the state’s longest such streak, ever.

Since Wyoming’s last two-year high school closed in 1951, here’s when public high schools around the state have closed:

1954: Manville
1956: Ranchester/Dayton (to form Tongue River)
1958: Egbert, McFadden, Reliance, Rozet
1961: Elk Mountain
1962: Superior
1963: Sunrise
1966: Hawk Springs/Veteran/Yoder (to form Goshen Hole)
1969: Morton/Pavillion (to form Wind River), Hillsdale
1971: Carpenter
sometime in the 1970s (exact date unknown): Arvada, Fort Laramie
1980: Huntley/Goshen Hole (to form Southeast)
1983: Cowley/Deaver-Frannie/Byron (to form Rocky Mountain)
1987: Basin/Manderson (to form Riverside)
1992: LaGrange
1997: Jeffrey City
1998: Medicine Bow
2003: Albin

However, the state has by far closed more high schools than it has opened. In the same time period, five new public high schools have opened in Wyoming, and three of them (Cheyenne East in 1960, Cheyenne South in 2009 and Kelly Walsh in 1965) have been in the state’s population centers. The only other two public schools to open in that time were Wyoming Indian (1972) and Wright (1983). In short, it’s been 31 years since a small Wyoming town has opened its own high school, and none are on the horizon.

Now, the question: Can Wyoming reach an even 20 years (2023 in our dream scenario) without losing or adding another high school?

If so, this is how the state’s enrollments would look in 2023, based on this fall’s K-3 enrollment provided at the Wyoming Department of Education website.

Enrollments for Lusk and Rocky Mountain have been adjusted to account for virtual enrollment; enrollment for Wyoming Indian has been adjusted per the WHSAA’s standard WIHS allowance; enrollments for Casper and Cheyenne have been split evenly among those schools.

Keep in mind that elementary enrollment is usually quite a bit larger than eventual high school enrollment, due to dropouts and other factors.

1. Gillette, 2,938
2/3. Kelly Walsh/Natrona: 2,160
4. Rock Springs, 1,901
5/6/7. Cheyenne Central/East/South, 1,534
8. Laramie, 1,302
9. Sheridan, 1,136
10. Jackson, 969 (935 with Alta Elementary students removed)
11. Evanston, 920
12. Riverton, 911
13. Green River, 905
14. Star Valley, 769
15. Cody, 667
16. Rawlins, 607
17. Powell, 596
18. Douglas, 556
19. Worland, 454
20. Lander, 426
21. Buffalo, 363
22. Pinedale, 343
23. Torrington, 339
24. Wheatland, 312
25. Lyman, 255
26. Mountain View, 248
27. Newcastle, 244
28. Lovell, 237
29. Kemmerer, 234
30. Glenrock, 230
31. Big Piney, 206
32. Moorcroft, 196
33. Burns, 187
34. Thermopolis, 179
35. Tongue River, 173
36. Greybull, 162
37. Wright, 161
38. Wyoming Indian, 156 (adjusted per WHSAA guidelines)
39. Pine Bluffs, 123
40. Sundance, 120
41. Wind River, 119
42. Lusk, 118
43. Big Horn, 117
44. Shoshoni, 117
45. Rocky Mountain, 104
46. Saratoga, 90
47. Riverside, 86
48. Upton, 80
49. Lingle, 79
50. Southeast, 77
51. NSI, 76
52. Cokeville, 75
53. St. Stephens, 70
54. Burlington, 68
55. Hanna, 66
56. Guernsey, 64
57. Snake River, 62
58. Encampment, 53
59. Dubois, 50
60. Midwest, 49
61. Kaycee, 45
62. Farson, 44
63. Hulett, 38
64. Meeteetse, 29
65. Arvada-Clearmont, 26
66. Ten Sleep, 25
67. Chugwater, 20
68. Rock River, 17
69. Glendo, 12

+++

Using these enrollments as guidelines, we can take a peek into what the classifications and potential conferences for Wyoming might look like in 2023. With no changes in the number of schools, there wouldn’t be any reason to change the classification cutoffs…:

Football conferences
Class 4A: Gillette, Kelly Walsh, Natrona, Rock Springs, Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Laramie, Sheridan, Jackson.
Class 3A East: Riverton, Rawlins, Douglas, Lander, Buffalo, Worland.
Class 3A West: Evanston, Green River, Star Valley, Cody, Powell, Pinedale.
(Or a 3A North with Cody, Powell, Riverton, Douglas, Buffalo and Worland and a 3A South with Evanston, Green River, Star Valley, Pinedale, Rawlins and Lander.)
Class 2A East: Torrington, Wheatland, Newcastle, Glenrock, Moorcroft, Burns, Tongue River.
Class 2A West: Lyman, Mountain View, Lovell, Kemmerer, Big Piney, Thermopolis, Greybull.
Class 1A 11-man East: Wright, Pine Bluffs, Sundance, Lusk, Big Horn, Upton, Lingle, Southeast.
Class 1A 11-man West: Wyoming Indian, Wind River, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Saratoga, Riverside, Cokeville, Burlington.
(Cokeville and Burlington opting up from six-man.)
Class 1A six-man East: NSI, Hanna, Guernsey, Midwest, Kaycee, Hulett, Rock River.
Class 1A six-man West: St. Stephens, Snake River, Dubois, Farson, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep.

Looks familiar… as Jackson and Evanston switch in 4A/3A and Torrington and Pinedale switch in 3A/2A, the conferences may see some minor adjustments, but nothing drastic.

Here’s what the conferences could look like for other sports:

Conferences for other sports
Class 4A East
: Gillette, Cheyenne Central, Cheyenne East, Cheyenne South, Laramie, Sheridan.
Class 4A West: Kelly Walsh, Natrona, Rock Springs, Jackson, Evanston, Riverton.
Class 3A East: Rawlins, Douglas, Worland, Lander, Buffalo, Torrington, Wheatland, Newcastle.
Class 3A West: Green River, Star Valley, Cody, Powell, Pinedale, Lyman, Mountain View, Lovell.
Class 2A Northeast: Moorcroft, Tongue River, Sundance, Big Horn, Upton.
Class 2A Southeast: Glenrock, Burns, Wright, Pine Bluffs, Lusk.
Class 2A Northwest: Thermopolis, Greybull, Shoshoni, Rocky Mountain, Riverside.
Class 2A Southwest: Kemmerer, Big Piney, Wyoming Indian, Wind River, Saratoga.
Class 1A Northeast: NSI, Midwest, Kaycee, Hulett, Arvada-Clearmont.
Class 1A Southeast: Lingle, Southeast, Guernsey, Chugwater, Rock River, Glendo.
Class 1A Northwest: St. Stephens, Burlington, Dubois, Meeteetse, Ten Sleep.
Class 1A Southwest: Cokeville, Hanna, Snake River, Encampment, Farson.

The biggest changes here are Jackson to 4A, Green River to 3A, and Glenrock to 2A; the other changes between 3A/2A and 2A/1A have been seen before.

Based on the elementary enrollments, the biggest changes in the next 10 years appear to be coming in some expected places. The biggest jumps look to be in Jackson and Gillette, and that could cause some pretty dramatic shifts in the 4A and 3A classifications.

But what if Wyoming bucked its recent trend of closing schools and actually went the OTHER way — by opening some new schools?

Tomorrow: What if: Wyoming expands its high school options?

–patrick

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